Jan.20 -- President Joe Biden said that his predecessor, Donald Trump, left him a “very generous letter” before leaving Washington ahead of his inauguration on Wednesday. Biden spoke in the Oval Office after signing three executive actions.
Jan.20 -- President Joe Biden said that his predecessor, Donald Trump, left him a “very generous letter” before leaving Washington ahead of his inauguration on Wednesday. Biden spoke in the Oval Office after signing three executive actions.
(Bloomberg) -- Commodity currencies are rising while haven assets decline as the U.S. Senate’s approval of a $1.9 trillion economic stimulus and a surge in China’s exports drive a risk-on bid in markets Monday.The Australian dollar and Norwegian krone led gains among major currencies while stocks in Asia advanced as Covid-19 relief legislation exceeded many Wall Street estimates. Yet increasing optimism for growth is also fueling concern about central banks curbing stimulus and borrowing costs rising, with benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edging higher in Asian trading.“Firmer U.S. data and the passage of President Biden’s $1.9 trillion fiscal bill by the Senate is helping to support markets, but stabilization may prove to be temporary,” said Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities in Singapore. “The Fed is not even close to stepping in to end the bond rout and yields may go higher.”Kotecha said the 10-year yield may reach 1.75% in the near term and 2% by year end. It rose two basis points to 1.59% at 9:30 a.m. in Singapore, putting it just short of the high reached Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data and around levels last seen in February 2020.While the relief measure still needs to go back to the House for a final vote expected Tuesday, economists are already boosting their forecasts for growth. Almost exactly a year after the spread of the coronavirus ripped its way through global markets, traders are betting that the rollout of vaccines and additional government stimulus will all but guarantee an economic recovery -- as well as faster inflation.Although on the surface the advance in Treasury yields is a sign of economic strength, the pace of the move also points to mounting concern that the Federal Reserve will have to raise rates sooner than expected to rein in surging inflation.Risk assets have seen pressure in the past few weeks even as officials like Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have played down concern that the recent surge in U.S. yields reflects expectations for an outsize breakout in inflation. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also did little last week to indicate that the central bank might step in to assuage concerns about rising inflation.(Updates with latest asset moves in third paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Central banks helped save the world economy from depression as the pandemic struck. Now they are dealing with the hard part: managing the recovery amid a difference of opinion with investors.Optimism that Covid-19 vaccines and continued government stimulus offer an escape from the worst health crisis in a century has sent bond yields soaring and pushed bets on rising inflation in the U.S. to the highest in a decade.That’s shifting the ground underneath monetary policy makers who promise to maintain rock bottom borrowing costs and cheap money well into the expansion. In the next two weeks, the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank as well as their counterparts in Japan, U.K, and Canada are all likely to reiterate those pledges, eager to secure a rebound in hiring and avoid the mistakes of the last crisis when some withdrew support too early.The risk now seems skewed the other way. While policy makers welcome a modest rise in bond yields as a signal of confidence in the economic outlook, they worry an unchecked jump would undercut recoveries. They argue any resurgence in inflation will be based on a temporary correction from last year’s slide and that high unemployment will continue to restrain price pressures.It’s a stark turnaround from a year ago, when the world powered down to fight the Covid-19 pandemic and central banks responded with what’s amounted to an unprecedented $9 trillion of monetary support.“Central banks are facing a new challenge,” said Rob Carnell, chief economist for Asia Pacific at ING Bank NV. “How do they keep justifying easy policy as the recovery continues and the inflation figures pick up?”Canada, ECBThe Bank of Canada is first up with a meeting on March 10 when policy makers are likely to indicate they plan to maintain plenty of stimulus well into any strong recovery. It’s a case that Governor Tiff Macklem laid out last month when he argued policy needs to help foster not only the immediate pickup but also facilitate virus-driven structural changes like digitalization.ECB President Christine Lagarde convenes officials the next day when updated forecasts will highlight how the euro-area economy is lagging the U.S. because of slow vaccine rollouts and extended virus restrictions. That puts the bloc at risk should higher global yields spill over into borrowing costs for companies and households.ECB policy makers have surprised investors by downplaying their concerns so far, saying their bond-buying program is flexible enough to address unwarranted tightening but failing to provide any evidence that they’re accelerating purchases. At the back of their minds though is likely to be the experience of 2011 when interest rates were raised twice to combat faster inflation despite a worsening financial crisis, only for the euro zone to slide into a double-dip recession.Powell PressureAt the Fed’s policy meeting on March 16-17, Chairman Jerome Powell will likely reaffirm