The 2024 Market So Far

This weekend, in Vegas, it's the Chiefs versus the 49ers. Usher is the halftime show; Tom Brady appears in a commercial; and Taylor Swift fans add a whole new demographic to the fan base. But aside from all that, there is big money at stake. For our list this week, we present possible ways to invest in the Super Bowl.

Global stocks are picking up the pace. While the S&P 500 has jumped almost 11% in the past month, the EAFA index of large- and mid-cap stocks based in countries other than the U.S. and Canada has risen 10%. Over the past six years, the performance gap has been wider, with the S&P 500 advancing 12% compared to a 7% gain for the EAFE. But the underperformance has given global stocks a valuation advantage, particularly in the area of dividends. The EAFE dividend yield of 2.4% is 80 basis points higher than the comparable S&P 500 dividend yield. We think global dividend stocks now offer opportunity, particularly given the endless speculation over the direction of interest rates in the U.S., which has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. Those investors have endured recent wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity sectors such as Utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection of companies that pay dividends, robust industry diversification, and, as we have mentioned, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, and recommends the following international dividend stocks, each of which has at least a long-term HOLD rating from an Argus analyst.

With the number of trading days in 2023 dwindling down and the S&P 500 up 15% as of this writing, there is a very high historical probability that the index will add to its gains. Hot money will likely chase the best-performing, highest-relative-strength, and best-looking charts for the rest of 2023.

Two-Thirds Through: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

To borrow from The Beatles, 'one, two, three, four, can I have a little more?' We now have logged a fourth consecutive week of bullish one-week insider sentiment, as detailed in data from Vickers Stock Research. With the volume of weekly insider transactions back to normal (as earnings season is all but over), Vickers' Total One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is 1.46 on a scale where any reading below 2.00 is bullish. But there is more good news in the form of an ongoing alignment of short- and long-term insider-sentiment data.

Monday Tee Up: Short Week Features the Jobs Report

Global stocks are on a run. While the S&P 500 has jumped almost 8% year-to-date, The EAFA Index of large- and mid-cap stocks based in countries other than the U.S. and Canada has risen 9%. Over the past six months, foreign stocks also have outperformed, climbing 11% versus a 1% decline by the U.S. market. The story is different over the past five years, as the S&P 500 has risen 50% and global stocks have fallen 1%. Even so, the long outperformance has given global stocks a valuation advantage, particularly in the area of dividends. The EAFE dividend yield of 2.7% is 100 basis points higher than the comparable S&P 500 dividend yield. We think global dividend stocks now offer opportunity, particularly given the endless speculation over the direction of interest rates in the U.S., which has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors - who have endured recent wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity sectors such as utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S. interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, and, as we have mentioned, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus recently boosted its global coverage, and recommends the following international dividend stocks, each of which has at least a long-term BUY rating from an Argus analyst. This list of approximately 25 companies offers exposure to eight of the 11 major industrial sectors. The list includes companies from 10 countries.

Rally in October, Stumble on the Fed: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years, as the Federal Reserve since 2018 has embarked on two campaigns to raise interest rates, sandwiched around a desperate program that lowered the federal funds rate to zero in order to help the economy recover from the pandemic. The endless speculation over the direction of rates has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity sectors such as Utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, higher yields, and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, and recommends the following international dividend stocks. Note this list of 25 companies offers exposure to eight of the 11 major sectors. The list includes companies from 10 countries.

On Friday morning, investors will be focused on the Labor Department's July employment report. The current Reuters consensus calls for the addition of 250,000 payroll jobs, down from 372,000 in June, and a steady unemployment rate of 3.6%. Stocks were mixed on Thursday ahead of the report, as investors weighed slightly higher weekly unemployment claims and a narrower trade deficit, helped by strong growth in exports. The Dow fell 0.26%, the S&P fell 0.08%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.41%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $88 per barrel, while gold jumped $33 to $1810 per ounce.

