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CF Industries Rebounds After Earnings

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CF Industries initially fell last week after reporting earnings, but the fertilizer maker cleared a 47.10 buy point Monday.

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  • Bitcoin Jumps Above $50,000 in Recovery from Last Week’s Rout

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  • A $21 Trillion Treasuries Mystery Is Bedeviling Global Markets

    (Bloomberg) -- Bond traders have been saying for years that liquidity is there in the world’s biggest bond market, except when you really need it.Last week’s startling gyrations in U.S. Treasury yields may offer fresh backing for that mantra, and prompt another bout of soul-searching in a $21 trillion market that forms the bedrock of global finance. While stocks are prone to sudden swings, such episodes are supposed to be few and far between in a government-debt market that sets the benchmark risk-free rate for much of the world.Yet jarring moves occur periodically in Treasuries, forming a bit of a mystery as no two events have been the same. Some point to heightened bank regulations in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Scrutiny over liquidity shortfalls intensified in October 2014 when a 12-minute crash and rebound in yields happened with no apparent trigger. Panic selling during the pandemic-fueled chaos a year ago, exacerbated when hedge funds’ leveraged wagers blew up, brought the issue to the fore again.And then came last week, when the gap between bid and offer prices for 30-year bonds hit the widest since the panic of March 2020.The latest events “are a stark reminder what happens when liquidity suddenly vanishes in the deepest, largest bond market,” said Ben Emons, managing director of global macro strategy at Medley Global Advisors.At issue is whether this vast market is more vulnerable to sudden bouts of turbulence thanks to measures that have made it more difficult for banks to hold Treasuries. Some analysts say the tumult last week was magnified by questions over whether the Federal Reserve will extend an easing of bank capital requirements, which is set to end March 31. Put in place early on in the pandemic, the measure is seen as making it easier for banks to add Treasuries to their balance sheets.The 2014 episode triggered a deep dive into the market structure, and regulators have pushed through some changes -- such as increased transparency -- and speculation has grown that more steps to bolster the market’s structure may be ahead.“While the scale and speed of flows associated with the COVID shock are likely pretty far out in the tail of the probability distribution, the crisis highlighted vulnerabilities in the critically important Treasury market that warrant careful analysis,” Fed Governor Lael Brainard said Monday in prepared remarks to the Institute of International Bankers.There are plenty of potential culprits in last week’s bond-market tumble -- which has since mostly reversed -- from improving economic readings to more technical drivers. Ultra-loose Fed policy and the prospect of fresh U.S. fiscal stimulus have investors betting on quicker growth and inflation. Add to that a wave of convexity hedgers, and unwinding by big trend-following investors -- such as commodity trading advisers.Based on Bloomberg’s U.S. Government Securities Liquidity Index, a gauge of how far yields are deviating from a fair-value model, liquidity conditions worsened recently, though it was nothing like what was seen in March.For Zoltan Pozsar, a strategist at Credit Suisse, the action began in Asia with bond investors reacting to perceived hawkish signs from the central banks of Australia and New Zealand. That sentiment then carried over into the U.S. as carry trades and other levered positions in the bond market were wiped out. A disastrous auction of seven-year notes on Thursday added fuel to the unraveling.Last week’s drama “brings to mind other notable episodes in recent years in which a deterioration in the Treasury market microstructure was primarily to blame,” JPMorgan & Chase Co. strategist Henry St John wrote in a note with colleagues.One key gauge of Treasury liquidity -- market depth, or the ability to trade without substantially moving prices -- plunged in March 2020 to levels not seen since the 2008 crisis, according to data compiled by JPMorgan. That severe degree of liquidity shortfall didn’t resurface last week.The bond-market rout only briefly took a toll on share prices last week, with equities surging to start this week, following a sharp retreat in Treasury yields amid month-end buying.The Fed cut rates to nearly zero in March 2020, launched a raft of emergency lending facilities and ramped up bond buying to ensure low borrowing costs and smooth market functioning. That breakdown in functioning has sparked calls for change from regulators and market participants alike.GLOBAL INSIGHT: Recovery? Yes. Tantrum? No. Yield Driver ModelFor now, Treasuries have settled down. Pozsar notes that the jump in yields has provided an opportunity for some value investors to swoop in and pick up extra yield, effectively helping offset the impact of the leveraged investors who scrambled for the exits last week.“Some levered players were shaken out of their positions,” Pozsar said in a forthcoming episode of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. “It’s not comfortable -- especially if you’re on the wrong side of the trade -- but I don’t think that we should be going down a path where we should redesign the Treasury market.”Why Liquidity Is a Simple Idea But Hard to Nail Down: QuickTake(Updates with details on Bloomberg’s liquidity index in 10th paragraph, and a chart)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • U.S. panel recommends export 'choke points' to prevent Chinese dominance in semiconductors

