Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blikre spoke with Computer Trading Corp. President Peter Borish about the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and trading stocks.
- So the quick and dirty from my perspective-- and remember, I'm sort of a global macro trader, but I always defined that the right to change my mind when it comes to a position begins as soon as I put my tongue back in my mouth. So where I am today is that, first of all, whether the Fed raises 50 or 75 basis points, to me, is not that relevant.
What is relevant is how markets react to that. And why many are worried about inflation, and I think we can get into this-- my concern is that the US, with this monetary policy, is embarking on a tremendously fraught path of importing deflation. And we're seeing that with regard to the record move in the dollar.
So usually, a really, really strong home currency is not so great for domestic equity markets. So we're on a teetering. If we hold these levels 3,880, the lows from last night in the futures markets-- we might have a bounce. But I think between now, certainly to September expiration, which is only eight days away, and further into October expiration, I think the markets will be under pressure, which is interesting, because around October expiration is when the next cycle of tech earnings come out.
We bottomed in July on July expiration as tech started to come out. That's going to really tell us some momentum for the rest of the year. Are they better than expected or is the rising dollar, the deflationary pressures, rising interest rates hurting those earnings, in which case we could be a little bit more like '18, where we're down deep into the fourth quarter.