his looser for longer stance. Powell repeatedly stressed during remarks on Thursday that the Fed was a long way from its goals and was not close to tightening policy. He also played down a likely rise in inflation this year and ducked questions on a possible response to the recent sharp rise in yields.While the move had “caught’ his attention, he said Fed policy was currently appropriate, though it has tools to respond if there is a material change in the outlook.Transcripts of the Fed’s meetings from 2015, when it last began a tightening cycle, suggested policy makers overestimated the potential for accelerating inflation and underestimated the room still left in the economy to generate jobs.What Bloomberg Economics Says...For the U.S., rising bond yields are largely a reflection of confidence in the strength of the recovery. For much of the rest of the world, the spillover of higher borrowing costs is arriving too soon. The Reserve Bank of Australia has already reacted with bigger bond buys. Others may also have to tweak their policy settings.-- Tom Orlik, chief economist Click here for moreTaper TalkThe Bank of England convenes on March 18. It has lined up a further 150 billion pounds ($208 billion) of asset purchases over 2021 with plans to taper weekly buying later in the year.A hugely stimulative budget from Chancellor Rishi Sunak now has economists further discounting the prospect of negative interest rates and instead looking forward to a tightening of monetary policy.The central bank has said that won’t happen until there is clear evidence that spare capacity is being eliminated and it’s closer to sustainably achieving its 2% inflation target, but in February announced it was considering whether to alter previous guidance that it wouldn’t unwind its asset purchases until the bank rate reached 1.5%. Governor Andrew Bailey has indicated he would favor reducing the institution’s balance sheet before hiking rates instead.BOJ, PBOCThen it’s the Bank of Japan’s turn on March 18-19, when officials are scheduled to unveil details of a policy review that will look at how it controls yields, negative rates and asset buying. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said the central bank is seeking to make its policy framework more effective by fine tuning it rather than overhauling it. He has also signaled there won’t be any changes to the movement range around the 10-year yield target.While developed-world central banks will likely be unified in pledging ongoing stimulus, China’s officials are already signaling the opposite. Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission -- the top banking regulator -- said on March 2. he’s “very worried” about risks emerging from bubbles in global financial markets and the nation’s property sector, stoking expectations of policy tapering.That was followed by the government setting a conservative growth target of above 6% for the year, well below what economists forecast the nation will achieve, as Premier Li Keqiang on Friday opened the National People’s Congress in Beijing.The tension between inflation and cheap money is already forcing some emerging market central banks to move. Ukraine unexpectedly raised interest rates to counter the highest inflation in more than a year. Brazil is forecast to start raising borrowing costs on March 17 having promised in August to keep its 2% benchmark for the “foreseeable future.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
We could see profit-taking this week as traders prepare for the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions on March 17.
Is the market telling us that in the not too distant future, oil will no longer be sine qua non for Exxon, or even that Exxon will be driven out of business? Maybe to both, though not quite yet.
(Bloomberg) -- Brent crude now trades above fiscal breakeven prices for the four biggest oil producers in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia convinced fellow OPEC+ members to keep output largely unchanged.The shock move by OPEC+ triggered a rally in Brent prices, which rose to almost $70 a barrel. That’s higher than annual average levels needed for the cartel’s largest producers, including Saudi Arabia, to balance their budgets this year.If oil prices stay at current levels, “we would see fiscal surpluses for the larger Gulf Cooperation Council economies,” said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank. “This provides more fiscal space to support economic activity and recovery.”Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised their price forecasts for Brent after the OPEC decision, while Citigroup Inc. said crude could top $70 before the end of this month.Budget deficits in the Arab Gulf, where economies are reliant on oil, widened after prices crashed in 2020. OPEC+ agreed last year to take about 10% of global supply off the market to stem the plunge and while the group has slowly rolled back some of those cuts, it is curtailing more than 7 million barrels of daily production.Still, Brent prices have averaged just over $59 so far this year -- below the breakeven level for most gulf countries. Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest economy and OPEC’s biggest producer, has posted successive budget shortfalls in the past seven years, a trend expected to continue into 2024, according to projections from the International Monetary Fund.Despite higher oil prices, “key non-oil sectors will continue to be impacted by the pandemic,” Malik said. “It will also be a balancing act for oil producers to manage the tightening in the oil market, whilst not halting the global recovery outlook.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
To win Senate passage, Biden agreed to make millions ineligible for the third checks.
