Bullpen Capital founder and managing partner Paul Martino on the rise of sports betting and gambling restrictions in different areas.
Bullpen Capital founder and managing partner Paul Martino on the rise of sports betting and gambling restrictions in different areas.
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell for a second day as rising virus cases around the world led to renewed concern over the continued economic impact, overshadowing a batch of solid corporate results.The S&P 500 extended its slide from an all-time high, with investors showing caution ahead of the brunt of the earnings season. All eyes will be on whether an anticipated rise in profits will bring with it forecasts for stronger growth ahead. International Business Machines Corp. climbed after reporting its largest revenue growth in 11 quarters, while United Airlines Holdings Inc. paced a selloff in travel stocks on a bigger-than-expected loss. Netflix Inc. plunged in postmarket trading as its first-quarter subscriber growth fell short of the average analyst estimate.Other corporate highlights:Johnson & Johnson posted stronger-than-expected sales, while Travelers Cos.’s earnings beat estimates and Philip Morris International Inc. raised its outlookProcter & Gamble Co. is boosting the prices of some consumer products as the household-goods behemoth grapples with higher commodity costsWhile American equities are trading at a valuation that’s about 35% above the average of the past decade, investors are focused on what’s forecast to be the best earnings season in two years. One of their biggest concerns is whether companies are equipped to handle mounting inflation pressures as the economic recovery gains momentum.“Earnings season is ramping up, and there’s this concern about how the multinationals will give their guidance in view of the fact that we haven’t drawn a line under Covid yet,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index. “That is just starting to unnerve investors. Demand for riskier assets has come off.”For David Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth Management, the stock market has been just taking a breather after a big rally, but there are still reasons to be bullish.“The economic recovery has taken hold, the earnings recovery has taken hold, everything we’ve seen from first-quarter earnings so far has been that it’s going to be a blowout quarter,” he said.Elsewhere, the dollar rose for the first time in seven sessions, while the Treasury 10-year yield dropped to the lowest level in more than five weeks.Here are some key events to watch this week:EIA crude oil inventory report on Wednesday.European Central Bank rate decision and President Christine Lagarde briefing on Thursday.U.S. releases new home sales data Friday.These are some of the main moves in markets:StocksThe S&P 500 decreased 0.7% at 4 p.m. New York timeThe Nasdaq 100 dipped 0.7%The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 0.8%The Russell 2000 dropped 2%The Stoxx Europe 600 sank 1.9%The MSCI World index dipped 0.9%CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced 0.2%The euro was little changed at $1.2035The Japanese yen appreciated 0.1% to 108.09 per dollarBondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries fell four basis points to 1.56%Germany’s 10-year yield fell three basis points to -0.26%Britain’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to 0.731%CommoditiesWest Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $62.44 a barrelGold climbed 0.5% to $1,779.10 an ounce.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- The aggressive rebound in global economic growth still isn’t enough for most of the world’s central banks to pull back on their emergency stimulus.In Bloomberg’s quarterly review of monetary policy covering 90% of the world economy, the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are among the 16 institutions set to hold interest rates this year.The outlook suggests officials still want to guarantee the recovery from last year’s coronavirus recession by maintaining ultra-low borrowing costs and asset-buying programs. That may require them to accept any accompanying bounce in inflation.Six central banks, most of them in emerging markets, are still predicted to hike, including Brazil, Russia and Nigeria. Turkey is the only one of those monitored which is forecast to cut borrowing costs this year.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“For advanced economies, continued virus uncertainty, deep labor market scars, and a recognition that past decisions erred on the side of deflationary preemption will conspire to keep policy looser for longer. In many emerging markets, currency stress means central banks don’t have that luxury.”--Tom Orlik, chief economistHere is Bloomberg’ quarterly guide to 23 of the world’s top central banks:GROUP OF SEVENU.S. Federal ReserveCurrent federal funds rate (upper bound): 0.25%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.25%A key question for Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues is when to start talking about scaling back their massive bond purchases if the economy continues to recover as they expect.Officials have vowed to keep buying $120 billion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed bonds every month until they see “substantial further progress” on inflation and employment. That test could be met sooner than anticipated if the U.S. labor market continues to perform as it did in March, when a better-than-expected 916,000 new jobs were added.Powell has so far avoided putting any time frame around when he thinks it’ll be appropriate to slow bond buying, but promises to give investors plenty of advance warning. The Fed has also signaled it expects to keep rates near zero through 2023.Officials at their meeting in March maintained that dovish message, according to a record of their discussion released on April 7, while Powell continues to stress the recovery remains incomplete and uneven.Part of its hesitancy to talk publicly about bond purchases stems from harsh experience: The Fed wants to avoid a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum, when unexpected news that it was thinking about slowing bond buying roiled financial markets and hurt the economy.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The U.S. economy may be launching into the fastest growth since 1983, but the Fed is firmly resolved to not only maintain the current stance of policy accommodation deeper into the recovery, but also to retract it more gradually under their new outcome-based framework for achieving its dual mandate. While Fed officials previously talked of seeing the ‘whites of the eyes’ of inflation before responding through policy tightening, the new framework is more akin to waiting to see inflation’s coattails -- as the central bank is prepared to endure a ‘transitory’ overshoot of their 2% inflation target.”--Carl RiccadonnaEuropean Central BankCurrent deposit rate: -0.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: -0.5%The ECB has pledged to keep financing conditions for governments, companies and households “favorable” until the coronavirus crisis phase is over, using its 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.2 trillion) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program to keep bond yields low, and dishing out ultra-cheap loans to banks.PEPP is due to run until at least the end of March 2022 and while policy makers say they won’t spend the full amount unless needed, most economists expect them to do so. The euro-area recovery has been delayed by a slow vaccination rollout, and ECB President Christine Lagarde has repeatedly warned of the dangers of ending support too early.The scene is set for a vibrant debate toward the end of the year on when and how to scale back emergency aid and what should replace it. In the meantime, the ECB is urging governments to hurry up with their 800 billion-euro joint recovery fund.