Yahoo Finance Plus Despite President Trump attempting to quell the fears of the coronavirus with the public, the markets are continuing their free-fall. Wealth Consulting Group CEO Jimmy Lee joins Yahoo Finance’s On the Move to discuss.
Credit Suisse has not yet finished unwinding its Archegos positions, said one source familiar with the matter. The bank has taken a $4.7 billion hit from dealings with Archegos Capital, prompting it to overhaul the leadership of its investment bank and risk divisions. Shares in Discovery and IQIYI fell in U.S. afterhours trading after news the offers, which were pitched below the stocks' closing prices.
Traders took a pause after the S&P 500 and Dow logged fresh record highs last week.
(Bloomberg) -- Just last year, the world’s most valuable startup, ByteDance Ltd., was being squeezed from all sides.The Trump administration wanted the Chinese firm, which owns the ubiquitous TikTok video-sharing platform, to get rid of assets. Beijing was cracking down on tech businesses, and India blacklisted some of its social-media apps.For all the obstacles, ByteDance kept growing. Now its founder, 38-year-old Zhang Yiming, is among the world’s richest people -- a distinction that lately has carried increased risks in China.Shares of the company trade in the private market at a valuation of more than $250 billion, people familiar with the dealings have said. At that level, Zhang, who owns about a quarter of ByteDance, could be worth more than $60 billion, placing him alongside Tencent Holdings Ltd.’s Pony Ma, bottled-water king Zhong Shanshan and members of the Walton and Koch families in the U.S., according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.ByteDance, famous for its short-video apps and news aggregator Toutiao, more than doubled revenue last year after expanding beyond its core advertising business into areas such as e-commerce and online gaming. It’s now weighing options for the initial public offering of some businesses.“Zhang is someone who’s known for thinking long-term and not easily dissuaded by short-term setbacks,” said Ma Rui, partner at venture-capital firm Synaptic Ventures. “He is set on building an enduring, global business.”Surging ValuationDuring its last fundraising round, ByteDance reached a $180 billion valuation, a person with knowledge of the matter said. That’s up from $20 billion about three years ago, according to CB Insights. But in the private market, some investors recently were asking for the equivalent of a $350 billion valuation to part with their shares, people familiar have said. The company’s value for private-equity investors is approaching $400 billion, the South China Morning Post reported. That would mean an even bigger fortune for Zhang.ByteDance representatives didn’t respond to requests for comment.It’s a tough time to be wealthy in China as the government seeks to rein in the country’s most powerful corporations and their billionaire founders. Just ask Jack Ma: After opening an antitrust probe, regulators fined Alibaba a record $2.8 billion and the central bank ordered an overhaul of his Ant Group Co. fintech empire so it’d be supervised more like a bank. On Tuesday, China ordered 34 internet companies to rectify their anti-competitive practices in the coming month. While ByteDance hasn’t been singled out as a target, its dominance in social media and war chest for deal-making are sensitive areas the government is looking into.“There are no more silly games in the U.S. with Trump and potential bans or forced asset sales,” said Kirk Boodry, founder of investment research firm Redex Holdings. “But the pressure on tech-share prices and China in particular might make $250 billion a tough sell,” he added, referring to ByteDance’s value in private transactions.Born in the southern Chinese city of Longyan, Zhang, the only son of civil servants, studied programming at Tianjin’s Nankai University, where he built a following on the school’s online forum by fixing classmates’ computers. He joined Microsoft Corp. for a brief stint after graduating, later calling the job so boring he often “worked half of the day and read books in the other half,” according to an interview with Chinese media. He went on to develop several ventures, including a real estate search portal.His breakthrough came in 2012, when working in a four-bedroom apartment in Beijing he created ByteDance’s first hit -- a joke-sharing app later shut down by censors. It then turned to news aggregation before winning over more than 1 billion global users with its short-video platforms TikTok and Chinese twin app, Douyin. In the process, it attracted big-name investors such as SoftBank Group Corp., Sequoia Capital and proprietary-trading firm Susquehanna International Group, making it a rarity among Chinese internet startups that usually get absorbed into the wider ecosystems of Tencent and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.Novel ConceptOne of Zhang’s earliest supporters, Susquehanna has become ByteDance’s largest outside backer with a 15% stake, according to a Wall Street Journal story in October. The initial bet was made at the start of 2012, when ByteDance’s news app Toutiao was just a concept that Zhang had drawn up on napkins, according to a 2016 blog post by Joan Wang, who led that investment for Susquehanna’s Chinese venture-capital unit.With TikTok facing scrutiny in the U.S. and India, Zhang has put more effort into ByteDance’s nascent and fast-growing Chinese businesses, which range from gaming to education to e-commerce. That helped it increase sales to about $35 billion last year and operating profit to $7 billion, a person familiar with the results said.Investors are eyeing the IPO of some of ByteDance’s businesses after Chinese competitor Kuaishou Technology raised $5.4 billion in February in the biggest internet listing since Uber Technologies Inc., with its market value now nearing $140 billion. Last month, ByteDance hired former Xiaomi Corp. executive Chew Shou Zi as its chief financial officer, filling a long vacant position that will be crucial for its eventual market offering.But for Zhang, it’s not all about immediate payoffs. The affable founder is known for his business philosophy of “delaying satisfactions” as he puts the focus on long-term growth -- a message he stressed again during his spiel to employees at the company’s ninth anniversary celebration last month.“Keep an ordinary mind, that’s something that sounds easy but important to do,” he said. “Put in the plainest words, when hungry, eat, when tired, sleep.”(Adds latest on China crackdown in ninth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
LONDON (Reuters) -Tesco, Britain's biggest retailer, reported a 20% drop in full-year pretax profit as the cost of adapting the business for the pandemic wiped out the benefit of "exceptionally strong" sales. With restaurants and cafes shut for large parts of 2020, supermarkets in Britain saw a surge in demand online and in stores as shoppers stocked up on food to eat at home during lockdown. "Everything about this last year has been exceptional," Chief Executive Ken Murphy told reporters.
