Trump, other candidates increasingly rely on ‘invented drama,’ Semafor editor-at-large says
Semafor Founding Editor-at-Large Steve Clemons joins Yahoo Finance Live’s Julie Hyman and Rick Newman to discuss former president Trump’s legal challenges, and how a potential indictment could affect politics and the upcoming elections.
Video Transcript
JULIE HYMAN: Former president Trump says he'll be arrested today. He's called on supporters to protest, but the Manhattan District Attorney's office has yet to announce when or even if they're going to issue charges over alleged hush money payments and the cover-up of them. Let's take a step back to understand the potential charges Trump is facing.
At the center of this, a $130,000 payment that Trump's former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, made to adult film actor Stormy Daniels in 2016. The payment was made in exchange for Daniels' silence about an alleged affair with the former president. To be clear, the hush money payments themselves don't seem to be illegal, but prosecutors allege that when Trump's company paid Cohen back, those payments were wrongly labeled "legal fees."
Misclassifying offenses-- expenses is illegal, excuse me, in New York State. Trump has denied the affair with Daniels, and he calls the Manhattan DA's investigation "a witch hunt." All of this as Trump seeks the 2024 Republican nomination for president. I'm getting major flashback vibes here.
Joining us to discuss what a possible indictment could mean for the former president is Steve Clemons, founding editor at large of Semafor, and Yahoo Finance's own Rick Newman. Steve, let's start with you here. First of all, the president says he could be indicted as soon as today. It seems like other reporting is indicating it would be tomorrow at the earliest. Are we falling into the Trump trap once again?
STEVE CLEMONS: Maybe just a little bit, but you got to give him credit for taking over the news cycle, for creating a dividing line for other GOP pretenders to the throne who would love to run for president, forcing them to say whether they're on his side or the side of New York's district attorney. And so anticipating that some form of legal action might take place and that he might be in legal peril, you know, Trump grabbed the headlines and created real political peril for his opponents and created sympathy for himself nationally, regardless of whether it is true, which we now know is probably not likely true that he would be arrested today. But that may come later in the week.
RICK NEWMAN: What do I think?
JULIE HYMAN: Yeah.
RICK NEWMAN: Well, Trump looks like-- it looks like he's actually going to be wrong about the timing. It looks as if it's not going to happen today. So in one sense, he stole his own thunder by getting the date wrong. Let's say this does come later in the week. It's a-- I mean, it's a huge political story because it would be the first time prosecutors have ever indicted a president or a former president.
I think maybe the political analysis here is a little bit overblown, believe it or not. You-- as you were reading this, giving the introduction, the background of this case, Julie, everybody who follows President Trump is familiar with this. There's really nothing new about it. So political analysts are very busy trying to figure out, does this help Trump? Does it hurt Trump? I think it's very likely to be a yawner to a lot of voters, believe it or not.
It will be very interesting once it actually gets to the point of a trial if it-- assuming it gets to that point. And then does he actually get convicted? It will be quite salacious that Trump would have to testify under oath. I mean, that would be quite interesting. But until we get to that point, I feel like most voters are just like, what's new about this? The thing that is new is that it's a charge being resurfaced that is actually going to result, apparently, in a criminal charge. But there's a lot more to come that I think is going to be bigger than this.
BRAD SMITH: Steve, Trump and the name itself, the brand, whatever you want to call it, hasn't necessarily been successful in recent elections, whether it be the midterm, whether it be runoffs, or even the general election back in 2020. And so all of that considered, does this even make a dent in how his own party that he's looking to re-establish the attention or at least the confidence of, of how they view him?
STEVE CLEMONS: Well, look, I am one who does not believe in underestimating former president Trump. So that's one element. I think the second element is far more people have sympathy with him potentially being a victim of a politically driven prosecution than do actually support President Trump. So the net add for him by this drama is greater for him at this moment. And that could give him a boost.
And as John Bolton said on CNN this weekend, John Bolton said, hey, we have to have one rule of law for everyone. But if the DA has any wobbliness in his case, in this case-- and many people have looked at it and said it's a very hard case to prosecute-- then Bolton has said they've likely just elected Donald Trump back to the presidency. I wouldn't go that far, but it certainly creates the conditions where Trump thrives being the victim. And that gives him a net bump and could bring him back into our daily lives.
