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Yellen Sworn In as Treasury Secretary by Kamala Harris

Jan.26 -- Vice President Kamala Harris swears in Janet Yellen as the first female U.S. Treasury secretary.

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  • The Bottom Is in for These 3 Stocks? Analysts Say ‘Buy’

    Never say that one person makes no difference. This past Thursday, stocks tumbled, bonds surged, and investors started taking inflationary risks seriously – all because one guy said what he thinks. Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, held a press conference at which he gave both the good and the bad. He stated, again, his belief that the COVID vaccination program will allow a full reopening of the economy, and that we’ll see a resurgence in the job market. That’s the good news. The bad news, we’ll also likely see consumer prices go up in the short term – inflation. And when inflation starts rising, so do interest rates – and that’s when stocks typically slide. We’re not there yet, but the specter of it was enough this past week to put serious pressure on the stock markets. However, as the market retreat has pushed many stocks to rock-bottom prices, several Wall Street analysts believe that now may be the time to buy in. These analysts have identified three tickers whose current share prices land close to their 52-week lows. Noting that each is set to take back off on an upward trajectory, the analysts see an attractive entry point. Not to mention each has earned a Moderate or Strong Buy consensus rating, according to TipRanks database. Alteryx (AYX) We’ll start with Alteryx, an analytic software company based in California that takes advantage of the great changes brought by the information age. Data has become a commodity and an asset, and more than ever, companies now need the ability to collect, collate, sort, and analyze reams of raw information. This is exactly what Alteryx’s products allow, and the company has built on that need. In Q4, the company reported net income of 32 cents per share on $160.5 million in total revenues, beating consensus estimates. The company reported good news on the liquidity front, too, with $1 billion in cash available as of Dec 31, up 2.5% the prior year. In Q4, operating cash flow reached $58.5 million, crushing the year-before figure of $20.7 million. However, investors were wary of the lower-than-expected guidance. The company forecasted a range of between $104 million to $107 million in revenue, compared to $119 million analysts had expected. The stock tumbled 16% after the report. That was magnified by the general market turndown at the same time. Overall, AYX is down ~46% over the past 52 months. Yet, the recent sell-off could be an opportunity as the business remains sound amid these challenging times, according to 5-star analyst Daniel Ives, of Wedbush. “We still believe the company is well positioned to capture market share in the nearly ~$50B analytics, business intelligence, and data preparation market with its code-friendly end-to-end data prep and analytics platform once pandemic pressures subside…. The revenue beat was due to a product mix that tilted towards upfront revenue recognition, an improvement in churn rates and an improvement in customer spending trends," Ives opined. Ives’ comments back his Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating, and his $150 price target implies a one-year upside of 89% for the stock. (To watch Ives’ track record, click here) Overall, the 13 analyst recent reviews on Alteryx, breaking down to 10 Buys and 3 Holds, give the stock a Strong Buy analyst consensus rating. Shares are selling for $79.25 and have an average price target of $150.45. (See AYX stock analysis on TipRanks) Root, Inc. (ROOT) Switching over to the insurance sector, we’ll look at Root. This insurance company interacts with customers through its app, acting more like a tech company than a car insurance provider. But it works because the way customers interact with businesses is changing. Root also uses data analytics to set rates for customers, basing fees and premiums on measurable and measured metrics of how a customer actually drives. It’s a personalized version of car insurance, fit for the digital age. Root has also been expanding its model to the renters insurance market. Root has been trading publicly for just 4 months; the company IPO'd back in October, and it’s currently down 50% since it hit the markets. In its Q4 and Full-year 2020 results, Root showed solid gains in direct premiums, although the company still reports a net loss. For the quarter, the direct earnings premiums rose 30% year-over-year to $155 million. For all of 2020, that metric gained 71% to reach $605 million. The full-year net loss was $14.2 million. Truist's 5-star analyst Youssef Squali covers Root, and he sees the company maneuvering to preserve a favorable outlook this year and next. “ROOT's mgt continues to refine its growth strategy two quarters post IPO, and 4Q20 results/2021 outlook reflects such a process... They believe their stepped-up marketing investment should lead to accelerating policy count growth as the year progresses and provide a substantial tailwind heading into 2022. To us, this seems part of a deliberate strategy to marginally shift the balance between topline growth and profitability slightly more in favor of the latter,” Squali noted. Squali’s rating on the stock is a Buy, and his $24 price target suggests a 95% upside in the months ahead. (To watch Squali’s track record, click here) Shares in Root are selling for $12.30 each, and the average target of $22 indicates a possible upside of ~79% by year’s end. There are 5 reviews on record, including 3 to Buy and 2 to Hold, making the analyst consensus a Moderate Buy. (See ROOT stock analysis on TipRanks) Arco Platform, Ltd. (ARCE) The shift to online and remote work hasn’t just impacted the workplace. Around the world, schools and students have also had to adapt. Arco Platform is a Brazilian educational company offering content, technology, supplemental programs, and specialized services to school clients in Brazil. The company boasts over 5,400 schools on its client list, with programs and products in classrooms from kindergarten through high school – and over 405,000 students using Arco Platform learning tools. Arco will report 4Q20 and full year 2020 results later this month – but a look at the company’s November Q3 release is instructive. The company described 2020 as a “testament to the resilience of our business.” By the numbers, Arco reported strong revenue gains in 2020 – no surprise, considering the move to remote learning. Quarterly revenue of 208.7 million Brazilian reals (US$36.66 million) was up 196% year-over-year, while the top line for the first 9 months of the year, at 705.2 million reals (US$123.85 million) was up 117% yoy. Earnings for educational companies can vary through the school year, depending on the school vacation schedule. The third quarter is typically Arco’s worst of the year, with a net loss – and 2020 was no exception. But, the Q3 net loss was only 9 US cents per share – a huge improvement from the 53-cent loss reported in 3Q19. Mr. Market chopped off 38% of the company’s stock price over the past 12 months. One analyst, however, thinks this lower stock price could offer new investors an opportunity to get into ARCE on the cheap. Credit Suisse's Daniel Federle rates ARCE an Outperform (i.e. Buy) along with a $55 price target. This figure implies a 12-month upside potential of ~67%. (To watch Federle’s track record, click here) Federle is confident that the company is positioned for the next leg of growth, noting: "[The] company is structurally solid and moving in the right direction and... any eventual weak operating data point is macro related rather than any issue related to the company. We continue with the view that growth will return to its regular trajectory once COVID effects dissipate.” Turning to expansionary plans, Federle noted, “Arco mentioned that it is within their plans to launch a product focused on the B2C market, likely already in 2021. The product will be focused on offering courses (e.g. test preps) directly to students. It is important to note that this product will not be a substitute for learning systems, rather a complement. Potential success obtained in the B2C market is an upside risk to our estimates.” There are only two reviews on record for Arco, although both of them are Buys, making the analyst consensus here a Moderate Buy. Shares are trading for $33.73 and have an average price target of $51, which suggests a 51% upside from that level. (See ARCE stock analysis on TipRanks) To find good ideas for beaten-down stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