(Bloomberg) -- Vingroup JSC is considering a U.S. initial public offering of its car unit VinFast that could raise about $2 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.The biggest carmaker in Vietnam is working with advisers on the potential offering that could take place as soon as this quarter, the people said. An offering could raise as much as $3 billion, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. The company is seeking a valuation of at least $50 billion after a listing, one of the people said.At $2 billion, VinFast’s IPO would be the biggest ever by a Vietnamese company after Vinhomes JSC’s $1.4 billion first-time share sale in 2018, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The carmaker could also become the first Vietnamese company to list in the U.S. if successful.Shares in Vingroup climbed as much as 5.3% on Tuesday to a record high. They have risen 27% this year, giving the company a market value of about $20 billion.Details of VinFast’s IPO including size and timeline could change as deliberations are ongoing, the people said. A representative for Vingroup declined to comment.VinFast, founded by billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong, began delivering gasoline-powered autos to Vietnamese consumers with BMW-licensed engines in 2019. The carmaker plans a Vietnam roll-out of electric cars later this year and said last month it has received 3,692 local orders. The startup aims to deliver its first electric vehicles to the U.S., Canada and Europe next year and is looking to open a factory in the U.S.(Updates with Vingroup shares in fourth paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks climbed to record highs and bond yields fell as investors bet that a higher-than-forecast rise in inflation won’t be enough to slow economic stimulus measures.The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high even after the U.S. recommended pausing Johnson & Johnson vaccines amid health concerns. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also set a record while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished in the red. Consumer prices rose more than expected last month but investors speculated the acceleration was not fast enough to warrant any Federal Reserve policy change. The drop in yields weighed on bank shares.“The market has been skittish about rates for some time,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial. “While this may cause some short-term volatility, investors have been pretty steadfast in their faith in a full economic recovery.”J&J shares fell as officials agreed to the pause and started an investigation into a link from its shot to rare and severe blood clots, while rivals Moderna Inc. and Pfizer Inc. advanced. The U.S. anticipates having enough other vaccines during the period.Fund managers across the world now see inflation, a taper tantrum and higher taxes as bigger risks than Covid-19, according to the latest Bank of America Corp. survey.“A lot of growth and inflation have already been priced into the market,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. “It’s almost as if you need to exceed those expectations in order to see a more pronounced reaction from markets.”Although policymakers at the Federal Reserve expect a bump in consumer prices to be short-lived, many traders disagree, with fears of faster CPI playing out across duration-heavy assets from bonds to tech stocks.Treasuries extended gains after the government’s auction of 30-year bonds was greeted with strong demand.Meanwhile, Bitcoin jumped to an all-time high as the mood in cryptocurrencies turned bullish before Coinbase Global Inc. goes public. Oil traded near $60 a barrel.Some key events to watch this week:Banks and financial firms begin reporting first-quarter earnings, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp., Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.Economic Club of Washington hosts Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a moderated Q&A on Wednesday.U.S. Federal Reserve releases Beige Book on Wednesday.U.S. data including initial jobless claims, industrial production and retail sales come Thursday.China economic growth, industrial production and retail sales figures are on Friday.These are some of the main moves in financial markets:For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Global stock markets pushed to record highs on Wednesday as bond yields eased, after data showed U.S. inflation was not rising too fast as the economy re-opens. With fears receding for now that a strong inflation reading might endanger the Federal Reserve's accommodative stance, European shares opened 0.1% higher. Gains were capped after Johnson & Johnson said it would delay rolling out its COVID-19 vaccine to Europe, after U.S. health agencies recommended pausing its use in the country after six women developed rare blood clots.
(Bloomberg) -- The full implications of Beijing’s rapid-fire moves against Jack Ma’s internet empire in recent days won’t be apparent for weeks, but one lesson is already clear: The glory days for China’s technology giants are over.The country’s government imprinted its authority indelibly on the country’s technology industry in the span of a few days. In landmark announcements, it slapped a record $2.8 billion fine on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. for abusing its market dominance, then ordered an overhaul of Ant Group Co. On Tuesday, regulators summoned 34 of the country’s largest companies from Tencent Holdings Ltd. to TikTok owner ByteDance Ltd., warning them “the red line of laws cannot be touched.”The unspoken message to Ma and his cohorts was the decade of unfettered expansion that created challengers to Facebook Inc. and Google was at an end. Gone are the days when giants like Alibaba, Ant or Tencent could steamroll incumbents in adjacent businesses with their superior financial might and data hoards.“Between the rules for Ant and the $2.8 billion fine for Alibaba, the golden days are over for China’s big tech firms,” said Mark Tanner, founder of Shanghai-based China Skinny. “Even those who haven’t been targeted to the same extreme will be toning down their expansion strategies and adapting many elements of their business to the new bridled environment.”Tech companies are likely to move far more cautiously on acquisitions, over-compensate on getting signoffs from Beijing, and levy lower fees on the domestic internet traffic they dominate. Ant in particular will have to find ways to un-tether China’s largest payments service from its fast-growth consumer lending business and shrink its signature Yu’ebao money market fund -- once the world’s largest.Even companies that have been less scrutinized so far -- like Tencent or Meituan and Pinduoduo Inc. -- are likely to see growth opportunities curtailed.The watershed moment was years in the making. In the early part of the last decade, visionary entrepreneurs like Ma and Tencent co-founder Pony Ma (no relation) created multi-billion dollar empires by up-ending businesses from retail to communications, elevating the lives of hundreds of millions and serving as role models for an increasingly affluent younger generation. But the enormous opportunities coupled with years of hyper-growth also fostered a winner-takes-all land-grab mentality that unnerved the Communist Party.Regulators grew concerned as the likes of Alibaba and Tencent aggressively safeguarded and extended their moats, using