RICK NEWMAN: So, Steve, I'm skeptical of that. And I want to ask you who those voters might be. So the pro-crime Republicans are already Trump voters. That's Trump's base, and they'll stick with him. I mean, is it plausible that Trump would actually convert voters who are on the fence? You know, let's say they're on the fence. Maybe they were prior Trump voters. They said, no, I'm sick of the guy, January 6. He's just descended into this weird conspiracy land. Like, what kind of voter who would not have voted for Trump before might actually vote for him because he got indicted?
STEVE CLEMONS: It's a great point, Rick. But what I see out there right now is a regional divide of people not liking the New York system versus what may play in the South-- it may solidify him in the South. And it creates a problem for those people who want to challenge Trump because as you know, within the party, Trump is polling at about 30%. He gets 30% everywhere in the Republican Party. Nobody else comes close to that, not Rick DeSantis, not Nikki Haley, not Mike Pence.
And so as they kind of look at that, now he's created a challenge where he's said to them, you either need to decide you're with me in this legal challenge from New York, which is a political witch hunt, again, or you're against me. And that runs the risk of diminishing there. So it's not the question of net value added then.
It's a question of in 15 rounds, who's there with him? And is this an opportunity yet again for him to knock out and diminish others, even though I agree with you. It's very hard to see how he adds up upon where he is. But if he's the flavor of ice cream that they get at the end of the day in the primary process because of the use of these sorts of moments, then I think he's stronger than you may think he is.
RICK NEWMAN: So one point I think is worth making here, is the 2024 election on the Republican side is going to be only about Donald Trump and all the possible crimes he may have committed? Do Republicans care about anything else? Do they care about health care? Do they care about immigration? Do they care about crime? Or is this-- I mean, I just think this is just a gigantic--
STEVE CLEMONS: I hope they would, but--
RICK NEWMAN: Go ahead. Go ahead, Steve.
STEVE CLEMONS: --we've seen a lot. We've seen a lot of vapid campaigning. You know, I'm all for issues. You and I both are. And I think I don't want to demean anyone in any political party, but those--
JULIE HYMAN: Why not?
STEVE CLEMONS: --I do think at the end of the day, Republican voters--
JULIE HYMAN: [INAUDIBLE]
STEVE CLEMONS: --you know-- what's that?
JULIE HYMAN: I just said, why wouldn't you want to demean anyone in any political party? Sorry.
STEVE CLEMONS: Well, because basically, you've got to say, hey, there are issues, and then there are character issues. And what we see is less and less focus on issues like debt, like crime, like the economy, like global trade, all of the issues that Rick may be-- and the state of education in America and honor. And those do matter to a substantial portion of the electorate, but there's also this performative insanity that we see that more and more candidates are picking up to drive their candidacies that has nothing to do with issues and has other to do with invented drama, like maybe this moment. And I have to say, Donald Trump is the best at it.
JULIE HYMAN: There's one name I don't think we've even mentioned thus far in this conversation. And that's Joe Biden, the guy who if, indeed, you're correct and Trump gets enough noise around him to get the nomination again, the conversation on the other side is really centered around one person. And it's early, Steve, but, like, does that person have a chance if we have another match-up? He said he does.
STEVE CLEMONS: Look, I think that Joe Biden has a lot of strengths. They've accomplished a lot, even in the last Congress. They've brought and marshalled a lot of things. For some reason, not a lot of it has seeped through to the American public where they realize it. I think it's going to be a neck and neck race. I think Joe Biden has enormous strengths if he's able to pull it out. But I think there are substantial doubts in Biden as well and a lot of fronts that I don't want to get into, but I do think that it's not a slam dunk for Biden if it's a match-up between Donald Trump and Joe Biden again.
RICK NEWMAN: Biden was not a superhero candidate in 2020. He did win. Why did he win? Because he offered to bring normalcy back to the country. So look at everything we're talking about here. Let's say this is how this setup ends up in 2024. Biden is running the country. He's signing laws. He's, I would hope, helping Ukraine defeat Russia in that war and kind of managing things, and here comes the Trump chaos machine.
So I mean, this can only seemingly help Biden. I do not think he's going to be a strong candidate in 2024, but he overperformed in 2020 and, in large part, because Trump helped him. I mean, people did vote against Trump to help Biden get elected, and that could be the same thing that happens again in '24.
JULIE HYMAN: I don't know. Shrug is my prognostication on all of this. Steve, we've got to leave it there. Rick, we've got to leave it there. Steve Clemons, Semafor founding editor at large.
STEVE CLEMONS: Thanks so much.
JULIE HYMAN: Thank you. This was fun, and also our Rick Newman.
