U.S. Steel (X) Preview: Will Imports Dent Earnings Again?

U.S. Steel X is set to release its third-quarter 2015 results after the bell on Nov 3.

In the last quarter, the steel giant had delivered a negative earnings surprise of roughly 14.49%, hurt by lower prices due to a torrent of cheap steel imports and a sizable charge to write-down its retained interest in its Canadian unit, U. S. Steel Canada (“USSC”). U.S. Steel has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in 2 of the trailing 4 quarters while missing in the other 2, with an average beat of 11.53%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

U.S. Steel, in its second-quarter 2015 call, said that it expects market conditions to improve in the back half of 2015 compared with the first half as supply chain inventories continue to rebalance, especially in flat-rolled markets. CEO Mario Longhi said that the company has taken up aggressive actions to cope with the still challenging conditions in North America.

U.S. Steel, like other domestic steel makers, is struggling to cope with an influx of low-priced imports. High levels of imports led to lower steel pricing and volumes in the company’s Flat-Rolled segment in the second quarter and are expected to remain a major headwind in the September quarter. U.S. Steel’s Tubular segment also remains challenged by weak pricing due to imports.

Lower oil prices are also hurting U.S. Steel’s business in the energy market. The combined impacts of cheap imports and lower oil prices have forced U.S. Steel to take necessary actions including idling of a number of production facilities, resulting in the layoff of thousands of workers.

U.S. Steel, earlier this month, said that it is examining a potential consolidation of its North American Flat-Rolled operations and may idle its Granite City Works steelmaking operations and most finishing operations in Granite City, IL, on a temporary basis. The company has issued notices to 2,000 employees at Granite City Works. This possible consolidation reflects continued challenging market conditions including volatility in oil prices, dampened steel prices and unfairly traded imports.

Earlier, in August, U.S. Steel announced its plans to permanently shutter all its blast furnace and related steelmaking operations, along with most of the flat-rolled finishing operations at Fairfield Works in Fairfield, AL, affecting around 1,100 workers.

Nevertheless, U.S. Steel is aggressively pursuing actions to improve its cost structure through its “Carnegie Way” program amid a difficult operating environment, The Carnegie Way initiative is expected to generate meaningful benefits in 2015, allowing the company to somewhat offset the operational challenges through the year. Strong demand in the automotive space is also expected to support U.S. Steel’s results.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that U.S. Steel will beat earnings estimates this quarter. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for U.S. Steel is +7.14%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate stands at a loss of 26 cents, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of 28 cents.

Zacks Rank: U.S. Steel has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), which when combined with a positive ESP, makes surprise prediction difficult. We caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look
 
Here are some companies in the basic materials sector you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Koppers Holdings Inc. KOP has an Earnings ESP of +3.08% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Pan American Silver Corp. PAAS has an Earnings ESP of +27.27% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Franco-Nevada Corp. FNV has an Earnings ESP of +7.69% and a Zacks Rank #3.

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