data to squeeze out rivals or forcing merchants and content publishers into exclusive arrangements. Their growing influence over every aspect of Chinese life became more apparent as they became the conduits through which many of the country’s 1.3 billion bought and paid for things -- handing over vast amounts of data on spending behavior. Chief among them were Alibaba and Tencent, who became the industry’s kingmakers by investing billions of dollars into hundreds of startups.All that came to a head in 2020 when Ma -- on the verge of ushering in Ant’s record $35 billion IPO -- publicly denigrated out-of-touch regulators and the “old men” of the powerful banking industry.The unprecedented series of regulatory actions since encapsulates how Beijing is now intent on reining in its internet and fintech giants, a broad campaign that’s wiped roughly $200 billion off Alibaba’s valuation since October. The e-commerce giant’s speedy capitulation after a four-month probe underscores its vulnerability to further regulatory action.Chinese titans from Tencent to Meituan are next up in the cross-hairs because they’re the dominant players in their respective fields. Regulators may focus on delivery giant Meituan’s historical practice of forced exclusivity -- particularly as it expands into burgeoning areas like community e-commerce -- while investigating Tencent’s dominant gaming service and whether its messaging platform WeChat excludes competitors, Credit Suisse analysts Kenneth Fong and Ashley Xu wrote Tuesday.“The days of reckless expansion and wild growth are gone forever, and from now on the development of these firms is likely going to be put under strict government control. That’s going to be the case in the foreseeable future,” said Shen Meng, a director at Beijing-based boutique investment bank Chanson & Co. “Companies will have to face the reality that they need to streamline their non-core businesses and reduce their influence across industries. The cases of Alibaba and Ant will prompt peers to take the initiative to restructure, using them as the reference.”The revamp of Ant -- a sprawling financial titan once worth as much as $320 billion -- is a case in point. In its ruling, the People’s Bank of China said it wanted to “prevent the disorderly expansion of capital” and ensure that all of Ant’s financial business will be regulated under a single holding company.What Bloomberg Intelligence SaysAnt Group’s prospects could wane further after China halts improper linking of Alipay payments with Ant’s other products. New curbs on Yu’ebao also hurts its wealth business. Alipay’s 711 million active users are its potential fintech-product buyers. Ant’s valuation could now be near banks we cover (average 5x forward earnings) compared with over 30x at its IPO attempt.- Francis Chan, analystClick here for the research.Ma’s company will likely have to apply and register to get into any new areas of finance in future -- a potential ordeal given the infamously creaky wheels of Beijing bureaucracy. It faces restrictions in every key business -- from payments and wealth management to credit lending.The company’s most lucrative credit lending arm will be capped based on registered capital. It must fold its Huabei and Jiebei loan units -- which had 1.7 trillion yuan ($260 billion) of outstanding loans between them as of June -- into a new national company that will likely raise more capital to support its operations. And Ant must reduce its Yu’ebao money market wing, which encompasses a self-operated Tianhong Yu’ebao fund that held $183 billion of assets as of the end of 2020, making it one of the largest pools of wealth in the world.Alibaba appears to have got off lightly in comparison. While the $2.8 billion was triple the previous record set by Qualcomm Inc.’s 2015 penalty, it amounts to under 5% of the company’s annual revenue. Far more insidious however is the threat of future action and the dampening effect it will have on Alibaba.The fine came with a plethora of “rectifications” that Alibaba will have to put in place -- such as curtailing the practice of forcing merchants to choose between Alibaba or a competing platform. Executives also volunteered to open up Alibaba’s marketplaces more, lower costs for merchants while spending “billions of yuan” to help its clients handle e-commerce.Ant will likewise have to tame its market share grab in payments. Changes to that business, which is fending off Tencent’s WeChat Pay, were among the top priorities regulators outlined. Ant pledged to return the business “to its origin” by focusing on micro-payments and convenience for users.The most amorphous yet dire threat lies in the simple principle implicit in regulators’ pronouncements over the past few days: that Beijing will brook no monopolies that threaten its hold on power.The central bank warned in draft rules released previously that any non-bank payment company with half of the market for online transactions -- or two entities with a combined two-thirds share -- could be subject to antitrust probes. If a monopoly is confirmed, the State Council or cabinet has powers to levy a plethora of penalties, including breaking up the entity.That’s an entrepreneur’s ultimate nightmare.“Everyone is on the regulators’ radar, and it really depends on each one’s reaction next,” Chanson & Co.’s Shen said. “It’s better to take the initiative to self-rectify, rather than having to go through restructuring ordered by the regulators, which may not have your best interests in mind.”(Updates with a graphic of this week’s stock gyrations in fifth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Britain’s financial markets watchdog is looking to upgrade its relationship with the U.S. and give U.K. firms permanent access to American securities and derivatives markets in the wake of Brexit.The Financial Conduct Authority is working closely with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission about a “permanent footing” for U.K. trading venues to operate in the U.S., Nausicaa Delfas, the FCA’s executive director of international, said at a conference on Tuesday.“If granted, this recognition will provide U.K. firms with the certainty they need to conduct their business in the U.S. with confidence,” Delfas said at the City & Financial Global virtual event.The FCA is also in discussions with the Securities and Exchange Commission over access to the U.S. for swap dealers, and the regulator is supporting the U.K. government’s negotiations with the U.S. on a wider trade agreement. These efforts build on agreements made before Brexit came into effect at the start of the year, which pledged to minimize disruption in transatlantic financial markets.“There is much still to be agreed, but we are supportive of an ambitious outcome on financial services that benefits both U.K. and U.S. industries whilst preserving our regulatory objectives and safeguards,” Delfas said.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Britain is allowing owner Sanjeev Gupta to explore refinancing options for Liberty Steel before offering any potential government support, business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said on Tuesday. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said this month he was hopeful the government could find a solution for Liberty Steel after its biggest lender Greensill Capital went into insolvency last month. "But we can't strip Liberty Steel in this instance now from the wider group under which it sits."
