Inflation: U.S. CPI climbs to 6.8% in November, matching estimates
Yahoo Finance Live anchors Brian Sozzi, Julie Hyman, and Brian Cheung review the latest Consumer Price Index data for November.
Video Transcript
JULIE HYMAN: We've got to talk about that CPI number and break it down here and look at the effects that we are seeing and the various components we're seeing. So again, that headline number coming in with a year over year gain of 6.8%. There, you're seeing the month over month numbers as well. That was very slightly hotter than estimated.
But the year over year number, although an acceleration from the prior month, was in line with estimates. And there were perhaps what people like to call the "whisper" or "shadow" estimates out there that were for print that was even higher, perhaps fanned in part by some of the preemptive damage control that the White House was trying to do, coming out and talking about the number in advance with some trepidation. So that number, while it is a hot number, is not quite as bad as some had feared.
What is interesting to me, Brian Cheung, as well in these numbers-- first of all, if you back out food and energy, you get 4.9%. That's a number closer to what the Fed looks at. But I'm also looking at real average hourly earnings year over year of-- down 1.9%, excuse me. So we're not seeing people earn-- people's earnings keeping pace with these overall inflation numbers at all.
BRIAN CHEUNG: Yeah, for what it's worth, this is not usually the time where we want to look too closely at the wages. You know, those monthly employment reports, in addition to other measures, like the Employment Cost Index, are usually better for that. But, yes, this is undoubtedly a hot print, as you mentioned. You would have to rewind to when-- I think it was Olivia Newton-John was topping the Billboard to get a print this hot in 1982.
But the headline number coming in at 0.8% on a month over month basis-- that was above the Street's estimates of 0.7%. But when you take a look at the overall year over year figures that clocked in at 6.8%, that was much hotter than what we had seen at 6.2% in the prior month in October. And then when you look at the core numbers, which you have ahead of you, if you strip out those more volatile components, like food and energy, still pretty hot-- 4.9% year over year growth, compared to 4.6% in the month of October.
But what's interesting is parsing out the individual categories within the CPI. Obviously, this is a basket of items. So when you take a look, for example, at gasoline, that was a big reason why the top line year over year number was as large as it was, gasoline remaining elevated in November compared to October at 6.1%.
Used cars and trucks-- remember we were talking about semiconductors hopefully taking some steam out of the rising prices for used cars and trucks? That still rose by 2.5% on a month over month basis. And then, of course, you want to talk about owners' equivalent rent.
This would be a stickier form of inflation, if people are inking one-month-- or one-year or two-year leases or taking in 30-year mortgage, for example. That increased by 0.4%. That's not a huge amount, but it's definitely a tick up over the last few months and could be something that could point to more persistent inflation, given especially how large a share it is of people's expenditures per month.
And then two last things I want to point out-- airline fares. If you're trying to fly around maybe next year and buying tickets now, getting very expensive-- up 4.7% in the month of November. But not all categories increased. Take a look, for example, at admission to sporting events, which fell actually month over month by 4.8%. Not exactly sure exactly what sports are seeing deflation in prices, but at least there's one category in this hot report that's seeing price declines.
BRIAN SOZZI: Hockey, Brian, is seeing deflation. Nobody's watching hockey. But I do want to mention this here. Look, I'm looking at inflationary food. I've been talking about this all year-- all year long. I think it remains a major problem here. The CPI-- I know in the index for meat, poultry, fish, and eggs-- up 12.8%.
