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Biden expands lead over Trump to win 2020 election: Betting Giant

Smarkets Head of Political Markets Sarbjit Bakhshi joins Yahoo Finance’s Zack Guzman to to break down the latest overseas betting odds in the 2020 race to the White House.

Video Transcript

ZACK GUZMAN: We are just 20 days from Election Day here in the US. And right now, bettors are putting their money where their mouth is on calling who will win the presidency, as well as who will gain control of both chambers of Congress. And here for more on what those numbers are saying, we're joined by Sarbjit Bakhshi, Smarkets head of political markets.

And Sarbjit, you were just telling me a little bit ago we saw Biden's odds hit a new all-time high for winning. What are you seeing play out now when you gauge how much money is being wagered?

SARBJIT BAKHSHI: So our next president market is always dramatic. Last time, we were only talking about it being $10 million. Now it's over $11 million. So we've just had a million dollars traded in this last week. Biden's price has been chaotic this week. It shot up to about 78%, his highest ever percentage that we've seen on the market and has recently just come down again to 68%, Trump at 32% of that market.

So, Biden still maintaining that lead and has this exuberance to his price sometimes. But that's being matched by exuberance on the other side, too. A lot of people who are supporting Trump and believe Trump could turn this around have a lot of faith in this market and are pumping Trump's price up and keeping those prices, more or less, stable at the moment. But definitely, Biden has initiative on this market.

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, well, what's interesting is the numbers have kind of tracked what we've seen play out in polls, too. Of course, you know, the national polls, you know, are different than what we could see play out in key swing states in the electoral college since that's the way we determine a winner here. But interesting to see those move in lockstep.

Also, on the other side, I wanted to ask you about what we're seeing for odds of Republicans holding onto control in the Senate because we're hearing more and more about a blue wave and how likely that might be. So what are you seeing play out when it comes to bettors wagering on that?

SARBJIT BAKHSHI: So under House and Senate controlled markets, we're showing the chance of a Democratic clean sweep-- that's the lower House and the upper House-- going to 61%. The chances of Republicans doing the same, 5%. And so we're seeing a real clear movement towards the idea that Democrats will take both houses come November.

The chance that things stay as they are, Democratic House and Republican Senate, is 40%, so not to be written off at this point. But the idea that they might flip with a Republican House and a Democratic Senate is only 1%, so should probably not think about that one for now.

But clearly, the traders are seeing this blue wave coming in. They feel confident enough to put down money on this market and support this proposition. So 61% for a Democratic clean sweep, that's in the House and in the Senate.

ZACK GUZMAN: Yeah, I mean, that blue wave, specifically, control in the Senate when it comes to Democrats, I mean, it's been a key driver over the last couple of days in some of the trading action that we've seen in marijuana stocks here as well, as more and more people might be putting a little bit more weight on that blue wave happening in just 20 days. But Sarbjit Bakhshi, appreciate you breaking down all the numbers for us. He is Smarkets head of political markets. Thanks again.