The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The cold hard message is sinking in. Higher rates are here to stay for longer than expected. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said multiple times that the Fed will be 'data-driven' when deciding on monetary policy. And the data has spoken. First, let's look at inflation. There has been great progress made in knocking inflation down from its peak of 9.1% in June of 2022. But achieving progress at the current lower levels, with inflation in the low-3% range, as expected, has been difficult. The Fed has been specific, saying inflation needs to be at 2% before restrictive policy will be eased. The Fed was patient after the January inflation data, and again with February data. But when March showed persistently higher prices, the Fed threw came right out and said that change can wait. Chairman Powell said the following last week. "The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence..." and "If higher inflation does persist, we can maintain the current level of restriction for as long as needed." Now let's consider unemployment. The Fed again has been specific. Officials are looking for a 4.1% unemployment rate to gently (hopefully) slow the economy. Currently, the rate is not budging and is vacillating between 3.8% and 3.9%. Given the current macroeconomic backdrop, the following is a list of industries and companies we like that should benefit from a sustained period of higher interest rates. All are BUY-rated at Argus.

U.S. stocks were mixed on Friday morning following Israel's limited retaliatory strike against Iran. American Express (AXP) topped 1Q estimates and rose 4%. Meanwhile, Netflix (NFLX) shares are down sharply, despite the company easily beating expectations in the latest quarter and providing strong guidance. In a significant deviation from past practices, the company has decided to stop reporting subscriber numbers or average revenue per member, which is causing concerns among investors that the absence of these key metrics could point to stagnating growth. The Dow was up 0.4%, the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq lost 1.1%. Crude oil is trading above $83 per barrel and gold rose $12 to $2410 per ounce.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Laboratory Corp. Of America Hl (LH); Micron Technology Inc. (MU); Oracle Corp. (ORCL); Invesco Ltd (IVZ) and the Focus List deletions are Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD); American Express Co. (AXP); Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD); Unitedhealth Group Inc (UNH).

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The long-term laggards in the S&P 500 (SPX) finally rose on Tuesday, while many of the major Technology sector stocks finally took a breather. Some of the low-relative-strength stocks got a lift from Q4 earnings and forward guidance, while others gained from analyst upgrades.

Stocks are higher at midday, this after weakness earlier in the session that was mostly the result of disappointing guidance from the likes of Intel and KLA Corp. That said, December's headline Personal Consumption Expenditures price index appears to have resonated with investors who seem to be increasingly of the opinion that the Fed has indeed set the stage for a soft landing of the U.S. economy. PCE rose 0.2%, following a 0.1% decline in November and leaving annual PCE unchanged at 2.6%. Core PCE also rose 0.2%, up from 0.1% in November and bringing the annual rate to 2.9% from 3.0% last month. Elsewhere, Personal Spending rose 0.7%, which was higher than the expected increase of 0.5%. Personal Income drifted lower, rising 0.3% to match expectations but down from 0.4% in November. As well, solid earnings from American Express and Colgate-Palmolive are adding to a positive mood as the trading week draws to a close.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks. High-yield stocks typically have dividends that pay out in the 5%-8% range. Though the income appears attractive, the share prices of high-yield stocks may be at risk. Dividend-growth stocks typically have lower yields, often in the 1.0%-2.5% range. But the lower-yielding dividends are not likely to be a huge component of cash flow, leaving management teams with other value-additive options for deploying cash. Further, while the yields are not as high, management teams may be more likely to boost the payouts over time, as earnings grow.

Stocks fell again on Friday morning amid continued turmoil in the Middle East and concerns about high bond yields and further Fed rate hikes. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that rising bond yields could limit the need for additional rate hikes, but that the Fed could still raise rates if necessary to cool the economy and control inflation. On the earnings front, American Express reported strong 3Q results and reaffirmed its full-year guidance. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 1.0%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil rose 1% to $90 per barrel, while gold rose $11 to $1991 per ounce.

In this edition, analyzing new bank regulatory proposals; PFA may shake up atrial fibrillation ablation market; CEO change at Dollar General may make sense to frustrated investors; and Microsoft, Wells Fargo, and Anta Sports Products.

