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Study suggests polls are missing shy Trump voters

Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman joins the On the Move panel to discuss a new study that says polls are missing shy Trump voters.

Video Transcript

JULIE HYMAN: And I think we could talk for hours sort of trying to dissect the various statements made last night, as well as whether it was a good idea to have all those people packed together on the lawn. But I do want to bring in a study, Rick, that just came out from a company called Cloud Research. It's an online market research company.

They found that almost 11% of Republicans, 10 and 1/2% of independents would not give their true opinion when polled on who they were voting for. What implications does this have in the wake of the RNC about how many votes President Trump's going to get?

RICK NEWMAN: Well, this gets to the idea of the so-called shy Trump voter, who supports Trump and wants to vote for Trump but is not willing to tell pollsters that. So this might, in theory, explain why Trump is trailing fairly badly to Joe Biden in the polls. I'm a little bit skeptical, and I think a lot of political analysts are skeptical that there are shy Trump voters left.

I mean, first of all look, at all the rallies, the MAGA rallies and everything else we see. Are those voters shy? No, they're not. The [INAUDIBLE] for Trump, are those voters shy? No, they're not.

And although the polls in 2016 were wrong in a few of the crucial swing states, notably Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, the polls were right on a national level. The polls got the popular vote for Trump just about right at 46%. So if there were shy Trump voters in 2016, the pollsters found them and accounted for them accurately.

There were other reasons, sort of technical reasons I won't go into for why those swing state polls were off. But most pollsters have fixed that. So if this study is right and there are shy Trump voters out there, it suggests that Joe Biden's lead, which is about 7% nationally, that it's lower than that. But we're not going to know until Election Day.

DAN HOWLEY: Rick, does this convention boost Trump in the polls? Most political analysts were not expecting either candidate to get the usual convention bounce, partly because of the weird format of the conventions remotely, and partly because there's so much partisanship. There are just not very many persuadable people left to say oh, the Democratic or the Republican convention was so good, it convinced me. Now I support Trump or now I supported-- now I support Biden.

And I'll say another thing about the Republican Convention. I mean, my expectations were low going in for both conventions. I mean, these were both-- these are infomercials, basically. I thought the Republican Convention was really boring.

And Trump's speech, honestly, I thought was dreadful. It went on for an hour and 20 minutes. That's four times longer than Biden spoke a week earlier when he accepted the nomination.

It didn't finish until almost 11:30 PM Eastern time on Thursday. I mean, who was still watching? I find it hard to believe that anybody except the most die-hard Trump supporter even made it through his speech.

The bigger question is will his threats of a public law and order meltdown if Joe Biden wins, will this convince anybody to vote for Biden-- for Trump rather than Biden? I don't know. I mean, it's what his base wants to hear. But I don't know that it's going to persuade the 5% to 8% of voters who might still be persuadable.