(Bloomberg) -- It’s just a quarter of the way through 2021 and stocks have already leaped past Wall Street’s year-end forecasts. They’ve jumped 10% and priced in so much optimism that it will take two more years for earnings to catch up.Is that enough for bulls? Nope. In a market that has plowed through records once every five days, the only things expanding faster than valuations are investor expectations. At Citigroup, an indicator that compares levels of panic to euphoria in the market has been pinned on elation all year, while a Bank of America model weighing optimism among sell-side analysts sits at a 10-year high.To be sure, animal spirits have calmed at the market’s loopiest edge, with penny-stock volume down and the meme craze receding. But robust appetite persists in its tamer -- and still speculative -- districts. And while fortunes would have been sacrificed repeatedly by anyone expecting this rally to overheat, the juxtaposition of stretched sentiment and a still-healing economy is a source of growing anxiety for professionals.“It is strange to see these sentiment measures elevated at the same time the economy is still recovering,” said George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank. “We’ve had a shot in the arm with respect to fiscal and monetary stimulus” and its impact on the economy “is likely to continue for a while longer, but at some point it’d fade.”Not that there aren’t a lot of reasons to stay optimistic, with many data points coming in stronger than expected, vaccine rollouts (mostly) continuing and earnings expected to buttress the bull case. Taking any single sentiment indicator at face value and relying on it as a sell signal could have meant missing out on one of the largest year-over-year rallies ever recorded.Sentiment readings “are hovering at extremely high levels and we could have been worried about them three months ago -- we could have been worried about them one month ago,” Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told Bloomberg TV. “They are telling us that the gains are going to be harder to come by, that if we do get negative catalysts, we are vulnerable to the downside. But I think it’s hard to view any of this data as an automatic sell signal right now.”Doubters point to everything from potential Fed tapering and tax hikes to the potential for fatigue among retail investors. A look under the surface already shows a shift in leadership that’s tilting toward companies whose growth is seen as more resilient during an economic slowdown. The frenetic buying of cyclical shares like energy and banks has cooled during the past month. Vaulting back to the top of the leader board are defensive stocks like technology, real estate and utilities.Bank of America’s “sell side indicator,” which aggregates the average recommended equity allocation by strategists, has risen for a third month to a 10-year high. But the cyclical rebound, vaccines and stimulus are all largely priced in already, wrote strategists led by Savita Subramanian. Meanwhile, a record amount of equity funds is being absorbed: Inflows to stocks over the past five months, at $576 billion, exceed inflows from the prior 12 years, according to the bank.Citigroup’s panic/euphoria model, which tracks metrics from options trading to short sales and fund flows, has remained in “euphoric” territory for much of this year, “generating a 100% historical probability of down markets in the next 12 months at current levels,” according to the bank’s chief U.S. equity strategist Tobias Levkovich.Options traders are placing bets the calm won’t last. The middle part of the VIX curve shows many are expecting volatility to pick up, with the spread between the VIX -- the market’s fear gauge -- and futures on implied 30-day volatility four months from now near the highest level in about five years. One trader last week wagered that the fear gauge will rise toward 40, and won’t be lower than 25, in July. The trader appears to have bought a total of about 200,000 call contracts, an amount almost as big as the total daily volume of VIX calls, based on the 20-day average.“Sentiment -- it’s not usually enough on its own to tip a bull market over, but it does mean that if there is something that causes the broad market to flinch, it can sell off quicker and harder,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird. “When sentiment is running this hot, you’re hitting a new all-time high every day, at some point there will be a correction. Paying up for protection, if you have short-term money, makes plenty of sense.”Going all-in on equities for fear of missing out -- while staying protected against any downturn -- is the preferred posture of hedge funds. Lured by an almost uninterrupted rally since November, the industry has boosted their net exposure to equities to multi-year highs. Meanwhile, they’ve stepped up hedging through macro products such as index futures and exchange-traded funds. Their short sales on ETFs, for instance, increased 11% this year through March 26, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s prime brokerage unit.The hedged-long approach has gained traction on Wall Street. On Friday, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou recommended investors hold on to risky assets such as stocks but add hedges through options in credit and stocks. One looming risk for the market is a continuing retreat from retail investors, a steadfast driver behind the yearlong bull market, they said.“We don’t believe that the equity bull market is yet exhausted,” the strategists wrote in the note. But “there is clear evidence of elevated equity positioning by retail investors and thus a vulnerability for the equity market going forward,” they said.Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Financial Group, says his firm is looking for ways to de-risk its portfolios. “People are seeing the recovery, they’re seeing good things happening today, which is great, but it’s a classic case of ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ and what they should be doing is looking six-to-nine months from now,” he said. “There are many headwinds that are going to hit the market.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England’s Chief Economist Andy Haldane will step down in June, removing the the Monetary Policy Committee’s most outspoken contrarian and inflation hawk.Haldane, 53, will leave after career spanning more than three decades at the central bank to become chief executive officer at the Royal Society for Arts, Manufactures and Commerce starting in September. He will remain in place through the bank’s rate decision on June 24. He’s departing as the U.K. emerges from its worst recession in three centuries, which pushed the central bank to unleash unprecedented stimulus including 150 billion pounds ($206 billion) of bond purchases this year. Haldane alone on the nine-member policy panel voiced concerns about inflation accelerating with a rapid bounce-back in growth as Prime Minister Boris Johnson winds back restrictions to contain the Covid-19.“The most interesting element to me is that he is probably the arch-hawk on the MPC, and his removal will certainly see a more dovish tone seep into meetings,” said Stuart Cole, chief macro strategist at Equiti Capital and a former BOE economist.Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will appoint a successor after the bank advertises the position. While the chief economist traditionally also sits on the MPC, it’s the Treasury’s decision to name members to that panel.In recent months, Haldane has warned about the risk of excessive pessimism about the economic outlook as the pandemic winds down, terming it “Chicken Licken” economics that could undermine the recovery.While many of his colleagues point out concerns about rising unemployment and signs of sluggishness in the economy, he said he expects a “rip-roaring recovery” and on inflation said a “tiger has been stirred” that may “prove difficult to tame.”Several economists said the improving outlook for the U.K. economy has already shifted debate on the MPC away from extra stimulus and toward whether the pace of bond purchases need to slow -- or even an eventual tightening in policy.