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The ECB will continue buying bonds through its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program throughout 2021. We expect acquisitions to be front-loaded in 2Q to tackle the rise in government borrowing costs before reverting to a slower pace for the remainder of the year.”--David PowellBank of JapanCurrent policy-rate balance: -0.1%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: -0.1%The Bank of Japan is likely to be keep its main policy settings on cruise control after its biggest policy review since 2016 in March. The review gave the BOJ more scope to reduce its asset buying after a fine-tuning it characterized as a shoring up of its stimulus framework for the longer term.Despite fears of inflation elsewhere in the world, a quarterly outlook report in April is expected to show that the BOJ doesn’t see price growth reaching a stable 2% before Governor Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in April 2023. That will help back up the institution’s argument that it had to take a more flexible approach to policy.Investors and economists will closely scrutinize how the changes will affect the BOJ’s market operations including its pace of bond and ETF buying, and how quickly it will step in to stop any jumps in 10-year yields after clarifying that its target range reaches up to around 0.25%.BOJ watchers will also be looking to see if the bank extends its special pandemic funding measures from the current September expiry date. With bankruptcies falling and bank lending growing, there appears little reason to add to the measures supporting businesses. Still, with only about 1% of the population vaccinated in early April, uncertainties for the economy remain with virus cases ticking up again in some major cities.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The BOJ is preparing to shift from emergency pandemic support back to its long-elusive goal of 2% inflation. Adjustments to its yield curve control and ETF purchases add flexibility and endurance. It will be a protracted fight -- even the BOJ sees inflation falling short of target over its three-year forecast horizon. It’s set to stay on hold for the time being -- though it may need to accommodate more JGB issuance if the government steps up fiscal stimulus this summer.”--Yuki MasujimaBank of EnglandCurrent bank rate: 0.1%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.1%Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is firmly on the fence about whether his next move is to administer another dose of stimulus or monetary tightening to the U.K. economy. Financial markets already have priced out the prospect of negative rates, moving gilt yields and the pound higher than they were a year ago.After the worst recession in three centuries, the U.K. is headed for a sharp rebound after one of the world’s most successful coronavirus vaccination programs. Debate at the central bank is about whether the recovery will absorb all the workers left out of a job during the crisis and push up inflation, or leave scars that require further care.While the latest data including a boom in house prices suggest upside risks, companies are increasingly concerned that Britain’s exit from the European Union has choked back trade, leaving the prospect of a painful restructuring of the economy after the pandemic clears. At the institution’s next decision on May 6, policy makers will weigh whether to ease the pace of bond-buying, which at 4.4 billion pounds ($6 billion) a week would, unless adjusted, deliver more than the target for 150 billion pounds of stimulus this year.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The year started with speculation rife that the BOE could take the historic step of reducing rates below zero. While the central bank looks like it will formally adopt negative rates as a tool in 3Q, a rapid rollout of the vaccine and a fiscal boost in the budget have greatly reduced the chances of them being used. We expect the BOE to stay on hold for the remainder of the year, emphasizing its higher-than-usual bar for tightening policy.”--Dan HansonBank of CanadaCurrent overnight lending rate: 0.25%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.25%The Bank of Canada is signaling it will be one of the first Group of Seven central banks to start paring back monetary policy support as the nation’s economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis accelerates.Analysts anticipate next steps to pare bond purchases will come as early as a policy decision on April 21, while a so-called taper in the U.S. isn’t expected until next year.Canada’s central bank has been buying a minimum of C$4 billion ($3.2 billion) in government bonds each week, accumulating more than C$250 billion of the securities over the past year. That pace is likely no longer warranted with an outlook that appears to improving dramatically by the week, helped by a recovery in commodity prices and a robust housing market.The central bank, however, has sought to ease any worries of an imminent change to its benchmark overnight rate -- currently at 0.25%. Officials have pledged to keep it there until economic slack has been fully absorbed -- expected well after the quantitative easing program ends.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“A positive reassessment of the growth outlook will drive only a limited shift in BoC communications in April. The labor market is still a long way from full recovery, a factor that will increasingly dominate thinking about the inflation mandate. In turn, a near-term pickup in prices will be treated as transitory. Nonetheless, an announcement to reduce QE purchases at the April meeting would be consistent with prior communications, even if a rate hike is still more likely to be an early-2023 event, in our view.”--Andrew HusbyBank of Canada DashboardBRICS CENTRAL BANKSPeople’s Bank of ChinaCurrent 1-year best lending rate: 3.85%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 3.85%The PBOC cut lending rates and deployed various quantitative tools to inject liquidity into the pandemic-hit economy last year, on top of asking banks to increase loans. That helped to shore up growth but also pushed debt levels to a record high, fueling concerns of property bubbles and financial risks. With the economy’s recovery now well on track, the central bank is seeking to rein in its stimulus without derailing that rebound.The PBOC is likely to normalize policy by moderating credit expansion rather than hiking rates, economists say. Officials have said they want to match the growth in money supply and credit with the expansion in nominal GDP this year, and stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio. The PBOC recently asked banks to curtail loan growth for the rest of 2021 to keep new advances at roughly the same level as last year.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Robust growth, yet with pockets of weakness, suggest little need to the central bank to move the rate either way in 2021. In the meantime, the central bank will continue to tamp down on credit growth in a gradual taper to head off financial risks. It’s also likely to keep up targeted support for small private companies -- an area of persistent weakness in the recovery.”--Chang Shu and David QuReserve Bank of IndiaCurrent RBI repurchase rate: 4%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 4%India’s central bank formally embarked on the path of QE in early April, pledging to buy an assured amount of sovereign bonds this quarter as it fights to keep borrowing costs low and support a recovery in Asia’s third-largest economy. While the RBI already had been buying government securities in the secondary market, April’s meeting marked the first time the central bank committed upfront to buy a specified amount.Hamstrung by underlying price pressures that could gather pace in coming months, Governor Shaktikanta Das and five other members of the monetary policy committee voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 4%. However, Das pledged to maintain a dovish stance if economic conditions deteriorate as a number of provinces including Maharashtra, home to the financial capital of Mumbai, grapple with lockdowns amid a fresh wave of Covid-19 cases.