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NYC restaurateur: Coronavirus stimulus bill won’t work

New York restaurateur Tyler Hollinger argues that the restaurant industry needs more specific help from the government.

Latest Stories

  • Plug Power Stock Jumps On Raised 2021, 2024 Targets; FuelCell Surges

    Plug Power raised its 2021 guidance and a 2024 target as fuel cell stocks continue to rally amid hopes for more green energy policies.

  • Column: Trade the GameStop short squeeze if you wish, but it's very stupid

    The GameStop stock-trading frenzy is all about punishing short sellers, but why?

  • Goldman Sachs warns of a dangerous bubble in these 39 stocks

    Goldman Sachs sounds the alarm on some very hot tech stocks.

  • Another GameStop? Here Are the Next 10 Most Shorted Small-Caps.

    Highly shorted stocks are being targeted by some investors trying to force people who have bet the prices will fall into covering. Watch Dillard’s and AMC Entertainment.

  • All Eyes on AMD Stock Ahead of 4Q20 Earnings

    Beating Intel on most metrics has become commonplace for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in recent years. While Intel delivered a solid quarterly report last week, the Street’s reaction was tempered by the company’s uncertain future. AMD will report Q4 earnings today after the bell, and in contrast to the issues plaguing its rival, RBC analyst Mitch Steves believes AMD has no such problems right now. “Heading into the Dec-qtr print,” the 5-star analyst said, “We remain positive on AMD and wouldn't be surprised to see a beat and raise quarter with potential for the firm to generate revenues at or above the high-end.” So, what to look out for? Steves thinks PC demand, GPU demand and improving server trends are the reasons why “revenue has high potential for upside.” That said, with several new products to push, the analyst says it is “unlikely that yields are high on the initial batch of chips,” and gross margins won’t “begin to beat until Q1/Q2,” when yields are likely to rapidly improve and gross margins should begin to climb higher. Looking ahead, Steves anticipates “above seasonal Q1 guidance,” as the company is set to benefit from PC and server share gains. Also coming up, is the pending closure of the Xilinx acquisition. The deal is expected to be settled before the end of the year. The analyst believes within the first 12-18 months there is “potential for $300M to $600M in communications revenue synergies,” and expects significant margin expansion overtime as the semiconductor powerhouse builds “economies of scale.” Summing up his investment thesis, Steves said, “We remain positive on the AMD story given the pullback (competitor announcements). Our view is that share gains will continue until the beginning of 2023 at minimum.“ All in all, Steves rates AMD shares an Outperform (i.e., Buy), while the price target gets a nudge upwards. The figure moves from $100 to $105, suggesting room for upside of ~11%. (To watch Steves’ track record, click here) So, that’s RBC’s view. What does the rest of the Street have in mind for AMD ahead of the print? The stock currently has a Moderate Buy consensus rating, based on 14 Buys, 6 Holds and 2 Sells. The average price target clocks in at $97.53 and suggests modest upside of 4% from current levels. (See AMD stock analysis on TipRanks) To find good ideas for chip stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

  • From GameStop to BlackBerry, here's why the shorts are getting squeezed

    Top news and what to watch in the markets on Tuesday, January 26, 2021.

  • It isn’t just GameStop: Here are some of the other heavily shorted stocks shooting higher

    The dynamic that has seemingly contributed to a short squeeze in the stock of videogame retailer GameStop Corp. also appears to be affecting shares in a host of other heavily shorted companies.

  • Retail trading frenzy sparks jitters for noted GameStop short-seller

    Short-seller Andrew Left does not usually smoke. Left, who has built a reputation by targeting companies he thinks are overvalued, is as convinced as ever that videogame retailer GameStop is a dying business whose stock price will fall sharply someday. GameStop did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

  • Massive internet outage hits U.S. East Coast taking down Gmail, Slack, and Amazon AWS

    Large swaths of the internet were down on Tuesday afternoon, as outages hit everything from Google's Gmail to Slack.