(Bloomberg) -- The rally in oil prices has all but expunged any likelihood that Saudi Aramco will fail to meet its $75 billion dividend payout next year, according to Bank of America Corp.Far from missing the payment, the company may even boost it in 2022 as it increases production and benchmark crude prices head back toward $70 a barrel, the bank said.Aramco’s pledge to pay an annual $75 billion to shareholders during its first five years as a publicly traded company was thrown into doubt last year as oil tumbled amid the Covid-19 pandemic, prompting the company to slash spending and increase borrowing. It also put an additional strain on Saudi Arabia’s finances. The government, which owns 98% of Aramco after selling shares in a December 2019 initial public offering, has depended on the dividend to help plug its budget deficit.“Aramco would be well-placed to implement its higher dividend distribution guidance given during the IPO and even increase dividends beyond its minimum $75 billion pledge,” Bank of America analysts including Houston-based Doug Leggate and Karen Kostanian in Moscow said in a report. “Aramco is one of the few companies globally that can substantially boost output without committing additional capex.”Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, is benefiting as oil rebounds from last year’s slump amid OPEC+ production limits and signs of a global economic recovery. Brent, a benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, jumped 4.9% last week to $69.36 a barrel as of Friday, its highest close in almost two years.The potential for higher dividend payouts is already priced into Aramco’s stock, according to Bank of America, which left its target for the shares unchanged at 35 riyals. The shares rose as much as 2.3% to 36 riyals in Riyadh on Sunday. They have gained 2% this year.The bank’s report was published on Thursday, before a decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and partners like Russia to continue with its policy of supply restraints, which gave a further boost to prices.Saudi Arabia also said last week it would delay by an extra month plans to start returning 1 million barrels a day to the market, which gave a further boost to prices.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Personal finance guru Suze Orman said the receipt of a tax refund indicates "something's radically wrong," since the money returned to filers could otherwise have accrued value over the period it stood in the government's possession.
(Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc. has slumped 15% since late January. Tesla Inc. has lost more than a quarter-trillion dollars in market value in three weeks. And more than $1.5 trillion has been wiped off the Nasdaq 100 in less than a month.And yet, none of it has been enough to rattle the retail investor.Instead, to borrow a Reddit phrase describing bullish gumption, they’ve had diamond hands. Since the market peaked a few weeks ago, retail traders have plowed cash into U.S. stocks at a rate 40% higher than they did in 2020, which was a record year. They’re opting for parts of the market that have suffered the most, doubling down in arguably risky ways with triple-leveraged tech funds and options galore.A year out from the Covid-19 stock crash, with individual traders now making up nearly a quarter of U.S. volume on any given day, battle lines are forming. Some of the favored speculative bets that minted money on the way up -- electric-vehicle stocks, special purpose acquisition companies and green energy plays to name a few -- are the same securities that are buckling now as bond yields rise.Retail traders, many of them newbie investors, have consistently held strong, buying virtually every dip during what’s been the best start to a bull market in nine decades. But now the world is wondering how much it’ll take for them to call it quits, especially after a year in which retail traders were right way more often than wrong.“Historically it’s been a bad signal that retail investors are piling into the market and a signal of a top,” said Arthur Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. “And every time we tried to call a top in 2020 because of retail participation, it was wrong.”As stocks swooned over the last three weeks, retail investors snapped up an average of $6.6 billion in U.S. equities each week, according to data from VandaTrack, an arm of Vanda Research that monitors retail flows in the U.S. market. That’s up from an average $4.7 billion in net weekly purchases in 2020.They’ve doubled down on areas of the market that have been hit the hardest. Apple, which has plunged 15% since late January, was the most-popular retail buy this past week. NIO Inc., the electric-vehicle maker down almost 40% since Feb. 9, was the second-most popular. Next up were exchange-traded funds tied to the Nasdaq 100, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (ticker QQQ) and a triple leveraged version (ticker TQQQ).On Thursday, when the Nasdaq 100 fell as much as 2.9%, almost 32 million bullish call options traded across U.S. exchanges, the fifth-most on record. The other four have all occurred within the last four months.Equity ETFs added almost $7 billion of fresh money during the first four days of March, building on a record $83 billion that flooded in last month, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show. In fact, even before March began, flows into U.S.