Alphaone Capital Partners founding partner Dan Niles on his 'three market phases in 2020' and where the opportunities are.
Alphaone Capital Partners founding partner Dan Niles on his 'three market phases in 2020' and where the opportunities are.
Individual investors have never been more worried about a U.S. stock market crash. This counterintuitive reaction is because investor sentiment is a contrarian indicator. Historical data on investor beliefs about crash probabilities comes from Yale University finance professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller.
(Bloomberg) -- Investor David Einhorn said technology stocks are in an “enormous” bubble and he has added a set of short wagers to profit from it.“The question at hand is where are we in the psychology of this bubble?” the head of hedge fund Greenlight Capital wrote in an Oct. 27 note, seen by Bloomberg. “Our working hypothesis, which might be disproven, is that September 2, 2020 was the top and the bubble has already popped. If so, investor sentiment is in the process of shifting from greed to complacency.”Tech stocks have driven the market’s rally this year. The Nasdaq 100 Index is up 33% since Jan. 1, led by gains in Zoom Video Communications Inc. and Tesla Inc. By contrast, the S&P 500 has risen 5.3%.As signs of a bubble, Einhorn points to a mania in IPOs, a huge market concentration in a small group of stocks or a single sector, extraordinary valuations and “incredible” trading volumes in speculative instruments.As a result, Greenlight has adjusted the portfolio of companies its wagering against by adding a fresh so-called bubble basket of mostly “second-tier companies and recent IPOs trading at remarkable valuations,” he wrote. Einhorn has long held what he calls a bubble basket of short wagers which have included tech giants such as Amazon.com Inc. and Netflix Inc.A spokesman for the firm declined to comment.This isn’t the first time Einhorn has flagged a tech bubble. In early 2016, he “prematurely identified what we thought was a bubble,” he wrote in the letter.It’s been a difficult road for Greenlight recently. The fund is down 16.1% through September, and has been trying to recoup losses that began in 2015. As of Jan. 1, the firm managed $2.6 billion, down from a peak of $12 billion.Other highlights from the letter:The coming election may rank “among the most perilous times, absent war, in modern American history.” A “tempest” of troubles related to the Covid pandemic -- including inequities, violence and calls for social change -- could explode after the election, no matter which side wins.The fund started “medium-sized” long positions in information technology company Synnex Corp., Austrian sensor maker AMS AG, and ATM-manufacturer NCR Corp.While a few Greenlight employees are working from the firm’s New York offices, which have been open since late summer, most of the staff continues to work from home, he said.(Adds additional comments on tech starting in seventh paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Microsoft Q1 2021 earnings beat analyst expectations on continued cloud strength.
(Bloomberg) -- Wells Fargo & Co. shares fell to their lowest level in more than a decade Tuesday as investors waiting for Chief Executive Officer Charlie Scharf to announce his strategy have seen it will involve job cuts and likely business sales.Shares declined as much as 3.9% to their lowest since June 2009, dipping further than the 24-firm KBW Bank Index. Scharf, who took over last October, has been reviewing each of the firm’s businesses and is preparing to lay out his turnaround plan for the embattled lender. He’s said he would provide more information to investors in January.Scharf has promised a simpler structure, and is examining sales of units including the corporate-trust business, the student-lending portfolio and the asset manager. The bank has also embarked on a job-cutting initiative that could ultimately result in workforce reductions numbering in the tens of thousands.Read More on Wells Fargo:Wells Fargo Is Said to Mull $1 Billion-Plus Corporate-Trust SaleWells Fargo Cuts Dozens of Fixed-Income Research AnalystsWells Fargo Weighs Asset-Manager Sale as Sector ConsolidatesBuffett Inches Toward Wells Fargo Exit as Scharf Sets CourseWells Fargo Asset Cap Is Now One of the Costliest Bank PenaltiesWells Fargo, still under a Federal Reserve-imposed asset cap, has been the worst-performing company in the KBW Bank Index this year, with shares down more than 59%. The Fed limit has kept the bank from offsetting low rates with balance-sheet growth the way many rivals have. A Joe Biden win in the U.S. presidential election next week could prolong that timeline, according to Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg.“We expect Wells Fargo to push the Federal Reserve to release it from the asset cap before Biden can replace top Fed officials in late 2021 and early 2022,” Seiberg wrote in a note. “We see that as an uphill fight, which is why the asset cap could stay in place into 2023.