Doctor: ‘It’s probably going to be springtime’ before general public gets COVID-19 vaccine

Dr. Sara Andrabi, Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine joins Yahoo Finance's Kristin Myers to break down the latest coronavirus developments as hopes of a vaccine continue to rise.

Video Transcript

DR. SARA ANDRABI: I want to bring in Dr. Sara Andrabi now. She's an assistant professor of Emergency Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine to chat a little bit more about this. So Doctor, I want to start with this latest news on AstraZeneca and the vaccine efficacy there. It's on average, as Anjalee was describing for everyone, roughly 70%. This is a lot lower, of course, than what we've heard from Pfizer, from what we've heard from Moderna, which is roughly 95% across them both. I mean, you are the doctor here. For someone like myself, I think, OK, well that means the vaccine just isn't as good. I wouldn't want that vaccine at all. Is that true? Does that make sense? Or it's like once you reach a certain threshold, it's OK. It's good to take.

DR. SARA ANDRABI: Yeah. Thanks, Kristin, for having me on the show. So we have some great news in terms of projected vaccine effectiveness. We're seeing numbers as high as 95% efficacy when Dr. Fauci said he would be happy at 75% and the FDA said they would be happy with 60%. And this is eight months later, right? And for reference, pre-pandemic pandemic, eight years would have been considered speedy in terms of developing these vaccines.

The Pfizer vaccine is showing 94% efficacy in about 44,000 participants, it needs to be kept really, really cold, like a deep freezer. And it's good for five days. The company has actually created its own GPS tracked coolers filled with dry ice to distribute it. But pharmacies and doctor's offices don't tend to have the types of freezers to store these. And the Moderna vaccine is showing 94.5% efficacy with about 30,000 study participants. It needs a freezer too, but one that most medical offices--

This vaccine is good for up to 30 days. And most recently, AstraZeneca announced that its vaccine had a combined efficacy of 70% on an interim analysis. So they're the earliest of all the studies. And this study involves 12,000 participants currently. This data is combining two different dosing regimens, with one regimen that has 90% efficacy and another that has 62%. The 90% efficacy was shown when participants took half a dose initially and then took the full dose some weeks later.

And the phase three trials are ongoing in the US. And they may be shifting to this dose, so their data is still very early and could change. The benefits though with this vaccine is that it's an older technology, so it can manufacture much more in a smaller amount of time. In fact, AstraZeneca is promising to make more within the next year than Pfizer and Moderna combined. It also can be kept at normal frigid temperatures, making it more accessible and both developed and developing countries.

DR. SARA ANDRABI: Sorry, Doctor, I was totally muted.

DR. SARA ANDRABI: I could see your mouth moving.

DR. SARA ANDRABI: Still in the work from home life. So talk to me then, I know that we have to distribute this vaccine, essentially, to the 300 plus million people inside the United States. So I know you just ran through some of the stats, some of the data for these vaccines. Is a 70% efficacy rate still good enough then to distribute to folks? I know that you mentioned that Doctor Fauci said he would be happy with a 75%.

And I know when it comes to AstraZeneca in some of their trials, they actually were able to hit as high as 90% depending on how they distributed the vaccine. Just wondering if you were if you had the AstraZeneca vaccine in your hands right now, would you say, OK, you know what? Even with this average rate of 70%, this is still great enough to roll out to folks.

DR. SARA ANDRABI: And so that's where I think like the different phases and also looking at what has worked so far is going to come into play because they've done a few different modalities in terms of dosages. But when they look at that specific dosing of doing an initial half dose and then another full dose a few weeks later, that's where they're releasing the 90% efficacy. So I see that's where we kind of go in terms of getting vaccinations done.

But next steps would be looking into the logistics of distribution. We have got to start looking at anything that can be done to expedite this transition so that Americans can get access to the vaccine when it's out. The first Americans to receive the COVID-19 vaccine could be immunized as early as the second week of December. And initially, that supply is going to be a lot less than the demand.

It will be up to the states to define the high risk groups to first receive that vaccine. So this could include front line staff, at risk individuals, elderly, nursing home patients. But by the time the general public gets a hold of it, it's probably going to be springtime. So to get to that goal of 70% vaccinated, it will be summer time at the least. And it's important to note that we need vaccination and not just vaccines.

And health departments have limited staff, so they will have to figure out how to ramp up their staffing to administer vaccines and keep track of who's receiving them. And if we go down kind of the AstraZeneca route where most of these vaccines are going to require two doses, so it's not just a one and done situation, it's going to be a massive public health undertaking to make this a reality.