  • Elon Musk Loses $27 Billion as Historic Wealth Gains Unravel

    (Bloomberg) -- Elon Musk set records last year for one of the fastest streaks of wealth accumulation in history. The reversal is underway, and it’s steep.The Tesla Inc. chief executive officer lost $27 billion since Monday as shares of the automaker tumbled in the selloff of tech stocks. His $156.9 billion net worth still places him No. 2 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, but he’s now almost $20 billion behind Jeff Bezos, who he topped just last week as world’s richest person.Musk’s tumble only underscores the hard-to-fathom velocity of his ascent. Tesla shares soared 743% in 2020, boosting the value of his stake and unlocking billions of dollars in options through his historic “moonshot” compensation package.His gains accelerated into the new year. In January, he unseated Bezos as the world’s richest person. Musk’s fortune peaked later that month at $210 billion, according to the index, a ranking of the world’s 500 wealthiest people.Consistent quarterly profits, the election of President Joe Biden with his embrace of clean technologies and enthusiasm from retail investors fueled the company’s rise, but for some, its swelling valuation was emblematic of an unsustainable frothiness in tech. The Nasdaq 100 Index fell for the third straight week on Friday, its longest streak of declines since September.Bitcoin InvestmentMusk’s fortune hasn’t been solely subject to the forces buffeting the tech industry. His net worth has risen and slumped recently in tandem with the price of Bitcoin. Tesla disclosed last month it had added $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency to its balance sheet. Musk’s fortune took a $15 billion hit two weeks later after he mused on twitter that the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies “do seem high.”Extreme volatility has roiled many of the world’s biggest fortunes this year. Asia’s once-richest person, Chinese bottled-water tycoon Zhong Shanshan, relinquished the title to Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani last month after losing more than $22 billion in a matter of days.Read more: Ambani Again Richest Asian as China’s Zhong Down $22 BillionQuicken Loans Inc. Chairman Dan Gilbert’s net worth surged by $25 billion on Monday after his mortgage lender Rocket Cos. was said to be the next target of Reddit day traders. His fortune has since fallen by almost $24 billion. Alphabet Inc. co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page are among the biggest gainers on the index this year. They’ve each added more than $13 billion to their fortunes since Jan. 1.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Biggest Players in the Short-Selling Game Are Getting a Pass