  • 2 Big Dividend Stocks Yielding at Least 7%; Raymond James Says ‘Buy’

    For investors seeking a strong dividend player, there are some market segments that are known for their high-yield dividends, making them logical places to start looking for reliable payers. The hydrocarbon sector, oil and gas production and mainstreaming, is one of these. The sector deals in a products that’s essential – our world runs on oil and its by-products. And while overhead for energy companies is high, they still have a market for their deliverables, leading to a ready cash flow – which can be used, among other things, to pay the dividends. All of this has investment firm Raymond James looking to the roster oil and gas midstream companies for dividend stocks with growth potential. "We anticipate the [midstream] group will add around ~1 turn to its average EV/EBITDA multiple this year. This equates to a ~20-25% move in equity value," Raymond James analyst Justin Jenkins noted. Jenkins outlined a series of points leading to a midstream recovery in 2021, which include the shift from ‘lockdown’ to ‘reopen’ policies; a general boost on the way for commodities, as the economy picks up; a political point, that some of DC’s more traditional centrists are unlikely to vote in favor of anti-oil, Green New Deal policies; and finally, with stock values relatively low, the dividend yields are high. A look into the TipRanks database reveals two midstream companies that have come to Raymond James’ attention – for all of the points noted above. These are stocks with a specific set of clear attributes: a dividend yield of 7% or higher and Buy ratings. MPLX LP (MPLX) MPLX, which spun off of Marathon Petroleum eight years ago as a separate midstream entity, acquires, owns, and operates a series of midstream assets, including pipelines, terminals, refineries, and river shipping. MPLX’s main areas of operations are in the northern Rocky Mountains, and in the Midwest and stretching south to the Gulf of Mexico coast. Revenue reports through the ‘corona year’ of 2020 show the value potential of oil and gas midstreaming. The company reported $2.18 billion at the top line in Q1, $1.99 billion in Q2, and $2.16 billion in Q3; earnings turned negative in Q1, but were positive in both subsequent quarters. The Q3 report also showed $1.2 billion in net cash generated, more than enough to cover the company’s dividend distribution. MPLX pays out 68.75 cents per common share quarterly, or $2.75 annualized, which gives the dividend a high yield of 11.9%. The company has a diversified set of midstream operations, and strong cash generation, factors leading Raymond James' Justin Jenkins to upgrade his stance on MPLX from Neutral to Outperform (i.e. Buy). His price target, at $28, implies a 22% one-year upside for the shares. (To watch Jenkins’ track record, click here) Backing his stance, Jenkins writes, “Given the number of 'boxes' that the story for MPLX can check, it's no surprise that it's been a debate stock. With exposure to inflecting G&P trends, an expected refining/refined product volume recovery, the story hits many operational boxes - while also straddling several financial debates… We also think solid 2020 financial results should give longer-term confidence…” Turning now to the rest of the Street, it appears that other analysts are generally on the same page. With 6 Buys and 2 Holds assigned in the last three months, the consensus rating comes in as a Strong Buy. In addition, the $26.71 average price target puts the upside at ~17%. (See MPLX stock analysis on TipRanks) DCP Midstream Partners (DCP) Based in Denver, Colorado, the next stock is one of the country’s largest natural gas midstream operators. DCP controls a network of gas pipelines, hubs, storage facilities, and plants stretching between the Rocky Mountain, Midcontinent, and Permian Basin production areas and the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana. The company also operates in the Antrim gas region of Michigan. In the most recent reported quarter – 3Q20 – DCP gathered and processed 4.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day, along with 375 thousand barrels of natural gas liquids. The company also reported $268 million in net cash generated, of which $130 million was free cash flow. The company reduced its debt load by $156 million in the quarter, and showed a 17% reduction in operating costs year-over-year. All of this allowed DCP to maintain its dividend at 39 cents per share. Early in the corona crisis, the company had to cut back that payment – but only once. The recently declared 4Q20 dividend is the fourth in a row at 39 cents per common share. The annualized rate of $1.56 gives a respectable yield of 7.8%. This is another stock that gets an upgrade from Raymond James. Analyst James Weston bumps this stock up from Neutral to Outperform (i.e. Buy), while setting a $24 target price to imply 20% growth on the one-year time horizon. “[We] expect DCP to post yet another solid quarter on sequential improvements in NGL prices, NGL market volatility, and positive upstream trends… we are not capitalizing current propane prices and anticipate a solid, but more normalized pricing regime over the next 12-18 months. In our view, this will create a beneficial operating environment for DCP cash flows that is not currently reflected in Street estimates,” Weston noted. All in all, the Moderate Buy analyst consensus rating on DCP is based on 7 recent reviews, breaking down 4 to 3 Buy versus Hold. Shares are priced at $19.58 and the average target of $23 suggests an upside of ~15% from that level. (See DCP stock analysis on TipRanks) To find good ideas for dividend stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