-listed ETFs were off to their best start to a year on record, out-pacing the prior best start -- which was in 2017 -- by over 74%, according to Matt Bartolini, State Street Global Advisors’ head of SPDR Americas Research.“There’s a lot of excess liquidity and we just had this $600 check going to many families in January,” said Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer of Rockefeller Global Family Office. “We’re going to get an additional liquidity injection in the $1,400 check and part of that money is going into risk assets.”Karim Alammuri, a 31-year-old marketing strategy manager, is one of many retail investors who’s been snapping up stocks. In recent days, he bought shares of fuboTV Inc. and SPAC Churchill Capital Corp IV. Fubo TV has plunged more than 50% since a December peak. Churchill Capital has lost almost 60% of its value in 11 trading sessions.“I plan on sticking around because I don’t want to take a loss,” he said by phone from New York. “A lot of very attractive stocks are on crazy discount right now, so I’m just looking to see how I can re-shuffle things to be able to buy them.”With an army of retail investors standing ready to buy any dip, those declines have grown shallower and shallower. The S&P 500 has gone without a 5% pullback since early November, or 83 straight days, the longest streak in a year.The end result of persistent dip buying is a market with little downside. At its lowest closing level of 2021, the S&P 500 was only down 1.5% year-to-date. That’s the smallest drawdown at this time of a year since 2017.If past is precedent, that could mean the sell-off has more room to run. Retail investors tend to buy the initial dips, and it’s not until they capitulate and sell that markets ultimately bottom, according to Eric Liu, co-founder and head of research at Vanda Research. The firm’s data show that was the case in both selloffs in 2018, as well as roughly a year ago during the Covid crash.To Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist for Crossmark Global Investments, their continued presence in the markets likely means elevated volatility will persist. Still, that doesn’t mean retail investors’ efforts are misguided.“Is there some dumb money in retail trades? Yes. But not all of it,” she said. “Some of these people are doing their homework, looking for opportunities and trying to take advantage of it. Some win, some lose -- it’s really not that different than what professionals do on an institutional basis.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- The prospect of rising inflation and U.S. Treasury yields may damp emerging-market sentiment, even as encouraging Chinese trade data points to a speedier global recovery from last year’s lockdown.Exports from the world’s second-biggest economy soared in the first two months of the year, data showed Sunday, reflecting a recovery in external demand and providing a much-needed boost for risk assets after a turbulent start to March. Meantime, the U.S. Senate passed a $1.9 trillion stimulus package Saturday that may offer an additional spur to countries such as Mexico whose economies are most sensitive to U.S. growth.Though equities may get a lift, anxiety remains high in the bond market after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish message last week stopped short of trying to rein in the surging yields. An index of dollar-denominated debt in the developing world dropped for a fourth week in its longest losing streak since 2018. Local-currency notes also slid amid selloffs from Poland to Hungary and Mexico.“All fixed-income assets face a challenging market as rates and inflation become more of a threat,” said Abdul Kadir Hussain, the Dubai-based head of fixed-income asset management at Arqaam Capital. “Emerging markets are no different. We have already seen outflows from emerging-market fixed-income funds, and I suspect that will continue in the near term.”Inflation data this week will offer evidence of whether that caution is merited. Economists expect consumer prices to have picked up in nations including Taiwan, India and Brazil. Elsewhere, Peruvian policy makers will probably keep the nation’s key interest rate at a record low of 0.25%.Inflation WatchTaiwan’s consumer prices probably rose last month after declining in January, according to a Bloomberg survey before the report on Tuesday. Export figures the same day may reveal growth slowed in February after the island exported a record the previous monthThe improving global trade outlook and backdrop for exports will probably buoy the Taiwan dollar, according to Gao Qi, a currency strategist at Scotiabank in SingaporeIndia’s consumer-price inflation probably accelerated further above the central bank’s 4% target, a Bloomberg survey showed. That could limit its capacity to keep monetary conditions