    (Bloomberg) -- It’s in the air again, on Reddit, in Congress, in the C-suite: Hedge funds that get rich off short-selling are the enemy. The odd thing is, the biggest players in the game are getting a pass.Those would be the asset managers, pension plans and sovereign wealth funds that provide the vast majority of securities used to take bearish positions. Without the likes of BlackRock Inc. and State Street Corp., the California Public Employees’ Retirement System and the Kuwait Investment Authority filling such an elemental role, investors such as Gabe Plotkin, whose Melvin Capital Management became a piñata for day traders in the GameStop Corp. saga, wouldn’t have shares to sell short.“Anytime we short a stock, we locate a borrow,” Plotkin said Feb. 18 at the House Financial Services Committee hearing on the GameStop short squeeze.There’s plenty to choose from. As of mid-2020, some $24 trillion of stocks and bonds were available for such borrowing, with $1.2 trillion in shares -- equal to a third of all hedge-fund assets -- actually out on loan, according to the International Securities Lending Association.It’s a situation that on the surface defies logic. Given the popular belief that short sellers create unjustified losses in some stocks, why would shareholders want to supply the ammunition for attacks against their investments? The explanation is fairly straight forward: By loaning out securities for a small fee plus interest, they can generate extra income that boosts returns. That’s key in an industry where fund managers are paid to beat benchmarks and especially valuable in a world of low yields.The trade-off is simple: For investors with large, diversified portfolios, a single stock plummeting under the weight of a short-selling campaign has little impact over the long run. And in the nearer term, the greater the number of aggregate bets against a stock -- the so-called short interest -- the higher the fee a lender can charge.In the case of GameStop, short interest was unusually high and shares on loan were generating an annualized return of 25% to 30%, Ken Griffin testified at the Feb. 18 hearing. Griffin operates a market maker, Citadel Securities, as well as Citadel, one of the world’s largest hedge funds.“Securities lending is a way for long holders to generate additional alpha,” said Nancy Allen of DataLend, which compiles data on securities financing. “Originally, it was a way to cover costs, but over the last 10 to 15 years it’s become an investment function.”Not everyone is comfortable with the inherent conflict. In December 2019, Japan’s $1.6 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund stopped lending its international stock holdings to short sellers, calling the practice inconsistent with its responsibilities as a fiduciary. At the time, the decision cost GPIF about $100 million a year in lost revenue.The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has regulated short-selling since the 1930s and polices the market for abuses such as naked shorting, which involves taking a short position without borrowing shares. Proponents of legal shorting argue that its use enhances liquidity, improves pricing and serves a critical role as a bulwark against fraud and hype.Chief executives, whose pay packages often depend on share performance, routinely decry short sellers as vultures. More recently, shorting has come under fire in the emotionally charged banter on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum. Some speculators ran up the prices of GameStop, AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and other meme stocks in January to punish the hedge funds that bet against them, and they delighted when the rampant buying led to bruising losses at Melvin, Maplelane Capital and Citron Research.Many of the key actors in the GameStop frenzy testified at the Feb. 18 hearing. Plotkin was grilled by committee members over Melvin’s short position. Citadel’s Griffin and others faced broader questions about short-selling. Yet no one asked about the supply of borrowed shares and there were no witnesses called from the securities-lending industry.There’s a symbiotic relationship between hedge funds and the prime-brokerage units of Wall Street firms, much of it built on securities lending. Prime brokers act as intermediaries, sourcing stocks and bonds for borrowers who want to short them and facilitate the trades. According to DataLend, securities lending generated $2.9 billion of broker-to-broker revenue in 2020, almost the same as in 2019.Demand for short positions was already expected to drop as stock prices surged to all-time highs. Now, with the threat of retribution from the Reddit crowd, it may weaken even further. Griffin said he has “no doubt” there’ll be less short-selling as a consequence of the GameStop squeeze.“I think the whole industry will have to adapt,” Plotkin said at the hearing. “I don’t think investors like myself want to be susceptible to these types of dynamics.”This could not only threaten the dealers who broker stock lending but also the holders who supply the securities and share in the revenue. They reaped $7.7 billion globally in 2020, down from a record of almost $10 billion in 2018, according to DataLend. Lending fees increased by 4.2% on a year-over-year basis in February after the GameStop onslaught, DataLend says.While securities lending accounted for $652 million, or just 4%, of BlackRock’s revenue in the fourth quarter of 2020, there’s little cost involved and the risks are low because borrowers have to put up collateral that equals or exceeds the value of the loan. At both BlackRock and State Street Corp., the second-largest custody bank, the value of securities on loan as of Dec. 31 jumped at least 20% from a year earlier, to $352 billion and $441 billion, respectively.“Every little bit counts with indexes,” said John Rekenthaler, vice president of research at Morningstar. “You’re scraping nickels off the street, but there’s a whole lot of nickels.”Others could take a hit, too. Just as Robinhood Markets is able to offer zero-commission trades by selling its order flow to Citadel and other market makers, asset managers typically pass on some of their securities-lending revenue as a type of client rebate.“It’s very important to remember that institutional investors earn substantial returns from participating in the securities-lending market,” Citadel’s Griffin said at the GameStop hearing. “That accrues to the benefit of pension plans, of ETFs, of other pools of institutional lending that participate in the securities lending market.”(Adds data on lending fees after the short-interest chart.)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Why Cathie Wood Is Bullish On DraftKings