  • Johnson & Johnson expects COVID-19 vaccine data next week

    Johnson & Johnson on Tuesday said it expected to report eagerly-awaited data on its COVID-19 vaccine early next week, and that it would be able to meet the delivery target for doses to countries with which it had signed supply agreements. Public health officials are increasingly counting on single-dose options like the one being tested by J&J to simplify and boost inoculations given the complications and slower-than-hoped rollout of authorized vaccines from Pfizer Inc and Moderna Inc, which require second shots weeks after the first. The company forecast 2021 profit well above Wall Street estimates, and its shares rose 3.4% to $171.55.

  • Should you use a Monte Carlo simulation to determine if your retirement savings will last?

    In the old days, starting in 1994 with Bill Bengen’s seminal study, financial advisers estimated how long your portfolio might last using historical returns and a safe withdrawal rate. For those unfamiliar, Bengen’s research left us with the 4% rule, which is considered (rightly or wrongly) the holy grail of retirement planning in some circles. Then, starting in 2005, investment firms and advisers were given the green light to use something called Monte Carlo to predict your portfolio’s probability of success — success being the probability that your nest egg would adequately fund your desired standard of living throughout your retirement.

  • Raytheon To Boost Dividend, Buy Back Shares As Earnings Beat

    Raytheon beat Q4 estimates and predicted increases in shareholder returns but gave mixed 2021 guidance.

