Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman joins The First Trade to discuss the latest discussions happening in Washington, D.C. around another round of stimulus.
ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: The election is a mere 20 days away, and it appears we are no closer to a stimulus deal in Congress. Senate Republicans are planning a vote Monday on their own relief package, as Speaker Pelosi blasts the White House for not making more concessions. Our senior columnist, Rick Newman, is here now to break it down. So Rick, found this out just a few moments ago. "Politico" says that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and House Speaker Pelosi are going to speak again today to try and break that impasse. How optimistic are you?
RICK NEWMAN: So what? They're having another phone call. I think both sides are trying to make it look like they really want to do something, when everybody in Washington knows there is almost no chance of a deal before election day. The real interesting twist here, is that now that the Senate Republicans have said they are going to put forward their own bill, it's basically the same so-called skinny bill they they've put forth going to back a few weeks.
So now the White House and the House Democrats actually are very similar on the type of bill they want. So there's an alliance there. And on the other side, they're negotiating with Senate Republicans. We should remind everybody, President Trump is a Republican, not a Democrat. But he can't seem to make an agreement with the senators of his own party about what kind of stimulus bill this ought to be. So we're just not going to get one.
BRIAN SOZZI: Rick, isn't the stone cold truth here, we're not getting a stimulus unless the stock market absolutely plunges?
RICK NEWMAN: Yeah. And the stock market is not going to plunge, because as we, as a prior guest was discussing and many other guests have been discussing, we are going to get a stimulus bill at some point. The sort of worst case scenario is actually a pretty good scenario, at least for the stock market. And that's a blue wave in which Joe Biden wins the White House and Democrats win the Senate, which means we would get a very large stimulus bill, probably going back to $3 trillion or more, which was the original House offer.
But it would not come until probably late January or early February. So we get more stimulus than we would otherwise, but it would come later. So I think the stock market gets that, which is why I don't think the stock market is going to quake any time before the election, even though there is probably not going to be a stimulus bill.
ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: But Rick, how much of this is the Democrats basically digging in their heels and saying, we're not going to give President Trump a quote unquote quote victory here, by green lighting a stimulus package ahead of the election?
RICK NEWMAN: I think a lot of it, Alexis. And all along, since they really hit this impasse starting in July or August, I mean, the real battle has been not to help people who are hurting and find a way to get some aid to workers who are running out of money or unemployed people who need help or businesses that are about to fail. That is not what this has been about for the last couple of months. It has been about who can win political points or same thing, blame the other side effectively going into the election.
I think Nancy Pelosi actually, I think she had a stronger hand a month ago. She had this interview with Wolf Blitzer on CNN yesterday, and Wolf Blitzer asked her just a very honest and simple question, is why wouldn't you rather just do something to help people now instead of doing nothing? And she gave kind of a contorted answer that I don't think made a lot of sense. And she basically accused Wolf Blitzer of siding with Republicans. I don't think too many people think that's how he rolls.
But she was really on the defensive. And I think the reason she was on the defensive, is she really is kind of standing in the way of a deal before election day. I think what she really wants, she knows Biden is ahead, she knows there's a good chance Democrats will win the Senate, she wants Democrats to be in charge of this process after November 3. And we'll, who knows whether they will or not? We'll see.
ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Yeah, I watched that interview. She, Pelosi was not happy with Wolf. Called him an apologist for the Republican Party. I'm with you. I don't think a lot of people would think CNN and Wolf Blitzer and think that. But one of the signature goals of President Trump, certainly pre this pandemic, was to in his words, fix our relationship with other countries when it came to trade, like China and Mexico. And that's exactly what you and I spoke about in this week's "Electionomics" podcast, which drops today, by the way. Tell everybody what they can expect from that.
RICK NEWMAN: Right. We interviewed Chris Rogers, who's a great resource on these topics at Panjiva, which is a unit of S&P Global, and asked him what has Trump actually accomplished. I mean, it's time to say, look, these were his promises in 2016, what has he actually accomplished? Trump has failed on his top line targets, things like reducing the trade deficit with China and other countries. But he's also done some things that he could build on in a second term, or even Joe Biden could build on, if he's the one who wins. So check out that episode of "Electionomics." We'll spell it all out.
ALEXIS CHRISTOFOROUS: Yeah, we dig into all that. You can do that on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Rick, good to see you.
RICK NEWMAN: Bye, guys.