EM ASIA FX-Ringgit near 5-yr low as oil plunges; Asia FX down in Nov
* Ringgit may head to 3.4295/dollar
* Malaysia intervention spotted to curb ringgit loss-traders
* Won to see longest monthly losing streak since 2008 crisis
(Adds text, updates prices)
By Jongwoo Cheon
SINGAPORE, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Malaysia's ringgit led losses
among emerging Asian currencies, hitting a near five-year low on
Friday as oil prices tumbled, while regional units were poised
to suffer depreciation in November.
The ringgit lost as much as 0.8 percent to 3.3720
per dollar, its weakest since March 2010, as offshore funds
dumped the currency on fears that lower oil prices may hurt
Malaysia, a net oil exporter and major palm oil producer.
Brent crude fell close to a four-year low touched in
the previous session after OPEC decided not to cut oil output to
support prices.
"The sharp drop in oil prices will weigh on the fiscal
position and the trade balance position," said Jonathan
Cavenagh, senior FX strategist with Westpac in Singapore.
"Only central bank intervention stands in the way of further
USD/MYR strength."
Malaysia's central bank was spotted intervening to limit the
ringgit's losses, traders said. Still, spot ringgit is seen
weakening to 3.4295, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of
its appreciation from 2009 to 2011, analysts said.
The country narrowed the fiscal deficit to 3.9 percent of
gross domestic product in 2013, and Prime Minister Najib Razak
wants to further trim the gap to 3.5 percent this year and to 3
percent in 2015, heading toward a balanced budget by 2020.
Malaysia's exports in September rose 2.0 percent from a year
earlier, missing market expectations, government data showed on
Nov. 7.
The ringgit was the No. 3 worst-performing emerging Asian
currency with a 2.8 percent loss against the dollar so far this
year, according to Thomson Reuters data.
"We remain unconstructive on MYR," said Sacha Tihanyi, a
senior currency strategist for Scotiabank, said in a research
note.
"Though USDMYR has traded through our end of year target of
3.30 rather rapidly in November, we continue to see further
weakness and will likely be revising up our USDMYR forecasts for
2015 and 2016."
South Korea's won and Taiwan's dollar
underperformed the ringgit on concerns that a weaker yen
will reduce competitiveness of those countries' exporters.
WON DOWN FOR 3RD MONTH
The won has fallen 3.5 percent so far in November, a third
consecutive monthly depreciation and the longest monthly losing
streak since the November 2008 global credit crisis, Thomson
Reuters data shows.
Adding to the gloomy outlook, South Korea's industrial
output in October unexpectedly fell, data showed on Friday.
The South Korean currency led a monthly slide in emerging
Asian currencies.
"Given very weak October data and our expectation of a fall
in November exports, we cannot rule out the possibility of a
25bp rate cut on 11 December, though this is not our base case,"
Nomura economist Young Sun Kwon wrote in a research note.
The ringgit has lost 2.4 percent so far in November, which
would also be a third straight monthly slide. The Taiwan dollar
has eased 1.5 percent.
Singapore's dollar has fallen 1.3 percent, which
would be a fifth consecutive monthly depreciation, the longest
monthly losing spree since March 2013.
The Indonesian rupiah has lost 1.0 percent, while
the Indian rupee has slid 0.9 percent.
The Chinese yuan has fallen 0.6 percent, which
would be the largest monthly loss since April.
CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR
Change on the day at 0425 GMT
Currency Latest bid Previous day Pct Move
Japan yen 118.29 117.79 -0.42
Sing dlr 1.3026 1.2980 -0.35
Taiwan dlr 30.948 30.951 +0.01
Korean won 1107.30 1098.40 -0.80
Baht 32.80 32.78 -0.05
Peso 44.89 44.85 -0.09
Rupiah 12200.00 12176.00 -0.20
Rupee 61.89 61.88 -0.02
Ringgit 3.3700 3.3465 -0.70
Yuan 6.1479 6.1392 -0.14
Change so far in 2014
Currency Latest bid End prev year Pct Move
Japan yen 118.29 105.28 -11.00
Sing dlr 1.3026 1.2632 -3.02
Taiwan dlr 30.948 29.950 -3.22
Korean won 1107.30 1055.40 -4.69
Baht 32.80 32.86 +0.19
Peso 44.89 44.40 -1.10
Rupiah 12200.00 12160.00 -0.33
Rupee 61.89 61.80 -0.15
Ringgit 3.3700 3.2755 -2.80
Yuan 6.1479 6.0539 -1.53
(Additional reporting by IFR Markets' Catherine Tan; Editing by
Anupama Dwivedi)