  • What Leon Black Got for Paying Jeffrey Epstein $158 Million

    (Bloomberg) -- Leon Black viewed Jeffrey Epstein as a “confirmed bachelor with eclectic tastes, who often employed attractive women.”The private equity titan was willing to overlook that Epstein had served 13 months in a Florida jail after soliciting an underage prostitute. That was partly because Epstein claimed the girl had lied about her age, while Black, co-founder of Apollo Global Management Inc., believed in second chances, particularly for his well-connected friend.Thus continued a relationship between the men that was laid out in a report released Monday by law firm Dechert, commissioned by Apollo’s board after news stories about their financial ties. The investigation found that Black paid Epstein $158 million between 2012 and 2017 -- after the sex offender pleaded guilty to felony charges in 2008 -- for advisory services that helped expand the wealth of one of America’s richest men.The report made clear that Apollo never retained Epstein for any services and that he never invested in any Apollo-managed funds. Dechert found no evidence that Black, 69, was involved in any way of Epstein’s criminal activities, and the billionaire maintains he had no knowledge of Epstein’s abuse of underage girls. Still, the findings showed how the disgraced adviser’s knowledge of the tax system and skill managing the affairs of the ultra-rich helped Black save at least $1 billion, and potentially more than $2 billion.At the same time Apollo revealed details of the report, the company said Black would step down as chief executive officer. He’ll remain chairman.Tax SavingsThe Dechert report details a friendship going back to the 1990s, with Black impressed by Epstein’s ties to prominent figures in business, politics and science, including researchers at Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Black was a frequent visitor to Epstein’s Manhattan mansion, confided personal matters to him and visited his homes around the globe.Dechert also laid out the ways Epstein was useful to Black, who’s worth almost $10 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.The business arrangement started in 2012, according to the law firm, which reviewed over 60,000 documents.Black a few years earlier had set up a Grantor Retained Annuity Trust, or GRAT. These vehicles, which are popular with extremely wealthy Americans, are structured so that appreciation in assets placed in a GRAT can go to heirs without paying U.S. estate and gift taxes. But Black’s had a flaw and there was a risk of a tax assessment of $500 million, which could rise to $1 billion or more if it wasn’t resolved.Epstein offered what the report described as a “unique solution.” It was the first project Epstein worked on for Black and possibly the most valuable.In 2015, Epstein helped with another transaction designed to save Black’s children on taxes, known as a step-up basis transaction. The complicated arrangement, which took nine months to execute, involved loans between Black and trusts, and avoiding capital gains taxes for his beneficiaries. Epstein claimed the move saved $600 million.Yachts, PlaneEpstein, a Brooklyn native, was an enigma to many inside and outside of finance. He attended Cooper Union and New York University’s Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences but left both without a degree. He briefly had a job at Bear Stearns Cos. and before his first arrest worked extensively for lingerie mogul Les Wexner. The L Brands founder severed ties with Epstein after his first conviction and later accused him of misappropriating “vast sums of money from me and my family.” But Epstein had helped Wexner with his finances and purchases such as real estate.He did many of those same things for Black.Epstein helped respond to audits, and advised on how to manage Black’s art, yacht and airplane, according to the Dechert report.“Epstein would get into the weeds on obscure issues about which otherwise highly competent Family Office employees were not knowledgeable,” the report said.One of Epstein’s contributions, according to the report, was convincing Black to focus on these issues, as well as meeting with his family and explaining how the estate was organized. He would prepare detailed “fire drill” plans, testing how Black’s estate would be taxed under different scenarios.‘Caustic Force’Black’s full-time staff didn’t always appreciate Epstein’s contributions. He was “generally a disruptive and caustic force within the family office,” the report said, one who “had a habit of overdramatizing even minor perceived errors.”Epstein would take credit for others’ ideas, while compiling long lists of his own suggestions. Many of his creative estate-planning schemes didn’t hold up under scrutiny. According to witnesses, including Black, “part of the challenge of working with Epstein was separating the good ideas from the bad ones.”“What’s bizarre to me is having Epstein in any way in charge of your estate planning,” said University of Richmond law professor Allison Tait. “He didn’t just leave this to his family office staff, who were likely highly competent.”But the payments racked up. Black paid Epstein $50 million in 2013, $70 million in 2014 and $30 million the following year. He made a $10 million donation to Gratitude America in October 2015, which was a charitable organization affiliated with Epstein.That sort of compensation is unusual. Estate planning attorneys and tax advisers are typically paid by the hour or by the transaction. IRS regulations forbid tax practitioners from charging contingent fees “in connection with any matter before the Internal Revenue Service.”But Epstein, with his atypical role and background, could avoid those rules, said Jay Soled, a Rutgers University professor who is also a practicing estate tax attorney. “This is a very unusual arrangement because he doesn’t really have training.”Beginning in 2016, “Black and Epstein’s professional and personal relationship deteriorated,” according to the report. One dispute was over a payment tied to the step-up transaction, with Black refusing to pay Epstein tens of millions of dollars that Epstein believed he had earned.Epstein pushed back on the issue through emails that invoked his friendship with the billionaire and referenced personal matters shared in confidence. Black held firm and at an April 2018 meeting it was determined that while Epstein had played a key role in the deal, the idea came from one of Black’s external lawyers.Black also thought that the amounts he was paying Epstein would be fully deductible on his tax returns -- because this is what Epstein told him -- and this wasn’t the case.Black’s last payment to Epstein was made in April 2017, and in 2018, Epstein repaid a portion of two loans that were outstanding to Black but never repaid the balance, according to the report. Black and Epstein stopped communicating in 2018, the year before Epstein was arrested on charges of sex trafficking minors and later died in jail. His death was ruled a suicide.(Updates with external comment in 19th paragraph.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Apple Expected To Join The $100 Billion Revenue Club When Earnings Are Released

