RBC says Elan 's Alzheimer treatment could yield mixed data

After conducting channel checks, RBC Capital believes that Elan (ELN) may issue data on its Alzheimer treatment in July or August. The firm's base case is that the treatment likely won't meet the primary endpoint of the study. However, the firm thinks that the results could be mixed. Specifically, the treatment may yield statistically significant results on one of the cognitive endpoints, and show a statistically significant reduction of a physical symptom of the disease. If the company does report mixed results, the stock could trade in a range of $12-$15, RBC believes. With very positive and clean Alzheimer drug data, RBC thinks Elan shares could top $25. In addition, the firm thinks that the FDA would be more likely to approve the treatment than most investors believe if the study yields mixed results. In mid-morning trading, Elan fell 0.67% to $13.38.