Stocks are getting pasted so far in June, with the S&P 500 down almost 4% on June 13 alone, and the Nasdaq and QQQs off 4.6%. Over the previous three trading sessions before that, the '500' plunged 9% and the Nasdaq and the QQQs plummeted about 10.5%. That was the largest three-day collapse for the '500' and the Nasdaq since the pandemic began, and the largest decline for the QQQs since September 2020.

Last week, the stock market had its best week since November 2020, breaking its five-week losing streak. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 274 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 rose 1.17%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.05%. For the week, the DJIA was up 1,810 points, or 5.5%, while the S&P 500 was up 6.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 8.18%. Year-to-date, the Dow is down 4.36%; and the S&P 500 is off 6.36%. The Nasdaq Composite extended its relative underperformance and is now down 11.19% year-to-date.

This edition features a roundup of analyst research on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Campbell, JD.com, and Guidewire.

While stocks have fallen since the start of 2022, current insider sentiment remains reassuringly benign. Indeed, the overall Insider Index from Vickers Stock Research is resting at its most-attractive level since November 2020. As expected now that earnings season is in full swing, insider trading volume has dropped from recent robust levels, with only 856 insider transactions meeting the criteria this week for inclusion in Vickers' Weekly Insider Report.

The Market at Nine Months

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In 2018, the Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates, causing Treasury yields to swoop and dive and resulting in a wild ride for supposedly stable U.S. high-income equities. In 2019, the Fed lowered rates in order to restore a normal upward slope in the yield curve. In 2020, global investors, fearing the spread of the coronavirus, pushed rates lower still. Now, in 2021, rates might be headed higher in a few months. The endless speculation over the timing of the Fed's next moves has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity classes such as Utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase diversity of holdings while reducing sensitivity to the Fed's head fakes on rate policy. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, such as currency exchange and even the potential for geopolitical turmoil. But there are also lots of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, adding the following BUY-rated international dividend stocks.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years as the endless speculation over the direction of rates has created market-timing headaches. Investors have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity sectors such as utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this segment for U.S. investors.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In 2018, the Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates, causing Treasury yields to swoop and dive and resulting in a wild ride for supposedly stable U.S. high-income equities. In 2019, the Fed lowered rates in order to restore a normal upward slope in the yield curve. And in 2020, global investors, fearing the spread of the coronavirus, pushed rates lower still. Now, in 2021, rates might be headed higher in a few months. The endless speculation over the direction of rates has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity sectors such as Utilities, REITs and MLPs. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this segment for U.S. investors.

Stocks closed mixed on Thursday as investors digested the Fed's policy decision. Interest rates will remain near zero but 13 of the FOMC's 18 members expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2023. The central bank will continue to purchase at least $120 billion a month in agency mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries. Yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose to 1.59%, but subsequently slipped to 1.5%. In other news, initial jobless claims rose to 412,000 for the week ended June 12. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P was down less than 0.1% and the Nasdaq was up 0.9%. Crude oil traded near $71per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1774 per ounce.

The stock market dropped last week, as surging bond yields signaled tighter lending conditions may lie ahead. Tech stocks were the hardest hit and the Nasdaq recorded its worst week since October-though blue chips certainly weren't spared. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 470 points, or 1.50%. The S&P 500 was down 0.48%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.56%. For the week, the DJIA dropped 562 points, or 1.78%, the S&P 500 was down 2.45%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 4.92%. For the year-to-date, the DJIA is up 1.06%, the S&P 500 is up 1.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 2.36%.