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The RBI is likely to look through above-target inflation in the near term, with its primary focus on securing a durable recovery in growth. We see it holding the repo rate at 4% through the fiscal year ending March 2022. Sovereign bond purchases in its new QE program will be its main easing tool in the quarters ahead and should help tamp down longer-term yields to keep borrowing costs low to support the economy.”--Abhishek GuptaCentral Bank of BrazilCurrent Selic target rate: 2.75%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 5.5%Brazil’s central bank has begun paring back monetary stimulus as inflation surges despite a new wave of the pandemic that threatens the economic recovery. Policy makers raised the benchmark Selic rate by 75 basis points in March, the most in a decade, and signaled that a second move of the same magnitude is on the way at their next decision in May.Despite the institution’s assurances that price shocks are temporary, futures traders are betting even bigger hikes are in the pipeline. Driven by higher fuel costs, annual inflation blew past the upper limit of the central bank’s target range in March, hitting a four-year high.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Recent actions and communications suggest the BCB will try to right the fiscal wrong with monetary policy. Fiscal uncertainties were an important driver of the currency meltdown in the first quarter; their likely persistence suggests that the real may remain misaligned with Brazil’s robust external fundamentals. In the meantime, the BCB is set to continue to raise the policy rate, fearful of the inflationary impacts of the weaker currency, and regardless of economic slack. The real may close the year at 5.30 per U.S. dollar, and the Selic at 5.5% -- still below the neutral rate (estimated to be 6% to 7%).”--Adriana DupitaBank of RussiaCurrent key rate: 4.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 5.5%The Bank of Russia surprised markets by starting its rate-hiking cycle earlier than expected. The inflation spike proved to be more prominent than policy makers thought before, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said after the board raised the key rate by 25 basis points in March and signaled more increases. The central bank will start publishing forecasts for the key-rate range starting their next meeting on April 23.The ruble dropped in value after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russian sovereign ruble bonds at the primary market. It recovered some of the losses but the risk of additional steps is weighing on the currency. The U.S. has also warned of “consequences” if jailed opposition leader Alexey Navalny dies. These heightened geopolitical tensions are providing another argument for a bigger rate hike this week.Inflation peaked in March at the level last seen in late 2016, fueled by food prices and the weaker ruble. President Vladimir Putin made the cost of living a political issue when he told the government in December to put caps on prices of certain goods. Since then, Russia increased export duty on grain and negotiated with producers to set limits on some food staples. All administrative steps to curb prices are distorting the market signals and Russia needs to move away from that, Nabiullina said recently.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Spiking inflation and a swift rebound in demand caught the Bank of Russia by surprise. Higher yields and fresh sanctions are layering on risk. Policy makers have turned hawkish, signaling significant tightening in 2021. We expect a steady pace of quarter-point hikes in the near term, which will give the central bank some room to maneuver in the second half of the year.”--Scott JohnsonSouth African Reserve BankCurrent repo average rate: 3.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 3.5%The South African central bank’s next move will be to tighten as it projects inflation will tick up to around the 4.5% mid-point of its target range. Still, the timing of the first hike is uncertain.The implied policy rate path of the MPC’s quarterly projection model in March indicated two increases of 25 basis points in the second and fourth quarters of 2021. Last week, Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the central bank is in no rush to take the benchmark back to where it was before the pandemic and that it would likely maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance to support the economy as long as the inflation outlook gives it room to do so.Forward-rate agreements, used to speculate borrowing costs are pricing in only one 25 basis point increase by year-end. Most economists are less hawkish and see the rate remaining at its record low until the end of 2021.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The coronavirus is likely to keep spreading until there’s a significant ramp up in the governments vaccination program. As such, the economy is will remain fragile and highly unpredictable this year. This, together with the benign inflation outlook should keep rates on hold this year.”--Boingotlo GasealahweMINT CENTRAL BANKSBanco de MexicoCurrent overnight rate: 4%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 4%Mexico’s central bank held its benchmark rate at 4% in March, amid an inflation surge that is leading many economists to predict its monetary easing cycle has drawn to a close. Led by rising fuel costs, consumer prices rose 4.67% last month from a year earlier, jumping above the ceiling of the institution’s target.Governor Alejandro Diaz de Leon still didn’t close the door to additional rate cuts, saying that officials will continue taking a data-dependent approach to monetary policy. Consumer prices, he said, have been pressured by supply shocks, a weaker peso, and a shift in demand for goods instead of services, but the Mexican economy is likely to have a negative output gap “for some time.”Banxico, as the bank is known, expects annual inflation to peak during the second quarter, before slowing toward the end of the year.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“We expect Banxico to hold its benchmark rate at 4% in 2021. The rate remains high relative to peers and previous economic downturns, but resilient high inflation due to lingering shocks offset disinflationary pressure from ample economic slack and limit room for more accommodation.”--Felipe HernandezBank IndonesiaCurrent 7-day reverse repo rate: 3.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 3.75%Rising global bond yields have all but shut Bank Indonesia’s window for further easing this year. Governor Perry Warjiyo is turning his attention to preserving the country’s interest-rate differential from the U.S. to stem foreign outflows and protect the battered rupiah, which he considers “very undervalued.” Targeted macroprudential measures, such as the recent relaxation of home and auto loan rules, will likely be Warjiyo’s main lever to revive bank lending and aid growth.The central bank insists it won’t unwind monetary support for the economy anytime soon, with demand and inflation still weak. The institution also has signaled that when it is time to tighten, it could focus on restricting liquidity before raising rates.That will be one less thing for investors to worry about as they keep an eye on growing political pressure for BI to work more closely with the government. President Joko Widodo has called for the central bank’s mandate to be expanded to include employment and economic growth, even as he pledged to respect BI’s autonomy.