Next week’s FOMC statement will be the only market-moving data
Weekly Realist real estate roundup, August 12–16 (Part 6 of 7)
(Continued from Part 5)
After a heavy week, bonds have an easier schedule
After last week’s flood of data, bonds will get a bit of a break. The minutes from the FOMC meeting have the potential to be market-moving. Earnings-wise, the retailers dominate the news—although we’ll get a read on the luxury end of the housing market when Toll Brothers (TOL) reports on Wednesday.
Economic data this week
Monday, August 19
Nothing
Tuesday, August 20
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Wednesday, August 21
MBA Mortgage Applications
Existing home sales
FOMC minutes
Thursday, August 22
Initial jobless claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Markit PMI
FHFA House Price Index
Leading economic indicators
Kansas City Fed
Friday, August 23
New home sales
Earnings releases this week
Wednesday, August 21
Toll Brothers (TOL)
Implications for mortgage REITs
Next week will be all about the FOMC statement. No other economic data should be market-moving. The Street is leaning towards a first reduction in asset purchases at the September meeting. The FOMC statement was a bit dovish (not very aggressive), though, so market participants will be ultra-focused on the minutes. After the bloodbath in rates last week, REITs like Annaly (NLY), American Capital Agency (AGNC), and MFA Financial (MFA) are just hoping for some stability.
Implications for homebuilders
Homebuilder earnings are largely done, with only Toll Brothers (TOL) left. Toll Brothers is in the McMansion business, so its numbers are really relevant to only one segment of the market. That said, homebuilders do focus on consumer confidence, and homebuilder analysts will want to hear what some of the retailers have to say. So far, we’ve seen disappointments out of Wal Mart (WMT), which shows that the lower-end consumer is struggling. The builders will also focus on existing home sales—if for no other reason than to get a read on inventory (new homes compete with existing homes). The FHFA House Price Index will also be of interest. New home sales on Friday will be yesterday’s news for the most part.
Continue to Part 7
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