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Amy Coney Barrett's odds of becoming Trump's SCOTUS pick surge: Betting Giant

Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarkets Head of Political Markets joins Yahoo Finance's Zack Guzman to break down the latest betting odds on the 2020 election and more.

Video Transcript

ZACK GUZMAN: Well, President Trump still trails democratic nominee for president, Joe Biden, here in the polls. There are some interesting new updates in terms of what we've seen play out on the campaign trail as well as the update when it comes to Republican support for President Trump's plan to move full speed ahead with nominating a new Supreme Court justice. And on the latest front there, Republican Mitt Romney surprisingly coming out in support of those plans as well. Not a lot of people saw that happening, but still, President Trump's approval ratings, as well as his standing in the polls, still ties back to his handling here of the pandemic at hand, and betting markets are constantly updating the odds there.

And here now joining us with the latest when it comes to where bettors are putting their money in terms of President Trump's re-election chances is Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarket's Head of Political Markets, joins us now. And Sarbjit, I mean, how have things been trending, because it seems like you can basically throw out any poll that was from a couple weeks ago, because we're dealing with so many new things here, especially the Supreme Court drama playing out right now. So what are you seeing in the betting markets when it comes to Trump and Biden?

SARBJIT BAKHSHI: So on our five million pound next president market, we have Joe Biden at 55% to Donald Trump's 43%, which is more or less what it was last time I was on around the 10th of September, with Joe Biden simply increasing his lead by one point on that. What we're seeing with the Supreme Court is very interesting. We're seeing the whole makeup and balance of that Supreme Court shifting ever more conservative, and that kind of sounds an alarm bell for all kind of liberals or liberal leaning Americans that if they maybe want some balance and if Trump goes ahead with his pick for the Supreme Court that they may need to elect a democratic president to kind of right that balance in some way after they come in.

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, and that's kind of the question mark here is how that and the plans here to kind of move forward. We're going to hear the updates from Senate Leader McConnell later on today about how Republicans plan to move forward with those plans, but it does seem like they would now have the votes to approve a nominee going forward. When it comes to that, though, what are you seeing on the betting market for who that pick might be for the next Supreme Court Justice nominee from President Trump?

SARBJIT BAKHSHI: So on our Trump pick for the Supreme Court, we have Amy Coney Barrett at 63% and Barbara Lagoa at 21%, so it seems like it's Amy Coney Barrett's race to lose really. She's someone that was identified by Trump as someone he'd like to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg with come the time. She is a conservative. She's an originalist in terms of the interpretation of The Constitution, and she's someone who Trump really clearly favors.

Barbara Lagoa has been mentioned I think only once by Trump so far, but she comes from Florida, which is a key state for Trump. Trump needs to win. It's where Trump is registered to vote, and she's of a Cuban Hispanic background and maybe can bring those conservative Cubans on board in Florida and help him swing that state. So she has things going for her as well. She's not been mentioned as much, and I think that's reflected in our market and why she's only at 21% to Amy Coney Barrett's 63%, but those are the top two that we have traded at the moment.

ZACK GUZMAN: And Barrett had met with President Trump for hours there to chat things over, vetted supposedly, and do you think about how close a decision like this might be coming to the election, a lot of people here are saying that it could be a de facto running mate. You're so closely linked with the president by being this big choice, this big nominee, it becomes very important. And of course, we're going to see how these betting markets fluctuate as we get to that debate planned for next week. A lot of people are going to be watching that. But Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarket's Head of Political Markets, appreciate you coming back on. We'll have you back when we see those numbers change.