“In 2022 the BOE is likely to set out an exit strategy from its ultra-easy policy stance before hiking the bank rate in 2023,” said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg.Haldane joined the BOE in 1989 after gaining a masters in economics from Warwick University.He logged experience at the central bank in international finance, market infrastructure and financial stability during the financial crisis before clinching his current role under previous Governor Mark Carney in 2014. That year, “Time” magazine named him one of the world’s 100 most influential people.Haldane is known for his occasionally quirky speeches. He once used Dr. Seuss to bemoan the reading age needed to understand the central bank’s communications.His words sometimes raised eyebrows, notably when he compared pre-crisis economic projections to a famously inaccurate forecast by BBC weatherman Michael Fish before a 1987 storm that killed 18 people.In 2012, he drew the ire of his future boss with a speech -- titled “The Dog and the Frisbee” -- which called for simplicity in banking regulation. Carney, who was then the Bank of Canada governor and head of the global Financial Stability Board, said the speech was “uneven” and the conclusion “not supported by the proper understanding of the facts.”Haldane has also led the government’s Industrial Strategy Council until it was dissolved a few weeks ago and is the co-founder of charity Pro-Bono Economics.“If your business is trying to predict rates and quantitative easing, it will be a bit easier without Andy’s speeches somewhat clouding the issue,” said Tony Yates, a former BOE official who worked with Haldane. “If you’re trying to get up to speed on the latest things in monetary economics and finance, then it’s less good because there won’t be Andy picking up new things and explaining them.”(Updates with context and comment from the first paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin advanced Wednesday, breaching the $64,000 level for the first time after eclipsing its most recent record in March a day earlier as the mood in cryptocurrencies turned bullish ahead of Coinbase Global Inc.’s listing this week.The token climbed as much as 1.6% to as high as $64,207 in Asia trading. Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks such as Riot Blockchain Inc. and Marathon Digital Holdings Inc. advanced during U.S. trading hours.Crypto bulls are out in force as a growing list of companies embrace Bitcoin, even as skeptics doubt the durability of the boom. In one of the most potent signs of Wall Street’s growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies, Coinbase will list on the Nasdaq on April 14 at a valuation of about $100 billion.Coinbase’s debut “will mark the first official juncture between the traditional financial avenue and the alternative crypto path,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. “As such, a successful addition to Nasdaq should act as endorsement of cryptocurrencies by traditional investors.”Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley have announced plans to offer their clients access to crypto investments. Tesla Inc. earlier this year disclosed a $1.5 billion investment in Bitcoin and more recently started accepting it as payment for electric cars.Still, skeptics argue that digital coins have been inflated by stimulus that’s also sent stocks to records. Regulators around the world are stepping up oversight and casting doubt on its usefulness as a currency.Isabel Schnabel, member of the executive board of the European Central Bank, called Bitcoin “a speculative asset without any recognizable fundamental value” in an interview with Der Spiegel this month.Coinbase’s public debut this week is also boosting the digital coins of other cryptocurrency exchanges, such as Binance Coin, which has jumped to become the third-most valuable cryptocurrency behind Bitcoin and Ether.Many analysts expect the rally to continue.“The lowest 30-day volatility since October tells us Bitcoin is ripe to exit its cage and continue in a bull-market on its way to the next $10,000 move,” according to Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence commodities strategist. “Similar to Tesla’s equity-wealth allocation to Bitcoin, the Coinbase IPO may add to the growing list of 2021 crypto-validation milestones.”(Updates with latest Bitcoin pricing in second paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Autodoc could seek a valuation of as much as 10 billion euros ($11.9 billion) in an initial public offering in Frankfurt, according to people familiar with the matter.The German online car-parts dealer is close to appointing banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. as it proceeds with plans for a listing, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential information.Discussions are ongoing and decisions on value and timing of the IPO could change depending on market conditions and investor appetite, according to the people. More banks could get added to the IPO roster, the people said.Representatives for Autodoc, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan declined to comment.Berlin-based Autodoc sells around 2.5 million products for car repairs and maintenance, from brake to heating systems, according to its website. It is one of a number of German companies, ranging from language app Babbel to dating platform ParshipMeet, that are considering listings on the country’s stock exchange, Bloomberg News has reported.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Sustainability has become a significant part of Nike’s (NKE) business model through its Move-to-Zero initiative. In 2021, the push continues with the brand’s first "circular supply chain" business model called Nike Refurbished. The sportswear giant also announced plans to partner with rideshare company Lyft (LYFT) on a new eco-friendly bike share station.
(Bloomberg) -- Inside a six-story high warehouse near Singapore’s Changi airport, a vast hangar-like space is waiting to be filled with a precious metal that usually plays second fiddle to its more lustrous sibling.The vault that’s being built by Silver Bullion Pte Ltd. will -- when completed in the first half of next year --- be able to store 15,000 tons of silver. It’s only holding around 400 tons of the metal at the moment, but the vacant space is an indication that silver appears to be on the cusp of a promising few years.Demand for coins and bars is booming, fueled in part by a Reddit-induced buying frenzy in February that drove prices to an eight-year high. While the fervor has abated, retail interest is still elevated, valuations are relatively cheap and measures are being taken to meet the surge in demand. The amount of silver stored in vaults in London rose 11% in March to a record, according to the London Bullion Market Association.As well as the Singapore vault, JM Bullion, one of the biggest precious metals retailers in the U.S., plans to open a 25,000-square-foot-warehouse in Dallas in June that will be used for storing silver and other precious metals.The metal’s crucial role in the energy transition -- it’s a key component in solar panels -- also looks set to buoy consumption over the longer-term. All this has some analysts forecasting that silver will outperform gold this year.