accommodativeThose figures may put further upward pressure on Indian bond yields, which are already at a 10-month highA reading of Brazil’s February consumer-price inflation on Thursday will be the last before the central bank meets later this month to decide on the key policy rateEconomists expect that inflation climbed last monthMexico’s February inflation probably increased amid higher non-core prices, data on Tuesday may showArgentina is likely to report another month of high inflation when it releases February figures on ThursdayInvestors will also monitor Chile’s February inflation data on Monday, which will probably be slightly above the midpoint of the 3.0% +/- 1 percentage point target, according to Bloomberg EconomicsKey DataChinese data due this week will provide another update on the nation’s economy after authorities announced a conservative growth target for this year at the National People’s Congress on FridayAfter containing the pandemic and becoming the only major economy to expand in 2020, officials now want to address imbalances such as a dependence on investment in property and infrastructure funded by corporate debtAggregate financing numbers for February due between March 9 and 15 may show a slowdown due to seasonal factors. Inflation figures on Wednesday are expected to show consumer prices dropped for a second month in February, further enhancing the allure of Chinese bondsBrazil’s January economic activity and retail sales figures will also be released next week, offering clues on the pace of a rebound in Latin America’s largest economyIn politics, traders will watch for progress on an emergency spending bill as it moves through the lower house. Jitters over fiscal spending have contributed to the real becoming the worst-performing currency in emerging markets this yearTurkey’s January current-account deficit due Thursday may narrowThe lira has posted losses for two straight weeksREAD: Economist Who Called 2018 Turkey Crash Sees New Boom, BustSouth Africa will report its fourth-quarter current-account surplus on Thursday, which is forecast to have narrowedThe country is also expected to report manufacturing production data on the same dayOn Friday, Mexico will post January industrial production figures, which will give investors a better look at how activity is recoveringPeruvian policy makers will probably keep a dovish outlook on Thursday by holding borrowing costs at 0.25%, the lowest among major Latin American economies, according to a forecast by Bloomberg EconomicsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
The top cryptocurrency is changing hands near $50,500 at press time, representing a 4% gain on the day, having clocked a high of $51,320 early today, according to CoinDesk 20 data.
“These transactions are not anonymous,” the IRS' national fraud counsel said. “We see you.”
U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row as crude prices soared to their highest levels since 2019.
(Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank officials will set policy this week against a backdrop of investors betting on a global upturn even as the euro zone remains mired in pandemic lockdowns and painfully slow vaccinations.President Christine Lagarde will need to test her institution’s current stimulus plans against the challenges presented by those contrasting situations. While some of her colleagues have signaled concern over rising global bond yields, driven partly by the faster vaccine drive and bigger stimulus plans of the U.S., others are taking it in their stride for now. Investors will be watching Monday’s bond-buying data to see if the ECB ramped up purchases last week.Meanwhile the ECB will assess the damage to growth from another lost quarter, with lockdowns throughout the euro region freezing activity as health authorities’ immunization efforts struggle to gain traction compared with the U.K. and U.S. Along with the decision on Thursday, Lagarde will unveil new quarterly forecasts at a press conference.Where the Frankfurt institution can take some comfort is that it already has extensive stimulus in place. The centerpiece of that is its pandemic purchase program, whose original aim was to keep yields in check. That’s currently set to last at least another year.But sooner or later, as officials observe how a recovery takes shape, they are going to have to decide whether the support currently pledged with that tool is enough.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The ECB has emphasized its intention to maintain favorable financing conditions in an effort to support the recovery. We anticipate a clear message from the Governing Council that higher bond yields are triggering an unwarranted tightening of conditions.”