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    SHILLER: House Prices Probably Won’t Hit Bottom For Years

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    The July numbers for the most widely followed measure of house prices, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, were released this morning.

    The numbers weren't terrible--on a seasonally adjusted basis, July was basically the same as June--but one of the creators of the index, Professor Robert Shiller of Yale University, isn't taking much solace in them.

    The economy has deteriorated significantly since July, Professor Shiller observes, and he suspects that the housing market has followed suit. And, from a broader perspective, house prices are still down more than 4% year over year.

    In February, Professor Shiller startled those looking for an imminent "bottom" in house prices by suggesting that house prices could still fall 10% to 25%. He's standing by that assessment.

    House prices won't necessarily plunge from here in nominal terms, but in real terms--after adjusting for inflation--they could still drop significantly, Professor Shiller says. And the bottom might not arrive for years.

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    196 comments

    • Buddy  •  7 months ago
      THE TRUTH IS YOU DON'T WANT TO OWN A HOUSE THAT IS OVER INFLATED AND OWE THE BANK A TON OF MONEY!!!!
      • Last straw 7 months ago
        Not only the banks but also the town and condo associations.
      • Thor Veblen 7 months ago
        The real truth is the whole neighborhood idea was set up for people that had jobs,,,, it's time to dump the city,,,,, buy about 5 acres , get some chickens, grow something people can eat,,,
    • Monique  •  7 months ago
      This is such crap!!!! Housing prices have fallen for the last 4 yrs ... Why are property taxes so high,,, Rip offs
      • william 7 months ago
        Because the state and local governments are broke and need revenue...property taxes will go higher.
      • minority4america 7 months ago
        Well, most states tax you at the price you bought. Buy at a high, pay at a high. There are pluses and minuses to this kind of taxing
      • Brokenspringangelsmon 7 months ago
        Property taxes are calculated the same everywhere. Assessed value - any exemptions X millage rate. If assessed value goes down all they need to do is up the millage and the same $$$ go to government. If you want low taxes go somewhere where the millage rate is low/capped as well as the delta (year over year) assessed value increases.
    • E.R., Jaffrey, NH  •  7 months ago
      Try to get a loan from a bank, despite low interest rates! The banks now even CHARGE us for depositing in their banks. What happened to banks PAYING interest ? I remember the Great Depression as a child, when you had to remove your cap when you entered a bank and speak only in whispers, just like being in a library or a church!! I guess what goes around does come around!!!
      • E.R., Jaffrey, NH 7 months ago
        Why do my earlier comments have a REMOVE sign attached???
      • '9ers 7 months ago
        So that you can remove your comment if you desire.
      • william 7 months ago
        The original banks were nothing more than gold vaults where you payed the proprietor to "hold and secure" your gold...like storage fees.
    • Phil  •  7 months ago
      we need more JOBS JOBS JOBS... And the housing market is very unstable till the foreclosures are all put to rest.
    • Joe  •  7 months ago
      The economy hasn't deteriorated much since July. You obviously haven't noticed that it's been in gradual decline since 2007. The recession never ended -- it just paused long enough to pick up all of the free money from the stimulus.
    • YahooUser  •  7 months ago
      Recently sold my house at 70% loss. Many would have walked away or done strategic default. The lesson I learnt is in buying and selling, the usual agents - realtors, banks, title insurance, even tenants, will always get their cut. Never foresaw house prices going down that much as building it costs much more than the sell price. So buyer beware. That is capitalism for us.
      • Royce Mullins 7 months ago
        Not neccesarily. If you yourself build your own house it does not cost quite as much as having a contractor do it for you or buying one that is newly constructed! So word to the wise... DO IT YOURSELF when building your own home!
      • Just 7 months ago
        Capitalism???? How about fraud and theft along with the manipulation of the markets by a number of groups.
      • Itold 7 months ago
        In socialism you would get 9 square meters of living space per person in your household.. no private house. So what are you complaining about?
    • WISCHEESE  •  7 months ago
      Look if you want a house, find one that has a selling price equal to 1996-97 selling prices, that is fair today...and if you can't find one in that range in your area, then move on to a seller that wants to deal and sell a house. It's your market and it's great rates, and rentals are only going up. My rent is more than my mortgage will be with taxes included...sure I'm not buying my dream house, BUT it's nice and the American Dream is not being in debt to creditors it's living and growing while providing basic needs for your family. A family of four does NOT need a 4 bedroom home of 2000 sqft! UN-consumerize yourself and live happily, because of location and price, NOT SIZE!