    Ark Funds CEO and Founder Cathie Wood joined Benzinga’s “Raz Report” this week and discussed the history of Ark Funds. Wood also shared some of the reasons why Ark Funds owns several positions, including in DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ: DKNG). Wood on DraftKings: Wood told Benzinga that DraftKings is becoming accepted as a platform for sports betting as the public grows more comfortable with the activity. “We do think sports betting is losing its taint,” Wood said. The fund manager sees more states turning toward legalizing sports betting, especially as many face huge deficits, Wood said. Wood used New Jersey as an example of the success states can have. The state is a mature market and DraftKings’ revenue was up 100% in the state. “New Jersey was very telling to us," she said. Ark Funds: DraftKings was added to two different Ark Funds beginning in February. Ark Next Generation Internet ETF (NYSE: ARKW) owns around 1.4 milion shares of DraftKings worth $88.1 million. Ark Fintech Innovation ETF (NYSE: ARKF) owns around 546,000 shares of DraftKings worth $33.8 million. DraftKings represents around 1.2% and 0.8% of ARKW and ARKF, respectively. Price Action: Shares of DraftKings finished the week down 6.24% at $59.52. Related Link: DraftKings And Dish Network Partner On Sports Betting, TV Integration See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from BenzingaFuboTV Shares Pop On Caesars Partnership, Access To Additional States For Sports BettingHorizon Acquisition Corp SPAC Jumps 20% On Potential Sportradar Merger© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  • Suze Orman: Something's ‘radically wrong’ if you’re getting a tax refund

    Personal finance guru Suze Orman said the receipt of a tax refund indicates "something's radically wrong," since the money returned to filers could otherwise have accrued value over the period it stood in the government's possession.

  • Day-trading Reddit readers nearly crashed the stock market. Now they’ve been packaged into a new ETF.

    An ETF that's backed in part by Dave Portnoy, self-proclaimed head of the hordes of retail investors who have upended markets in recent weeks, raises questions about market manipulation.

  • ARK’s Cathie Wood Disrupted Investment Management. She’s Not Done Yet.

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  • JPMorgan Sends Its Private Clients a Primer on Crypto

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  • OPEC Stuns By Opting Not To Raise Output; Was Diesel A Reason?

