This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Monday Tee Up: Is Inflation Still Tracking Lower?

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered thus far in 2023, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Equinix Inc (EQIX); Expedia Group Inc (EXPE); American Intl Grp In (AIG); Netflix Inc (NFLX) and the Focus List deletions are Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG); Comcast Corp (CMCSA); ProLogis (PLD); Royal Caribbean Group (RCL).

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stock rose on Thursday on optimism that rate hikes may be over. The Commerce Department said that in September, new orders for U.S. manufactured goods rose 2.8% to $601.5 billion following a 1.0% increase in August. On Friday morning, investors will be looking at the jobs report for October. On the earnings front, Apple reported after the bell. Although the company beat consensus it issued a cautious outlook. The S&P 500 rose 1.9%, the Dow 1.7% and the Nasdaq was up 1.8%. Crude oil rose nearly 1% to $82 per barrel, while gold traded near $1991 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional stock ownership trends. Institutions must file a Form 13F to report their holdings, and it is due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters. So these forms have now come in from 2Q23. We like to review the 13Fs of major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others, in order to determine their core holdings and new purchases. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Activists have made progress in the past year with high-profile investments into companies such as Fedex and Union Pacific. According to Vickers, here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, as well as other high-profile money managers such as Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway and Ken Griffin of Citadel Advisors LLC.

The stock market sometimes gives a warning after a large move higher, gets everyone believing that a pullback has finally arrived, and then regroups for a couple of days before the rug is pulled out yet again. On July 27, we saw a pretty ugly reversal in the major indices that looked like the start of a much-anticipated reset. That was not to be, however, with stocks broadly higher on July 28.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered thus far in 2023, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered so far in 2023, but gains have been driven largely by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise interest rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? Perhaps not yet. We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.8% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods. We have designed a portfolio of companies followed by Argus Research analysts that are BUY-rated and have impressive Min Vol characteristics of low beta, high yield, high market cap, strong balance sheets, and low risk profiles. Some of the stocks featured in the portfolio are listed below.

In this edition, streaming services changing their channels; BRP looks promising; China's AI is calling; and Autoliv, Sirius XM, and American Express.

In this edition, valuations attractive for media firms; Europe's equity market outlook; raising our expectations on Broadcom; and Chr. Hansen, TBP Group, and BorgWarner.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Thus far in 2023, market bulls are boasting about first-half S&P 500 returns that may top 15%. No one is very focused on the broad market index's 1.6% current yield. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. In 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Fed hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

Dividend growth is among our most important themes for 2023, and stretches across industries. We think companies that raise their dividends consistently at a double-digit rate are sending off three important signals amid the recent market volatility: 1) the company's balance sheet is strong enough to pay a dividend; 2) management is clearly focused on providing shareholder returns; and 3) management is confident enough in the near-term outlook to raise the payout aggressively. This third factor is especially important during periods of economic weakness and an outright earnings recession. Here are stocks that meet our double-digit dividend test and are on the Argus BUY List. They are also holdings in our Dividend Growth Separately Managed Account and in the Dividend Growers Total Return Trust, sponsored by SmartTrust.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Argus' Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

We think the Federal Reserve is done with its rate-hike campaign, after lifting the federal funds rate from a rock bottom 0.0% to the current level of 5.0%-5.25%, which is currently above the core PCE inflation rate of 4.6%. Yes, the Fed finally is ahead of the inflation curve. Of course, the central bank's goal is to reduce inflation to 2.0%, so we think that it will keep short-term rates high through 2023 and that inflation will continue to fall. But high rates do more than curb inflation -- they also slow the economy and can even tip it into recession. Right now, the inverted status of the yield curve (short-term rates are higher than long-term rates) signals that the bond market expects a recession in the quarters ahead. The widely watched Treasury 2-year/10-year spread is inverted, as is the 3-month/10-year. This type of inversion has preceded the last four recessions. The economy is currently benefiting from a robust employment environment and is in a growth mode. It may be able to handle higher rates for a few more months. However, the high rates already have stalled growth in the housing and manufacturing sectors, and the consumer could be next. The silver lining of the Fed's rate hikes is that it has now replenished its empty tool kit and can lower interest rates to re-stimulate growth. We expect that to happen next year. For more information on specific strategies to take advantage of the interest-rate environment, see our Fixed Income Strategies report.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Alcon Inc. (ALC); Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA); Comcast Corp (CMCSA); ProLogis (PLD) and the Focus List deletions are AstraZeneca PLC (AZN); Omnicom Group, Inc. (OMC); Target Corp (TGT); Equinix Inc (EQIX).

