Jason, I'm curious to get your take on uh tariffs a little bit further. Not just of the effect on inflation, where we have seen it inflation not decelerate, right, as much as as we had hoped, but also sort of the lack of effect seemingly on economic growth according to most measures. I mean, yes, some sectors have been hurt earnings-wise, but most corporations have not.

Consumer spending seems to be holding up, for example. What do you make of that?

Look, I think ex ante a plausible forecast was that tariffs would take half a point off growth. Um, growth is very volatile and it's hard to detect, you know, a a change of that magnitude. Um, in part, that's because Trump walked back the most severe of the tariffs. You know, even some of the ones like 50% on Brazil, tons of exceptions to it.

And um the other thing to know is we haven't seen the full effects of the tariffs yet. Um tariffs basically doubled in August. That's just working its way through the economy. Um it's not in any of the numbers that we've seen so far. So, um I expect it already is hurting growth. Uh I don't think there's a reason to expect it's going to be dramatic.

When do you think we should start? I mean, we keep sort of waiting as we've had the tariff back and forth to see the full effect. When do you think it starts to show up more in the data?

I mean, first of all, it's unprecedented, so none of us can be very confident about something we haven't seen happen um before. There's things sort of like it, but they're pretty different. 1930s, 1971. Um, my guess is uh that we're already seeing it. Growth in the first half of the year was 1 and a half percent annual rate. That was a big step down from previously. In part that was because of the immigration issues that we talked about, but tariffs played a role there. Um I certainly think by the end of the year, going into the beginning of next year is when you'll see, you know, more of the tariffs in growth. Uh most of their inflation effect will probably come earlier than that.