    Coverage of the OPEC+ group's decision Thursday to not increase crude production even after a more than $45 increase in prices since April inevitably featured one of two words: "shocking" or "stunning." Diesel markets may have played a role in the path that OPEC took. Expectations going into the meeting were that OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, would decide along with the OPEC+ group to put more barrels onto the market. The most closely watched models on global supply and demand all show demand outstripping supply now, a situation that all agreed was necessary to bring global crude inventories down to a more normal level. The question was how far it needed to go. Singapore-based analyst Vandana Hari, writing in VandaInsights, said OPEC+ "had been widely expected to boost supply by 1.0-1.5 million b/d." Instead, the number was zero. The supply/demand models show the current imbalance blowing out by the third quarter of the year, which begins in less than three months. Since any restoration of reduced production wouldn't start until April anyway, getting ready for that third quarter would need to begin in the second quarter to ramp up in time to put more barrels onto the market. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, Amrita Sen, the chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, said of the decision that "there is some risk of overtightening. "Saudi Arabia needs to start talking about how they will bring back the barrels in the third quarter," she said. The decision to do nothing caught oil markets by surprise. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.55/barrel Thursday, a gain of 2.56%, to settle at $63.83. The lowest settlement for WTI since the pandemic began was $11.57/b on April 21, meaning that the Thursday price, which is the post-pandemic high, marks an increase of more than 550%. (The widely reported negative price on WTI from April was not a settlement price but recorded in intraday trades.) Not only is Thursday's settlement a post-pandemic high, it is the highest settlement since April 25, 2019. The bull market continued apace on Friday. At 6:15 a.m., WTI was up another $1.44 to $65.27/b. What role did diesel play in the decision? In an article published in S&P Global Platts, editor Paul Hickin said Saudi Arabia may have been looking at some data on diesel inventories to help propel its decision. Hickin referred to "a pool of excess diesel" as being a reason that "should keep oil watchers on high alert." Citing data from Platts Analytics, Hickin wrote that "global diesel inventories are back close to the highs reached last spring and summer as COVID-19 lockdowns persist." He also noted data from Insights Global that inventories of diesel and gasoil — a middle distillate like diesel — are approximately 13% more than a year ago. The picture in the U.S. is more complicated. A large factor hanging over the diesel market in the U.S. is the status of the Texas refining sector, which shut down huge amounts of operations during the mid-February cold snap. The weekly statistical report from the Energy Information Administration released Wednesday reported that U.S. refinery production of ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) fell last week to a level not seen since early 2010. The ULSD output of 2.748 million b/d was about 26% less than it was the last full week before the deep freeze. In the geographic sector known as PADD 3, which includes the Gulf Coast, the drop in ULSD output over the last two weeks exceeded 44%. But even with inventories of ULSD in the U.S. down more than 10% since where they were two weeks ago, they are still not far off the five-year average of stocks for the end of February. Another indicator of the level of inventories is the relationship of ULSD prices down the calendar. In a balanced market, the price for the first month delivery of ULSD will be the lowest along the curve, with prices out on the curve rising to reflect the cost of storage and the time value of money. That is a structure known as contango. The inverse is backwardation, in which the front month is the most expensive because in a tight market, it is the most desirable barrel. ULSD flipped into backwardation at the start of February, after spending the entire pandemic in an often deep contango as inventories soared over the spring and summer. But even though there is backwardation in the diesel market on the CME commodity exchange, the 12-month curve hasn't moved significantly in recent weeks, a signal that inventories are not tightening further. That may seem academic to diesel buyers who, based on the weekly Department of Energy/EIA average retail diesel price, are paying $3.072/g in the U.S. That is 17 consecutive weeks of increases in that price, which is now at its highest level since the start of 2020. The 17 weeks is also a record in the history of the data series that goes back to 1994. Even if inventories of diesel restrained OPEC from putting more oil onto the market, that doesn't mean diesel is not riding higher on the back of the surge in markets. At approximately 6:45 a.m. Eastern time Friday, the price of ULSD on the CME was up 4 cents per gallon to $1.9360/g, a gain of 2.11%. It is notable that the Friday increase for ULSD percentage-wise was running behind that of crude. In the last several weeks, the spread between diesel and Brent crude on CME has fluctuated in a narrow band, suggesting no particular strength or weakness in diesel relative to crude. The one piece of good news for diesel buyers is that the market for diesel in Houston has not soared beyond the rest of the world. A tight market created by the refinery outages was likely to show up first in the spot market for diesel traded in Houston and then rapidly make its way into wholesale prices. But the wholesale rack price for ULSD in Houston, according to the SONAR ULSDR.HOU data series, after peaking at $2.077/g on Feb. 26, declined to $2.016/g on Thursday. That is a sign that there is a return to normalcy in the market and that further reports on Gulf Coast production may be positive. (By Friday, it had rebounded to near that February 26 level, but that was on the back of the increase in the CME ULSD price.) More articles by John Kingston Great commodity price surge not just about oil and may be impacting trucking Drilling Deep: battery technology racing ahead; so is the price of diesel Reflecting strong trucking market, TA sold huge amounts of diesel in Q4 2020 See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from BenzingaMedically Necessary: FDA Way Behind On Facility InspectionsAir Cargo 2021: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  • Investors may have a ‘buy’ signal, as these big tech stocks have dropped up to 32% in only three weeks

    Now might be "a golden opportunity" to own the "secular tech winners" for the next 12 to 18 months, according to Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives.

