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  • U.K.’s Longest-Maturity Bond Offer Has Buyers Waiting to Pounce

    (Bloomberg) -- U.K. bond investors eager for the government to sell more of its longest-dated debt appear to have gotten their way.A bond auction on Tuesday will include a 1 billion-pound ($1.37 billion) offering of gilts maturing in 2071 with more scheduled for sale in June. Minutes of a conference call with the Debt Management Office last month revealed investors asked for more of the bonds because there isn’t enough to go around. It also cited dealers reporting strong demand for the longest-dated gilts.The success of Britain’s vaccination roll-out and plans to gradually reopen the economy have pressured gilts, lifting 50-year yields to their highest since 2019 last month. That’s now unleashing appetite among money managers to pile back in looking for income-bearing assets to match liabilities .The same dealers have also been reluctant to sell their inventory of long-maturity debt this year back to the Bank of England as part of its quantitative easing program in another sign of anticipated demand. This suggests they don’t want to be caught short of any bonds should investors want to buy from them.Also pushing the strong demand theme, oversubscription rates for bonds maturing in 50 years have been the highest on record since the end of last year.“With the U.K. market having most aggressively priced the re-opening story in Europe, even a mild re-assessment of the re-opening and vaccination story, should see gilts recapture some lost ground,” said Megan Muhic, a strategist at RBC Europe Limited.Next WeekEuro area bond issuance from Germany, Italy and the Netherlands is expected to total 12 billion euros next week according to Commerzbank AG; Danske Bank A/S flags that Ireland could sell a new 20-year bond through banks; Italy, Finland and Portugal pay redemptions of about 29 billion euros and coupons of over 2 billion eurosIn the U.K., the Debt Management Office will sell 1 billion pounds of its longest conventional gilt which matures in 2071 and 600 million pounds of a 30-year inflation-linked bond; the Bank of England will buy back 4.4 billion pounds of debt in three operationsData for the coming week in the euro area and Germany is thin and mostly backward-looking, with the exception of the ZEW survey numbers for April on TuesdayU.K. data is also slim with February GDP due on TuesdayECB policy maker speeches are scheduled from Isabel Schnabel, Fabio Panetta and Luis de Guindos all on Wednesday before a self-imposed quiet period kicks in ahead of the following week’s monetary policy decisionBOE policy maker Silvana Tenreyro speaks on Monday followed by Jonathan Haskel on Wednesday and Jonathan Cunliffe on FridayDBRS Ltd. reviews France on FridayFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Exclusive: China's antitrust regulator bulking up as crackdown on behemoths widens

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  • Exxon Mobil Will Keep Paying Its Dividend, And May Be Worth 30% More

    Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) is not going to lower its dividend no matter what it costs the company. That point came out loud and clear from the company’s latest earnings conference call. This means that XOM stock will continue to have a “strong” dividend yield of about 6.15%. It’s worth at least 32% more, or $74.63 per share, based on its historical dividend yield. Source: Harry Green / Shutterstock.com For the past two years (8 quarters) Exxon has paid 87 cents per share in quarterly dividends. That works out to $3.48 per share each year. Exxon clearly intends to maintain that dividend. Therefore, at today’s price (April 9) of $55.87, the dividend yield is very healthy at 6.2%. Target Price Based on Historicals Moreover, based on the company’s historical dividend yield, this is much higher than its average. For example, Morningstar reports that over the past 5 years, its trailing 5-year dividend yield has been 4.96% (almost 5%).InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips We can use this to estimate the normalized target value for XOM stock. For example, if we divide the dividend per share of $3.48 by the average yield of 4.96%, the result is a target price of $70.16 per share. This represents a potential gain of $14.29 or about 26% more based on today’s price of $55.87. 