Early last year, the consensus belief had the economy headed toward a recession and the Federal Reserve needing to be aggressive with interest-rate cuts to prevent significant weakness in GDP. As 2023 progressed, the recession callers backed off as the economy kept its footing after the huge hike in the fed funds rate as well as the entire Treasury curve. And while inflation came down a lot faster than may thought, it did so without a concurrent weakening in the economy.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Over the past few weeks, trading generally has been bad for stocks and good for gold and Bitcoin. For the S&P 500, the 38.2% retracement of the rally since October 2022 was busted and support near 4,200 was lost. Breadth was weak in a manner typically seen in bear markets -- but at times also seen during corrective phases of a bull market.

Crude oil (WTI) hit another recovery high on Thursday, finishing at $90.67/barrel, and continues to see nice follow-through after its early September breakout. Crude had been stuck in a range going all the way back to the middle of November of last year and closed at its highest level since November 7, over 10 months ago. WTI has retraced over 38.2% of the decline since its secondary peak in June 2022.

Sometimes the stock market makes sense. And sometimes it leaves you shaking your head in disbelief. The most talked about and most anticipated quarterly earnings report in a very long time hit the news feed after Wednesday's close. Initially, it looked like a raging success, as Nvidia (NVDA) blew away estimates. The stock soared after hours, propelling the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures to nice gains.

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday morning after Fitch Ratings surprised investors by downgrading U.S. government debt. Fitch lowered its rating on U.S. debt to AA+ from AAA, citing 'expected fiscal deterioration' over the next three years, a rising debt burden, and repeated political standoffs over the debt ceiling. The White House and the Treasury Department strongly disagreed with the decision, with Treasury Secretary Yellen stating that it was 'arbitrary and based on outdated data.' The Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 2.0%. Crude oil fell more than 2% to $79.50 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1972 per ounce.

With July 2023 now in the books, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 have all risen for five consecutive months, tacking on 16%, 25%, and 31%, respectively. For the month, the "500" rose 3%, the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 and S&P MidCap 400 all gained 4%, and the Russell 2000 popped 6%.

With the S&P 500 up 15.9% in the first half of 2023, history weighs heavily in the bullish camp for the second half. The last eleven times the S&P rose at least 10% in the first half of the year, the index added to its gains in the second half. The last year this did not happen was 1987.

On Friday, the S&P 500 (SPX) stalled right at some important resistance -- but it's still possible the recent rally has legs. The August 2022 closing and intraday high of 4,305-4,325, as well as a 61.8% retracement (4,312) of the bear market, were reached Friday with the index closing at 4,299. As we have said of late, it will be telling to see how the index deals with its current cluster of resistance.

Monday Tee Up: The Fed, Jobs, Earnings

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of The Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Form 13-Fs, which institutions must file to report their holdings, are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have now come in for 4Q22. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past quarter with high-profile investments into blue-chip companies such as Walt Disney and Salesforce. Based on data from Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

Stocks fell on Wednesday morning ahead of the Fed's policy statement, as investors weighed more 4Q earnings reports and new labor market data. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies added 106,000 jobs in January, down from a revised 253,000 in December and well below the Reuters consensus forecast of 178,000. On the earnings front, AMD rose more than 7% after the company posted strong 4Q results, helped by sales of data center chips, and pointed to a strong second half in 2023. Stryker shares also rose strongly following above-consensus 4Q sales and earnings and positive 2023 guidance. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell 1% to $78 per barrel, while gold traded near $1945 per ounce.

Last week was the busiest of the quarter for corporate earnings, with a fair number of sharp moves in stock prices following above- or below-consensus results or changes in company guidance. Through October 25, Refinitiv reports that 129 S&P 500 companies have announced earnings, with 74% of those coming in ahead of the EPS consensus. The blended (reported and estimated) growth rate for the full quarter, however, is now at 3.3%. That's down from the 4.5% that was expected at the start of the quarter, which is likely a combination of the magnitude of the earnings misses as well as earnings estimates still coming down for those still scheduled to report. Sectors with the strongest beat rates so far have been Healthcare and Communication Services, where 100% of companies reporting have come in ahead of consensus. The biggest laggard has been Consumer Discretionary, where only 47% have exceeded consensus. Energy dominates, with a 119% blended earnings growth rate versus 3Q21, while Financials are at the other end with a 16% earnings decline. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst to strong returns in the quarters ahead. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus coverage for which management has raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 3Q22 EPS reporting season.

Stocks rallied on Friday morning as investors looked past weak 3Q results and disappointing guidance from Amazon. Energy shares rose, as both Exxon and Chevron reported much stronger-than-expected earnings. On the housing front, the National Association of Realtors said that its pending home sales index fell 10.2% to 79.5 in September. The Reuters consensus forecast had called for a smaller decline of 5.0%. The Dow rose 1.6%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil fell 1% to $88 per barrel, while gold traded near $1645 per ounce.

The S&P 500 (SPX), the S&P 100 (OEX), and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) all posted a third consecutive 1% gain on Tuesday, an impressive accomplishment. Of note, the SPX and the QQQs posted four straight 1% gains in March, May, July, and now October, while the OEX just missed doing so. The rest of this week, as well as next week, looms large because the "big guns" are all reporting third-quarter results. Remember, it's not the actual results or the guidance (if any is given), but rather the reaction to the results.

