Blount’s Numbahs: Spill is down but big up week possible
good morning – today is series s2H NORMAL and the SPILL is DOWN. Whoever gets the a,m, turn right wins the Kewpie on the sardine level. (ESU14:CME)
RIGHT NOW the most important feature on the chart is THIS RALLY from the weekly low last week at 1988.1 SPOO FUTURES and 1990.57 SPX.It is obvious that the decline from the 2002.5 futures high @ 2005.04 SPX is a 3 wave affair.Look at the 5 min PSX chart in your box: It is screaming out that this rally will be an expanded FLAT if we terminate in 3 waves up AND that the next drop will be 5 waves down to complete the EXPANDED in its 3-3-5 form.OF COURSE the ‘B” HAS TO BE a new all time high to qualify as part of an expanded flat.IF PRICE DOES NOT EXCEED 2005.04, cash don’t lie, then the market can still move down to complete blood red 4.
NOW, if this rally advances in 5 waves to new all time highs then the BLOOD RED 4 did indeed seal at 1990.82 cash , 1988.1 SPOO AND this is the most conservative opinion available.A more bullish read and one that has to be acknowledged is simply that the drop from 2005.04 to 1990.82 is too shallow to be blood red 4 and is a lesser degree 4 in stead.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, if we do rally in 5 waves exceeding the all time high, then for the first time since Jan. 15 a decent case for the end of the rally with origin 1074.77 CASH Oct. 4, 2011 could be COMPLETE–SEE THE 195 STERN WARNING CHART from last monday.I know there was a grudging BIG ARSE III ‘possibility’ given on the TEPPER 1897.28 CASH high Apr. 4, 2014, BUT IT WAS CONTINGENT UPON THRUST and that LEAN melted like snow 3 trading sessions intothe move and was replaced with the TRAFFIC LIGHT count that resulted in nailing the 1808.5 SPOT LOW, 1814.36 CASH LOW
If we begin declining then the only thing to STOP BIG ARSE 4 FROM BEING IN MOTION would be the ADVANCE from 1904.78 would be simple: the degree of waves on the rally will have been of minute degree not minor degree and the the 5 waves up = a larger wave 1.
NOW we can talk price: We have been working in a tight BAND from 1993-2007 cash with MOE amidst tightening ranges and volatility squeeze out. A move through 1909 cash MOE should result in a squirt to 2014 CASH!!!!! MOE. As far as the SPOTS 2004.5 and 2011.5 are concerned , they were assigned recently with FV in the -3 neighborhood.This means that they will be probably overshot by the denigration of FV to under -2..SPOTS ,M TA ROUNDIES…BIG WEEK FOR POTENTIAL CATALYSTS –beige book, DRAGHI, NFP …
FV -1.78 NUMBAHS S2H NORMAL 09/02/ 2014 SEPT 2014 contract
DAILY WEEKLY
PIVOT 1998.6 1997.3
S1 1995.7 1992.2
S2 1989.8 1982.9
R1 2004.4 2006.6
R2 2007.3 2011.7
MAX H 2013.1 2021.0
MAX L 1987.0 1977.8
Range Projections
1997.2-2005.9 Primary 1994.8-2009.2
1992.8-2001.5 Alternate 1987.6-2002.0
TVS
2001.3 HIGH 2002.5
1998.7 LOW 2027.5
TWO DAY
2012.9-2016.5 HIGH
1978.0-1981.6 LOW
OPG 1998.5 1995.8
H 2001.6 2002.5
L 1992.7 1988.1
C 2001.4 2001.4
