Euro: A True EUR/USD Turn as ECB’s Draghi Hints at Intervention?

DailyFX

  • Dollar Rallies to Close at 2 Year High as Risk Slips
  • Euro: A True EURUSD Turn as ECB’s Draghi Hints at Intervention?
  • British Pound Rallies as BoE Easing Expectations Prove Unfounded
  • Japanese Yen: Risk Trends Putting Pressure on Japanese Officials
  • Canadian Dollar Traders Prepare for Jobs Data, Volatility
  • Australian Dollar Takes Another Hit as RBA Lowers Growth Forecast
  • Gold Unimpressed by ECB Tone, Drops to Support

New to FX?Watch thisVideo; For live market updates, visitDailyFX’s Real Time News Feed

Dollar Rallies to Close at 2 Year High as Risk Slips

A trace of dovishness from the ECB and an early session dive in capital markets drove the US dollar materially higher Thursday. Putting aside the greenback’s extended performance against counterparts like the Australian dollar, we garner a far better picture of the benchmark’s more recent strength when we look to the more mainstream pairings. Most notable is the world’s most liquid currency pair – EURUSD – which had deviated from the broader performance of the dollar since mid-December. Since topping at the end of last week, though, both EURUSD and the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) have slowly begun to realign. And, with the additional support of this particularly important pair, we have seen the USDollar overtake 2012’s high and close at its highest level since November 30, 2010.

As is the case in the Forex market, much of the dollar’s strength is derived from the relative weakness of its counterparts rather than a serious strengthening of its own accord. The fundamental depreciation the greenback experienced against the Euro has proven its greatest hurdle. From the reduced tail risk of a Eurozone crisis, the currency’s recovery (and consequential subverting of the dollar) shifted to the realization that the European Central bank (ECB) was actually reducing its balance sheet through regional banks’ early repayment of the Long-Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO) program. That is a dramatic contrast to the Fed’s persistent $85-billion-per-month purchases. On that point, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans – amongst the most committed dove – said the stimulus purchases could potentially continue for over a year. However, his allowance that the program can be capped before the jobless rate hit 7 percent was still seen as a moderating of the Fed’s dovish extremes.

Pulling the EURUSD into the fold with the rest of the majors resolves a serious complication to the fundamental backdrop and can offer the dollar additional strength. Yet, bullish momentum for the dollar will continue to find some measure of restraint unless the most primal of fundamental drivers throws in its weight: risk trends. There are plenty of early signs of souring sentiment, but full-blown risk aversion (where the dollar’s safe haven status really stands out) won’t be fully convincing until stimulus-supported US equities and yen crosses reverse.

Euro: A True Turn as ECB’s Draghi Hints at Intervention?

The euro took a dive against all of its major counterparts this past trading session. Progress behind the shared currency’s decline has brought us to the point where we have to wonder whether we’ve seen a permanent shift to bear trend. As discussed above, the most remarkable turn comes via the EURUSD’s 2.3 percent drop from 14-month highs set last Friday. Given the stubbornness of sentiment and the blatant improvement in relative, central bank balance sheets; a turn from this particular pair carries significant fundamental weight for the euro.

So, where does this possible break in euro bullishness come from? Key was this past sessions, ECB policy meeting. At first glance, the group didn’t cut rates, adopt a new stimulus program or move to offset the LTRO liquidity drain. That said, President Draghi did hint – to a highly sensitive market – that conditions could warrant an easing effort in the future. Along with reiterating a weak growth forecast, the central banker remarked that the policy authority would monitor the euro’s level for its contributions to inflation risk. There is little action behind this threat as of yet, but traders recognize that the ECB has room to cut the benchmark rate – an easier move than adopting new stimulus measures.

In other news, a significant burden for Ireland – a bailout member – was lifted when the ECB approved a swap of promissory notes to longer-term (30-year) government bonds. That will reduce the total costs of its rescue; but note their declaration that this was a one-off. Sure…

British Pound Rallies as BoE Easing Expectations Prove UnfoundedThe sterling played out exactly the opposite performance that the euro had this past session. A market-wide advance was derived from unrealized speculation. Heading into the Bank of England’s policy meeting, there was a growing belief amongst bears that the policy body would upgrade its policy efforts to bring it more inline with the accommodative BoJ or Fed. Instead, the group was mum aside from a statement that maturating gilts would be reinvested. Another big sterling booster was future Governor Carney’s suggestion that current policy may be enough.

Japanese Yen: Risk Trends Putting Pressure on Japanese Officials

This isn’t what Japanese policy officials want to see. The yen advanced against all of its major counterparts with the exception of the British pound this past session. The concerted and consistent effort by the government and central bank to devalue their currency has been awe-inspiring. Yet, they are starting to run out of venues for action and carry risks are growing fatigued. If US equities dives, so do yen crosses.

Canadian Dollar Traders Prepare for Jobs Data, Volatility

We shouldn’t expect standard fundamental indicators to determine lasting trend from the Canadian dollar at this point – that is something only monetary policy and risk trends can successfully accomplish. That said, meaningful data and substantive surprise can produce serious volatility. That said, tomorrow brings December trade and January jobs statistics. Look to risk-disconnected CAD-pairs at 13:30 GMT.

Australian Dollar Takes Another Hit as RBA Lowers Growth Forecast

It seemed as if the heavy fundamental flow of the week had passed for the Aussie dollar. However, there was another fundamental driver for the currency to absorb this morning. Instead of being fully discounted by the rate decision, the RBA’s monetary policy report weighed AUDUSD further below 1.0300 by lowering the June (2.5 from 2.75 percent) and December (2-3 from 2.25-3.25 percent) growth forecasts.