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Bank Indonesia appears limited in its ability to cut rates further this year, even though still-sluggish domestic demand is likely to justify more easing. Instead, heavy capital outflows -- linked to U.S. reflation and concerns about new constraints put on BI’s independence -- may require rate hikes to support the rupiah, instead of more concerted FX intervention that depletes reserves. Other measures would likely be deployed to counter the drag on domestic demand.”--Tamara HendersonCentral Bank of TurkeyCurrent 1-week repo rate: 19%Forecast for end of 2021: 16%Installed after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan abruptly fired his market-friendly predecessor following a bigger-than-expected rate increase, new Governor Sahap Kavcioglu is under pressure to reduce borrowing costs to boost growth.Turkey’s central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged in Kavcioglu’s first monetary policy meeting. While the decision matched market expectations, the institution omitted an earlier pledge to keep monetary policy tight and even deliver additional hikes if needed. Although Kavcigolu has said he would not rush to loosen the stance he inherited, the changes in the rates statement prompted further speculation that cuts might be imminent.Meantime, Erdogan, who holds the unorthodox view that high rates cause inflation, continues to express his determination to both reduce price growth and reduce borrowing costs to single digits.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The recent firing of the central bank governor sends a clear message about the direction of policy: growth at all costs will be pursued. But rising U.S. yields, higher oil prices and lira depreciation will prevent rate cuts in the short term. If global conditions warrant tightening, it’ll be delivered through the backdoor.”--Ziad DaoudCentral Bank of NigeriaCurrent central bank rate: 11.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 13%The Nigerian central bank is inching closer to hiking its benchmark rate for the first time since July 2016. In March, three of nine MPC members who attended the policy-setting meeting voted to tighten by at least 50 basis points, a shift from January when the panel was unanimous in its decision to hold.Governor Godwin Emefiele said at the time the central bank can only effectively shift to taming inflation that’s at a four-year high once the recovery of Africa’s largest economy from last year’s recession has reached a comfortable level. Since then the International Monetary Fund has increased its projection for the country’s 2021 output growth to 2.5% from 1.5%. That would be the fastest expansion since 2015.A rebound in oil prices could improve the prospects for growth further, giving the central bank room to focus on taming inflation, even if it’s only from the second half of the year. Higher rates will also help support the naira, which was devalued twice in 2020.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Nigeria’s inflation rate continues to surge, and has been stuck above the central bank target range for the past five years. However, the Central Bank of Nigeria has overlooked the recent uptick, choosing instead to support the economy with a 200 basis point rate cut. We expect it to hike rates again this year, when the recovery has gathered pace and the policy focus shifts back to inflation.”--Boingotlo GasealahweOTHER G-20 CENTRAL BANKSBank of KoreaCurrent base rate: 0.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.5%The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain a long hold as its optimism over the economy is tempered by continued uncertainty over the outlook and a slow vaccine rollout. The central bank sees faster-than-previously expected growth in the mid-3% range as exports surge on global tech demand and recoveries in China and the U.S. But Governor Lee Ju-yeol has played down talk that a tightening of policy is anywhere near the horizon.Keeping the BOK cautious is a renewed uptick in domestic virus cases. The resurgence is pushing the government to consider ramping up public restrictions on activity. A shortage of vaccines is also making it increasingly unlikely that the country will achieve its goal of herd immunity by year-end. If things take a turn for the worse, the central bank doesn’t have much room to go the other way and reduce its benchmark rate further after 75 basis points of cuts last year. Rising household debt poses a risk to the country’s financial stability and Lee has said the rate is already near its lower bound.For the time being, standing pat appears the institution’s best option for safeguarding the recovery while ensuring financial imbalances don’t accumulate further. The majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg see the BOK holding its policy rate at the current level until the third quarter of next year.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The Bank of Korea has likely reached the end of its easing cycle. While uncertainties surrounding the pandemic remain high, South Korea’s economy is poised to rebound in 2021 and the central bank remains concerned about growing financial risks. The BOK has cautioned that the government’s large borrowing plans could lead to bond market imbalances, but it will continue using ad-hoc bond purchases to contain yields rather than shift to QE.”--Justin JimenezReserve Bank of AustraliaCurrent cash rate target: 0.1%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.1%With the RBA targeting unemployment in the low 4% range and pledging rates won’t rise until inflation has sustainably returned to the 2-3% target, monetary stimulus will be in play for some time.The central bank has reinforced the economy’s rapid recovery by holding down borrowing costs through a firm defense of three-year debt -- its variant of yield curve control. That has also helped weaken the currency a touch in combination with QE that targets 5-10 year securities outside the YCC framework.Key decisions over whether to roll over the yield target to the November 2024 maturity, and whether to extend QE when the current round expires in September/October will likely be influenced by the economy’s resilience to a withdrawal of government stimulus.While the RBA has also said it will “carefully” monitor surging home prices, any action to stem gains is likely to come from tighter bank lending rules, not monetary tightening.The RBA has learned from its experience in 2009, when it led the world in raising rates. This time round it will wait for other major economies to move first to avoid renewed currency strength choking off the expansion.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Last year was a consequential one for the RBA -- it ventured into yield curve control and QE. This year it will be less active, focused more on fine tuning. A pressing task will be to curb appreciation in the local currency. Another, working with other regulators to reinstate macro prudential policy restraints to restrain a resurgent housing market. Labor market slack is set to damp inflation, and keep the cash rate unchanged, for several years yet.”--James McIntyreCentral Bank of ArgentinaCurrent rate floor: 38%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 38%Argentina has relied on a mix of orthodox and unconventional policies to maintain its currency market relatively calm. While largely refraining so far this year from the mass money printing of 2020, policy makers have amplified price controls and slowed a crawling peg depreciation in a bid to cool inflation, currently around 40% a year. In order to absorb liquidity, the central bank has allowed financial institutions to pile into its short-term debt, with the amount of outstanding repo notes rising to over 1.5 trillion pesos ($16.2 billion) from 125 billion pesos a year ago.Monetary policy in the medium term remains clouded by the uncertainty surrounding negotiations with the IMF. The government has indicated a deal is unlikely to happen before mid-term elections in October, and Central Bank President Miguel Pesce has stayed on the sidelines of talks. While foreign reserves have slightly rebounded this year, they hover near a four-year low. The government’s strict currency controls, once labeled temporary measures, have no expiration date in sight.