• VIX “Spiking” to 12-13 is not a reason to dump stocks
    Almanac Trader16 hours ago

    VIX “Spiking” to 12-13 is not a reason to dump stocks

    Recent market gains have been accompanied by a “spike” in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). In percentage terms, the increase in VIX would appear to be quite significant, but in absolute terms and within the context of history (even recent six month history), there likely is little cause for concern. For starters, VIX was near all-time lows on January 4 with an intra-day low of 8.92.

  • Stocks And Volatility Both On The Rise -- Who's Right?
    Dana Lyons' Tumblr18 hours ago

    Stocks And Volatility Both On The Rise -- Who's Right?

    In the most recent portion of the relentless stock market rally, stocks have had plenty of company among other assets. Among those other areas joining stocks in this recent rally, are bond yields, foreign currencies, crude oil, precious metals and volatility expectations. Typically, stock volatility expectations, e.g., the S&P 500 Volatility Index, orVIX, tend to move opposite the direction of stocks.

  • The One-Day Pre-earnings Momentum Trade in Boeing (NYSE:BA)
    Capital Market Laboratories2 days ago

    The One-Day Pre-earnings Momentum Trade in Boeing (NYSE:BA)

    Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) Date Published: 2018-01-17 Disclaimer The results here are provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation. PREFACE Boeing Co (NYSE:BA) may be an industrial company, but its price has behaved like a momentum technology stock. Check out this two-year chart: With that ride has come the same pre-earnings bullish sentiment that so many of the tech darlings have seen as well, like Nvidia, Microsoft and many others.. ...

  • Jared Dillian2 days ago

    Many Investors Get Rich Out of Sheer Luck

    Talk about dating yourself—the old-timers will recall that Wang was actually an AMEX stock, the old curb exchange. The economics class was full of jocks, including most of the guys I was on the wrestling team with, along with lots of the popular girls. Upon reflection, all of this took place in late 1991/early 1992, and the stock market wasn’t doing so hot.

  • On the Migration of Stock
    The Aleph Blog2 days ago

    On the Migration of Stock

    This should be a brief article.  I remember back in 1999 to early 2000 how P&C insurance stocks, and other boring slower-growth industries were falling in price despite growing net worth, and reasonable earnings.  I was working for The St. Paul at the time (a Property & Casualty Insurer), and for an investment actuary like me, who grew up in the life insurance business it was interesting to see the different philosophy of the industry.  Shorter-duration products make competition more obvious, making downturns uglier. The market in 1999-2000 got narrow.  Few groups and few stocks were leading the rise.  Performance-conscious investors, amateur and professional, servants of the “Church of What’s Working Now,” sold their holdings in the slower growing companies to buy the shares of faster growing companies, with little attention to valuation differences.

  • 2018 Bull Market - This goes way beyond tax reform!
    David Nelson, CFA3 days ago

    2018 Bull Market - This goes way beyond tax reform!

    2018 Bull Market – This goes way beyond tax reform!By David Nelson, CFA Just 9 trading days into the year 2018 is one of the best starts I’ve seen in my career. I’m sure everyone is getting out their Trader’s Almanac but for now let’s just agree it’s been good. Of course, the next question is how long will the good times roll? 2017 was obviously a good year but at least from my vantage point the real acceleration started in September as Tax…

  • On a Letter from an Old Friend
    The Aleph Blog3 days ago

    On a Letter from an Old Friend

    In my portfolio, I’m carrying extra cash and moving fairly aggressively into gold. Also, on the fixed income side, I’ve been selling HY [DM: High Yield, aka “Junk”] bonds, shortening duration, and buying floating rate bank loans. The banks are in good shape, so the coming troubles should not be as great as during the financial crisis, as long as nothing bizarre is going on in the repo markets.

  • Here’s the Key Economic Indicator You Should Watch in 2018
    Patrick Watson4 days ago

    Here’s the Key Economic Indicator You Should Watch in 2018

    The Fed is hiking interest rates because its experts believe the economy is close to “full employment.” And the Phillips Curve says wages should start rising any minute now. If qualified workers are so hard to find, why don’t employers offer higher pay to attract more?

  • The Intrinsic Value of Eaton Corporation PLC
    Stig Brodersen4 days ago

    The Intrinsic Value of Eaton Corporation PLC

    Eaton Corporation PLC is multinational power management company. Since its founding in 1911, the company has grown to become one of the world’s largest power management companies with 96,000 employees and business interests in 175 countries. Eaton Corporation PLC is currently a member of the Fortune 500 list with a market cap of $35.9 Billion.

  • IS SHILLER’s PE A HELPFUL OR CONFUSING TIMING TOOL FOR STOCKS?
    Chris Ciovacco's Tumblr6 days ago

    IS SHILLER’s PE A HELPFUL OR CONFUSING TIMING TOOL FOR STOCKS?

    When a similar question was asked about standard price-earnings ratios in 2017, based on the chart below, it was relatively easy to determine their utility from a market-timing perspective.  In this analysis, we examine the Shiller PE or the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio (CAPE).    If we study similar historical environments, was the Shiller PE helpful?    Does the Shiller PE negate the recent long-term bullish breakouts in stocks?

