The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Early last year, the consensus belief had the economy headed toward a recession and the Federal Reserve needing to be aggressive with interest-rate cuts to prevent significant weakness in GDP. As 2023 progressed, the recession callers backed off as the economy kept its footing after the huge hike in the fed funds rate as well as the entire Treasury curve. And while inflation came down a lot faster than may thought, it did so without a concurrent weakening in the economy.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Equinix Inc (EQIX); Expedia Group Inc (EXPE); American Intl Grp In (AIG); Netflix Inc (NFLX) and the Focus List deletions are Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG); Comcast Corp (CMCSA); ProLogis (PLD); Royal Caribbean Group (RCL).

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Equities have sent confusing and contradictory signals throughout a back-and-forth 2023. Since setting year-highs at the end of July, the S&P 500 has mainly moved lower. During various attempted recovery spurts, the one thing that has been consistently lacking has been breadth. A handful of AI superhero stocks cannot carry the market, and narrow recovery tries are doomed to fail, in our view.

Equities have sent confusing and contradictory signals throughout a back-and-forth 2023. Since setting year-highs at the end of July, the S&P 500 has mainly moved lower. During various attempted recovery spurts, the one thing that has been consistently lacking has been breadth. A handful of AI superhero stocks cannot carry the market, and narrow recovery tries are doomed to fail, in our view.

Another Fed week is here, but it should be one of the tamest since 2021 -- before the central bank began its tightening cycle. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is virtually no chance that the FOMC will move the fed funds target from the current 5.25%-5.50% target range. But unless Jerome Powell says that hikes are a thing of the past, there should be building anticipation about the next meeting on November 1 -- when the probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) hike is 31%. This rises to 37% for the last 2023 meeting on December 13. Looking out to June 2024, there is a fairly even chance the fed funds range will be at the same level as today or 25 bps lower.

For the first time in the month of August, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have moved higher for consecutive days -- one of the few positive things we can say about August. The month has seen lower stock prices, higher bond yields, a higher dollar, and cratering crypto markets. This too shall pass. The one positive for stocks is the rapidly increasing bearish market sentiment, especially considering the major index pullbacks have not been close to serious. In a bull market, if sentiment quickly turns sour (and it was overheating quite a bit at the end of July) that generally is a bullish sign for the overall market.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This is an exciting week for late August. A major stock, Nvidia (NVDA), reports after the close on Wednesday, and the Federal Reserve's summer gathering at Jackson Hole gets underway, featuring Chairman Powell speaking on Friday.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Monday Tee Up: The Fed, Jobs, Earnings

Our analysis of the data that has been reported in recent weeks leads us to conclude that key components of U.S. GDP are still expanding, despite the impact of inflation, the pandemic, and geopolitical developments. That said, growth is not consistent across all segments of the economy and, in many cases, growth rates are slowing. The risk of recession is real -- but a U.S. recession is not a foregone conclusion. After reviewing the latest economic data, we have raised our 1Q23 GDP estimate to 1.3% from our prior forecast of 0.2%. We continue to look for the first quarter to start at a weak rate, but then for the economy to improve as the year goes on. Our estimate for all of 2023 is now 1.8%, up from our prior forecast of 1.6%. The U.S. Federal Reserve is combating inflation with aggressive interest-rate hikes. Our preliminary forecast for GDP growth in 2024 remains 1.8%, as the Federal Reserve, with its tool chest again full after hiking rates during 1H23, can contemplate lowering interest rates to recharge economic growth. Our GDP estimates generally are in the range of other forecasters. The Wall Street Journal Economic Survey calls for GDP growth of 0.2% in 2023 and 1.9% in 2024. The Federal Reserve is now anticipating GDP growth of 0.5% for 2023, and for growth of 1.6% in 2024. Meanwhile, the IMF is calling for 2023 growth of 1.4%. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters is calling for growth of 0.7% in 20232 and 1.8% in 2024.A recent GDPNow Forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta sees growth of 2.5% for 1Q23.

As of this writing, the S&P 500 and the S&P 100 are up 6% so far in 2023, the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are higher by 11%, the S&P 400 has popped 8%, and the Russell 2000 has gained 9%. So the overall market is off to a good start (especially after 2022). All those indices have jumped above their 200-day averages, though some by only a very minor amount. All but the S&P 100 also have broken their bear-market trendlines -- but, again, by very small margins.

Rapidly rising inflation 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those fixed-income returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.5% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate.