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The IMF will probably require Argentina to adjust its policies in exchange for an Extended Fund Facility deal. Until then, however, we expect the BCRA to stay put. The policy rate will likely be on hold at 38% even as inflation accelerates, and the peso will likely depreciate at a pace slightly below inflation. Once a deal is struck -- likely after the October mid-term legislative elections -- the BCRA will probably bring real rates to positive territory and to reduce the currency misalignment.”--Adriana DupitaG-10 CURRENCIES AND EAST EUROPE ECONOMIESSwiss National BankCurrent policy rate: -0.75%Median economist forecast for end of 2021: -0.75%The SNB’s monetary policy consists of negative rates and currency-market interventions.In light of the small local bond market, the strategy is the most effective, SNB President Thomas Jordan has said. Data also indicate the intensity of interventions has diminished in recent months, as the franc dropped versus the euro.Having slumped the most in decades due to the pandemic, the Swiss economy is due to return to its pre-crisis level in the latter half of this year. Still, inflation also remains weak.Sveriges RiksbankCurrent repo rate: 0%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0%Sweden’s central bank remains focused on bond purchases to keep rates low and stabilize markets. Still, Some policy makers are highlighting the option of a rate cut to stimulate demand and restore confidence in the Riksbank’s 2% inflation target.The central bank kept rates unchanged at its last meeting, and maintained its QE program at 700 billion kronor ($82 billion). Policy makers agreed that it was too soon to discuss withdrawing monetary support despite signs of economic stabilization and an uptick in consumer prices.Governor Stefan Ingves has signaled he prefers QE to rate cuts, and said last month he sees no risk of above-target inflation “in the foreseeable future.” Meanwhile, the property market soaring to record price levels is an increasing worry for Ingves, who said Sweden’s high level of household debt “will become problematic sooner or later.”What Bloomberg Economics Says:“A rebound in global trade is benefiting export-oriented Sweden and the economy has recouped more of the pandemic loss than expected by Riksbank. Short-term risks from new virus measures and a weak outlook for inflation due to modest wage growth still means policy makers won’t be in any hurry to withdraw support. The Riksbank has extended its bond-buying scheme until end-2021. We expect Ingves to stay on hold as the recovery takes shape.”--Johanna JeanssonNorges BankCurrent deposit rate: 0%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.25%Norway’s central bank is expected to be the first among wealthy western nations to tighten policy after its economy took a smaller hit than most in 2020. Its March forecast implies that the likelihood of a rate increase is split 50/50 between September and December.While soaring house prices signal financial imbalances are building up, Governor Oystein Olsen has said substantial uncertainty still remains regarding the recovery.Norway’s economic resilience has been boosted in part by an effective lockdown strategy and billions of dollars in government support backed by the country’s $1.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund. Still, restrictions to fight the spread of the more contagious strains of Covid-19 this year have hampered the recovery, with a deeper contraction in the first two months than the central bank had forecast.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“A quick rebound from the pandemic slump, sharply rising house prices and above target inflation during the past year give the central bank reason to think about leaving zero rates behind. But not yet. We expect extended virus restrictions to weigh on domestic demand until late in the second quarter. Norges Bank will likely wait until 4Q before lifting off.”--Johanna JeanssonReserve Bank of New ZealandCurrent cash rate: 0.25%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2021: 0.25%New Zealand’s red-hot housing market has been driving the outlook for monetary policy this year after the government changed the RBNZ’s remit, forcing it to take house prices into account. After an initial flurry of bets that the central bank could start raising rates in 2022, the emerging consensus is that the cash rate will stay at its record low for longer. That’s partly because a raft of new government measures to cool the property market have taken the pressure off the RBNZ to act.While New Zealand’s successful handling of the pandemic initially enabled its economy to stage a V-shaped recovery, it now faces the possibility of a double-dip recession as its closed border hurts its tourism sector. The opening of a long-awaited travel bubble with Australia in April may help alleviate the pain, but support for the economy is still needed to ensure the recovery stays on track this time. Governor Adrian Orr has also made clear he wants to see a sustained inflation pickup before he considers removing stimulus.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The RBNZ looks set to keep rates on hold this year. It’s likely to use other tools -- the Funding for Lending program and asset purchases -- if needed to add more support or to sustain maximum downward pressure on the currency. Its immediate attention is likely to remain on surging house prices, which have elevated financial stability risks. It’s already taken macro prudential policy steps, alongside government measures to rein in investor demand. The risks lie with further macro prudential tightening over 2021.”--James McIntyreNational Bank of PolandCurrent cash rate: 0.1%Median economist forecast for end of 2021: 0.1%Poland’s central bank intends to keep its benchmark rate at a record low until at least early next year, when the term of the Monetary Policy Council ends.The economy shrank for the first time in nearly three decades in 2020, and offficials responded by introducing a QE program and reducing the key rate from 1.5% in three steps between March and May.The EU’s biggest eastern economy is set to rebound this year, though the outlook has recently become more uncertain on the third wave of the pandemic.Even as neighboring central banks in the Czech Republic and Hungary are seen taking a less accommodative approach, their policies “play no role whatsoever” in monetary policy in Poland, according to Governor Adam Glapinski.Czech National BankCurrent cash rate: 0.25%Median economist forecast for end of 2021: 0.5%The Czech central bank has been telegraphing monetary tightening for over half a year but the prolonged coronavirus crisis is set to delay the first rate increase until the third quarter.Government programs to protect jobs are driving wages up and deferred consumption is set to fuel inflation once shops and services reopen after one of the world’s deadliest Covid-19 outbreaks. Still, policy makers agreed in March that a “longer-lasting pandemic-induced downturn” will probably mean a slower pace of monetary tightening than outlined in the institution’s forecast, which assumed three rate hikes for this year.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
The RBA has recently said the unemployment rate needs to be in the “low 4s” or “high 3s” to generate wage and price pressures, from 5.6% now.
The dollar rose on Tuesday as interest rates in the United States moved in a tight range and a drop in oil prices hit crude-linked currencies. After touching its lowest level in nearly seven weeks, the dollar index against major currencies rose 0.2% to 91.204 in the afternoon in New York. The currency and yield declines have come as evidence mounted that the Federal Reserve would be slower about tightening monetary policy than it had appeared to the market, analysts said.