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Huachen Automotive Group Holding, the state-owned parent of BMW's main Chinese joint-venture partner, has defaulted on a bond payment, heightening fears about the debt-ridden carmaker's fate.The company was not able to repay a 1 billion yuan (US$149.1 million) corporate bond paying 5.3 per cent in annual coupon, which it sold via a private placement three years ago. The group is "working hard to raise money and discussing with investors to iron out the issue," according to a Shanghai Stock Exchange filing.Huachen is the parent of Hong Kong-listed Brilliance China Automotive Holdings, which owns 25 per cent of a venture with BMW, making Series 1, 3 and 5 passenger sedans in the Liaoning provincial capital of Shenyang in north-eastern China.Get the latest insights and analysis from our Global Impact newsletter on the big stories originating in China.Its default is the latest in a long list of missed payments by China's private sector and state-owned borrowers, as the slowest economic growth pace in decades cause earnings to dwindle and make it harder to meet payment schedules in the US$15 trillion onshore bond market."Default by a state-owned carmaker could affect bond market sentiment," said Gu Weiyong, the chief investment officer at Shanghai-based asset manager Ucon Investment. "The grim reality is that many Chinese companies have yet to entirely emerge out of the Covid-19 pandemic."SCMP Infographics: Global carmakers and their China venture partnersChina's automotive industry, which surpassed the United States in 2009 as the world's largest automotive market, has been saddled with almost two years of declining sales, as the slowest economic growth pace in decades deterred households form big ticket purchases. Sales began to recover in the second half, but not enough to avert 2020 being the third consecutive year of declining sales.When the coronavirus pandemic was first reported in China during the first quarter, production was severely curtailed, as assemblies and parts makers were shut throughout the country, with their impact reverberating far and wide across the global industry.New cars in a parking lot of the Brilliance factory in the Liaoning provincial capital of Shenyang in north-eastern China on July 17, 2017. Photo: AFP alt=New cars in a parking lot of the Brilliance factory in the Liaoning provincial capital of Shenyang in north-eastern China on July 17, 2017. Photo: AFPBrilliance China's first-half net profit rose 25.2 per cent from last year to 4.05 billion yuan. Factoring out the net income contributed by BMW brand, the Hong Kong-listed company posted a first-half loss of 340 million yuan.The Liaoning provincial government is considering taking Brilliance China private, according to local media reports. The company's shares fell 4.8 per cent to HK$6.78 (87 US cents) in Hong Kong trading on Tuesday.Local authorities and China's financial regulators are particularly wary of defaults or any financial misadventure that could potentially set off civic unrest, in a nation faced with a dearth of investible options.They tend to step in to inject much-needed cash, or extend payment holidays, to help defaulting borrowers survive. It was not until March 2014 that the market saw its first default, when Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology failed to make an interest payment.This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2020 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. Copyright (c) 2020. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
The new Supreme Court justice could help kill the health care law. What if you rely on it?
First Solar topped analyst expectations in its latest quarterly results and reinstated financial guidance for the fourth quarter after the bell on Tuesday. The company posted adjusted earnings per share of $1.45 on revenue of $928 million. First Solar said in a statement that revenue surged "due to international project sales, and an increase in the volume of modules sold to third parties."
Individual retirement accounts and 401(k) plans often impose penalties if you take money out of a retirement account too soon or too late. There's usually an early withdrawal penalty if you make a withdrawal before age 59 1/2 and a penalty for failing to take annual distributions after age 72. Here's a look at the 401(k) and IRA penalties you won't have to pay this year.
Raytheon posted mixed Q3 results as the collapse in global air travel hit its aviation businesses hard.
There's still time to benefit from 2020's IRA contribution limits. And odds are that you haven't put in the maximum allowed yet.
Software giant Microsoft late Tuesday smashed Wall Street's sales and earnings targets for the September quarter. The Microsoft earnings report caused MSFT stock to waver in extended trades.