7 Infrastructure Stocks Excited For The $2 Trillion Biden Plan We can do the same thing with the company’s earnings-per-share (EPS). Applying Morningstar’s 5-year avg. price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.62 times (over the last 5 years) to Exxon’s EPS for this year ($2.87) produces a target price of $73.53. That is over 30% above today’s price. Similarly using the Morningstar forward P/E average of 21.75 times Exxon’s $3.88 EPS for 2022 produces a target price of $84.39. Now we have three different price targets based on dividend yield and price-to-earnings. To round things out we can also derive a price based on its historical price-to-sales. Morningstar says this is 1.25 times over the last five years. Analysts predict sales of $245.5 billion for 2021, so the price target works out to $306.875 billion. This is 29.7% above Exxon’s existing market cap of $236.5 billion. In other words, XOM stock is worth nearly 30% more or $72.46 per share. That means that, on average, XOM stock is worth about 34% higher, or $75.14 per share. These ratios are based on earnings and sales estimates provided by Seeking Alpha on their Earnings tab for Exxon Mobil stock. The estimates can vary depending on which aggregation service is used. But this gives you an idea that XOM stock is undervalued based on its historical metrics. One thing to note is that although the $3.48 dividend exceeds the forecast earnings of $2.87 this year (2021). But next year analysts predict EPS of $3.88 per share, which will cover the dividend, assuming oil and gas prices stay high. Moreover, management said on the fourth-quarter 2020 conference call that cash flow from operations should cover the dividend payments this year. This coincides with their intention to maintain a “strong” dividend, mentioned 10 times on the conference call. What To Do With XOM Stock Most analysts have higher price targets for Exxon stock, but not by much. For example, TipRanks.com says that 18 analysts have an average price target of just $60.68. Similarly, Yahoo! Finance says that 25 analysts believe on average XOM stock is worth $61.18. However, Marketbeat.com reports that 24 analysts have a lower target of $52.73, whereas Seeking Alpha says that 27 analysts have an average target of $61.36. Click to EnlargeSource: Mark R. Hake, CFA You can see in the table on the right that the median analyst price target is $60.63, or 7.1% above today’s price. So, on the one hand, this is much lower than my price target using historical metrics. But on the other hand, keep in mind that my price target could take several years to achieve, whereas most analysts are just looking out one year. For example, if my 34% higher price target takes two years, the average annual return will be just 16% each year on a compounded basis. Moreover, the dividend yield is 6.15%. Therefore the total return, even if the analysts’ target price pans out will be 13.25% (i.e., 7.1% price gain plus 6.15% dividend yield). My target price produces an expected return of 21.95% (i.e., 14.8% gain plus 6.15% yield). Any way that you look at it, XOM stock looks like a good bargain here, assuming oil stays high and the stock returns to its normal historical value metrics. On the date of publication, Mark R. Hake did not hold a long or short position in any of the securities in this article. Mark Hake writes about personal finance on mrhake.medium.com and runs the Total Yield Value Guide which you can review here. More From InvestorPlace Why Everyone Is Investing in 5G All WRONG It doesn’t matter if you have $500 in savings or $5 million. Do this now. Top Stock Picker Reveals His Next Potential 500% Winner Stock Prodigy Who Found NIO at $2… Says Buy THIS Now The post Exxon Mobil Will Keep Paying Its Dividend, And May Be Worth 30% More appeared first on InvestorPlace.