(Bloomberg) -- Nikola Corp. shares fell Tuesday to the lowest since December 2018, accelerating a selloff that has now erased all their gains since the electric-vehicle startup went public via blank-check company last year.The electric-truck maker -- once briefly more valuable than Ford Motor Co. -- closed down 6.2% at $9.65 in New York, bringing it below the $10 level at which VectoIQ Acquisition Corp., the special-purpose acquisition company that acquired Nikola, debuted in June 2018.Nikola’s shares have lost their luster after much fanfare since it closed its reverse merger with VectoIQ in June 2020. That month, it rallied to an intraday high of $93.99, catapulting Nikola’s market capitalization above $28 billion. The company’s valuation has since slumped to $3.8 billion.Since then, it has been mired in bad news: a collapsed deal to build trucks with General Motors Co., an internal probe that found it made several inaccurate statements, and an inability to meet initial production guidance for its first commercial zero-emission vehicles.Read more: Nikola Faces Daunting Future With Far Fewer Friends Than BeforeNikola’s slump is also part of broader weakness for electric-vehicle stocks this year as the threat of competition from incumbent players increased and rapid economic growth fueled a rotation into value stocks. Now traditional automakers are making a comeback as they vow to rapidly expand their presence in the EV market, shrinking the potential market share of startups like Nikola.Last week, shares of another electric truck startup, Lordstown Motors Corp., also fell below the $10 level, the price at which the blank-check company it merged with debuted in April 2019.Shares of the big three Detroit automakers have rallied this year on aggressive plans to compete in the EV market. General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis NV -- the owner of Chrysler -- all announced plans to shift into EV technology during the March quarter, joining a growing list of peers including Volkswagen AG and BMW AG in trying to convince investors they too offer exposure to the industry.For many of Nikola’s private early investors -- including Fidelity and P. Schoenfeld Asset Management LP -- the slump could mean they’ve suffered losses if they’ve held onto shares. The ValueAct Spring fund, which was another early investor in Nikola, moved to Inclusive Capital Partners in the summer of 2020. The Spring Fund was led by Jeff Ubben, who remains invested in Nikola though Inclusive.(Updates stock move in second and third paragraphs, investor details in eighth.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Canada is poised to pare back its asset purchases amid a stronger-than-expected economic recovery, taking one of the biggest steps yet by a developed country to reduce emergency levels of monetary stimulus.Governor Tiff Macklem is expected to cut the central bank’s weekly government bond purchases on Wednesday to C$3 billion ($2.4 billion), from the current pace of C$4 billion. Officials may also give clues to whether they expect to bring forward their timeline for interest rate hikes, with current guidance pointing to no move before 2023.The policy decision, due at 10 a.m. in Ottawa, is a pivotal one for the central bank. Its quantitative easing program is too large given the size of Canada’s bond market. Just on technical grounds, it needs to be pared back as the government’s financing requirements drop.At the same time, a case is growing for less stimulus. The economy is running at a much faster clip than the Bank of Canada has been projecting, forcing officials to start laying the groundwork for the start of policy normalization.“The economic outlook has improved markedly since January”, Dominique Lapointe, an economist at Laurentian Bank Securities Inc., said by email. “The Bank of Canada is ready to take its foot off the accelerator.”Officials won’t want to get too far ahead of other major central banks like the Federal Reserve, which has been wary to talk about scaling back. If the Bank of Canada moves alone, it could trigger a currency appreciation that would be self-defeating.To be sure, the Bank of Canada’s asset purchases have been more aggressive than others in the Group of Seven, at least relative to the size of the nation’s bond market.The central bank has bought about C$280 billion in Canadian government bonds over the past year, ballooning its balance sheet to around one-quarter of economic output. It now owns more than 40% of outstanding bonds and is on pace to go above 50% in a few months as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government reduces its issuance by about C$90 billion this year, according to estimates by Ian Pollick, head of fixed income, currency and commodity research at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.It’s a massive footprint that threatens to create financial distortions -- a concern that led Macklem to reduce minimum weekly purchases in October, from C$5 billion initially. At the time, officials characterized the taper as neutral in terms of stimulus, because they shifted purchases toward long-term bonds concurrently. The more the tapering takes place in the short end of the yield curve -- two-year and three-year bonds -- the less the impact on financial conditions.“In some ways they’re being forced into a taper,” Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said by phone.What Bloomberg Economics Says...“The economy is working through a third wave of Covid-19 and new restrictions, but the growth and labor market outlooks are still significantly stronger than the BoC envisioned in January, meeting the guideline for a reduction.”--Andrew Husby, economistFor the full report, click hereBut the improving economic outlook does give the central bank more scope to pare back now, and policy makers have been clear that a stimulus pullback is coming for reasons beyond those technical issues. The bank laid the ground rules for what that would look like in a speech last month by Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle, who said tapering will be “gradual and in measured steps.”What the central bank won’t do is touch its short-term benchmark interest rate, its primary monetary policy tool. Economists unanimously see the bank holding it unchanged at 0.25% at the announcement. Not only is the rate at historic lows, but the central bank has pledged not to raise it until all economic slack is full absorbed, so inflation can return sustainably to its 2% target.When that will be depends on a lot of guess work.Up until January, when the Bank of Canada last released economic forecasts, it projected that threshold wouldn’t be reached until 2023.The economy, however, has outperformed spectacularly relative to the Bank of Canada’s projections since then. As a result, markets are anticipating the central bank will bring forward its rate increase, with a 60% probability of a hike this time next year.There is scope for Macklem to push back against those expectations.Economic slack is hard to measure and that gives him leeway to argue faster growth doesn’t mean there will be less excess supply. The central bank can also express heightened concern about the uneven recovery in the labor market -- giving it even more discretion. Then there is the seriousness of the current wave of Covid-19 cases, which is the worst so far in parts of the country. That prompted Canada’s largest province, Ontario, to take its most aggressive steps yet to restrict the movement of people last week.“I think they will keep to this cautious optimism,” Dawn Desjardins, deputy chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada, said by phone.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. Treasury on Monday named climate change financial adviser John Morton to head the department's new "climate hub," disappointing activists who had sought a strong regulator to push financial institutions toward green investments. John Morton, a partner with climate change advisory and investment firm Pollination Group, will work to foster green finance and use tax policy and financial risk assessments to help reduce carbon emissions as climate counselor to Secretary Janet Yellen, the Treasury said.