--Maeva Cousin, David Powell and Jamie Rush. For full preview, click here.Elsewhere, Canada, Serbia and Kazakhstan are among countries with interest-rate decisions, the OECD presents its latest economic forecasts, and the U.K. will release data that may show the initial impact of post-Brexit trading.Click here for what happened last week and below is our wrap of what is coming up in the global economy.U.S. and CanadaInvestors in the U.S. are watching for the latest consumer price data Wednesday as debate heats up over fears of inflation rising in pockets of the economy. Other reports due out this week include updates on the federal budget, weekly jobless claims and consumer sentiment. Federal Reserve policy makers are in blackout ahead of the central bank’s next meeting on March 16-17.President Joe Biden’s signature $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief bill passed the Senate on Saturday, following a more than 25-hour marathon of amendment votes that was completed only after a lengthy interruption while Democrats settled an intra-party dispute over unemployment aid. The measure, the American Rescue Plan Act, now heads back to the House, where Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said a vote will be held Tuesday.Bank of Canada policy makers meeting Wednesday are likely to indicate they have no plans to withdraw stimulus from the economy any time soon, even as they prepare to adjust their quantitative easing program.For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the U.S.Europe, Middle East, AfricaA turning point in the U.K.’s pandemic response is due on Monday, when schools in England reopen. The measure is an initial step unveiled as part of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan to unlock the economy as vaccinations roll out.Britain’s other pressing economic challenge, its exit from the European Union, may feature in gross domestic product for January. That report on Friday will reveal a glimpse of the growth impact from the country’s new trading relationship with the bloc as of the start of this year, in addition to the third lockdown.The U.K.’s two most senior economic policy makers will also speak, with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivering a speech, and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak testifying to Parliament’s Treasury Committee about last week’s budget.In the euro region, policy makers will be bound to a quiet period before the ECB decision later in the week. German industrial production data for January on Monday will signal how the factory base there is weathering the global slump and a continuing lockdown.Elsewhere on the European continent, Serbia’s central bank will release its latest policy decision on Thursday, showing whether officials will keep the interest rate on hold at 1% for a third month after a surprise cut to that level in December.Data on Tuesday will probably show the South African economy still contracted from a year earlier in the three months through December, even as it’s expected to reflect strong quarter-on-quarter annualized expansion. Israel will move into the next stage of reopening its economy from lockdown restrictions, with restaurants and cafes that will be allowed to open for full service in the world’s most vaccinated country.For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEAAsiaChinese inflation numbers on Wednesday and credit figures for February will all be closely watched after PMIs pointed to slowing momentum for the world’s No. 2 economy. Trade data on Sunday showed exports surged in the first two months of the year, reflecting strong global demand for manufactured goods, though figures were partly skewed by the low base in 2020 when the economy was in lockdown.Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya speaks on Monday ahead of a policy review later this month. The words of one of the principal architects of yield-curve control will be closely scrutinized for possible signaling from the central bank of what is in the pipeline.A raft of data including household spending, wages and bankruptcies will show how the Japanese economy was faring during the state of emergency, while revised GDP figures for the last quarter may show slightly slower growth after the release of weaker capital spending data last week.For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for AsiaLatin AmericaIn Chile on Monday, look for year-on-year inflation data to come in right around the 3% target, where expectations appear well-anchored, yet again.On Tuesday, Mexico’s inflation reports are the next-to-last price readings before the central bank’s March 25 meeting. The figures here may keep a quarter-point interest rate cut in play.In Brazil events have overtaken policy, with the February report out Thursday expected to show inflation bumping up against the top of target range. Economists see a strong likelihood of a half-point interest rate increase at next week’s central bank meeting while swap traders have priced that in with six more to follow by year-end.Later in the day, Argentina’s statistics agency posts consumer price data, and Peru’s central bank is expected to keep the key rate unchanged at 0.25%.The week concludes with January reports on Brazilian retail sales and Mexico’s industrial production.For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin AmericaFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
The legislation is advancing quickly. Here's how much you're likely to get, and when.