Global economic growth is expected to slide in 2023 and flatten in 2024, according to the latest World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund. Growth in 2023 is slightly higher in the latest summer forecasts than previously forecast in the spring. The IMF remarked that growth is predicted to remain "weak" by historical standards. By the numbers, the world economy is expected to expand 3.0% in both 2023 and 2024, after having grown 3.5% in 2022. All of these rates are below the long-term historical global growth rate of 3.8%, due largely to the impact of inflation and higher interest rates. For industrialized economies (the U.S., Europe, Japan, etc.) growth is forecast for a miniscule 1.5% in 2023 and an even lower 1.4% in 2024. The U.S. is expected to generate growth of 1.8% in 2023, with a drop to 1.0% in 2024, according to the IMF. For emerging economies (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, etc.), growth forecasts call for 4.0% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024. The clear leaders are expected to be China and India, with average growth for the two years of 4.8% and 6.2%, respectively. Even these growth nations have different drivers: with population growth in India and productivity growth in China, as GDP/capita increases. We factor these global growth forecasts into our asset-allocation models. Based in part on the slow global growth rates, we continue to recommend that investors over-weight portfolios toward U.S.-based securities. Generally, global stocks represent value, but the risks to growth are high.

In this edition, streaming services changing their channels; BRP looks promising; China's AI is calling; and Autoliv, Sirius XM, and American Express.

Stocks rose modestly on Friday morning as investors weighed more 2Q earnings reports and looked ahead to the Fed's interest rate decision next week. American Express shares fell, despite better-than-expected earnings, on concerns about rising loss provisions and slower card spending in the second half of the year. CSX also fell after the railroad operator reported second-quarter revenue and earnings that were down from the prior year. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose 1% to $76.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1961 per ounce.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Thus far in 2023, market bulls are boasting about first-half S&P 500 returns that may top 15%. No one is very focused on the broad market index's 1.6% current yield. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. In 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Fed hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

Global economic growth is expected to slide in 2023 before turning higher in 2024, according to the latest World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund. The pick-up in 2024 is attributed largely to the expected economic impact of China's recent reopening, offset by the ongoing war in Ukraine, and higher interest rates across the globe. By the numbers, the World Economy is expected to expand 2.8% in 2023, after having grown 3.4% in 2022. In 2024, growth is expected to accelerate to 3.0%. All of these rates are below the long-term historical global growth rate of 3.8%, due largely to the impact of inflation and higher interest rates. For industrialized economies (the U.S., Europe, Japan, etc.) growth is forecast at a miniscule 1.3% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024. The U.S. is expected to be a steady 1.3% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024. For emerging economies (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, etc.), growth forecasts call for 3.9% in 2023 and 4.2% in 2024. The clear leaders are expected to be China and India, with average growth for the two years of 4.8% and 6.1%, respectively. Even these growth nations have different drivers: population growth in India and productivity growth in China, as GDP/capita increases. We factor these global growth forecasts into our asset-allocation models, and based in part on the slow global growth rates we continue to recommend that investors over-weight portfolios toward U.S.-based securities. Global stocks generally represent value, but the risks to growth are high.

The major indices were little changed on Friday morning, as gains in the Consumer Discretionary and Staples sectors were offset by declines in Financials, Energy, and Materials. On the earnings front, Procter & Gamble shares rose more than 3% after the company posted better-than-expected fiscal 3Q earnings, helped by price increases and strong sales of new products, and raised its full-year sales forecast. Hospital operator HCA Healthcare also rose 5% after reporting strong 1Q results and raising its sales and earnings guidance. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil rose to $78 per barrel, while gold dropped $31 to $1988 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The S&P 500 (SPX) fell to 3,928 during Thursday's session, landing a tad below its 200-day average (at 3,940) and at a 38.2% retracement (3,927) of the rally since October. But by the close, the SPX had recovered -- and then some. If the index does break below the 200-day, the first key chart support is 3,783 or the low from December 28. Breaking that low leads to many possibilities. The rising 200-week comes in at 3,720 and the rising 50-month sits at 3,670. Both these averages provided support at the October 2022 lows and were last busted in July of 2008. The 50-week was broken during the pandemic, but only for three weeks.

After two down days, the S&P 500 (SPX) has fallen to a fairly important area in the near term, namely the 4,100 level. Short-term trading is filled with intricacies. But we are not (and never will be) short-term traders, using a myriad of charts and multiple computer screens that must be watched constantly.

The current volume of insider transactions remains the primary issue when considering current insider sentiment. As is always the case when earnings season in full swing, insiders are broadly prohibited from trading and, as such, there are few transactions and therefore few meaningful signals about insider sentiment. But even with less sentiment inputs, the weekly data from Vickers Stock Research does reflect trends -- and current trends ring no alarms.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are American Express Co. (AXP); Skechers U S A, Inc. (SKX); Seagate Tech Hldgs Pl (STX); Netflix Inc (NFLX) and the Focus List deletions are JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM); Home Depot, Inc. (HD); Microsoft Corporation (MSFT); T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS).

