The U.S financial markets rose to new high last week while overseas markets rallied too. Despite all of the pessimistic rhetoric and fear in the marketplace, the OECB only lowered its global economic growth projections for 2018 and 2019 by 0.1% and 0.2% respectively to 3.7% which is pretty darn good.
The week after September options expiration week, next week, has a dreadful history of declines especially since 1990. The week after September options expiration week has been a nearly constant source of pain with only a few meaningful exceptions over the past 28 years. Substantial and across the board gains have occurred just three times: 1998, 2001, 2010 and 2016 while many more weeks were hit with sizable losses.
You’ve probably heard the phrases “buyer’s market” and “seller’s market” but do you know the difference between the two? In a buyer’s market, there is plenty of housing inventory on the market and low competition for each listing. In a buyer’s market, conditions are favorable to those who want to buy a home rather than those who are selling homes.
DJIA and S&P 500 moved closer to their respective all-time closing highs today, but NASDAQ and Russell 2000 did not partake in today’s rally. This is basically the exact opposite of what transpired in August when NASDAQ and Russell 2000 were leading. In the following chart today’s mixed performance is confirmed by the mixed advance/decline lines for the NYSE Comp, NASDAQ, Russell 2000 and S&P 500.
Don’t Miss the Last Great Buying Opportunity of the Decade! Join Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac and Almanac Investor and Chief Market Strategist for Probabilities Fund Management LLC, for this no-nonsense, candid webinar that will fully prepare you for the “Sweet Spot’ of the last Four-Year Cycle of this decade. You will get his straightforward analysis of best three-quarter span of the Four-Year Cycle.
Emerging markets have delivered solid returns for investors over the past 30 years, with the index delivering an annualized total return of 10.06% since the inception of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index at the end of 1987 through the end of August 2018. This exactly matches the 10.06% total return of the U.S. stock market over the same period, measured by the MSCI USA Index. This characteristic of emerging markets is one reason they make up a relatively small part of diversified portfolios, generally speaking.
September’s option expiration week is up 61.1% of the time for S&P 500 and NASDAQ since 1982. DJIA has a slightly weaker track record with gains 55.6% of the time. However, the week has suffered several sizable losses. The worst loss followed the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. In the last fifteen years, NASDAQ has the best record during September’s option expiration week, up thirteen times. Triple-Witching Friday had been firm with all three indices advancing every year 2004 to 2011, but S&P 500 has been down five of the last six since and DJIA and NASDAQ four of six.
In “Seven Habits of Highly Effective People” Stephen Covey, globally renowned leadership coach and business leader explains that in order to be a successful you need to develop and maintain key habits. Let’s state for the record that every administration has failed using statesmanship and negotiations to change unfair trade policies.
Stephen Covey, the globally renowned leadership coach and businessman, wrote a book “Seven Habits of Highly Effective People.” He explains that great leaders need to be clear about their vision starting with the current reality then putting together a strategy to go from where they are to their desired outcome. Let’s state for the record that every administration has failed using statesmanship and negotiations to change unfair trade policies.
There are a lot of opinions being trotted around ten years after the financial crisis. A lot of them are self-serving, to deflect blame from areas that they want to protect. What you are going to read here are my opinions. You can fault me for this: I will defend my opinions here, which haven’t changed much since the financial crisis. That said, I will simplify my opinions down to a few categories to make it simpler to remember, because there were a LOT of causes for the crisis. For different reasons, these two central banks kept interest rates too low, touching off a boom in risk assets in the USA. The Fed kept interest rates too low for too long 2001-2004. The Fed explicitly wanted to juice the economy via the housing sector after the dot-com bust, and the withdrawal of liquidity post-Y2K. Also, the slow, predictable way that they tightened rates did little to end speculation, because long rates did not rise, and in some cases even fell.
Are you facing a bull or bear market? During bull markets, prices are either already rising or investors are feeling confident that they’ll see an increase in the prices of stocks, bonds, commodities or a different group of securities. A bear market is a long-term trend that leaves investors feeling “bearish” or pessimistic about the future outlook of financial markets.
The Sweet Spot is the best consecutive three-quarter span of the Four-Year Presidential Election Cycle beginning with Q4 of the midterm year and going through Q2 of the pre-election year. This three-quarter span has posted gains of 20.4%, 21.1% and 32.0% respectively for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ since 1949. You will learn about relevant market seasonality and tactical seasonal trading strategies beyond “Best Six Months” and “Sell in May.” I will show you how to capitalize on the sweet spot of the four-year cycle that begins in the fourth quarter of 2018 and talk all about market seasonality, how we rotate in and out of sectors with the highest probability for maximum returns using fundamental and technical analysis in conjunction with seasonal and cyclical trading strategies, economic trends and historical patterns.
More major global equity indices have joined the ranks of those testing key bull market trendlines. Last week, we highlighted the plethora of major stock market indices that were testing (breaking?) key uptrend lines across the European region. As this week’s edition of #TrendlineWednesday on Twitter points out, the “trend” of important global equity indices undergoing key trendline tests has expanded.
As of today’s close DJIA is up 5.1% year-to-date, S&P 500 is up 8.0% and NASDAQ is up a solid 15.5%. All three indexes are just a few percentage points below their respective all-time highs. S&P 500 and NASDAQ were at their highs in August while DJIA still has not cleared its January high.
“Sour Grapes” is my response to all the complaining about central banks (“CBs”) distorting markets, ruining price discovery, and leading their countries into the hellscape of negative real rates. Indeed, if global financial markets were a palace, the floors would be sparkling clean: the central banks have been using their counterparties as a mop for almost a decade. In fact, they are giving you real assets in exchange for it!
CBS announced late Sunday that it has reached an agreement with longtime CEO Les Moonves that will see the executive exit the company he has led for the last 15 years, effective immediately. The CBS board also reached a settlement to end its nasty legal fight with its controlling stakeholder, National Amusements Inc. In May, CBS filed a suit against Shari Redstone and National Amusements, a family-run business that controls roughly 80 percent of the voting power in both CBS and Viacom. Joe Ianniello, who has served as the company’s COO since 2013, will take over as president and acting CEO, while the board searches for a permanent successor.
General Mills, Inc. is a leading manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer foods sold through retail stores. During the previous fiscal year, it generated $15.7 Billion in sales and $2.2 Billion in free cash flow (after interest expense).
Searching for finance professionals on general job boards can eat up months of your time, which could cause you to miss the opportunity to hire the best person for the job. If you’re looking for a finance freelancer, you have even less time to spare, which means you’ll need to start looking at the right job posting sites for employers from the very beginning of your hiring journey. You’ll need a few specialized job posting sites to find the perfect full-time finance professional or part-time financial consultant for your company.
If that’s the way you feel about the term “bull market,” here’s your chance to finally learn what it is and why it’s associated with investing in the stock market. Bull markets indicate that the prices of a group of assets have been increasing for a period of time or are likely to go up soon. In fact, the longest bull market in American history for stocks lasted for 4,494 days and ran from December 1987 to March 2000.
DJIA is a slightly higher, but S&P 500 and NASDAQ are not. Looking back at past strong August performance there is a pattern of below average performance in September. The dividing line for “strong” August performance was drawn at each index’s respective performance this August.