For example, I often hear investors (even investment and tax professionals) summarize the core benefit as being due to ?tax deferral.? In my view, however, deferring taxes is not the primary benefit of using retirement accounts. This article highlights what I believe to be the real golden goose behind retirement accounts.
Although the major indexes finished the day mixed, DJIA was modestly lower while S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed modestly higher, all three bullishly remained above their respective 50-day moving averages for a second day. Further signs of strength can be seen in advance-decline lines (plotted in the above chart). S&P 500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ and NYSE Comp advance-decline lines have all been moving higher during the month of April. During yesterday’s trading, April 17, the NYSE Comp advance-decline line actually closed at a new high for the first time since late January.
Digging deeper into the historical performance of April reveals two distinctly different patterns. This April?s market performance, through the close of trading yesterday, is represented in the first chart below. In the second chart is April?s historical performance over the last 21-year period and in the third chart is April?s historical performance in midterm years since 1950.?
Here is a link to the paper, ?Reach for Safety,? The results are hypothetical results and are NOT an indicator of future results and do NOT represent returns that any investor actually attained. Bonds with higher option-adjusted spreads (OAS), all else equal, should have higher expected returns as these are expected to be riskier investments.
A quick lesson on trendlines and what they can tell us about market dynamics. First, notice the light little trendline that ends in late 2016. The line may not cut prices in between those attachment points.
The world?s appetite for streaming content seems insatiable, and somehow Netflix is fending off competition not only in the US but also on the international stage. The real story, however, and the major question for long-term investors is whether there exists earnings leverage within Netflix?s business model to justify its valuation. The company?s operating margin expanded to 12.1% during the first quarter of 2018, up 2.4 percentage points over the prior-year period, but even with the improved levels of profitability, cash flow from operations came in at -$237 million (negative $237 million) during the quarter, while free cash flow settled in at -$287 million (negative $287 million).
A growing number of investors are seeking to construct portfolios that simultaneously capture the 1) long-term?factor premia ( value, momentum, size etc.) and 2) have attractive ESG profiles. Is the relationship between ESG and factor stable over time? How should blended ESG-factor portfolios be constructed?
When will the high volatility in the stock market come to an end? Although that seems like a good question, it may be the wrong one to ask for investors who are only worried about the end of the stock market correction. April could break the string of back-to-back losses for global stocks seen in February and March of this year, if seasonal patterns hold.
The global economic and financial landscape has rarely been better but the market pundits and media would rather you think differently. The U.S. government passed tax reform last year to be effective in 2018.
April option expiration is generally bullish across the board with solid gains on the last day of the week, the entire week and the week after. Since 1982, DJIA and S&P 500 have both advanced 23 times in 36 years on expiration day with an average gain of just under 0.2%. Expiration week as a whole has a slightly more bullish track record over the past 36 years to expiration day.
After more than a decade, the Vietnamese stock market is back at all-time highs. One of the unsung market stories of 2017 was the long-term breakout, or near-breakout, action in many emerging markets. This included several of the Asian??Tiger Cubs?, e.g.,?Indonesia, Thailand and The Philippines.
Since 1930, the S&P 500 has traded a grand total of 148 Friday 13th across all twelve months. The overall track record is 80 up days and 68 down (or unchanged) days with a bearish average loss of 0.04%. The worst Friday 13th loss was 6.12% in October 1989.
It’s beginning to look a lot like Ninety-FourEverywhere you goTake a look at the Dow and TechTrading sideways once againWith volatility and earnings all aglowIt’s beginning to look a lot like Ninety-FourStocks in every homeBut the prettiest sight to see, is the Rates that will beBack to normal soonAn inflation rate the works and an economy that shootsIs the wish of Powell and Trump …
Most people think that to generate eye-popping returns, you have to pump lots of money into small, ?risky? The more risk you take, the greater your potential returns? It?s true that owning volatile stocks can result in big gains (as well as big losses, if you?re not careful).
?news events sent Russian stocks plunging below key support levels – but possibly to a test of more important support levels. One of the more resilient equity markets during the post-January correction has been Russia. On Monday, following news of U.S. sanctions against the country, Russian stocks got hammered to the tune of about 10%.
Professors John Graham and Campbell Harvey consistently put out great research. In their recent piece, the authors describe what a broad cross-section of U.S. CFOs think about the expected equity risk premium. Not sure what the takeaway is on the estimates because 1) everyone is predicting the same thing and 2) the CFOs were predicting a low premium a few years back and the S&P 500 and has rocketed.
Compared to the typical April pattern over the last 21 years, midterm year Aprils exhibit a noticeably different pattern. In midterm Aprils (visible in the charts below), the month is strong until just after mid-month at which point it rolls over and closes weakly.? Mid-April is also a clear inflection point in the full-year seasonal patterns.
Despite extreme daily volatility, the stock market has been mired in a historically tight range. If it seems as though the stock market has been crazy volatile lately without really going anywhere, you?re not imagining things. Over the 2 weeks (i.e., 10 days) through last Friday (4/6), the S&P 500 (SPX) averaged a daily trading range of 2.3%.