Dividend growth is among our most-important investment themes in 2023, and stretches across industries. At this stage of the economic and market cycles, Argus recommends that investors pay close attention to dividend growth. We think consistent -- and accelerated -- dividend growth at a company gives three important signals to investors: 1) the company's balance sheet is strong enough to pay a dividend; 2) management is mindful of shareholder returns, which include dividends; and 3) a significant dividend increase can be a message from management that the near-term outlook for the company is promising, even during a pandemic. In particular, we like companies that have grown their dividends at an average double-digit pace over the past five years. Stocks on our BUY list that meet this test include the following.

Dividend income, an important element of total return, is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022 as well. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

Last week was the busiest of the quarter for corporate earnings, with a fair number of sharp moves in stock prices following above- or below-consensus results or changes in company guidance. Through October 25, Refinitiv reports that 129 S&P 500 companies have announced earnings, with 74% of those coming in ahead of the EPS consensus. The blended (reported and estimated) growth rate for the full quarter, however, is now at 3.3%. That's down from the 4.5% that was expected at the start of the quarter, which is likely a combination of the magnitude of the earnings misses as well as earnings estimates still coming down for those still scheduled to report. Sectors with the strongest beat rates so far have been Healthcare and Communication Services, where 100% of companies reporting have come in ahead of consensus. The biggest laggard has been Consumer Discretionary, where only 47% have exceeded consensus. Energy dominates, with a 119% blended earnings growth rate versus 3Q21, while Financials are at the other end with a 16% earnings decline. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to strong returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 3Q22 EPS reporting season.

Monday Tee Up: Earnings, Inflation Data, and GDP

Last week was the busiest of the quarter for earnings, with many sharp stock-price moves following above- or below-consensus results or changes in guidance. Through July 26, Refinitiv noted that 133 S&P 500 companies had reported earnings, with 76% beating expectations, above the long-term average of 66%. The blended (actual for those reporting and consensus for those still to report) growth rate is 6.2%, near the 5.6% expectation and indicating the "beats" have not been robust. But the sour mood coming into the quarter is being greeted with relief that profit shortfalls and lowered guidance are not rampant. Our analysts always look for companies that boost outlooks during earnings season. Raising guidance can be a catalyst for strong returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus coverage with raised guidance or increased outlooks during the 2Q22 EPS reporting season.

In this edition, Equifax Looking Good, Uber and Lyft Examined, PVH Makes Headway Among Headwinds , and Biogen, American Express, and Boston Beer.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning, as gains in most sectors were offset by sharp declines in Communication Services. Snap shares fell more than 35% after the social media company missed its already lowered revenue guidance. Verizon also fell 6% after posting below-consensus EPS and lowering its full-year guidance. On the positive side, American Express rose nearly 5% after reporting better-than-expected 2Q results. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P was flat, and the NASDAQ fell 0.4%. Crude oil rose slightly to $97 per barrel, while gold traded near $1730 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning, as gains in most sectors were offset by sharp declines in Communication Services. Snap shares fell more than 35% after the social media company missed its already lowered revenue guidance. Verizon also fell 6% after posting below-consensus EPS and lowering its full-year guidance. On the positive side, American Express rose nearly 5% after reporting better-than-expected 2Q results. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P was flat, and the NASDAQ fell 0.4%. Crude oil rose slightly to $97 per barrel, while gold traded near $1730 per ounce.

Expectations for robust global economic growth in 2022 have been lowered in recent weeks, in the wake of ongoing supply-chain problems, earlier-than-expected changes in monetary policy, and cutbacks in aggressive fiscal spending by governments around the world. Late last year, the International Monetary Fund was looking for global growth in 2022 of 4.9%, down from 6.1% in 2021. In its latest update, the IMF is now anticipating 3.6% growth, with industrialized economies expanding 3.3% and emerging economies growing 3.8%. The IMF expects U.S. GDP to grow 3.7%, while European GDP expands 2.8%, and Japan's economy increases at a 2.9% rate. The outlook for China has been cut as well; the forecast for the world's second-largest economy is now 4.7%. India is among the few nations for which forecasts remain relatively intact, with a growth rate of 7.7%. In terms of asset allocation, we continue to recommend that investors overweight portfolios toward U.S.-based securities. Global stocks generally represent value, but outlooks are less certain.