In this market, one must take on a herd mentality. When the narrative changes, investors do a 180. After weakness since mid-August and into the end of September and with the S&P 500 down 17% in six weeks, the month and quarter turned over and investors' appetite for stocks turned on a dime. Over the past two days, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq surged 5.7%, with the QQQs popping 5.6%. The IWM soared 6.8% and the S&P 400 rocketed 7%. There has been broad participation and clear evidence of risk-on behavior over the past two days -- with Energy swelling 10%, and Materials, Industrials, Technology, Financials, and Communication Services all rising 6% to 7%.

The Bull Battles Back: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets

As we start the second half of 2022, we remain disciplined by looking at stocks and sectors in which we have confidence. Stocks took a beating in the first half, and at times like this, investing principles are critical. We focus on fundamentals, diverse portfolios, strong managements, and growth stocks trading at reasonable prices. This week we look at Industrials, having examined Basic Materials last week. These are perhaps the two least flashy sectors -- and while Basic Materials and Industrials may seem boring, we don't consider the stocks on this week's list to be dull. The companies we've selected within Industrials have solid fundamentals and growth outlooks. Challenges in the supply chain persist, but have eased, and the U.S. trade deficit signaled some shifting in the last report. Exports rose 1.2% in May to $255 billion. This is a great opportunity for U.S. companies, as international buyers look towards American products. The Industrials sector accounts for 8% of the S&P 500, and includes industries such as aerospace and defense, construction and building products, heavy equipment and machinery, and transportation. Over the past five years, the sector weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think investors should Over-Weight the sector and consider allocating about 8% of their diversified portfolios to stocks in the group. The sector is slightly outperforming the S&P 500 thus far in 2022, with a loss of 16.5% compared to the S&P's loss of 18%. The following are some of our BUY-rated Industrials companies, all of which are rated BUY, have a Financial Strength rating of Medium-High or higher, and pay a dividend. We feel these companies are best in class for the sector.

The stock market opens Monday looking for a fresh start in May and any crumbs of positive news. The big event of the week is on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve announces its next monetary policy move. Most economists see that move as a 50-basis-point rate hike. Over the weekend, Berkshire Hathaway reported earnings and hosted its annual meeting with famed CEO Warren Buffett. More big earnings and economic reports are coming this week, including the jobs report for April. More than 1,600 public companies will report on their last quarter. The range and number of companies will give more data points on how different sectors are weathering the many external factors out there pressuring valuations, including - the war in Ukraine, inflation, and rising interest rates. The stock market carnage in April was swift, decisive, and severe. The Nasdaq now has lost all gains since 2008. The Dow and S&P are at their lowest levels since March 2020. In April, the Dow Jones Industrial average dropped -4.9%, the S&P 500 fell -8.8%, with the Nasdaq Composite again hit hardest losing -13%. Year-to-date the Dow is down -9.3%, the S&P 500 is further in correction territory, off -13.3%, and the Nasdaq is in bear territory, down -21.2%. Breaking down the sectors, only two of the eleven broad S&P categories are in the green for 2022. Here are the results so far year-to-date: Basic Materials -6%, Energy +35%, Healthcare -8%, Industrials -10%, Consumer Staples +0.7%, Utilities -0.5%, Financials -12%, Communication Services -26%, Information Technology -19%, Real Estate -10%, Consumer Discretionary -21%. It's been a rough start to 2022.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

After numerous weeks featuring a plateau in insider sentiment (as corporate executives, directors, and beneficial owners were assessing the initial behavior of stocks in 2022), sentiment signals became very clear this week. Across all exchanges over the past week, the one-week sell/buy ratios from Vickers Stock Research have moved deeply into bullish territory.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Over-Weight. After enduring the challenges of the pandemic, the cyclical stocks in the Industrial sector appear well-positioned within the changing political environment. Specifically, we believe that Industrial stocks will benefit from enhanced infrastructure investment and more-lenient trade policies during the Biden administration. The Industrial sector accounts for 8% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 9%-10% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery, and electrical equipment. The sector is underperforming the market thus far in 2021, with a gain of 13.5%. It also underperformed in 2020, with a gain of 9.0%, and slightly underperformed in 2019, with a gain of 26.8%. Here are some of our top picks, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

Over the weekend, the House of Representatives approved the largest public works bill since the 1950s. The bipartisan trillion-dollar bill, which was passed by the Senate in August, now goes to President Biden's desk for signing. The plan focuses on improving the country's infrastructure, from roads and bridges to water systems and electricity grids. It also targets the auto industry, with a focus on electric vehicles and charging stations. In the power sector, Biden's goal is to achieve a carbon-free power industry by 2035. To improve energy efficiency in buildings, he is looking to retrofit four million buildings in the four years. Elsewhere, business Services companies also stand to benefit; bond issuance should pick up given that the infrastructure spending plan will be financed at least in part by bonds; and payroll companies could get a boost processing more paychecks as the infrastructure plan creates "millions of good paying jobs." All-in-all, some of the companies that we think may benefit include the following.

