Three makes a trend. Late last night the Bank of Japan joined the European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve in announcing an asset buying program intended to spur spending and stimulate moribund economies. At least jump-starting growth is the stated intent; the only thing printing money to buy assets does for certain is weaken local currencies and drive asset prices higher.
With these moves from the ECB and BOJ coming on the heels of the Fed's announcement last week, U.S. investors are rethinking the weird new world. Jeff Kilburg, founder and CEO of Killir Kapital Managment has some simple advice: Buy.
"Analysts? They can go on vacation at least until after Christmas," Kilburg says in the attached video. "You can buy anything except the U.S. Dollar."
As the BOJ, ECB and Fed all obviously know, if you print an unlimited amount of anything the value is reduced. The U.S. has long taken advantage of that economic law of supply and demand to help its exports and reduce its debt burden. It wasn't the deed that shocked traders, it was the magnitude. With a more than $40b per month and estimates for the total size of anywhere from $250 billion to $2 trillion, the magnitude of the Fed's plan is simply stunning.
"Initially everyone was looking for the big bazooka," says Kilburg. "Ben dropped the A-bomb." More bullish still, at least in terms of asset prices, is that the stimulus can't be quickly unwound even if the Fed wanted. With unlimited QE and a stated intent to keep rates low through 2015, the Fed is going to help whether the market needs it or not.
With China thought to be a long-time currency manipulator and Japan, the ECB and Fed al doing so openly with their own paper Kilburg says "It's the race to debase". "Everyone in the world is trying to bring their currency down."
For now the U.S. is in the lead. Until that changes Kilburg says that anytime the market is open is a good time to buy stocks.
- Budget, Tax & Economy