“The outlook for demand growth for silver over the next few years looks very positive, especially across a wide range of industrial applications, including solar, 5G and automotive,” said Philip Klapwijk, managing director of Hong Kong-based consultant Precious Metals Insights Ltd. “That, coupled with ongoing high levels of investment is likely to create the need for more dedicated storage space for silver in bullion and also intermediate forms.”Gregor Gregersen, founder of Silver Bullion, said he started searching for a bigger warehouse two or three years ago and that decision was vindicated last year when demand for the metal surged during the coronavirus pandemic. “The idea is to make this into a really iconic building,” he said during a tour of the vault that will be known as The Reserve. “There isn’t really a facility built specifically to store large quantities of silver securely.”Singapore has a reputation as a stable financial center and has taken steps to position itself as a bullion hub, exempting investment-grade gold, silver and platinum from a goods and services tax.Physical investment in silver, which covers bullion coin and bar purchases, is expected to reach a six-year high of 257 million ounces in 2021, according to the Silver Institute.Spot silver, currently trading around $25 an ounce, is forecast by Citigroup Inc. to peak at $28 to $30 in the second half, aided by “still solid” investment demand and an end to physical de-stocking in China and India. The lender sees the price averaging $27.30 this year. Morgan Stanley, meanwhile sees the metal averaging $25 an ounce in 2021, up 22% from last year.Gold, meanwhile, is stabilizing after its first quarterly loss since 2018 amid high bond yields and optimism over the global economic recovery from the pandemic that’s damping demand for the metal. Citi sees gold, currently fetching around $1,740 an ounce, falling to $1,575 in six to 12 months.Sill, there’s no shortage of silver. The Silver Institute expects the global market to remain in a surplus this year, although it sees the lowest excess since 2015. And even against a backdrop of strong electronics and automotive demand as well as growing solar power investment, silver’s failure to break higher suggests the gold price, real yields and the U.S. dollar remain powerful drags, Morgan Stanley said in a note.“Considering the high correlation of silver to gold, and our bearish outlook for the yellow metal over the next 12 months, we expect silver together with gold to continue to struggle amid higher real interest-rate expectations in the U.S.,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a strategist at UBS Group AG.JM Bullion Chief Executive Officer Michael Wittmeyer is more optimistic. The Reddit-fueled buying frenzy caused a spike in demand from existing silver bugs as well as bringing in a lot of first-time investors in the metal, he said. “We’re just trying to expand our capacity so that next time this happens, we’ll be able to get all these orders shipped more quickly.”The accelerating move away from fossil fuels should also provide an enduring tailwind for silver demand as investment in solar power ramps up. China, Japan and South Korea all set carbon zero targets last year, while the U.S. is considering emissions cuts of 50% or more from 2005 levels by 2030.The energy transition demand should give prices an extra boost, said CPM Group analyst Rohit Savant. Silver will average $27 this year and beat gold due to its relatively cheaper valuation and strong investment demand, he said. Spot silver fell 2% to $24.77 an ounce at 10:40 a.m. in New York on Monday after gaining 1% last week.In Singapore, Silver Bullion’s Gregersen is confident all that currently vacant space in his vault won’t go to waste. “Silver is usually a forgotten metal that people don’t really care much about,” he said. “But it’s starting to shine a bit more and that trend will continue.”(Updates with spot silver price in the 16th paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Bond traders searching for an opportunity to challenge central banks are starting to look Down Under, where a likely showdown over yield-curve control is set to test the power of policy makers to contain the next wave of reflation bets.The global trading day for bonds begins in earnest in Sydney each morning, giving developments in Australia’s $600 billion sovereign debt market an out-sized impact on sentiment. It was the scene of a dramatic “flash crash” last year when the yield program was announced, illustrating the potential for turmoil.While the Reserve Bank of Australia has largely tamed markets since then, as the economy’s recovery strengthens, wagers against the RBA’s ability to keep yields lower look poised to rise.“If inflation expectations do start to un-anchor, then I think the RBA will be one of the first central banks to be tested by bond traders,” said Shaun Roache, an economist at S&P Global Ratings in Singapore. “The RBA is a canary in the coal mine for central banks as it is ahead in its labor market recovery.”The RBA brought short-sellers quickly to heel when the global bond rout emboldened them to test its grip on yield control in February. After weeks of aggressive positioning by traders, the bank nudged up the cost of speculating on rising rates and the yield on benchmark three-year bonds fell neatly back into line with its 0.1% target.But keeping the market at bay next time may prove more difficult, as vaccination campaigns gather pace in major economies and the U.S. recovery nears an “inflection point,” emboldening traders. Pressure is already apparent in Australia’s three-year swap rate, which is increasing the costs of managing interest-rate risks for corporate borrowers.Read More: BOJ Seeks Only Tweaks to Stay Aligned with Fed, ECBIf yield control fails in Australia, it may fade away as a potential option for other monetary authorities in need of more policy ammunition. Especially because yield control’s record in Japan -- the only other country to officially employ it -- is patchy.Pinning the rate of one key bond maturity has helped the Bank of Japan reduce borrowing costs in general and also allowed it to slow the pace of bond purchases. But it has come at a cost. The nation’s debt market is lambasted as dysfunctional and an economic recovery strong enough to revive inflation looks as far away as ever.Widening GapBeneath the surface, problems are building Down Under too. While the RBA has its thumb on one specific bond line, there is a large gulf between the yield on this security and those maturing slightly later. There’s also a widening gap to rates on the suite of derivatives linked to three-year yields that flow through into borrowing costs for companies and consumers.The three-year swap rate surged through February and March, rising to four times the RBA’s target for three-year bonds amid pressure from higher U.S. yields and a rebounding economy at home.Australia’s bond futures tell a similar story. The yield implied by three-year futures doubled in the two weeks to Feb. 26 and remains elevated, even after retreating from its high point.