(Bloomberg) -- UiPath Inc. and its shareholders raised $1.3 billion in an initial public offering, pricing shares above a marketed range but valuing the automation software maker below its February funding round.The company and investors sold almost 24 million shares on Tuesday for $56 each, according to a statement confirming an earlier Bloomberg News report. The shares had been marketed for $52 to $54, a range that the company elevated on Monday from $43 to $50.The listing gives the company a market value of $29 billion based on the outstanding shares listed in its prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Including employee stock options and restricted stock units, that valuation is more than $31 billion.UiPath raised $750 million in a fundraising round in February that valued it at $35 billion. That round was led by Alkeon Capital and Coatue, according to a statement at the time. A dip in some software stocks since then -- including Snowflake Inc., which is down 20% from Feb. 1 -- played a part in the IPO pricing decision, said a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because the information was private.The valuation is still triple that in July, when the company said it was valued at $10.2 billion in a funding round, up from a valuation of $7 billion in a 2019 round.In the IPO, UiPath sold about 9.4 million shares while shareholders including its chairman and backers Accel and Alphabet Inc.’s investment fund offered 14.5 million, according to its filings.Started in an apartment in Romania with 10 people in 2005, UiPath now has a presence in close to 30 countries, Chief Executive Officer and co-founder Daniel Dines wrote in a letter to investors. “Starting a company from a small place with no market has a hidden advantage: It forces you to think globally from day one,” he wrote.CEO’s ControlDines, who is also chairman, owns all of UiPath’s Class B shares, which represent 88.2% of the voting power in the company, the filing shows.UiPath, now based in New York, reported a net loss of $92 million on $608 million revenue in the 2021 fiscal year ending Jan. 31. Its net loss narrowed from $520 million a year ago thanks to foreign exchange gains. It had $336 million in revenue a year earlier.The offering is being led by Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co.. UiPath‘s shares are expected to begin trading Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol PATH.(Updates with statement in second paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Cathie Wood, the founder of ARK Invest, is taking Wall Street by storm with her unconventional thematic investing. Namely, she follows an innovative fund style to find hyper-growth stocks with game-changing technology. Certainly, her unique method is working. To be sure, five out of six ARK ETFs posted more than 100% returns in last year alone. Result? Her funds saw a massive inflow of $20.6 billion, according to data from Morningstar, Portfolio Insider, and Nasdaq. Recently, Wall Street saw a heavy rotation into value stocks. But don’t count Cathie Wood as one of them. Instead, she is doubling down her bets on these innovative companies. “The benchmarks are filling up with value traps” due to the pace of innovation in fields including artificial intelligence and robotics, Wood said. “We think the big risk is in the benchmarks, not what we’re doing.” Billionaire Cathie Wood's predictions are must-follow because of her historic returns in the last three years -- with her picks soaring many times above their original share prices. Case in point: Last year, Ms. Wood’s ARK Genomic Revolution ETF, ARK Innovation ETF, and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF reaped returns of 159%, 203%, and 157%, respectively. Now, here are four technology stocks with huge potential that Cathie Wood has bought for her funds: 1. Coinbase (NASDAQ: COIN) Surely, Cathie Wood is bullish on cryptocurrency. She has been buying hand over fist in the largest cryptocurrency exchange and digital wallet service provider Coinbase. On the day when Coinbase made its public debut, ARK Invest scooped up 749,205 shares. A few days later, it added another 340,273 shares (worth nearly $112,970,000 million) to its position. Never shy from making bold predictions, Wood believes that digital wallets can develop into the most valuable technology of this era, pointing out its unprecedented speed of organic growth. "Digital wallets could become the most valuable technology developments per user of almost anything. We're pretty excited about that. If you were to draw a graph as we did in our big ideas showing how JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) got to these levels, it was one acquisition after the other, whereas Cash App and Venmo, because they are viral in nature, have gotten there organically," Cathie Wood said. Recent reports have supported Wood’s prediction. The digital wallet payments have surpassed the physical card for usage at contactless in-store payments and at the point-of-sale (POS) in 2020, according to the Global Payments Report. Plus, in-store cash payments fell by at least 50% in 2020 in advanced economies. 2. Unity Software (NYSE: U) A real-time 3D development platform Unity Software is trading at a bargain-basement price, in Cathie Wood’s view. She has been boosting her Unity Software stake over the last two months as the stock fell by 34% year to date. Despite the recent selloff, the company’s future fundamentals look strong based on revenue growth projections. Unity Software expects 2021 revenue in the range of $950 million to $970 million, in line with the company’s plan of sustaining 30% revenue growth in the long run. Unity CEO John Riccitiello said: “As the leader in creating and operating tools for the world of real-time 3D content, we continue to invest with the intent to capture what we believe is a substantial opportunity ahead in 2021 and years beyond.” 3. Shopify (NYSE: SHOP) Wood believes that Shopify can be as big as online retail giant Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) someday. As a result, Cathie Wood saw the dip in Shopify stock as a buying opportunity. Her firm added to its existing stake in e-commerce platform last week, according to Portfolio Insider. "We're trying to figure out how Amazon is going to deal with this notion of individuals seeing something on Instagram or elsewhere on Facebook or on Twitter, or on Snap and just buying there," Wood said. "That's a Shopify-enabled commerce opportunity and we think it's going to be big." Recently, Shopify’s stock price pulled back slightly from its recent all-time high of $1,500 that it had hit early in February. Regardless of the short-term price movements, SHOP’s stock price upside is likely to be tightly wounded to its growth trends. So far, so good: Shopify’s fourth-quarter revenue jumped 94% while 2020 revenue surged 86%. 4. Sea Limited (NYSE: SE) Cathie Wood has also been on a shopping spree with Sea Limited this year. The biggest lure of Sea Limited is how they can integrate dozens of their businesses into each other. Sea Limited has tentacles in eSports, mobile gaming, e-commerce, digital payments, and food delivery services. And the company is aggressively expanding its market penetration outside its home country in China, especially in Latin America and Southeast Asia. These segments have generated triple-digit revenue growth for Sea Limited. As a result, its consolidated revenue grew more than 100% in 2020, and it expects to extend that momentum into 2021. Cathie Wood first initiated a position in Sea Limited during the final quarter of 2019, and she has only continued to add her stake over time. See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from Benzinga84% Of Warren Buffett's Portfolio In 2021 Is In These 3 Categories© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
The student debt burden among older Americans is growing at an alarming rate.
The DOGE frenzy appears to have spread to decentralized finance, where several imitator tokens have chalked up staggering single-day gains.
Overstock CEO Jonathan “JJ” Johnson says he's hoping that one day tZero, a much smaller trading platform that offers some services similar to Coinbase, will be a legitimate rival to the crypto behemoth that just listed on the Nasdaq Inc. last Wednesday with a valuation that briefly hit around $100 billion.