(Bloomberg) -- The world’s biggest exchange-traded fund is losing cash at a faster pace than any of its peers as investors seek lower fees amid a wave of cost cutting.Traders have yanked $33 billion from SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) so far this year, the most in the industry, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While the exodus was concentrated in February and March, when the coronavirus pandemic roiled global markets, it put the $294 billion fund tracking the U.S. stock benchmark at odds with the broader equity ETF universe -- which has lured $119 billion in 2020.As issuers race to slash costs, SPY’s relatively hefty expense-ratio could be one of the reasons limiting its rebound. The ETF carries a fee of 0.095% that’s roughly triple the cost of investing in three of its largest competitors. That means investors who are re-entering the market may be gravitating toward cheaper options, according to analysts.“As the market recovered, investors put that money back to work in lower-cost products,” said Nate Geraci, president of investment-advisory firm the ETF Store in Overland Park, Kansas. “My expectation is SPY will continue ‘bleeding’ assets, regardless of the market environment, as investors continue flocking to lower-fee competitors.”While SPY is leading outflows, the $162.8 billion Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) -- with its 0.03% expense ratio -- has taken in $23.3 billion in 2020, the most among its peers. Meanwhile, the lower-cost SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPLG), which has the same holdings as SPY but charges 0.03%, has lured $2.9 billion of new cash.Vanguard Group, the second-largest issuer in the $4.8 trillion ETF market, has vaulted ahead of its competitors, with $148 billion worth of inflows in 2020. BlackRock Inc. and State Street Corp. have attracted $79 billion and $19 billion, respectively. While Vanguard’s flows have been boosted by the conversion of some its mutual-fund clients to lower-cost ETF shares, that process has only been responsible for $22.8 billion worth of its inflows, according to Vanguard spokesman Freddy Martino.“Former SPY money may not have gone back to SPY, but to lower-cost equivalents or to active, thematic or ESG funds,” said Linda Zhang, chief executive officer of New York-based Purview Investments, which specializes in active-ETF research and managed solutions. “It’s probably a combination of both.”To Matt Bartolini of State Street Global Advisors, the money that left SPY during the height of the virus turmoil has rotated into sector-specific funds, such as State Street’s Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE). But with just one week until the U.S. presidential election, the flow picture could soon be upended once more, he said.“A lot of those investors have migrated to other sectors of single-stock names,” said Bartolini, SSGA’s head of SPDR Americas Research. “Who knows what’s going to happen this election, but there’s definitely going to be money in motion.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
Apple has been an American success story several times over with the Mac, iPod, iPhone and other inventions. But is Apple stock a buy now? Here's what its stock chart and earnings show.
Las Vegas Sands aims to sell its hotel-casinos on the Las Vegas Strip with its properties largely empty amid the coronavirus pandemic.
AMD and Las Vegas Sands are also in play Tuesday morning as the stock market tries to recover from Monday’s selloff.
Dow Jones futures were in focus late Tuesday after Apple and Tesla led the Nasdaq higher. Microsoft earnings smashed estimates after the close.
(Bloomberg) -- Callaway Golf Co. confirmed Tuesday that it plans to buy the remainder of driving-range chain Topgolf Entertainment Group, providing the golf-club giant with a new source of growth.The deal values closely held Topgolf at about $2 billion, the companies said in a statement after Tuesday’s market close. Callaway, the maker of Big Bertha drivers and other equipment, already owns 14% of Topgolf. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier Tuesday that the acquisition was in the works.Callaway shares briefly climbed as much as 8.9% in late trading after the deal was confirmed. They’re down 9% this year through Tuesday’s close.Topgolf driving ranges -- which feature food, drinks and kids’ games -- are seen as a way to bring younger players to golf, which has suffered from aging demographics and the closing of hundreds of courses in recent years. They also have held up during the pandemic because golfers can practice their swing while remaining socially distant.The companies said they expect pro forma revenue of about $2.8 billion and see it growing to $3.2 billion by 2022, projecting 10% annual growth thereafter. They expect the deal to close early next year.Callaway, located in Carlsbad, California, first invested in Dallas-based Topgolf in 2006.(Updates throughout with deal confirmation.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
At least a half dozen analysts picked up coverage of the stock on Monday following Palantir’s direct stock listing on the New York Stock Exchange in late September.
When interest rates started to drop in the spring of 2020, my husband and I took notice. We watched as the rates on both fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages continued to…
FireEye Inc. reports record results in the extended session Tuesday as the cybersecurity company manages to stem sales declines in its legacy products while building out its cloud sales.