(Bloomberg) -- India’s record foreign-exchange reserves and a rare current-account surplus look set to cushion the nation’s currency and bonds from a global surge in interest rates.While the central bank does have its hands full managing the government’s large debt issuance, strategists see the country in a much stronger financial position now than it was during previous bouts of turmoil in world markets. They cite the rupee, which has eked out a gain this year, defying the slump seen in most emerging-market currencies, and relative stability of India’s bonds.With reserves closing in on $600 billion and a current-account surplus forecast to exceed 1% of gross domestic product, talk of India as one of five fragile emerging markets has mostly faded away. When the description was coined during the taper tantrum in 2013, inflation in India was running at around 10%.Data due March 12 is projected to show consumer prices rising at less than half that level, and well below the 6.6% average of last year. Meanwhile, benchmark 10-year bond yields have largely been capped since last year by the central bank and the nation’s stocks continue to see foreign inflows.“India’s markets are likely to be relatively immune to higher U.S. yields in the weeks ahead,” said Mitul Kotecha, chief EM Asia and Europe strategist at TD Securities Ltd. in Singapore. “India has been a key beneficiary of equity inflows into Asia and we do not see outflows persisting.”Ahead of the CPI figures, here is a series of charts highlighting points of strength in India that have been cited by analysts.Stock InflowsIndian stocks have attracted about $6 billion of foreign inflows this year, the highest in emerging Asia after China, and well above those of the country’s erstwhile “Fragile Five” peers. The prospect of strong economic growth has been underpinned by an early start to India’s coronavirus inoculation campaign, aided by domestically produced vaccines.FX ReservesIndia’s central bank has added $127 billion to its foreign-exchange kitty since the beginning of January last year, the biggest increase among major Asian economies. At the current rate of accumulation, India is on course to pass Russia and take fourth place in global rankings for reserves, behind China, Japan and Switzerland. This large well of reserves should give authorities fire power to deal with any potential capital outflows driven by external shocks, according to Kaushik Das, chief India economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Mumbai.Current AccountIndia is expected to post a current-account surplus of 1.1% of GDP in the current fiscal year, along with a balance-of-payments surplus of $96 billion, according to Emkay Global Financial Serviced Ltd. While the current account may swing back to a small deficit next fiscal year, healthy capital flows may keep the balance of payments positive to the tune of $45-50 billion, helping to support the rupee, according to Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay.Bond ReturnsIndia’s sovereign bonds offer more stable returns than many others in emerging markets, as measured against annualized 60-day volatility in benchmark 10-year securities. The Reserve Bank of India has made over 3 trillion rupees ($41 billion) of bond purchases this fiscal year and plans to buy at least that amount next year, according to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, which should help to curb gains in yields.Economic GrowthIndia’s economy is projected by the International Monetary Fund to grow 11.5% in 2021, a pace that is likely to be the fastest of any major economy, which also augurs well for inflows and the rupee.Below are are the key Asian economic data and events due this week:Monday, March 8: Japan balance of paymentsTuesday, March 9: South Korea balance of payments, Japan GDP, Australia NAB Business Confidence, Taiwan CPIWednesday, March 10: China CPI, PPI; RBA’s Lowe gives speech in SydneyThursday, March 11: New Zealand food prices and house sales, Japan PPIFriday, March 12: Philippines trade, India Feb. CPI and Jan. industrial production, Thailand forex reserves, Malaysia industrial productionFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Congress is nearing passage of the third economic stimulus check it will send out to you and other taxpayers as part of its Covid-19 relief bill.
New premium subsidies could extend coverage to more than a million Americans.
(Bloomberg) -- Brent oil surged above $71 a barrel after Saudi Arabia said the world’s largest crude terminal was attacked, although output appeared to be unaffected after the missiles and drones were intercepted.Futures in London jumped 2.6% after rising 4.9% last week. The kingdom said a storage tank at Ras Tanura in the country’s Gulf coast was targeted on Sunday by a drone from the sea. The terminal is capable of exporting roughly 6.5 million barrels a day -- nearly 7% of oil demand -- and, as such, is one of the world’s most protected installations.The assault follows a recent escalation of hostilities in the Middle East region after Yemen’s Houthi rebels launched a series of attacks on Saudi Arabia. The new U.S. administration has also carried out airstrikes in Syria last month on sites it said were connected with Iran-backed groups.Oil’s rally accelerated last week after Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ made a surprise pledge to keep output steady in April. The move prompted a raft of investment banks to raise their price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimating global benchmark Brent will top $80 a barrel in the third quarter.The broader market is also being supported by bullish Chinese export data and the outlook for U.S. stimulus. President Joe Biden is on the cusp of his first legislative win with the House ready to pass his $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief plan, the second-biggest economic stimulus in American history.See also: Andurand Predicts Commodities Bull Run as Hedge Fund Soars 12%“It’s a perfect mix of bullish news at the moment,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank NV in Singapore. “It does seem that these attacks are picking up in frequency, so the market may need to price in some risk premium.”Brent’s prompt timespread at 71 cents a barrel in backwardation, a bullish market structure where the front-month contract trades higher than later shipments. It averaged 58 cents in backwardation last week.The Sunday attack is the most serious against Saudi oil installations since a key processing facility and two oil fields came under fire in September 2019, cutting oil production for several days and exposing the vulnerability of the Saudi petroleum industry. That assault was claimed by the Houthi rebels, although Riyadh pointed the finger at Iran.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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