Stocks rose strongly on Tuesday morning amid continued vaccine optimism as Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech applied for emergency EU approval of their coronavirus vaccines. The European Medicines Agency said that it would complete its review of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine by December 29 and the Moderna vaccine by January 12. On the economic front, manufacturing activity slowed in Europe in November, based on IHS Markit's PMI, but strengthened in China. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9 in November - the strongest reading since November 2010 - from 53.6 in October. The Dow rose 1.4%, the S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $45 per barrel, while gold rose $35 to $1816 per ounce.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to volatile U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also a number of positives in this segment for U.S. investors. One is a more robust selection of high-quality names. Yields also tend to be higher in overseas markets in general. And finally, valuations can be more attractive.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In 2018, the U.S. Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates, causing Treasury yields to swoop and dive, resulting in a wild ride for supposedly stable U.S. high-income equities. The central bank reversed course in 2019, before moving to the sidelines. In 2020, due to the coronavirus, the Fed is back in action, cutting rates, backstopping numerous financial markets and pledging to do "whatever it takes" and "for as long as necessary." Also due to COVID-19, many U.S. companies have cut back or eliminated their dividends in order to preserve capital during the pandemic. The endless speculation over the timing of the Fed's next moves has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity classes such as Utilities, REITs and MLPs -- even as generally positive industry fundamentals remained largely intact. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase diversity of holdings while reducing sensitivity to the Fed's head fakes on rate policy. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, such as currency exchange and even the potential for geo-political turmoil. But there are also lots of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has boosted its global coverage, adding the following BUY-rated international dividend stocks.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In 2018, the U.S. Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates, causing Treasury yields to swoop and dive, resulting in a wild ride for supposedly stable U.S. high-income equities. The central bank reversed course in 2019, before moving to the sidelines. In 2020, due to the coronavirus, the Fed is back in action, cutting rates, backstopping numerous financial markets and pledging to do "whatever it takes" and "for as long as necessary." Also due to COVID-19, many U.S. companies have cut back or eliminated their dividends in order to preserve capital during the pandemic. The endless speculation over the timing of the Fed's next moves has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity classes such as Utilities, REITs and MLPs -- even as generally positive industry fundamentals remained largely intact. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase diversity of holdings while reducing sensitivity to the Fed's head fakes on rate policy. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, such as currency exchange and even the potential for geo-political turmoil. But there are also lots of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has boosted its global coverage, adding the following BUY-rated international dividend stocks.

Corporate insiders have come out of earnings season in a neutral mood. As major stock indices flirt with new highs, corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners are not dumping shares; but neither are they loading up in a manner that suggests significant additional gains for stocks. As such, the current batch of insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research creates little concern this week, though a drill-down does reveal an item of interest.

Corporate insiders have come out of earnings season in a neutral mood. As major stock indices flirt with new highs, corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners are not dumping shares; but neither are they loading up in a manner that suggests significant additional gains for stocks. As such, the current batch of insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research creates little concern this week, though a drill-down does reveal an item of interest.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning as governments continued to lift shutdown restrictions and discussed new stimulus measures. The European Commission announced a recovery fund of $826 billion to help stabilize European markets. Industries trading higher today include Consumer Finance, Banks, and Construction Materials. Industries trading lower include Metals & Mining, Internet & Direct Marketing Retail, and Software. The VIX is up 1.88 at 29.89. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.6%. Crude oil traded near $32.50 per barrel, while gold fell $10 to $1696 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning as governments continued to lift shutdown restrictions and discussed new stimulus measures. The European Commission announced a recovery fund of $826 billion to help stabilize European markets. Industries trading higher today include Consumer Finance, Banks, and Construction Materials. Industries trading lower include Metals & Mining, Internet & Direct Marketing Retail, and Software. The VIX is up 1.88 at 29.89. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.6%. Crude oil traded near $32.50 per barrel, while gold fell $10 to $1696 per ounce.

This edition features the energy sector's prospects after a period of great turmoil; opportunities in or global coverage amid the downturn; our top defense picks; and notes from Performance Food Group, Corteva, and new coverage Bausch Health.

The S&P 500 fell 7.6% on March 9, its worst one-day decline since late 2008 during the financial crises. From its all-time high on February 19, the index plunged 19% in just 13 days, also the worst decline since late '08. The index fell to support from the 61.8% retracement of the rally since December '18, as well as chart support from the March and June '18 lows in the 2,740 area.

The S&P 500 fell 7.6% on March 9, its worst one-day decline since late 2008 during the financial crises. From its all-time high on February 19, the index plunged 19% in just 13 days, also the worst decline since late '08. The index fell to support from the 61.8% retracement of the rally since December '18, as well as chart support from the March and June '18 lows in the 2,740 area.

