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This week in Trumponomics

As stimulus uncertainty and 2020 election talks continue to dictate the market, investors are awaiting clarity within the coming weeks to see if more layoffs are coming or if at-risk industries will be given aid from the government. Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman joins The Final Round to break down why this weeks Trumpometer reading is mediocre.

Video Transcript

SEANA SMITH: Welcome back to "The Final Round." Let's get to this week's Trumponomics report. The economic recovery is certainly a key issue for voters this year. With just 3 and 1/2 weeks until the election, the pressure is on both President Trump and also on Joe Biden to prove that they are the right pick for the economic recovery.

Goldman Sachs out with a report this week declaring that actually a Biden win and a Democratic sweep in November could be a good thing for the economy. Rick, this is so interesting because we know President Trump loves to brag about the performance of the stock market when it's doing well.

He loves to brag about where we are before COVID and in terms of the US economy. But with Wall Street getting a little bit more comfortable, I guess you can say, with the Biden win, how worrisome is this for President Trump?

RICK NEWMAN: Bad news for him, but I think it might be good news for investors and maybe good news for the rest of us. So Wall Street is basically fine with the Joe Biden presidency at this point. And they are also fine with the prospect of Biden winning the White House and Democrats taking the Senate. And that gets back to that Goldman Sachs note.

You pointed out Goldman Sachs obviously a weathervane for Wall Street. They're saying, hey, this could end up being better for the economy than the status quo. I've seen two other data points that convince me markets are fine with a Biden presidency at this point.

First, I've counted at least four analysts and forecasting firms that have analyzed the Biden economic plan and the Trump plan and said, you know, the economy would actually do a little bit better if Biden were able to enact his plan. Trump doesn't really have a detailed plan, so you can't do that kind of analysis for his ideas.

And then the other thing is just what the market itself has been doing as Biden's lead has been widening. Biden's almost up to a 10-point lead in the aggregate of polls at this point. And if Wall Street were worried about a Biden presidency, we'd see the stock market quaking.

And in fact, we're seeing the opposite. We've seen a nice rally since the bottom on September 23rd. The S&P 500 is up about 7% since then. So the stock market is just not worried about a Biden presidency. And I think we're getting close enough that if it were worried, we would be seeing it right now.

So the Trumpometer, which might end up becoming the Bidenometer at some point, this week, it reads mediocre. That's fancy artwork, isn't it? And that is our third highest score. And that's not necessarily because this week's developments are good for President Trump. But they might be pretty good for the rest of us in the near-- let's call it the medium term.

As for all the stimulus we've been talking about, I have stimulus fatigue. Everybody who has stimulus fatigue, raise your hand. That should be everybody. I don't think we're going to get much, if anything, by election day. But we could get something after election day. So the closer we get to election day, the less it matters.

SEANA SMITH: Well, Rick, on that note there about stimulus, I'm just curious of what you make of the president's strategy here, just because we know that he's behind in the polls, like you were just saying. We know that the economic recovery is so critical when it comes to this election.

Yet, it seems like what he's doing, you could characterize it as being pretty reckless, the fact that he did tweet that he wanted the talks to be called off now. Of course, he's saying that he's pushing for a more comprehensive deal. But you have to question just what the strategy is behind what he's been doing this week.

RICK NEWMAN: Incoherence? I mean, that's literally what it is. I mean, within the space of three days, he said he wasn't going to negotiate any further, no more stimulus talks. It's over until after the election. And then three days later, he actually raised his offer.

So I think Trump is doing, honestly, the same thing Nancy Pelosi is doing, which is posturing. Both sides want to seem like they're trying to get this done.

Jess pointed this out earlier. We've been saying it all week. You cannot get a deal done if Senate Republicans don't sign up to it. And I think Mitch McConnell has been pretty transparent on this, basically saying the Senate has one job until Election Day, and that's get the Supreme Court justice confirmed.

And there's just not going to be room. And there's no appetite for taking up stimulus bill until after the election. For that reason, I don't think it matters if Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi agree on literally every single point because the Senate Republicans are just not going to pass it.