    Did someone say $100 billion? And then some? Wall Street analysts did. A consensus sees Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) as joining that rarefied corporate crowd that’s broken the $100 billion in quarterly revenues mark when it opens the books Wednesday on its fiscal Q1. That’s a record for AAPL, of course, and may have been assisted by holiday sales of its new iPhone 12. But it’s one in a series of fresh peaks AAPL has scored in a year—one the company acknowledged was rocked by adversity in many corners. Chief Financial Officer Luca Maestri said the strong results in last quarter’s report were driven by “the unmatched loyalty of our customers.” That may or not be true, but when AAPL reports earnings, investors also will be listening to how well AAPL is playing the market share game. The work-from-home trend, fueled by the pandemic, looks like it might have been a game-changer for AAPL, according to Morningstar analysts who believe it powered sales of iPads, desktops, and laptops. All that could be overshadowed in fiscal Q1 by iPhone 12 holiday sales, which it’s probably safe to say will get a fair share of attention Wednesday afternoon following the closing bell. AAPL has always been an attention-getter when earnings season rolls around, and now, with it sporting a $2.34 trillion market cap and reaching new stock price highs, it looks like it’s sure to take a spot under the limelight even when it’s up against a host of other high-profile tech stocks earnings results this week. Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) report the same afternoon. The Numbers Wall Street analysts expect AAPL revenue to jump 12% year-over-year to about $103 billion, according to FactSet. But some firms, such as Loup Ventures, are looking for much stronger numbers: up 19% to $109.5 billion. From an earnings perspective, the Street has reached a consensus of $1.41 a share. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is also forecasting on the high side of consensus, eyeing revenues of $108.2 billion and earnings per share of $1.50. “Our recent conversations suggest investors expect Apple to release solid, but not great, December quarter results,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a recent report. “We disagree and believe that Apple is likely to report all-time record quarterly revenue and earnings. “In our view, the iPhone 12 has been Apple’s most successful product launch in the last five years,” they said. More on that later. Any way you look at it, the numbers look robust. The Innovation Machine AAPL stopped giving guidance last year—kind of like many other companies uncertain of the ramifications of COVID-19 on their sales. In March, no one knew what the ricochet effects of the pandemic might be or how long it might last. We still don’t know all of that, but we have found that the city- and state-mandated quarantines and the overall fear of being in public helped fast-forward many trends that were already picking up steam. The digital transformation sped up, and it looks like AAPL might have been well-positioned for it. While the iPhone 12 might get most of the attention Wednesday, think back to last quarter when CEO Tim Cook noted all-time records for Mac and Services. Though he didn’t offer guidance for this past quarter per se, he did suggest double-digit gains on all product categories except the iPhone 12, which he thought would reach single-digit gains. FIGURE 1: APPLE LEAVES INDEX IN THE DUST. Over the last year, shares of Apple (AAPL—candlestick) have easily outpaced the Nasdaq-100 Index (NDX—purple line). Apple shares got off to a quick start in 2021, with investors apparently enthusiastic about tomorrow’s Q1 earnings prospects. Data source: Nasdaq. Chart source: The thinkorswim® platform from TD Ameritrade. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Mighty iPhone 5G Launch Despite all the happy talk about fiscal Q4 revenues, iPhone’s weaker-than-expected sales offset the glee and pulled shares down nearly 6% in the first couple of days after the October earnings release. They have since recovered. AAPL reported iPhone sales of $26.4 billion in fiscal Q4, below the $27.73 billion expected by the Street. Much of that shortfall was attributed to AAPL’s decision to push the iPhone 12 launch into this most recent quarter, a move many believe may have led to consumers waiting for the upgrade before they bought. Back then, some analysts said a move to 5G could end up being a tailwind for the iPhone 12 with sales promotions and subscription services bundles. That, combined with the important holiday shopping season about to begin, could have led to a fast start for the new phone. We’ll see now if they were right. Analysts are mostly bullish on their iPhone sales expectations, with some saying the delay might have pushed around $4 billion in iPhone sales to the December quarter from the fiscal Q3. The Street’s consensus last stood at $59.58 billion, up better than 6% on a year-over-year