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Crude oil prices fall as energy officials sort output demands

Yahoo Finance senior markets reporter Jared Blikre discusses the move lower in crude oil prices as futures settle.

Video Transcript

DAVE BRIGGS: Let's get you up to speed now on the energy markets. As we mentioned, oil prices plummeting ahead of the holiday. Jared Blikre here with what's behind the move and where prices settled in. Jared, it's been an interesting couple of days in the oil markets.

JARED BLIKRE: Yeah, forget the holiday shortened week here. Energy is trading 1% to the downside in stocks. And let's take a look at the futures. On our heat map here, it is at the bottom of the board with WTI down more than 4%. Brent just a little bit lower than that. It did settle at about 2:45 PM, trading in the electronic markets still. And here we can see off about 4%.

Now, this is on news that-- well, we have these price caps taking effect in Europe on December 5th. And that's going to be in the range of $65 to $70 a barrel. Now, you notice the WTI, that is $77 a barrel. Where it's being delivered in the Urals, in the Mediterranean, most of that has a 60 handle right now. And for that matter, Russia produces, takes the stuff out of the ground for about $20 a barrel. So they're going to be sitting pretty on some nice profits either way.

However, let's take a look at the longer term picture here. This is going to be a three-month view. And you can see, we are at the lowest point. We're just about tying these lows that we had in September. And on an intraday basis, we actually got all the way down to $75. That was handily rejected. But now we are probing lower once again. Let me show you a longer term chart. This is a three-year chart, showing when crude oil went negative. That was WTI back in April of 2020.

Now this is a huge potential level. If we were to break down below this, I would guess that we would substantially be-- or we would be in store for some substantially lower prices for a protracted period of time. This is hand-in-hand with the expected recession that is getting priced into Western markets for the first, I would say, quarter to second quarter of 2023. So a lot is being played out and is being witnessed by the-- as reflected in the prices of WTI.

We also had the Department of Energy coming out earlier today with the latest weekly stock figures. There was a drop in weekly stocks in crude oil of about 3 million barrels. And then there was an increase, a surprise increase in gasoline stocks. So altogether, we are having some outsized price action in this holiday shortened week. And I will just say, in 2009, we had a huge, huge day for oil in that Thanksgiving, Black Friday holiday.