“Lack of liquidity, a central bank that’s digging its heels in -- all that, for us, means there’s going to be more volatility in Aussie rates,” said Kellie Wood, a fixed-income portfolio manager at Schroders Plc’s Australian unit. “The RBA has succeeded in terms of round one. But we are starting to see cracks,” said Wood, who expects the market to challenge the 0.1% target again.Stephen Miller, an investment consultant at GSFM, an arm of Canada’s CI Financial Corp., agrees that higher yields may arrive in Australia sooner than the RBA thinks. “It will be powerless if the U.S. curve shifts upwards and other rates markets follow,” said Miller.Read More: Debate Over Next Move in Bonds Has Never Been FiercerNot everyone is prepared to bet against the RBA.For Fidelity International’s Anthony Doyle, taking on the RBA may be a recipe for steep losses if past lessons from the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve are anything to go by.Nine years ago, then ECB President Mario Draghi vowed to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro, leading to quantitative easing and bond purchases that are still in place. The Fed said more than a year ago that it would buy unlimited amounts of Treasuries to keep borrowing costs at rock-bottom levels, and it’s still holding firm.Holding the Cards“I don’t think it’s ever wise to fight anyone that has a printing press,” said Doyle, a cross-asset investment specialist at Fidelity in Sydney. “The RBA as a house holds all the cards. If they want yields lower, they’ll get it.”This caution is shared by JPMorgan Asset Management’s Kerry Craig.For now, the central bank “definitely has enough dry powder,” said Craig, a strategist in Melbourne. But he is concerned that with monetary policy and markets around the world moving in sync, “you can only fight so much if U.S. rates or global rates go higher -- it’s going to drag Australian ones up.”Yet Governor Philip Lowe isn’t doing everything he could to damp doubts over the RBA’s resolve. His reluctance to make an early switch in the yield target to bonds maturing in November 2024, from ones due in April 2024, is fueling debate about how soon the policy could be wound back.Lowe said at the conclusion of the latest board meeting on April 6 that a decision would be made later this year, without being more specific. He also indicated that the RBA expected to maintain “highly supportive monetary conditions” until at least 2024, even though the number of Australians with a job has returned to pre-pandemic levels.“We don’t think they’ll extend yield-curve control” beyond the current April 2024 bond, said Wood, who warned of potential taper tantrums.Lowe’s February win against short sellers, and a slide in yields at home and abroad over recent weeks, has given the RBA space to breathe. But it’s likely only a matter of time before bond traders come back for round two.“Everybody’s watching how this is going to unfold,” said S&P’s Roache. “The RBA may not want this role, but it is taking quite a starring role I think among global central banks.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Gap Inc. and Synchrony Financial are parting ways after they couldn’t reach an agreement to renew their longstanding card partnership.The clothing retailer has decided to shift the portfolio to Barclays Plc beginning in May 2022, it said in a statement Tuesday. Synchrony said in a regulatory filing that it expects to recognize a gain on the sale of the portfolio when it unloads it next April.“Synchrony was unable to reach contractual and economic terms with Gap that made sense for our company and our shareholders,” the Stamford, Connecticut-based firm said in the filing.Synchrony shares dropped 3.7% to $41.55 at 2:34 p.m. in New York, the second-worst performance in the 65-company S&P 500 Financials Index. The lender plans to use about $1 billion of the proceeds from the sale of the portfolio to buy back shares and invest in “higher growth programs,” according to the filing.Gap and Synchrony have offered cards together for more than two decades, and the lender counts the retailer as one of its five largest partners. The portfolio represents about 5% of the bank’s roughly $80 billion in receivables.It’s the second time Synchrony has opted not to renew a partnership with a major retailer after Walmart Inc. shifted its portfolio to Capital One Financial Corp., a move that was first announced in 2018. The decision comes just a few weeks after the lender installed Brian Doubles as its new chief executive officer, replacing its longtime leader, Margaret Keane.“This is a speed bump,” Jon Arfstrom, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note to clients. “We do not believe this loss (and Walmart in 2018) are due to any uncompetitive positioning for Synchrony, and we believe it comes down to preferences and negotiations and bottom-line profitability.”Gap, like most of its mall-based peers, has struggled to attract customers during the coronavirus pandemic. “We faced one of the most difficult years in our company’s history,” Chief Executive Officer Sonia Syngal said last month as Gap capped its fiscal year with fourth-quarter sales that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.What Bloomberg Intelligence Says:“Revenue and earnings from the Gap partnership have been steadily shrinking, so the retailer’s move to Barclays should reduce Synchrony’s costs and shift resources to new, high-potential cards with Venmo and Verizon.”-- David Ritter, BI fintech analystClick here to read the research.Its Banana Republic brand, which primarily sells work clothes, has been particularly weak. One bright spot for the retailer is its Athleta activewear brand, which passed $1 billion in sales in 2020.Gap said the new credit-card program will be a key component of the revamped rewards program it launched in September. Barclays will issue both private label and co-brand credit cards for Gap, with the latter using Mastercard Inc.’s payment network.“With our shared values and focus on inclusion, we look forward to working with Gap Inc. and Barclays to deliver an enhanced card program to their customers,” Linda Kirkpatrick, president of Mastercard’s North America business, said in an emailed statement.It will be Barclays’s first private-label card, and the bank has already begun investing in the systems it will need to provide the program, said Denny Nealon, CEO of the U.S. consumer bank at Barclays. The bank has also recently been investing in data and analytics and other efforts to improve technology.Barclays has been looking to diversify its card partnerships, which have long focused on airlines, cruises and hotel chains. The firm recently debuted a new card with the nonprofit AARP.“We’re absolutely thrilled to join forces with Gap, it’s an iconic American brand, its got a huge customer base,” Nealon said. “We think we can help them drive growth and success.”(Updates with executive commentary beginning in 11th paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- China ordered 34 internet corporations Tuesday to rectify their anti-competitive practices within the next month, signaling that Beijing’s scrutiny of its most powerful firms hasn’t ended with the conclusion of a probe into Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.Shares in Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Meituan extended losses after the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a stern statement emphasizing it will continue to eradicate abuses of information and market dominance among other violations. Also summoned to an ad-hoc meeting with the watchdog on Tuesday were industry leaders including TikTok owner ByteDance Ltd., search giant Baidu Inc. and JD.com Inc.Regulators warned internet companies to “heed Alibaba’s example,” reaffirming their intent to abolish forced exclusivity among other practices. The meeting -- organized jointly with the cyberspace and tax regulators -- came days after Beijing wrapped up a four-month probe into Alibaba by slapping a record $2.8 billion fine on the e-commerce giant for abuse of market dominance.The penalty was less severe than many feared and lifted a cloud of uncertainty hanging over founder Jack Ma’s internet empire. It also came after the Chinese central bank ordered an overhaul of his Ant Group Co. fintech titan.Alibaba’s shares have gained 7% since the start of the week, but its fellow Chinese internet giants have gyrated while investors digest the rapid-fire announcements and concerns grow that Beijing’s scrutiny will extend beyond Alibaba. On Tuesday, Tencent gave up early gains to finish down slightly while Meituan, video service Kuaishou Technology and JD all slid more than 3% in Hong Kong.