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  • China Fines Alibaba Record $2.8 Billion After Monopoly Probe

    (Bloomberg) -- China slapped a record $2.8 billion fine on Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. after an anti-monopoly probe found it abused its market dominance, as Beijing clamps down on its internet giants.The 18.2 billion yuan penalty is triple the previous high of almost $1 billion that U.S. chipmaker Qualcomm Inc. had to pay in 2015, and was based on 4% of Alibaba’s 2019 domestic revenue, according to China’s antitrust watchdog. The company will also have to initiate “comprehensive rectifications,” from protecting merchants and customers to strengthening internal controls, the agency said in a statement on Saturday.The fine -- about 12% of Alibaba’s fiscal 2020 net income -- helps remove some of the uncertainty that’s hung over China’s second-largest corporation. But Beijing remains intent on reining in its internet and fintech giants and is said to be scrutinizing other parts of billionaire founder Jack Ma’s empire, including Ant Group Co.’s consumer-lending businesses and Alibaba’s extensive media holdings.Alibaba used its platform rules and technical methods like data and algorithms “to maintain and strengthen its own market power and obtain improper competitive advantage,” the State Administration for Market Regulation concluded in its investigation. The company will likely have to change a raft of practices, like merchant exclusivity, which critics say helped it become China’s largest e-commerce operation.“The high fine puts the regulator in the media spotlight and sends a strong signal to the tech sector that such types of exclusionary conduct will no longer be tolerated,” said Angela Zhang, author of “Chinese Antitrust Exceptionalism” and director of Centre for Chinese Law at the University of Hong Kong. “It’s a stone that kills two birds.”Alibaba’s practice of imposing a “pick one from two” choice on merchants “shuts out and restricts competition“ in the domestic online retail market, according to the statement.The government action sends a clear warning to the tech sector as the government scrutinizes the influence that companies like Alibaba and social media giant Tencent Holdings Ltd. wield over spheres from consumer data to mergers and acquisitions.The investigation into Alibaba was one of the opening salvos in a campaign seemingly designed to curb the power of China’s internet leaders and their billionaire founders. The company has come under mounting pressure from authorities since Ma spoke out against China’s regulatory approach to the finance sector in October. Those comments set in motion an unprecedented regulatory offensive, including scuttling Ant Group Co.’s $35 billion initial public offering.Alibaba said it will hold a conference call Monday morning Hong Kong time to address lingering questions around the antitrust watchdog’s decree.“China’s record fine on Alibaba may lift the regulatory overhang that has weighed on the company since the start of an anti-monopoly probe in late December,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Vey-Sern Ling and Tiffany Tam said, describing the fine as a small price to pay to do away with that uncertainty.”Further ActionStill, it remains unclear whether the watchdog or other agencies might demand further action. Regulators are said for instance to be concerned about Alibaba’s ability to sway public discourse and want the company to sell some of its media assets, including the South China Morning Post, Hong Kong’s leading English-language newspaper.The Hangzhou-based firm will be required to implement “comprehensive rectifications,” including strengthening internal controls, upholding fair competition, and protecting businesses on its platform and consumers’ rights, the regulator said. It will need to submit reports on self-regulation to the authority for three consecutive years.“Alibaba accepts the penalty with sincerity and will ensure its compliance with determination. 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  • Arm Battle With China CEO Escalates, Complicating SoftBank Sale

    (Bloomberg) -- The battle for control of Arm Ltd.’s China business is escalating with new lawsuits aimed at keeping the unit’s controversial chief executive in power, further complicating SoftBank Group Corp.’s efforts to sell the business to Nvidia Corp.The dispute erupted almost a year ago in June after the board voted to oust Arm China Chief Executive Officer Allen Wu for conflicts of interest, but he refused to leave. Now the Chinese unit, which remains under Wu’s control, has filed lawsuits against three senior executives the board designated to replace him, according to people familiar with the matter. The previously unreported suits could take years to resolve, suggesting Wu may remain entrenched.Wu fired the three men -- including co-CEO Phil Tang -- but they were subsequently reinstated by the board. In the new lawsuits, Arm China is suing the trio, demanding they return company property, according to the people.Arm China declined to comment on any ongoing legal cases or possible settlement talks. It did say the three executives had caused “material damages” to the company and