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  • China ‘Worried’ About Bubbles in Property, Foreign Markets

    (Bloomberg) -- China’s top banking regulator said he’s “very worried” about risks emerging from bubbles in global financial markets and the nation’s property sector, sparking fresh concerns about further tightening in the world’s second-biggest economy. Stocks dropped across Asia.Bubbles in U.S. and European markets could burst because their rallies are heading in the opposite direction of their underlying economies and will have to face corrections “sooner or later,” Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and Party secretary of the central bank said at a briefing in Beijing on Tuesday.READ MORE: Asian stocks slip as investors weigh impact of bond yields and China’s asset-bubble warningChina’s financial regulators are walking a fine line of trying to curb risks at home while limiting disruptions from abroad as the economy opens wider to foreign capital. The CBIRC vowed in January to stay “ahead of systemic risks,” after capping bank lending to the property market, slashing shadow banking activities and claiming victory in unwinding a wild expansion in peer-to-peer lending.“China’s monetary policy has not been as easy as the U.S. and Europe,” said Steven Leung, executive director at Uob Kay Hian (Hong Kong) Ltd. “This latest comment will create worry of further tightening.”Asia stocks tumbled and U.S. futures declined on Guo’s comments. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased earlier gains of as much as 0.8%. The CSI 300 Index in China fell as much as 1.4% and Hong Kong’s main gauge dropped almost 1%. Chinese government bonds gained from a shift toward haven assets, sending yields on benchmark 10-year notes to a nearly three-week low.“Beijing calling the overseas market rally a bubble won’t help sentiment in Hong Kong stocks, which had been seeing strong inflows from the mainland,” said Castor Pang, head of research at Core Pacific-Yamaichi.Regulators are watching capital inflows into China, where the economy is still growing and interest rates are higher, although the size and speed of such inflows remain controllable at the moment, Guo said.China’s top financial regulator also weighed in on the fintech sector, saying platforms that offer banking services must comply with the same capital requirements as traditional lenders to curb risks. The regulator has set different deadlines for each type of service, with the longest grace period of no more than two years, Guo said, without elaborating.Guo also said bubbles in China’s property market remain relatively big, with many people buying homes for investment or speculative purposes, which is “very dangerous.”A strong economic recovery, combined with a credit surge and a renewed fear of missing out have stoked buyer enthusiasm across China’s largest cities despite stricter curbs this year. Authorities have responded with a slew of policies to fine tune the industry, including a new mechanism on bank lending for real estate and fresh land-bidding rules designed to curb high-flying land costs.Still, home prices in the secondary market, which faces less government intervention, gained the most in 18 months in January, official data showed last week. Existing-home prices of certain popular projects in Shanghai surged more than 30% last year, according to China Real Estate Information Corp.“Guo’s comment reflects that Beijing wants a very stable financial market,” said Linus Yip, a strategist at First Shanghai Securities. “Stabilization is the ultimate goal of its monetary policy.”Other comments from Guo:China lending rates are likely to rebound this yearFinancial firms in Hong Kong not bound by U.S. sanctionsChina supports more Chinese firms listing in Hong KongReaction: Here’s What Analysts Are Saying on China’s Concern Over Bubbles(Updates with chart)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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