Chartists have spent many hours over many years looking for the Holy Grail of technical indicators -- and most have realized that one does not exist. Surprisingly, many of the best indicators are simple -- and why they work so well is often easily explainable. That brings us to the moving average crossover, which is a mere two averages that give buy and sell signals when they cross. We've tested many combinations -- and while some are very good, they all have their faults.

We'll take a wild guess that the S&P 500 (SPX) has never peaked on the first trading day of a new year and then moved lower for the rest of the year. In 2022, the index did close about 7% above its bear-market low from October (a month in which downtrends often end). The SPX lost 19.4% in 2022, with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 giving up 33% as most Technology stocks (from small- to mega-cap) took the brunt of the losses. The Dow Industrials fared much better, falling 8.7%, while S&P 400 lost 13% and the Russell 2000 was down 20%.

The data that has been reported in recent weeks illustrates to us that key parts of U.S. GDP are still expanding, despite the impact of inflation, the pandemic, and geopolitical developments. That said, growth is not consistent across all segments of the economy and a recession is a real risk as the Federal Reserve hikes rates to slow pricing pressures. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will let us know in a few months if a recession is a go or not. Based on our review of the latest economic fundamentals, our forecast for GDP growth in 2022 is now 0.8%, up from our prior forecast of 0.7%. In 2023, we look for the first quarter to start at a negative rate, but then for the economy to improve as the year goes on. Our estimate for the full year 2023 remains 1.3%. The U.S. Federal Reserve is combating inflation with aggressive rate hikes. Our concern is that the central bank is raising rates too quickly and will send the U.S. economy into recession in 2023. If that's the case, we expect to see the unemployment rate head higher toward 6.0% over the next few quarters. Our GDP estimates are generally in the range with other forecasters. The Federal Reserve is now anticipating GDP growth of 0.2% for 2022, while the IMF is calling for 2022 growth of 1.6%. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters is calling for growth of 1.6% in 2022 and 1.3% in 2023. The GDPNow Forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is 2.8% for 4Q22.

We are starting to see a little downside acceleration in the U.S. Dollar Index, as well as Treasury yields from five years and longer. At the same time, silver (SLV) and gold (GLD) have seen some upside acceleration. To some degree, the Fed probably doesn't want to see the greenback and market rates fall too far, as both are an obvious stimulant to the economy. On the other side, a falling dollar and yields could reflect the market's worry of a slower economy and possible recession in 2023.

Stocks were mostly lower on Thursday as investors weighed new inflation and employment data, along with a PMI index that showed a decline in manufacturing activity - the first since May 2020. The core PCE price index for October showed inflation slowing from both the prior month and the prior year, while first-time jobless claims were lower than expected. The Labor Department said that initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 16,000 to 225,000 for the week ended November 26, below the consensus of 235,000. On Friday morning, investors will be focused on the Labor Department's November employment report. The current consensus calls for the addition of 200,000 payroll jobs, down from 261,000 in October, and a slightly higher unemployment rate of 3.8%. The Dow fell 0.56%, the S&P fell 0.09%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.13%. Crude oil rose 1% to more than $81 per barrel, while gold jumped $57 to $1817 per ounce.

Once again, we are left with the okay, the bad, and the ugly. After the (as expected) fourth consecutive 75-basis-point interest-rate hike by the FOMC on Wednesday, Chairman Powell squashed any hopes that some pressure would be taken off the brake that is slamming the economy. In response, the stock market (perhaps by way of algos) did its thing, sending prices sharply lower into Thursday morning. Stocks then stabilized as cooler heads prevailed. Friday was quite the wild session, as the SPX soared 2% early on, went slightly negative midday, and then finished 1.4% higher.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Director of Research Kelleher typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Merck & Co Inc (MRK); Fox Corporation (FOXA); Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG); Target Corp (TGT) and the Focus List deletions are Alphabet Inc (GOOGL); Laboratory Corp. Of America Hl (LH); SVB Financial Group (SIVB); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX).

Recession Fears Grow: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his much anticipated speech in Jackson Hole on Friday morning. Investors will be scrutinizing Mr. Powell's comments for clues about the size of the September interest rate hike, and the pace of additional hikes later this year and in 2023. Ahead of the Fed conference, Kansas City Fed President Esther George said that it was 'too soon' to predict the size of the September hike, and that the decision would depend on upcoming economic data. On Thursday, the Commerce Department reported a smaller-than-expected decline in 2Q GDP. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits were down slightly from the prior week and below the consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.98%, the S&P 1.41%, and the Nasdaq 1.67%. Crude oil fell 2% to $93 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1771 per ounce.