KRISTEN MYERS: Let's switch now from the vaccine to the antibody treatment from Regeneron. It's the first to get that emergency use authorization, which for everyone at home essentially means that it hasn't gone through all of the steps, all of the rigor, for example, from the FDA that they would normally do in normal times before they roll a treatment like this out. Are there any question marks, any dose of skepticism in your head before taking something like this? Or is it do you think that if someone were to come into an emergency room and has coronavirus and has to have treatment that they're saying that they should probably take it and that it would be better for them to take this treatment than to go without?

DR. SARA ANDRABI: Right. And I think that's where it gets back to looking at the data. It's one of the experimental drugs that President Trump received while he was battling the coronavirus. And it's been reproofed for emergency use by the FDA. This is the second antibody treatment to win emergency use approval from the FDA. And this treatment combines two antibodies and administers them together by an IV.

In a clinical trial, about 800 people, the combination was shown to be significantly reducing virus levels within days of treatment. And the FDA made clear, though, that this drug is only for treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19 in people 12 years and older who are more high risk of developing more severe symptoms. It's not for patients who are hospitalized because of COVID-19 and it's not for patients who require oxygen therapy because of the virus.

So you have to look at those kind of uses. The emergency authorization of these antibodies administered together offers health providers and other tool for combating the pandemic. So we are excited about that. Both this and the other FDA approved drug are synthetic versions of human antibodies that mimic the immune system's ability to fight off harmful pathogens. And so what they do is they bind to coronavirus and prevent it from invading cells.

And like you said, neither drug has yet gotten full FDA approval, which entails a much more rigorous review and takes a lot longer to complete. On Thursday, the FDA also granted emergency use authorization to baricitinib, which when used with remdesivir has been shown to be effective in battling more severe cases of COVID-19, the ones that do require hospitalization or that do require someone to be on a ventilator.

Emergency use authorizations are granted during public health emergencies when a treatment could be effective. And people have gone to ask why the president received this. The CEO of the drug company said that he received a request to access this and they waited very carefully against our established criteria for compassionate use, which is an FDA pathway meant for exceptional circumstances.

KRISTEN MYERS: So this is really important information that you're sharing with us. And I'm glad because I didn't know all of those full details there, at least when it comes to the treatment. I want to ask you now about the holiday. I think it's something that everyone is thinking about, Thanksgiving being this week, being able to see their family, being able to see their friends. Now, this is something that folks are saying, frankly, we really should not be doing right now.

Wondering as you're seeing it, what are you anticipating? Again, you're a professor of emergency medicine. So a lot of these folks probably would be coming in through the emergency room if they are experiencing trouble from the virus. What are you anticipating and what are your fellow physicians anticipating in, let's say, three weeks from now after we have this holiday? People probably going to be out there flouting a lot of the rules because you've seen it happen throughout the summer. And I know that coronavirus fatigue is at an all time high. What are you guys worried about and anticipating the most for about a month from now?

DR. SARA ANDRABI: Yeah. So on Thursday, the CDC recommended against Thanksgiving travel by air and train, right? Despite officials cautioning against it, airports across the nation saw some of the highest numbers to date. I mean just on Friday, security agents screened over a million passengers and then another million on Saturday. The CDC also says and most COVID infections are spread by people with no symptoms. And the weather's colder, so people are staying indoors. And as we know, viruses love to spread in these types of settings.

And this is why our traditional viral seasons, like the flu annually, tends to be in winter months and not so much in summer. So it makes sense that the CDC is recommending against indoor gatherings with individuals outside of your household. Now, there are alternatives. They could include small gatherings by the outdoors, which I mean no more than 10 people. You can get-- and sorry, my light went out, individually packaged food items, as well. And using video modalities, such as Zoom or FaceTime to see your loved ones.

Many have said video chatting during the pandemic has helped them stay in touch with friends and family members who they otherwise wouldn't see. And I'm going to miss our annual Thanksgiving traditions, but I also want to be able to enjoy our traditions next Thanksgiving and for many Thanksgivings to come. So we'll have to pass.

In terms of your question you for what we're going to see, in Texas the ICUs are being pushed to their limits. In a Odesa, Texas, 35% to 45% of people getting tested are testing positive for COVID-19. Hospitals are sending patients with hypoxia or low blood oxygen home with oxygen tanks, something that could usually get you admitted to the hospital. But right now, there's just no space in the hospital for those patients.

In El Paso, Texas one in every 24 people has COVID-19. El Paso has almost 50,000 new COVID infections in the past five weeks, hospitals have been overwhelmed, and federal and state agencies have rushed additional medical personnel there. For more than 50 COVID deaths with another 450 under investigation. And deaths have mounted so rapidly that at least nine mobile morgues are storing bodies there. And I say, yes, we're in the front lines in the hospital. But to the public who's watching, you guys are front lines as well. When you go to the grocery store, you go out, wear a mask, practice hand hygiene. Keep your distance from others. Please help, stop the spread.