Stocks have struggled this year, with the S&P 500 now down over 12% (excluding dividends) so far in 2022. But not every stock has tumbled. Our analysts have been working through earnings season and have come across several stocks in Argus coverage that have approached target prices. We set target prices through our valuation framework, which includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, and future dividends and cash flows. After adjusting the models for the latest earnings and dividend information -- most of which has been good -- here are some of the stocks for which we have raised target prices over the past month. All of the following stocks are rated BUY at Argus.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks have struggled in 2022, but insider-sentiment readings from Vickers Stock Research have not at any time suggested a full-on dash to the exits is in order. In general, insiders have bought the dips.

This edition features our different tune on Sirius XM, credit card company calculations, China equities, and GoodRx, Carnival, and Adobe.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

We recently lowered our intermediate-term technical outlook to bearish from bullish. The major indices have been cutting through important support levels. The condition of most individual stock charts is ugly, with many losing their 50-day averages and then cratering through their 200-day averages. This is definitely a change of character: absent the pandemic, it is something we have not seen since September 2018 (and 2015 and 2016 for some of the higher-beta indices). We have not had a decent-sized correction since the pandemic swoon, so we are certainly overdue.

The Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report for December 2021 will be released on Friday, January 7, 2022. This report is always eagerly awaited by investors, as it provides the first -- and most-important -- view of the previous-month's economic activity. Last month, the report was a negative surprise, as the number of new jobs dropped to 210,000 in November from 546,000 in October, even though the worst of the Delta variant had passed and the Omicron variant had not yet emerged. We suspect that the data point was an aberration and will be revised upward in Friday's report. By comparison, paycheck-processing company Automatic Data Processing reported that payrolls grew by 534,000 in the month of November. We expect a pick-up in jobs growth in December, though Omicron likely will prevent a blowout number. Our forecast calls for 475,000 new positions created in the month and is based in part on trends in weekly unemployment claims, which have been heading lower in recent weeks and are now at all-time low levels (198,000 last week). We also look for the unemployment rate to tick higher to 4.4%, with more workers re-entering the workforce as vaccination rates rise (71% of 12-and-older in the U.S., up from 67% a month ago).

The Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report for October 2021 will be released at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, November 5. This report is always eagerly awaited by investors, as it provides the first and most-important view of the previous month's economic activity. In September, the economy generated only 194,000 jobs, down from the 366,000 jobs generated in August, and down even more sharply from the 1.09 million jobs generated in July. We expect a modest pick-up in October jobs growth, due in part to slowing growth in COVID-19 cases (with a seven-day average of 70k new cases last week compared to 165k new cases at start of September). Our forecast calls for 400,000 new positions created and is based, in part, on the trends in weekly unemployment claims, which have been moving lower in recent weeks and are not far from pre-pandemic levels (281,000 last week versus 225,500 in March 2020). We also look for the unemployment rate to tick higher to 5.0%, with more workers re-entering the workforce as vaccination rates rise (now 67% of 12-and-older in the U.S.).

October Surprise: Recouping September's Losses

Cash is no longer king for point-of-sale transactions, with only 12% market share compared to 38% for credit cards, 29% for debit cards, and 10% for the fast-growing digital wallet sector. We see a long secular road for growth, as digital payments are in the early stages of transition. Factors driving this trend include U.S. banks and the Federal Reserve encouraging digital over paper money; the pandemic, which has accelerated contactless payments as a safety step; and greater merchant acceptance for small dollar amounts. Importantly, the emerging generations (Millennials and Gen Z) embrace both mobile banking and digital payments. Forecasts call for digital-payment transaction value to grow at an 11% compound annual rate for the next five years and to reach $11 trillion from the 2020 level of $5.4 trillion. Several companies in the Argus Research fundamental universe of coverage are in position to take advantage of this opportunity. Each of the following stocks is rated BUY at Argus.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks insider trading and institutional ownership. Form 13-Fs have now come in from 2Q21. We review the 13Fs of major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

The stock market moved higher last week as the market digested a busy earnings week. Tech stocks outperformed blue chips as earnings came in very strong in portions of the tech sector. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 238 points, or 0.68%. The S&P 500 was up 1.01%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.04%. For the week, the DJIA was up 374 points, or 1.08%, the S&P 500 was up 1.96%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.84%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 14.56%, the S&P 500 is up 17.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 15.12%.