      • Amanda A. 7 months ago
        Totally agree. People need to live below there means. The house prices over - inflated after 2000 because too much credit flooded the markets and housing standards relaxed so much that just anyone could go and sign there name and get a home so they allowed sellers to over charge because they didnt know the math and just wanted the house at whatever cost.
    • Raymond  •  7 months ago
      When the house prices are low enough then people can actually afford to buy a home. The goal of the government is to support the banks and make it obligatory to use their "services" and pay them interest for 30 years. A better idea is to buy or sell your home on a contract directly and bypass the banks altogether. There really is a bright side to the housing crash.
    • c.b2006  •  7 months ago
      inflation will bail out people especially those who have low rate fixed mortgages
    • Ex Exec  •  7 months ago
      Offer fell through. Now, another listing, $224,900, then down to $208,900, that was firm at $199,900, Bank, earlier rejected our offer of $200K, is now $189,900. We would re-offer $184,900? Can you figure what is going on with the Banks?
    • WISCHEESE  •  7 months ago
      The housing market bubble was created and inflated to distract you from stagnant wages and the dissolve of employee benefits and retirements...so F em! You want a happy life, then live WAY below your means, save your money and spend it only on things that will enhance your life, WHICH INCLUDE ONLY AMERICAN MADE, those dollars will come back into your community and we will rebuild America. Shop local, eat at home or at mom and pop, it's better for you in any and all ways.
    • Scott  •  7 months ago
      "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered...I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."
      Thomas Jefferson
    • DDT  •  7 months ago
      Repeat after me, "Artificially Inflated Market!" The banks post pricing of homes. They are intentionally sitting on a LOT of inventory. No one is auditing them. So what do we get? Housing prices at unreal levels and kept unaffordable to "the Average American." So much for the American Dream. Banking is so god #$%$ corrupt house prices won't fall until the real economic disaster settles in! The best is yet to come.
    • Vegas09  •  7 months ago
      in a healthy economy home values are supposed to appreciate as real incomes grow. this is rather hard to accomplish in reality when so many are suffering from stagnant wages and declining wages in some markets.
    • Thoughts  •  7 months ago
      My guess is, is
      1. Until we use up the pipeline of underwater and bankrupt home inventory the prices will keep falling until the number of underwater home drops
      2. Until the economy starts going up, there will still be instability. This is contingent on political stability - by far the dysfunctional nature of politics is the main driver behind the failing US economy, coupled with the impact of a period of change in core technologies.
      3. Over the short to mid-term (5 years) house prices are going to keep falling. Even if the economy improves, until housing inventory goes down, I don't expect improvement.
      4. After that I expect a long-term boom to fill pent-up demand and the expected boom in the US economy.

      Well, I am putting my money where my mouth is and am appropriately investing.
    • Bobby  •  7 months ago
      Typical 2 articles on Yahoo saying the opposite thing. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Spring-buying-boosts-US-home-apf-2702336463.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
    • Andy  •  7 months ago
      Remeber Shiller is a real estate hedge fund manager. It is in his interest to get swings of home prices to go as far in both directions as possible. Do your DD.
    • anonymous2  •  7 months ago
      with recession, joblessness and continued jobloss, there will be more downward pressure on home prices as foreclousures will continue
    • True Love  •  7 months ago
      We'd love to buy a house. But I'm not stupid. I know our local market has significant room to drop. Why would anyone buy today, when they know it will fall tomorrow?
    • Manly HA  •  7 months ago
      Holding foreclosures off the market does slow the decline in house prices. Less supply for the current demand does slow the decline. But mostly the government doesn't want to start a panic. They know if home prices start dropping quickly then people will panic in large numbers and the government will have to come up with 5-10 trillion to prevent the country from going back to the dark ages. Our government is wasting all the money they are comfortable with. If they waste much more it will cost them their jobs and they can't have that.

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