Anheuser-Busch InBev is the largest brewer in the world and one of the world's top five consumer product companies, as measured by EBITDA. After the SABMiller acquisition, the company's portfolio now contains five of the top 10 beer brands by sales and 18 brands with retail sales over $1 billion. AB InBev was created by the 2008 merger of Belgium-based InBev and U.S.-based Anheuser-Busch. The firm holds a 62% economic interest in Ambev and in 2016 acquired SABMiller.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In 2018, the Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates -- causing Treasury yields to swoop and dive, resulting in a wild ride for supposedly stable U.S. high-income equities. In 2019, the Fed lowered rates, in order to restore a normal upward slope in the yield curve. And in 2020, global investors, fearing the spread of the coronavirus, have pushed rates lower still. The endless speculation over the direction of rates has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity classes such as utilities, REITs and MLPs -- even as generally positive industry fundamentals remained largely intact. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also many positives in this asset class for U.S. investors.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In 2018, the Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates -- causing Treasury yields to swoop and dive, resulting in a wild ride for supposedly stable U.S. high-income equities. In 2019, the Fed lowered rates, in order to restore a normal upward slope in the yield curve. And in 2020, global investors, fearing the spread of the coronavirus, have pushed rates lower still. The endless speculation over the direction of rates has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity classes such as utilities, REITs and MLPs -- even as generally positive industry fundamentals remained largely intact. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase portfolio diversification while reducing sensitivity to U.S interest rates. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, including the impact of currency exchange and geopolitical turmoil. But there are also many positives in this asset class for U.S. investors.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In 2018, the U.S. Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates, causing Treasury yields to swoop and dive, resulting in a wild ride for supposedly stable U.S. high-income equities. Then the central bank reversed course in 2019, before moving to the sidelines (we shall see) in 2020. The endless speculation over the timing of the Fed's next moves has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity classes such as utilities, REITs and MLPs - even as generally positive industry fundamentals remained largely intact. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase diversity of holdings while reducing sensitivity to the Fed's head fakes on rate policy. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, such as currency exchange and even the potential for geopolitical turmoil. But there are also lots of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, adding the following BUY-rated international dividend stocks.

Dividends are supposed to lend stability to a portfolio. However, U.S.-based equity income investors have experienced a high degree of volatility in recent years. In 2018, the U.S. Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates, causing Treasury yields to swoop and dive, resulting in a wild ride for supposedly stable U.S. high-income equities. Then the central bank reversed course in 2019, before moving to the sidelines (we shall see) in 2020. The endless speculation over the timing of the Fed's next moves has created market-timing headaches for equity income investors. They have endured wide swings in prices for rate-sensitive equity classes such as utilities, REITs and MLPs - even as generally positive industry fundamentals remained largely intact. In our view, investing in international income stocks is one way to increase diversity of holdings while reducing sensitivity to the Fed's head fakes on rate policy. Investing in overseas stocks carries its own set of risks, such as currency exchange and even the potential for geopolitical turmoil. But there are also lots of positives in this asset class for U.S. investors, including a wide selection, robust industry diversification, higher yields and lower valuations. Argus has recently boosted its global coverage, adding the following BUY-rated international dividend stocks.

Corporate insiders have come out of earnings season in a neutral mood. As major stock indices flirt with new highs, corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners are not dumping shares; but neither are they loading up in a manner that suggests significant additional gains for stocks. As such, the current batch of insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research creates little concern this week, though a drill-down does reveal an item of interest.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning as governments continued to lift shutdown restrictions and discussed new stimulus measures. The European Commission announced a recovery fund of $826 billion to help stabilize European markets. Industries trading higher today include Consumer Finance, Banks, and Construction Materials. Industries trading lower include Metals & Mining, Internet & Direct Marketing Retail, and Software. The VIX is up 1.88 at 29.89. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.6%. Crude oil traded near $32.50 per barrel, while gold fell $10 to $1696 per ounce.

Based on end-of-November data, the 4Q19 stock market is playing out like fourth-quarter markets usually do, with economically sensitive sectors mainly in the lead. But we are also seeing a catch-up move from a sector that lagged early in the year.