China will suspend the ability of foreign investors to trade if they cause serious market volatility through massive capital flows in a short period of time, a senior Chinese regulatory official has said. "Many people are asking whether foreign ownership will affect the stability of our stock market," said Fang Xinghai, vice-chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, at the Boao Forum for Asia on Monday. "What if massive amounts of foreign capital come in and go out? I can tell you that we will take precautionary measures." Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team. Fang Xinghai, vice-chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, says regulators are wary about the potential for market disruption by foreign hedge funds. Photo: Simon Song alt=Fang Xinghai, vice-chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, says regulators are wary about the potential for market disruption by foreign hedge funds. Photo: Simon Song> "We had a provision when we designed the Stock Connect that if a foreign investor comes in and causes significant volatility in the stock market, we can temporarily stop it from trading," he said. Stock Connect has a daily quota restricting the maximum net value of cross-boundary trading flows, with daily "northbound" flows into China limited to 52 billion yuan (US$7.9 billion) and "southbound" flows to Hong Kong capped at 42 billion yuan. Besides Stock Connect, foreigners can also invest in China A-shares via the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor and RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor programmes. Fang's comments come as foreign investors have increased their purchases of Chinese stocks, encouraged by liberalised rules last year that gave more leeway to overseas funds to repatriate their dividends and capital gains from the world's second-largest stock market. Following the easing of rules last year, a survey by Standard Chartered released last month showed 59 per cent of respondents would increase their allocations of Chinese assets in the coming 12 months. Foreign investors bought a net 16.3 billion yuan worth of Chinese A-shares via Stock Connect on Monday, the second highest net purchases this year, after having bought a net 24.7 billion yuan last week, exceeding the 18.7 billion for the month of March as a whole, according to the official Securities Daily. Driven by declining short-term interest rates and upbeat corporate earnings, the A-share market is expected to "continue to rebound", said Southwestern Securities in a note. But if capital was to start flowing out on a massive scale, there is a risk the Chinese currency would depreciate and trigger further capital outflows. This happened on a modest scale in February and March, with the yuan's exchange rate against the US dollar dropping more than 1 per cent as a result. Last month, FTSE Russell, the global index, data and analytics provider, added China A-Shares to the FTSE MPF Index Series, the core equity benchmarks used by the Mandatory Provident Fund industry. China's domestic equities had already joined MSCI's benchmark indexes in 2017. At the end of last month, foreigners owned 5 per cent of Chinese A-shares, still a "relatively low" level, said Fang. "With more foreign capital coming in recent years, our stock market has been running much smoother, as foreign capital is playing a more important role in market pricing ... We will continue to create conditions to lure more foreign investments," said Fang. Chinese authorities have a "clear view" about the priorities of foreign investors and are not worried about individual investors, whose proportion of overall stock ownership is very small and will not affect the financial stability, Fang said. The country also welcomes foreign mutual funds, pension funds and insurance companies, which have the highest proportion of A-shares among foreign investors. But Chinese regulators are wary about the potential for market disruption by foreign hedge funds and so their operations will be watched closely, said Fang. "Once massive volatility is caused by some investors, their trading will be suspended to prevent further volatility," he said. This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2021 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. Copyright (c) 2021. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Just last Friday, the S&P 500 had closed at a record high. This week, the index can’t seem to find its footing.
(Bloomberg) -- Christopher Giancarlo, the former chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission who’s known as “Crypto Dad” for his early embrace of digital assets, joined the board of cryptocurrency lender BlockFi.Giancarlo, 61, headed the CFTC when the Chicago Board Options Exchange and CME Group Inc. first offered Bitcoin futures contracts. He gained tens of thousands of followers on Twitter after his February 2018 congressional testimony in which he advocated for a “do no harm” regulatory stance toward blockchain products, the comments that earned him his nickname.“It’s been fascinating to see how the whole ecosystem around crypto is morphing so fast,” Giancarlo said in an interview. There’s a healthy combination of retail and institutional interest in the market for digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ether, he said. Yet the banks have been slow to embrace the new asset class.“The opportunity for the BlockFis of the world is the traditional lenders haven’t showed up yet, and yet there’s incredible demand” for dollars and other fiat currency to be used to buy crypto, he said. “The future of money and things of value is digital.”Giancarlo joins a range of former regulators and Wall Street executives who have jumped to industry roles, including Ben Lawsky, the former head of the New York State Department of Financial Services who’s on the board of Ripple Labs Inc. Gary Cohn, the former president of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., serves on the board of blockchain startup Spring Labs.Read More: Crypto Shadow Banking Explained and Why 12% Yields Are CommonSome of the largest non-bank firms in cryptocurrency, including BitGo, BlockFi, Galaxy Digital and Genesis, are stepping up to meet investor demand for dollars amid a longstanding wariness by banks to lend to individuals or companies associated with Bitcoin and other digital assets. They’re lending to hedge funds that need cash to buy Bitcoin for a trade with minimal risk that has been paying out annualized returns that have recently hit 20% to 40%.BlockFi is a akin to a bank for the virtual-currency realm, paying interest on crypto deposits and making cash loans using those holdings as collateral. It also offers a credit card with Bitcoin rewards, as well as a Bitcoin Trust that gives investors exposure without requiring actual purchases of the digital currency.Giancarlo recalled his time at the CFTC when Cboe and CME Group self-certified the first U.S. Bitcoin futures contracts.“It was not without its controversy,” he said, adding that Thomas Peterffy, chairman of Interactive Brokers, placed a full-page ad in the Wall Street Journal decrying the move and saying words to the effect of, “Don’t let Bitcoin futures come about or the western world will end.” Even Wall Street’s futures group, the Futures Industry Association, was against the idea, he said.While Cboe dropped its Bitcoin contract, CME Group’s has been a success, and the exchange recently added Ether futures.Giancarlo also serves as senior counsel to law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP, is on the advisory board of the Chamber of Digital Commerce and acts as an independent director of the American Financial Exchange. He was recently nominated to the board of Nomura Holdings Inc. and is a co-founder of the Digital Dollar Project.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
A group of Democratic Senators, led by Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Raphael Warnock (D-GA), sent a letter urging the Education Department (ED) to restore defaulted student loans to on-time status amid the ongoing payment pause, Yahoo Finance has learned.
Business owners around Minneapolis, where the Derek Chauvin trial has been held, have been on edge over the last year.
The Dogecoin faithful have declared April 20 “Doge Day,” but on Wall Street, having your own ‘day’ is no guarantee of legitimacy or longevity.
Investor euphoria has gone of the boil in the U.S. stock market. U.S. equities had their biggest outflows last week since mid-November and the fifth largest since 2008, according to a BofA Global Research report on Tuesday. Investors sold a net $5.2 billion in U.S. equities, with retail clients being the only buyers last week as the S&P 500 index rose to an all-time high.
The commercial aerospace giant raised its retirement age for CEO Dave Calhoun, 64, and announced that 54-year-old CFO Greg Smith is retiring.