“The base line of policies cannot be crossed, the red line of laws cannot be touched,” the market watchdog said in the statement on Tuesday.The investigation into Alibaba was one of the opening salvos in a campaign seemingly designed to curb the power of China’s internet leaders, which kicked off after Ma infamously rebuked “pawn shop” lenders, regulators who don’t get the internet, and the “old men” of the global banking community. Those comments set in motion an unprecedented regulatory offensive, including scuttling Ant’s $35 billion initial public offering.The 34 firms summoned Tuesday must now undergo complete rectification after conducting internal checks and inspections over the next month, and make a pledge to society to obey rules and laws, the antitrust watchdog said in its statement. Regulators will organize follow-up inspections and companies that continue to engage in abuses like forced exclusivity -- a practice that “flagrantly trampled and destroyed” market order -- will be dealt with severely.The regulator also highlighted abuses like acquisitions that squeeze out smaller rivals and burning through cash to grab market share in community group buying, currently the hottest e-commerce arena in China. Firms also need to address issues like counterfeiting, data leaks and tax evasion, according to the statement.“This is positive because the SAMR is giving the platforms one month to review their practices, rather than dish out fines and penalties without warning,” Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Vey-Sern Ling said. “They are using Alibaba as an example to deter misbehavior from the rest of the industry players. If these companies toe the line, industry competition can become healthier. ”(Updates with share action from the fifth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- For decades, it’s been an article of faith in China’s credit market: Companies controlled by the central government will get bailed out if they ever run into trouble.Now investors aren’t so sure.Mounting concern about the financial health of China Huarong Asset Management Co. -- a distressed-debt manager controlled by the country’s finance ministry -- has fueled a record tumble in the company’s dollar bonds that’s stoking fears of market contagion.While China Huarong has said it has access to liquidity and is making payments on time, bond prices suggest investors are bracing for a potential restructuring that would be the country’s most consequential since the financial crisis that gave rise to China Huarong and other bad-debt managers in the late 1990s.Whether or not that comes to pass, the selloff underscores a historic shift in the world’s second-largest credit market. As Chinese President Xi Jinping dials back support for weaker borrowers to reduce moral hazard, state-owned enterprises have replaced their private counterparts as the country’s biggest source of defaults.SOEs reneged on a record 79.5 billion yuan ($12.1 billion) of local bonds in 2020, lifting their share of onshore payment failures to 57% from 8.5% a year earlier, according to Fitch Ratings. The figure jumped to 72% in the first quarter of 2021.The big question now confronting investors is how much pain China’s government is willing to tolerate as it tries to wean the bond market off implicit guarantees. None of the state-owned companies that have defaulted so far -- including Peking University Founder Group Corp., which is ultimately controlled by China’s education ministry -- were considered as systemically important as China Huarong.Chinese authorities have tried to strike a balance between instilling more market discipline and avoiding a sudden loss of confidence that might spiral into a crisis. But the tumult surrounding China Huarong, some of whose bonds are now trading below 80 cents on the dollar, highlights how quickly investor sentiment can deteriorate even at a time when the economy is strengthening.“China’s credit market is entering a new era as SOEs are emerging as the main source of stress,” said Shuncheng Zhang, an analyst at Fitch Ratings. Whatever the outcome for China Huarong, policy makers will likely allow more defaults in the state sector to reduce moral hazard and cultivate a more mature debt market, he added.The stakes are high as Beijing considers which companies to support. SOEs had the equivalent of $3 trillion in onshore bonds outstanding at the end of last year, or 91% of the total, data compiled by Fitch show. A small but growing portion of those bonds is now owned by international money managers, after a steady relaxation of China’s restrictions on foreign investment in recent years.While the speed of China Huarong’s debt rout has jolted some investors, the company has long been a source of potential risk. Its former chairman, Lai Xiaomin, was executed earlier this year for bribery. Under his leadership, China Huarong expanded into areas including securities trading and trusts that were a significant departure from the company’s original mandate of helping banks dispose of bad debt.This month’s selloff was triggered by China Huarong’s failure to publish 2020 preliminary earnings by a March 31 deadline, which business publication Caixin reported was due to a significant financial restructuring.Losses in the bonds accelerated on Tuesday -- spreading to other Chinese issuers including property developers -- as traders circulated a separate Caixin report discussing scenarios for China Huarong that included bankruptcy. The company is still considered investment grade by Fitch, Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings, though all three have said they will review their ratings for a potential downgrade.China Huarong bonds extended declines on Wednesday, with prices falling by as much as 5 cents on the dollar. The yield on a 2022 note has reached 35%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.It’s not the first time Beijing has grappled with the risk of credit-market contagion. A surprise onshore default by a state-linked coal producer in November triggered a brief selloff as investors reassessed the creditworthiness of investment-grade Chinese debt. Further defaults, including by prominent chipmaker Tsinghua Unigroup Co., also caused short-term market ructions but never came close to precipitating a crisis.Some level of contagion is actually healthy for China’s bond market as it shows investors are responding to changing levels of risk, according to Charles Chang, an analyst at S&P Global. He said recent SOE defaults have triggered a stronger reaction in bonds of peers than was the case a few years ago.“The new thinking is that as long as it doesn’t cause systemic risk, there isn’t necessarily a need for a bailout,” said Ivan Chung, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service. “More SOE defaults are expected to occur in the future but they will likely be concentrated in fiscally weaker regions and sectors with heavy legacy debt and labor burdens.”It’s unclear whether Chinese leaders have discussed the fate of China Huarong’s bondholders, but there are signs authorities might be preparing to provide support to the company if needed.The finance ministry is considering transferring its controlling stake in China Huarong to a unit of the nation’s sovereign wealth fund that has more experience resolving debt risks, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing a person familiar with the matter. The finance ministry aims to complete a transfer in the next few months, though any final decisions will require approval from China’s State Council, the person said.“The transfer, if realized, may offer more flexibility in financial support to Huarong,” said Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Dan Wang. “But it also indicates that Huarong’s debt risk may be much higher than the market had previously expected.”(Adds today’s trading in 14th paragraph. An earlier version of this story corrected the spelling of Huarong in the 12th paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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