Stocks rose strongly on Thursday as investors weighed new GDP and employment data along with 3Q earnings reports from a range of major companies. The Commerce Department said that 3Q GDP rose just 2.0%, down from 6.7% in 2Q and below the Reuters consensus of 2.7%. First-time unemployment claims fell to a new pandemic-era low of 281,000, down from 291,000 a week earlier and below the consensus forecast of 288,000. Continuing claims dropped to 2.243 million from 2.480 million a week earlier, and were also below consensus. The Dow rose 0.68%, the S&P 0.98%, and the Nasdaq 1.39%. Crude oil rose to $83 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1800 per ounce.

The stock market was flat to down last week as positive earnings surprises proved to be baked-in. Tech stocks modestly underperformed blue chips. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 149 points, or 0.42%. The S&P 500 was down 0.54%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.71%. For the week, the DJIA was down 126 points, or 0.36%, the S&P 500 was down 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.11%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 14.14%, the S&P 500 is up 17.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 13.85%.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning, led by a sharp drop in large Tech stocks. On the economic front, the Commerce Department said that U.S. factory orders rose 1.1% in March, up from a 0.5% decline in February but below the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.3% growth. The Commerce Department also reported that the U.S. trade deficit rose 5.6% to an all-time high of $74.4 billion in March on strong growth in imports. The Dow fell 0.9%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 2.5%. Crude oil traded near $65 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1794 per ounce.

This edition features where to look for infrastructure opportunities; the upcoming Berkshire meeting; an earnings roundup; and notes from Sage Group, Caterpillar, and General Dynamics.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Over-Weight. After enduring the challenges of the pandemic, the cyclical stocks in the sector appear well positioned within the changing political environment. Specifically, we believe that Industrial stocks will benefit from enhanced infrastructure investment and more-lenient trade policies during the Biden administration. The Industrial sector accounts for 8.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 9%-10% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. The sector is outperforming the market thus far in 2021. It underperformed in 2020, with a gain of 9.0%, and slightly underperformed in 2019, with a gain of 26.8%. Here are some of our top Industrial picks, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

President Joe Biden is preparing to announce an infrastructure-rebuilding plan that he estimates will create up to 10 million clean energy jobs. The following areas of the economy stand to benefit from the government spending, which could total as much as $4 trillion. The first element of the plan is improving the country's infrastructure, from roads and bridges to water systems and electricity grids.

This edition features a grocery opportunity; a midstream shift into petrochemicals; a new look at Caterpillar; and notes from Colfax, Eurofins, and Redfin.

Stocks rose strongly on Monday morning amid a jump in silver prices that boosted mining stocks and mixed economic data. The Institute for Supply Management said that its national manufacturing index fell to 58.7 in January, down from 60.5 in December and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 60.0. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. construction spending rose 1.0% to an annualized $1.49 trillion in December, above the consensus forecast and the highest level since the start of the series in 2002. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 1.5%, and the Nasdaq 2.1%. Crude oil traded near $53 per barrel, while gold rose $15 to $1866 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday morning amid rising coronavirus cases in the U.S. and Europe and mixed corporate earnings. MasterCard shares fell 7% after the company posted 3Q earnings that were down from the prior year and below the consensus estimate, reflecting the slowdown in travel spending. UPS shares also fell sharply despite better-than-expected third-quarter results Amid the selloff, GE posted a surprise 3Q profit and positive free cash flow, sending the shares up nearly 8%. The Dow fell 3.2%, the S&P 3.1%, and the Nasdaq 3.2%. Crude oil traded near $37 per barrel, while gold fell $34 to $1878 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Market-Weight. While we see pockets of strength in areas such as trucking, and room for a rebound in aerospace-defense, the sector's exposure to the oil patch and weaker manufacturing volume argue for a market-aligned weighting at this time. The Industrial sector accounts for 7.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 7%-9% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. Here are some of our top picks; all are rated BUY at Argus.

Our rating on the Industrial sector is Market-Weight. While we see pockets of strength in areas such as trucking, and room for a rebound in aerospace-defense, the sector's exposure to the oil patch and weaker manufacturing volume argue for a market-aligned weighting at this time. The Industrial sector accounts for 7.9% of S&P 500 market capitalization. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 7% to 12%. We think that investors should allocate 7%-9% of their diversified portfolios to the group. The sector includes industries such as transportation, aerospace & defense, heavy machinery and electrical equipment. Here are some of our top picks; all are rated BUY at Argus.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning amid new manufacturing data, a range of 2Q earnings reports, and increased U.S.-China tensions related to the potential sale of TikTok's U.S. operations. The Commerce Department said that June factory orders rose 6.2%, down from 7.7% in May but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 5.0% growth. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $41.50 per barrel, while gold rose $26 to $2012 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning amid new manufacturing data, a range of 2Q earnings reports, and increased U.S.-China tensions related to the potential sale of TikTok's U.S. operations. The Commerce Department said that June factory orders rose 6.2%, down from 7.7% in May but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 5.0% growth. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $41.50 per barrel, while gold rose $26 to $2012 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.