basis. But Loup Ventures thinks that’s conservative. It’s looking for sales to vault 16% on a year-over-year basis to $64.9 billion, jumping to 59% of total sales compared with the iPhone’s typical 50% of sales standing. It’s unclear if that will actually be the case, but if it is it would reverse a trend in recent years toward iPhones being less of AAPL’s total revenue. The company has been emphasizing growth in services. Remember, we’re just two years out from January 2019 when Cook sent a letter to AAPL investors warning of a fiscal Q1 earnings shortfall due in part to weak iPhone sales in China. How things have changed. AAPL Earnings And Options Activity AAPL is expected to report an adjusted EPS of $1.41, up from $1.25 in the prior-year quarter, according to third-party consensus analyst estimates. Revenue is projected at $103.01 billion, up 16.4% from a year ago. The options market has priced in an expected share price move of 6.2% in either direction around the earnings release, according to the Market Maker Move™ indicator on the thinkorswim® platform. Looking at the Jan. 29 options expiration, puts have been active at the 125 and 135 strikes. But it’s been dwarfed by activity to the upside, heavy call volume at the 145 and 150 strikes. The implied volatility sits at the 34th percentile as of Tuesday morning. Note: Call options represent the right, but not the obligation, to buy the underlying security at a predetermined price over a set period of time. Put options represent the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying security at a predetermined price over a set period of time. Home Work And Its Tools The work- and study-from-home phenomenon helped drive sales of Macs and iPads last year, and analysts widely expect that trend continued into the fiscal Q1. A number of bells and whistles were added to new iPads and iPad Airs, and new computers with AAPL’s custom M1 chip replacing the Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) chip also hit the market. AAPL also is reportedly working on a new iPad Pro expected to be released in mid-March. There’s also talk on Wall Street that AAPL might have patented a new version of the Magic Keyboard for the iPad Pro. Given Cook’s comments about the “most prolific product introduction period,” analysts widely expect to hear about other new products coming on line. An update of the MacBook Air is one of those possible developments. AAPL is working on a thinner and lighter version of the MacBook Air, Bloomberg reported late last week, citing “people with knowledge of the matter. Analysts said they want to know if the planned release in the second half of this year is on track. Analysts at Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. expect AAPL to shed light on several new products and services, including how sales are going for its $549 AirPods Max over-the-ear headphones and the subscription Apple Fitness+ offering, plus ways to bundle services together for a discount. “In our view, Apple’s portfolio was positioned better-than-ever heading into the recent holiday season, while product and service updates position Planet Apple well in 2021,” the team wrote. And So Much More Among the myriad reasons AAPL’s earnings are such a magnet goes beyond products Other factors underscoring the company’s progress range from privacy concerns to app developer fees to government interventions and the overall economy. AAPL has done much to address many of these issues, but each quarter tends to introduce a fresh crop. In November, for example, AAPL said it would cut in half the commissions it charges smaller developers who sell software through the App Store and generate under $1 million in sales. AAPL’s original 30% take has long fueled complaints from developers, users and governments over its dominance in the digital world. The price cut to 15% appeased some but not all stakeholders and analysts hope the company will address how the cuts are panning out in the beginning weeks. Another question heading into earnings is AAPL’s cash position. The total cash trove stood at roughly $192 billion at the end of the company’s fiscal Q4, with about $112 billion in debt and a little more than $79 billion in cash. AAPL returned nearly $22 billion to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends. Investors can expect to continue to see more of that ahead, according to Loup Ventures, which estimates an additional $73 billion will be returned in coming years. TD Ameritrade® commentary for educational purposes only. Member SIPC. Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Photo by Trac Vu on Unsplash See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from BenzingaBoeing Earnings Ahead: Eyeing Workforce Cuts, Aerospace Spending, And The Newly "Ungrounded" 737 MAXEarnings Continue With Johnson & Johnson, 3M Early, Followed By Microsoft Later© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  • 30-year Wall Street veteran says buyer beware, we may be in a stock market bubble