Gold Unimpressed by ECB Tone, Drops to Support

Though it was veiled in central bank-speak, ECB President Draghi essentially said the policy group was watching and willing to act on the rising euro. The currency devaluation threat isn’t too be taken lightly after five years of Fed stimulus and the BoJ’s rapid ascent in the Currency War. And yet, gold wasn’t convinced. The precious metal – an alternative to currencies – actually dropped back to tightening support at 1,665.

**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar

ECONOMIC DATA

GMT

Currency

Release

Survey

Previous

Comments

CNY

Trade Balance (USD)

$24.20B

$31.62B

Demand for foreign goods was weak over 2012.

CNY

Imports (YoY)

23.50%

6.00%

CNY

Exports (YoY)

17.30%

14.10%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY)

-13.80%

Little changed on a yearly basis.

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook

52.0

51.0

Reached the same high on 04/11.

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current

48.0

45.8

Showed a slight improvement in confidence in Japanese economy

5:30

CNY

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

2.00%

2.50%

Within a manageable level, speed of urbanization is a major force.

5:30

CNY

Producer Price Index (YoY)

-1.50%

-1.90%

Selling prices has been falling from 08/11- 08/12 until it rebounded.

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate

3.40%

3.30%

The non s.a and s.a. rate were rising gradually since 09/11. While the non s.a spiked on 01/12.

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a.

3.10%

3.00%

7:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (euros)

15.0B

17.0B

Exports were increasing at a faster rate than imports.

7:00

EUR

German Current Account (euros)

17.5B

15.3B

Increasing with large fluctuations.

7:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM)

1.40%

-2.50%

Both decreased during 10/12- 11/12, but imports felt more than exports.

7:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM)

1.60%

-3.70%

7:30

EUR

Bank of France Business Sentiment

93

95

Little changed on business sentiment on a yearly basis.

7:45

EUR

French Central Government Balance (euros)

-103.4B

Balance in 2011 and 2012 are identical in over the year.

8:15

CHF

Retail Sales (Real) (YoY)

2.90%

One year average at 3.5.

9:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)

0.30%

-1.00%

Non s.a. data showed a downtrend since 2010. The w.d.a data signals weakness. While s.a data signals a slow pick up in momentum.

9:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY)

-7.30%

-7.60%

9:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)

6.9

-7.60%

13:15

CAD

Housing Starts

195.0K

198.0K

Has declined since 04/12, due to concerns on housing bubble.

13:30

USD

Trade Balance

-$46.0B

-$48.7B

Trade deficit narrowed in 09/12 but widened again shortly.

13:30

CAD

International Merchandise Trade (C$)

-1.45B

-1.96B

Demand for foreign goods has increased since 12/11.

13:30

CAD

Net Change in Employment

5.0K

31.2K

Participation decreased from 05/12 to 09/12, which partially explained the increase in full time and part time employment on 07/12.

13:30

CAD

Unemployment Rate

7.20%

7.10%

13:30

CAD

Part Time Employment Change

-1.4K

13:30

CAD

Full Time Employment Change

41.2K

15:00

USD

Wholesale Inventories

0.40%

0.60%

Has slowly recovered from the low on 10/12.

GMT

Currency

Upcoming Events & Speeches

00:30

AUD

RBA Monetary Policy Statement

-:-

EUR

EU Leaders Hole Summit in Brussels

11:00

EUR

ECB Announces Weekly Repayment of LTRO Lending

20:45

USD

Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks on Options Prices

-:-

USD

Deadline for US Pentagon’s Budget Cuts

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table

Click Here to Learn 3 Basic Forex Trading Strategies: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=880UGOQyK40

CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT

SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

Currency

USD/MXN

USD/TRY

USD/ZAR

USD/HKD

USD/SGD

Currency

USD/SEK

USD/DKK

USD/NOK

Resist 2

15.5900

2.0000

9.2080

7.8165

1.3650

Resist 2

7.5800

5.8300

6.1150

Resist 1

15.0000

1.9000

9.1900

7.8075

1.3250

Resist 1

6.8155

5.7350

5.8200

Spot

12.7088

1.7736

8.9165

7.7559

1.2389

Spot

6.4073

5.5620

5.5176

Support 1

12.5000

1.6500

8.5650

7.7490

1.2000

Support 1

6.0800

5.4440

5.5000

Support 2

11.5200

1.5725

6.5575

7.7450

1.1800

Support 2

5.8085

5.3350

5.3040

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

Currency

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

USD/CAD

AUD/USD

NZD/USD

EUR/JPY

GBP/JPY

Resist. 3

1.3532

1.5840

94.71

0.9256

1.0041

1.0383

0.8442

127.40

148.97

Resist. 2

1.3502

1.5810

94.41

0.9236

1.0025

1.0361

0.8420

126.91

148.48

Resist. 1

1.3472

1.5779

94.11

0.9216

1.0009

1.0338

0.8399

126.41

147.98

Spot

1.3412

1.5719

93.52

0.9175

0.9978

1.0294

0.8356

125.43

146.99

Support 1

1.3352

1.5659

92.93

0.9134

0.9947

1.0250

0.8313

124.45

146.00

Support 2

1.3322

1.5628

92.63

0.9114

0.9931

1.0227

0.8292

123.95

145.51

Support 3

1.3292

1.5598

92.33

0.9094

0.9915

1.0205

0.8270

123.46

145.02

v

--- Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

Additional Content:Money Management Video

Trading the News Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

Rates

View Comments