  • China’s Plan for Digital Yuan Imperils Bitcoin’s Biggest Markets

    (Bloomberg) -- Trouble may be brewing in China for Bitcoin’s raucous and divisive rally as the nation pushes ahead with a world-leading effort to create a digital version of its currency.That’s because the eventual rollout of the virtual yuan could roil cryptocurrency markets if Chinese officials tighten regulations at the same time, according to Phillip Gillespie, chief executive of crypto market maker and liquidity provider B2C2 Japan, which mainly works with institutional investors.“Once a digital yuan is introduced, that’s going to be one of the biggest risks in crypto,” Gillespie, who previously worked in currency markets for Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in an interview. “Panic selling” is possible if the new rules end up sucking liquidity from trading platforms for digital coins, he said.Central banks’ power to issue virtual money and proscribe rivals is one of the key risks for the crypto sector. Chinese citizens are already banned from converting yuan to tokens but the practice continues under the table using Tether, a digital coin that claims a stable value pegged to the dollar. The money parked in Tether then gets routed to Bitcoin and other tokens.Tokyo-based Gillespie sees potential for an outright ban on Tether, which could raise the stakes for anyone minded to continue using it.A draft People’s Bank of China law setting the stage for a virtual yuan includes a provision prohibiting individuals and entities from making and selling tokens. In recent days, China’s Inner Mongolia banned the power-hungry practice of cryptocurrency mining.Representatives of the People’s Bank of China didn’t reply to a fax seeking comment on the prospect of regulatory changes. While there’s no launch date yet, the PBOC is likely to be the first major central bank to issue a virtual currency after years of work on the project.Tether officials have downplayed the concern, saying that central bank digital currencies won’t mean the end of stablecoins.“Tether’s success has provided a blueprint for how a CBDC could work,” said Paolo Ardoino, chief technology officer for Tether and Bitfinex, an affiliated exchange. “Furthermore, CBDC’s are unlikely to be available on public blockchains such as Ethereum or Bitcoin. This last mile may be left to privately-issued stablecoins.”Still, Gillespie points out that Tether is “this massive amount of fuel for Bitcoin purchases” and few people realize the potential for disruption. A “tremendous amount of liquidity” is coming from exchanges tapping Chinese demand, he added.Tether QuestionsBitcoin surged fivefold in the past year and hit a record above $58,000 last month before dropping back about $10,000. The rally has split opinion, with some arguing a new asset class is emerging and others seeing pure gambling by retail investors and speculative pros in the Wild West of finance.Tether is an equally controversial token deep in the plumbing of the nascent cryptocurrency market. Traders use it to park money as they shift from virtual to fiat cash.More than $18 billion of Tether moved overseas from East Asian addresses over a one-year period, including spikes suggesting Chinese origin, according to an August report from Chainalysis, which analyzes the blockchain network technology underlying tokens. The report indicated citizens may be using Tether to dodge rules that limit capital transfers abroad.Questions about Tether continue to swirl. The companies behind it were banned from doing business in New York last month as part of a settlement with state officials who found that they hid losses and lied about reserves.‘Liquidity Shock’A recent report from JPMorgan Chase & Co. said there’d likely be “a severe liquidity shock to the broader cryptocurrency market” if issues arose that affected the “willingness or ability of both domestic and foreign investors to use Tether.”“All the volume goes through Tether,” said Todd Morakis, co-founder of digital-finance product and service provider JST Capital. “As regulators become more and more restrictive on stablecoins, that could be very negative for the market because that could mean less liquidity.”B2C2 Japan’s Gillespie said Tether is “such a risky asset” and a “massive liquidity shock” is possible if China does ban it. “What would happen is there’s going to be massive panic selling,” he said.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Bond Traders Go All-In on U.S. Treasury Market’s Big Short Bet

