Is China Pharma Holding (CPHI) A Hidden Gem or A Value Trap?
Value-focused investors are always on the hunt for stocks that are priced below their intrinsic value. One such stock that merits attention is China Pharma Holding Inc (CPHI). The stock, which is currently priced at 0.25, recorded a loss of 16.89% in a day and a 3-month decrease of 23.44%. The stock's fair valuation is $1.88, as indicated by its GF Value.
Understanding GF Value
The GF Value represents the current intrinsic value of a stock derived from our exclusive method. The GF Value Line on our summary page gives an overview of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on three factors:
1. Historical multiples (PE Ratio, PS Ratio, PB Ratio and Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow) that the stock has traded at.
2. GuruFocus adjustment factor based on the company's past returns and growth.
3. Future estimates of the business performance.
We believe the GF Value Line is the fair value that the stock should be traded at. The stock price will most likely fluctuate around the GF Value Line. If the stock price is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher.
However, investors need to consider a more in-depth analysis before making an investment decision. Despite its seemingly attractive valuation, certain risk factors associated with China Pharma Holding should not be ignored. These risks are primarily reflected through its low Altman Z-score of -3.59, and a Beneish M-Score of 1.01 that exceeds -1.78, the threshold for potential earnings manipulation. The company's revenues and earnings have been on a downward trend over the past five years, which raises a crucial question: Is China Pharma Holding a hidden gem or a value trap? These indicators suggest that China Pharma Holding, despite its apparent undervaluation, might be a potential value trap. This complexity underlines the importance of thorough due diligence in investment decision-making.
Deciphering the Altman Z-score and Beneish M-Score
Before delving into the details, let's understand what the Altman Z-score entails. Invented by New York University Professor Edward I. Altman in 1968, the Z-Score is a financial model that predicts the probability of a company entering bankruptcy within a two-year time frame. The Altman Z-Score combines five different financial ratios, each weighted to create a final score. A score below 1.8 suggests a high likelihood of financial distress, while a score above 3 indicates a low risk.
Developed by Professor Messod Beneish, the Beneish M-Score is based on eight financial variables that reflect different aspects of a company's financial performance and position. These are Days Sales Outstanding (DSO), Gross Margin (GM), Total Long-term Assets Less Property, Plant and Equipment over Total Assets (TATA), change in Revenue (?REV), change in Depreciation and Amortization (?DA), change in Selling, General and Admin expenses (?SGA), change in Debt-to-Asset Ratio (?LVG), and Net Income Less Non-Operating Income and Cash Flow from Operations over Total Assets (?NOATA).
Unveiling China Pharma Holding
China Pharma Holding Inc is a drug manufacturing company primarily engaged in the development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products for human use in connection with a variety of high-incidence and high-mortality diseases and medical conditions prevalent in the People's Republic of China. The company mainly manufactures pharmaceutical products in the form of dry powder injectables, liquid injectables, tablets, capsules, and cephalosporin oral solutions. The product line of the company includes cefaclor dispersible tablets, clarithromycin granules, roxithromycin dispersible tablets, andrographolide tablets, ozagrel sodium for injection, gastrodin injection, and others.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