they had been terminated for legitimate reasons.Tang didn’t return requests for comment. Arm Ltd. declined to elaborate, saying it won’t comment on pending legal matters.The complex tussle has thrown into question the future of Arm, whose semiconductor technology is the world’s most widely used for smartphones and is increasingly deployed in computers. SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son agreed to sell the British chip designer to Nvidia for $40 billion last year, but the path for completing that transaction is growing increasingly difficult.The China dispute also raises questions about Beijing’s willingness to protect foreign investment in the world’s second-largest economy. Arm Ltd. sold a majority stake in the China unit to a consortium of investors, including Beijing-backed institutions. That has complicated the British firm’s efforts to manage Arm China and Wu, who has support from local authorities in Shenzhen.Both sides appear to be at a stalemate. Wu, a Chinese-born U.S. citizen, pulled back from signing settlement agreements worth tens of millions of dollars if he would leave the company, the people said, asking not to be identified talking about legal matters. At the same time, two minority shareholders in Arm China linked to Wu have filed lawsuits to overturn his June 4 dismissal, they said.SoftBank opened negotiations with him last year and had hoped to reach some sort of resolution, they said. Instead the court battles are deepening and the Japanese company has soured over the increasingly complicated dispute, the people said. SoftBank is now resigned to letting the legal proceedings take their course and there are no current negotiations with Wu, according to one of the people.“We are going through a leadership change in China; it’s taking time to resolve,” said Arm Ltd.’s Chief Executive Officer Simon Segars in an interview with Bloomberg Television recently. “It’s hard. But we are confident that’s going to get resolved.”SoftBank and Nvidia declined to comment on the dispute in China.Arm China said in a statement that Wu’s position “is compliant with legal registration and confirmed by China law and regulations.”Read more: Arm Takes Aim at Intel Chips in Biggest Tech Overhaul in DecadeThe standoff accords a relatively unknown executive outsized influence over one of the industry’s most important pieces of technology, in the world’s biggest internet and semiconductor market. Chinese companies need unfettered access to Arm’s products to push forward with the country’s attempts to make itself more independent in chip technology, an area where it’s largely reliant on imports. Beyond resolving the stalemate, Nvidia and SoftBank also need Beijing’s signoff to seal their deal, and it’s unclear whether Wu’s presence would complicate that.Wu’s hold on Arm China is partially due to local laws which make it difficult to change control of a company unless you’re physically in control of the company stamp and registration documents. He’s refused to give them up and has used company funds to pay for legal fees incurred in his attempt to fight off his dismissal, the people said.Arm China said payment of legal fees “is made in compliance with company policies as well as China laws and regulations.”His ultimate goals appear to be a large cash payoff and immunity from subsequent legal action, according to people who’ve spoken with him. Inside Arm China, which is responsible for selling licenses to its chip designs and fundamental technology in the country, Wu has told local staff he’s not going anywhere. He recently gave employees Chinese New Year cash presents in a red envelope with his surname on it.Arm China said the money came from Wu personally to show his appreciation to colleagues, a tradition at Chinese New Year in the country.Hearings in the case against the three executives are expected to take place in late May, one of the people said. Separately, two minority shareholders in Arm China have sued the Chinese entity in Shenzhen to nullify the board’s decision to oust Wu. These two cases are now being merged and hearings are slated for late April, the people said.Son told investors as recently as February that he expects to close the Arm sale and “I don’t have any Plan B.”Arm, for its part is trying to make sure that its technology remains pervasive in China despite U.S. sanctions intended to curb the supply of American technology to major companies like Huawei Technologies Co. While Arm is a U.K.-based company part of its operations are in the U.S. making its products subject to controls.The Chinese government has not stated its position on the Arm China leadership struggle, but the unit has several government-backed shareholders including sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp. and the Silk Road Fund.In his interview with Bloomberg Television, Arm Ltd. CEO Segars said that the ten-month standoff hasn’t hurt Arm’s business in China. Lack of travel for face-to-face meetings during the pandemic has prolonged the process of changing leadership in China, he said.“When we announced the deal in September, we said it would take about 18 months,” he said. “We remain confident in that timeline.”For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.