    (Bloomberg) -- It’s not just in meme stocks that the fate of short sellers is a key theme. Short bets are increasingly in vogue in the $21 trillion Treasuries market, with crucial implications across asset classes.The benchmark 10-year yield reached 1.62% Friday -- the highest since February 2020 -- before dip buying from foreign investors emerged. Stronger-than-expected job creation and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s seeming lack of concern, for now, with leaping long-term borrowing costs have emboldened traders. In one telltale sign of which way they’re leaning, demand to borrow 10-year notes in the repurchase-agreement market is so great that rates have gone negative, likely part of a move to short the maturity.The trifecta of more fiscal stimulus ahead, ultra-easy monetary policy and an accelerating vaccination campaign is helping bring a post-pandemic reality into view. There are of course risks to the bearish bond scenario. Most prominently, yields could rise to the point that they spook stocks, and tighten financial conditions generally -- a key metric the Fed is focused on for guiding policy. Even so, Wall Street analysts can’t seem to lift year-end yield forecasts fast enough.“There’s a lot of tinder being put now on this fire for higher yields,” said Margaret Kerins, global head of fixed-income strategy at BMO Capital Markets. “The question is what is the point that higher yields are too high and really put pressure on risk assets and push Powell into action” to try and tamp them down.Share prices have already shown signs of vulnerability to increasing yields, especially tech-heavy stocks. Another area at risk is the housing market -- a bright spot for the economy -- with mortgage rates jumping.The surge in yields and growing confidence in the economic recovery prompted a slew of analysts to recalibrate expectations for 10-year rates this past week. For example, TD Securities and Societe Generale lifted their year-end forecasts to 2% from 1.45% and 1.50%, respectively.Asset managers, for their part, flipped to most net short on 10-year notes since 2016, the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.Auction PressureIn the days ahead, however, BMO is eyeing 1.75% as the next key mark, a level last seen in January 2020, weeks before the pandemic sent markets into a chaotic frenzy.A fresh dose of long-end supply next week may make short positions even more attractive, especially after record-low demand for last month’s 7-year auction served as a trigger to push 10-year yields above 1.6%. The Treasury will sell a total of $62 billion in 10- and 30-year debt.With expectations for inflation and growth taking flight, traders are signaling that they anticipate the Fed may have to respond more quickly than it’s indicated. Eurodollar futures now reflect a quarter-point hike in the first quarter of 2023, but they’re starting to suggest that it could come in late 2022. Fed officials have projected they’d keep rates near zero until at least the end of 2023.So while the market is leaning toward loftier yields, the interplay between bonds and stocks is bound to be a huge focus going forward.“There’s definitely that momentum, but the question is how well risky assets adjust to the new paradigm,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale. “We’ll be watching next week, when the dust settles after the payrolls data, how Treasuries react and how risky assets react to the rise in yields.”What to WatchThe economic calendarMarch 8: Wholesale trade sales/inventoriesMarch 9: NFIB small business optimismMarch 10: MBA mortgage applications; CPI; average weekly earnings; monthly budget statementMarch 11: Jobless claims; Langer consumer comfort; JOLTS job openings: household change in net worthMarch 12: PPI; University of Michigan sentimentThe Fed calendar is empty before the March 17 policy decisionThe auction calendar:March 8: 13-, 26-week billsMarch 9: 42-day cash-management bills; 3-year notesMarch 10: 10-year notesMarch 11: 4-, 8-week bills; 30-year bondsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Buy these 3 battery stocks to play the electric-vehicle party, but stay away from this company, says UBS

    Despite the recent selloff in electric-vehicle stocks like Tesla and Nio, there is still intense investor interest in the sector, with demand for electric-vehicles expected to climb dramatically over the next decades.

