COVID-19 variants to be the ‘biggest wildcard’ in recovery process: Doctor

Dr. Taison Bell, Assistant Professor of Medicine in the divisions of Infectious Disease and Pulmonary/Critical Care Medicine at the University of Virginia, joins Yahoo Finance’s Kristin Myers to discuss the latest coronavirus updates.

Video Transcript

KRISTIN MEYERS: Now almost 100 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine have been distributed, and last night the president ordered all states to make the vaccine eligible for all adults by the beginning of May. So let's chat this more with Dr. Taison Bell, Assistant Professor of Medicine in the Divisions of Infectious Disease and Pulmonary Critical Care Medicine at the University of Virginia.

Dr. Bell, always great to have you here with us. So all adults will be eligible for the vaccine by the beginning of May. Given the way things are going right now-- the speed of vaccine distribution that we have-- how long do you think it will take to return to life as normal? Do you think we can hit that July 4th deadline that the president put out last night?

TAISON BELL: Well, first of all, it was very good that they did put a deadline out to give people hope that there can be some end to this and some reason to keep striving and [INAUDIBLE] measures and getting vaccinated. I do think that our current clip of vaccinations do need to pick up a little bit. We're doing around 2.2, three million people per day. We've given 93 million doses. And at that rate, it would be around mid-August or so which we would cover the roughly 255 million Americans left to go. But they do expect that we'll be able to increase that number by a significant amount by deploying more federal resources like mass vaccination centers, deploying National Guard. So I do think that we'll get there. I have hope.

KRISTIN MEYERS: So then that begs the question, if July 4th is the deadline, and with just a little bit of an extra push here you think that we can get there, does that mean Americans are going to have a summer after all?

TAISON BELL: I think that there is hope that we'll have a summer that's closer to what we normally expect with summer. I don't think things will get completely back to normal. I do think that there'll still be some public health measures in place. The administration did mention that they're going to recommend smaller gatherings. We can expect that. But I do think that we'll have a more reasonable summer.

KRISTIN MEYERS: Now, just for anyone watching, I just want to note here that you're actually joining us from the COVID ICU at UVA right now. What are some of those restrictions that we need to maintain and that we need to keep in place even as we are all getting vaccinated?

TAISON BELL: Well, I would still suggest that we should still be wearing masks when we're out, we should still try to avoid large gatherings, we should practice physical distancing, and, in general, not do anything unless it's completely necessary. The CDC has released guidelines on people who have been fully vaccinated as kind of an incentive to obtain vaccines. But for the time being, we're still-- their recommendation's still to stick with many of these measures that we've been doing until we can get to that point where we have herd immunity.

KRISTIN MEYERS: Now, I feel as if we have a lot to celebrate right now. I don't know if it's the summer coming and the sun is out or the fact that the cases are declining, the vaccinations are increasing, but I am feeling, I think-- and a lot of people I think would agree with me-- a lot more hopeful about this pandemic. More hopeful than I have been. But the case is not the same, at least when we look overseas, especially in Europe. Things seem a little bit more bleak there. I'm wondering right now if you're also seeing the picture as rosy as I'm, you know, painting it right now. Or do you think that there is a potential out there for another wave, more spikes, to come imminently or in the next couple of months?

TAISON BELL: Well, I will say I've learned to guard my optimism when it comes to this pandemic. But I do think that we're at a bit of a turning point. The one difference is that we've got vaccines rolling out at this point and they're incredibly effective at slowing the spread of virus and preventing death and severe COVID-19. And I think that's been one of those factors that are going into why we're not seeing this huge rebound in cases. So I do have hope that hopefully we can get cases down to a more manageable level, we'll continue with vaccine ramp up, and then finally turn a corner on this.

KRISTIN MEYERS: What do you think the biggest risk is right now, at least here at home in the United States? The biggest risk to making that happen, to getting and reaching that herd immunity. Is it ourselves and our own behavior? Or is there something else.

TAISON BELL: It's really all of the above. I think the biggest wild card from a scientific standpoint right now are the variants and thinking how much of an impact is that going to be. We've seen that they can affect your amount of antibodies that are protective, though they seem to still be effective and protect against hospitalizations and death. But they do spread more easily than the original versions of the coronavirus. And so will that end up becoming a huge problem in the United States is yet to be seen. So far we haven't seen that and I certainly hope that continues to be the case.

KRISTIN MEYERS: Now, of course, you're mentioning some of those variations and we have heard a lot about how effective the vaccines are against some of those mutations, some of those strains. So I do want to ask you about the vaccine because we now have the Novavax vaccine, we have the AstraZeneca vaccine, which a lot of countries have actually suspended because of concerns over blood clots. Of course, we have Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, Pfizer. I'm wondering if there is a vaccine, or perhaps one or two vaccines, that you think stand out above the rest. Or, you know, when Americans get into the doctor's office and they say, hey, we have X vaccine in front of us for you today, should Americans just take what's handed to them?

TAISON BELL: What I always tell people, at least in this environment where we have constrained supply, we have more demand than vaccines that are available, I say get the one that's available to you. These topline efficacy numbers are really hard to compare one-to-one because as many of these trials were performed in very different times with very different virus. So, for instance, Moderna and Pfizer were performed without many of these variants circulating around which we know can have an effect on the efficacy.

But at the bottom line, if we're talking about protecting from hospitalization-- so getting sick enough that you go to the hospital for COVID-19, die from COVID-19-- all of these candidates work extremely well in that regard. And so this is how we break the back of the pandemic by preventing people from getting sick. So I say get the one that's available to you.

KRISTIN MEYERS: All right. Very good words indeed. Dr. Taison Bell, Assistant Professor of Medicine at the University of Virginia. Thanks so much for joining us today.