  • January Expiration Week Choppy Last 19 Years
    Almanac Trader7 days ago

    January Expiration Week Choppy Last 19 Years

    Over the past thirty-five years, since 1983, the S&P 500’s performance during January’s option expiration week has been a mixed bag. Friday has been up 19 and down 16, and the entire week has been down three times for every two times it has been up. However, in the past nineteen years (1999-2017), the S&P 500’s performance has taken a turn for the worse with expiration day falling ten times with an average loss of .18% and the full-week declining 14 times with an average loss of 1.01%. DJIA and NASDAQ have similar track records since 1999.

  • Can You Micro Invest Your Way to Wealth?
    SmartAsset7 days ago

    Can You Micro Invest Your Way to Wealth?

    One common misconception about investing is that you need a big bankroll to get started. Some financial technology companies are challenging that notion by bringing the concept of micro investing to the masses. The idea is simple: Instead of investing large chunks of cash, you can do it in small increments.

  • Wesley R. Gray, PhD8 days ago

    Five Investing Podcasts You Should Listen To

    Meb Faber is the portfolio manager at Cambria Investment Management, an advisory firm focused on quantitative asset management and alternative investments. Meb has an impressive podcast, The Meb Faber Show, which covers a wide range of investing-related topics, and features a variety of fascinating guests. One of my favorites episodes included Rob Arnott, the CEO of Research Affiliates, and their in-depth discussion of value investing and overall market valuations.

  • Quiz- What Would You Do With This Opportunity?
    Kimble Charting8 days ago

    Quiz- What Would You Do With This Opportunity?

    This asset has been hit hard over the past 9-years. Despite the rally of late, it is still 90% below its old highs.

  • Wesley R. Gray, PhD8 days ago

    The History of ETFs: Perspectives from ETF Legends, Reggie Browne and Arlene Rockefeller

    ETFs have grown fast, yet there are still some opponents of the structure. However, the general story by ETF opponents has changed over the past 5 to 7 years.

  • Does Stocks' Fast Start Bode Well For Another Good Year?
    Dana Lyons' Tumblr9 days ago

    Does Stocks' Fast Start Bode Well For Another Good Year?

    Don’t get us wrong, when it comes to systematic trading strategies, few have the statistical chops to beat tried and true approaches based upon long-term seasonality tendencies. The same basic approaches and philosophies that have done so for the past several decades now.

  • The Value Effect and Macroeconomic Risk
    Wesley R. Gray, PhD10 days ago

    The Value Effect and Macroeconomic Risk

    It has been well-documented that value stocks have provided higher expected returns than growth stocks. The risk loadings of both high-B/M and low-P/E firms are substantially larger (and statistically significant) than the loadings of low-B/M firms with respect to each of the macroeconomic factors.

  • Brian Nelson's Tumblr10 days ago

    Finance: Nelson Talks His New Theory of the Stock Market

    Disclaimer: This video and any content within are for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Valuentum and Brian Nelson are not responsible for any errors or omissions or for results obtained from the use of this video or any content and accept no liability for how readers may choose to utilize the content. Assumptions, opinions, and estimates are based on our judgment as of the date of the article and are subject to change without notice. There is substantial risk of loss associated with investing in any financial instrument. ...

  • Brian Nelson's Tumblr10 days ago

    Is Visa the Best Company Ever?

    Visa’s business model is phenomenal and its competitive advantages among the best in the world. The company’s free cash flow generation is remarkable, and it alone covers its cash dividend payment by more than 5 times. There are few companies with higher levels of profitability than Visa’s, and even fewer that also have as strong of growth potential.

  • New Highs For This Emerging Market? It's About THAI-m
    Dana Lyons' Tumblr11 days ago

    New Highs For This Emerging Market? It's About THAI-m

    Today, we add another update to the list with our Chart Of The Day focusing on the Thai stock market. Back on September 1, we issued a premium post to members of The Lyons Share noting a potential major breakout in the SET: “The Best Opportunity In The Equity World Right Now?”.

  • Academic Research Insight: Yes, Departing Outside Directors Are Aware of Fraud Before They Resign
    Wesley R. Gray, PhD11 days ago

    Academic Research Insight: Yes, Departing Outside Directors Are Aware of Fraud Before They Resign

    Is the rate of turnover for outside directors unusually high either before fraud is discovered by the firm, or during its commission? Are there regularities in the characteristics of outside directors who depart during the period in which the financial fraud is committed? Are there regularities in board governance variables related to the turnover of outside directors for fraud firms?

  • Invest Accordingly!11 days ago

    RISK

    There are two ways to look at risk…up and down side.  Rarely in my 40 plus years of successfully managing hedge funds have I seen the global economic, financial and political landscape as positive as it is today. Byron Wien, Vice Chairman at Blackstone and my former partner and Co-CIO at Century Capital Associates, came out with his annual list of 10 surprises last week.

  • The Intrinsic Value of American Express
    Stig Brodersen13 days ago

    The Intrinsic Value of American Express

    American Express is a very successful company with a long history. What lies ahead for American Express, and is it undervalued at its current stock price of $99? American Express is a unique financial company which has been led by its well-known CEO Kenneth Chenault for the last sixteen years.

  • What I learned from a year back at the piano bench
    Market Snapshots14 days ago

    What I learned from a year back at the piano bench

    About ten years ago, I made a career change, left music completely, and focused on my finance career. Perhaps someone out there could derive pleasure from casual playing, but I knew that I would be unhappy playing casually (and, if we’re honest about it, very poorly) after I’d dedicated more than half of my life to developing significant skills. About a year ago, I made the decision to return to playing, not really knowing what the future would bring or how this would all fit together.