  • Chamath Palihapitiya Shares Lessons Learned After Tough Week For SPACs

    The last week has been a tough one for investors in many growth stocks. SPACs is one segment that was hit particularly hard. Lessons Learned From Palihapitiya: SPAC King Chamath Palihapitiya shared on Twitter Inc (NYSE: TWTR) how much he lost in the week and his thoughts on the SPAC market. “It’s been a super tough week for me and I’m sure a super tough week for some of you as well. Here is how I’m doing after Friday and what I’ve learned...” Palihapitiya tweeted. The investor broke down his lessons learned during the week as follows: “The first thing I tried to do yesterday was take a step back and try to see the bigger picture,” he said. Palihapitiya went on to say that March 2020 could be a guide as markets were down 20% then. Is this current market environment the same or different? Palihapitiya asks. He said he looked at his relative performance vs the S&P500, which breaks down as 3.6% compared to 2.3%, or 56% above the benchmark. He said he's not a "huge fan" of these numbers. “I re-questioned my goals and concluded my strategic view is still right: that inequality and climate change investments are a once in a lifetime opportunity to make hundreds of billions of dollars AND do the right thing," he said. “I freed up some capital by selling some shares in $SPCE so I can keep investing at scale without impacting my pace and strategic view.” Palihapitiya added that he hated selling the shares but had to do it after his balance sheet shrank by nearly $2 billion during the week. Palihapitiya also said he has not sold any shares of any other SPAC he’s launched. He went on to say that investing is hard, he is not perfect, and he is trying to learn just like his audience and followers on Twitter. “Be resilient and keep fighting,” he said. Markets are volatile and unforgiving, Palihapitiya added. Companies that do valuable things tend to see their value reflected in gains. “Find a way to make sure you are comfortable with what you own and if not, don’t be afraid to make changes. Prices are temporary but your peace of mind should not be,” he said. Palihapitiya ended his tweet with the Persian adage: “This too shall pass.” Related Link: 5 Things You Might Not Know About Chamath Palihapitiya Sale of Virgin Galactic Stock: The tweet from Palihapitiya came after he was in the news Friday for selling his personal stake in Virgin Galactic Holdings (NYSE: SPCE). Palihapitiya sold 6.2 million shares for around $211 million, according to Business Insider. It follows a similar sale in December. Palihapitiya still owns 15.8 million shares in Virgin Galactic through Social Capital Hedosophia, the company that Palihapitiya and partner Ian Osborne used to take the space tourism company public via SPAC. “I sold 6 million shares for $200 million, which I am planning to redirect into a large investment I am making towards fighting climate change,” Palihapitiya told Business Insider in an emailed statement. The investment will be made public in the next few months. It’s been a super tough week for me and I’m sure a super tough week for some of you as well. Here is how I’m doing after Friday and what I’ve learned... pic.twitter.com/fX5YHdqBv6 — Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) March 6, 2021 Disclosure: Author is long shares of SPCE. See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from Benzinga3 Former SPACs Report Earnings: What Fisker, Velodyne Lidar, Virgin Galactic Investors Should Know© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

  • Tesla Model 3 Demand Spikes In Japan Following 25% Price Slash

    Has Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) recent price slashes in the Japanese market played out in a way your college Economics 101 professor would be proud of? What Happened: According to a recent report by Automotive News, the Model 3 has received significant price slashes in the neighborhood of 25% for the Japanese market. Full pricing information is provided below. Model 3 Standard Range Before Price Cut Model 3 Standard Range After Price Cut $48,000 $41,000 5.11-million yen 4.29-million yen Model 3 Long Range Before Price Cut Model 3 Long Range After Price Cut $60,450 46,052 6.55-million yen 4.99-million yen (Pricing on the Performance Model 3 remains unchanged.) For readers unfamiliar, the law of demand states if a firm raises prices on a given good or service, the demand for said good or service shrinks. Meanwhile, all else equal if prices decrease, the quantity of a good thereby increases. In other words, price and quantity demanded have an inverse relationship. All this being said, a report from Teslarati highlighted Model 3 delivery estimates in Japan have been pushed back to three to four months, a staggering increase in expected wait time from the prior six- to eight-week window. This delivery data suggests, at minimum, interest in the near-term for Tesla's entry-level EV has spiked. Why It Matters: Official sales numbers from Japan in February are not available, but Elon Musk’s Tesla really needs all the help it can get to spur demand in Japan. Automotive News notes Tesla sold less than 2,000 units in the country in 2020, a drop in the bucket as Musk seeks to sell 20 million EVs globally by 2030. Price Action: According to data from Benzinga Pro, Tesla shares ended down about 4% on Friday, ending the after-hours session at $596.25. Tesla shares are trading lower in sympathy with the overall market amid continued concerns over increased bond yields, which have heavily impacted stocks across sectors. The stock has a 52-week high of $900.40 and a 52-week low of $70.10. See Also: How To Buy Tesla Stock. See more from BenzingaClick here for options trades from BenzingaThinking About Buying Stock In Roku, Workhorse, GE Or Tesla?Meet Alteryx, A Big Data Analytics Competitor To Palantir© 2021 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.