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  • How To Generate $100,000 Of Retirement Income, Without Selling Your Principal

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  • NYC Apartment Landlords Getting Burned in Gentrification Crash

    (Bloomberg) -- New York’s apartment investors are suddenly waist-deep in distress.By December, they were behind on $395 million of debt backed by mortgage bonds, almost 150 times the level a year earlier, according to Trepp data on commercial mortgage-backed securities. Tenants in rent-stabilized units owe at least $1 billion in rent and wealthier ones are fleeing the city, leaving behind vacancies and pushing newly-built luxury towers into foreclosure.For years, as crime dwindled and rent climbed in New York, investors gobbled up apartment buildings. But with the city’s economy and culture crushed by Covid-19, mounting job losses have derailed the gentrification boom and put financial pressure on landlords.“The people who specialize in mortgage workouts are the busiest people in New York real estate,” said Barry Hersh, a clinical associate professor of real estate at New York University.The developers who are in the most trouble pushed hard into Harlem and the Brooklyn hipster hubs of Crown Heights, Flatbush and Bushwick, squeezing out working-class residents by building new expensive units. Now, they’re grappling with eviction bans and new tenant protections as rent falls across New York.Colony 1209, a steel-gray apartment building, opened six years ago in the heart of Bushwick, an industrial vision of urban chic, with a billiards room and 24-hour doorman. The website pitched one bedrooms for $2,500 to “like-minded settlers” in the mostly Black and Hispanic neighborhood, which it called Brooklyn’s “new frontier.”Now Colony, renamed Dekalb 1209, faces foreclosure after owner Spruce Capital Partners defaulted on a $46 million mortgage. The five-year interest-only loan matured in October and was not extended, triggering the default, according to monthly filings by the loan’s servicer, Wells Fargo & Co.The lender is filing to repossess the building -- as soon as New York’s foreclosure moratorium expires -- while simultaneously discussing workout alternatives with the borrower. Spruce could not be reached for comment.Right before Covid hit, investors were willing to pay top-dollar for luxury buildings like Colony. They wanted alternatives to rent-regulated buildings, which saw values crimped by a 2019 law that banned tactics landlords depended on to convert rent-stabilized units to market-rate.“That was the bright spot until the pandemic happened,” said Victor Sozio, executive vice president at Ariel Property Advisors, a commercial brokerage firm in New York City.Plans ‘Stymied’Emerald Equities, a fast-growing condo conversion specialist, filed for bankruptcy in December on buildings in Harlem. In its filing, the company said its “well-laid plans were stymied” by the tenant-friendly law. Residents organized a rent strike, then collections plunged even more after the pandemic, driving Emerald to hand ownership to LoanCore Capital, which loaned $203 million for the project.Doug Kellner, an attorney for Emerald tenants, blames the current market troubles on New York’s eviction ban because it came without any accompanying financial support.“Everybody realizes that rent is the green blood that keeps a building operational,” Kellner said.Across the boroughs, rents are on a downward spiral, as landlords try to fill empty apartments with ever-sweeter tenant concessions -- only to see the number of vacant listings surge further.In Manhattan, available units nearly tripled in December from a year earlier, and the median rent plunged 17% to $2,800, according to data from Miller Samuel Inc. and Douglas Elliman Real Estate. Rents are down 11% in Brooklyn and 18% in Northwest Queens, where starry-eyed developers built glassy apartment fortresses along the waterfront for young midtown professionals.In some ways, investors may be better insulated than after the 2008 financial crisis. Lenders generally required bigger down payments and underwrote loans based on current rents rather than expectations for the future, said Shimon Shkury, Ariel’s president. If the vaccine works and college students and office workers start to return, so will the market, Shkury said.“I don’t think there will be as much distress as you think,” he said.Deregulating RentsLenders have already put $1.4 billion of commercial-backed multifamily debt on watchlists because of issues such as rising vacancies or impending maturities. That’s 19% of all outstanding debt, compared with 22% at the nadir of the financial crisis.The trouble will filter from highly-leveraged investors who expanded quickly to lenders with the most aggressive underwriting, says NYU’s Hersh.“There will be banks that go under,” he said.At the same time, the market for multifamily buildings has gone soft. The total dollar volume of New York City multifamily sales was $4.5 billion in 2020, a 61% plunge from 2018, before the pandemic or the new rent laws, according to a report by Ariel.Still, firms such Limekiln Real Estate Investment Management, see opportunities. The company made $224 million in New York multifamily loans in the second half of 2020, up from $9.3 million before the pandemic. It’s easier to extract better terms in a “lender’s market,” said Scott Waynebern, Limekiln’s president.“It’s tricky to find where the bottom is,” he said.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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