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Monday Tee Up: The Fed, Jobs, Earnings

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

As of this writing, the S&P 500 and the S&P 100 are up 6% so far in 2023, the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are higher by 11%, the S&P 400 has popped 8%, and the Russell 2000 has gained 9%. So the overall market is off to a good start (especially after 2022). All those indices have jumped above their 200-day averages, though some by only a very minor amount. All but the S&P 100 also have broken their bear-market trendlines -- but, again, by very small margins.

In the eight weeks before the start of earnings season, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research was consistently positive. On a scale where any reading below 2.00 is bullish, Vickers' Total One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio never got higher than 1.99 and was as low as 1.06. That resulted in a peak bullish Total Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio of 1.71 on October 15, just as the earnings onslaught began.

Stocks fell on Friday morning after a better than expected July employment report raised prospects for continued aggressive Fed rate hikes. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 528,000 nonfarm payroll jobs last month, up from a revised 398,000 in June and well above the consensus forecast of 250,000. The official unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%, below the consensus of 3.6%. Wage growth was higher than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 0.5% from the prior month and 5.2% from the prior year, both above consensus estimates. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $90.50 per barrel, while gold fell $15 to $1792 per ounce.

In this edition, Examining the All-Important ERP Ecosystem, China Real Estate Prospects, the State of Comcast, and Fortune Brands, T-Mobile, and Teradyne.

Stocks fell again on Friday morning, adding to Thursday's massive losses, amid growing concerns about the Fed's ability to control inflation, along with the uncertain impact of the war in Ukraine and economic weakness in China. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 428,000 payroll jobs in April, in line with the revised reading for March and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 380,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, just above the consensus forecast of 3.5%. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose to $110.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1891 per ounce.

Stocks edged higher on Tuesday morning after a strong rally on Monday as investors weighed new manufacturing and employment data. The Institute for Supply Management said that its national factory index fell to 57.6 in January, down from 58.8 in December and just above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 57.5. In its JOLTS report, the Labor Department said that job openings rose to 10.925 million at the end of December, up from 10.775 million a month earlier and well above the consensus forecast of 10.3 million. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil fell below $88 per barrel, while gold rose $9 to $1806 per ounce.

This edition features Broadridge's potential, trends in utility companies, new coverage of Datadog, and Eastman, Atlassian, and Comcast.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked stocks into a bear market. Though equities recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did three times in 2021 when stocks dropped 4%-5% in a matter of a few days. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-2.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

The market ain't afraida' no ghosts, and stocks sailed into Halloween weekend flying high on a witch's broom. The S&P 500, assigned to Dracula's coffin in September, rose up to reach an all-time intra-day high at 4,608 on October 29 before finishing the session an all-time closing high of 4,605.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks insider trading and institutional ownership. Form 13-Fs have now come in from 2Q21. We review the 13Fs of major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

The overall volume of insider transactions remains light due to trading restrictions in place during earnings season, but there are some interesting trends in the current data from Vickers Stock Research. And those trends are positive.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked the stock market into a bear market. Though stocks have recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did during two consecutive days in mid-July when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 1,000 points. Yet investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate and can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and are just now coming in from 1Q21. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to Vickers.

Often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market is dividend income, which is an important element of total return. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

The stock market was mixed last week as blue chips outperformed technology stocks. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 229 points, or 0.66%. The S&P 500 was up 0.74% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.88%. For the week, the DJIA rose 2.67%, the S&P rose 1.23%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.51%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 13.63%, the S&P 12.69%, and the Nasdaq 6.70%.

We recently raised our rating on the Communication Services sector to Over-Weight. In this barbell sector, media and entertainment companies should benefit from robust online activity and the reopening of theme parks and movie theaters. Providers of telecom services should benefit from ARPU gains as the 5G rollout gains traction. The style mix of the sector is approximately one-third value and two-thirds growth. The adjusted pro-forma beta is approximately 1.1 (like the old telecoms), while the yield is 0.9% (reflecting the impact of Google and Facebook). The smoothed growth rate is 7% and the P/E ratio is 21x. The sector accounts for 11% of the S&P 500. We think investors should consider allocating 12%-14% of diversified portfolios to the sector. Here are some of our top picks.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and are now coming in from 4Q20. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to Vickers.

The stock market rallied last week, beginning February on a strong note. Tech stocks outperformed blue chips on strong earnings from a handful of megacap technology companies. On Friday, The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.30%, the S&P 500 0.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite 0.57%. For the week, the DJIA climbed 3.89%, the S&P 500 4.65%, and the Nasdaq 6.01%.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and have been processed for 3Q20. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of Activist investors, according to Vickers.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

After three consecutive weeks of surprisingly bearish results, insider sentiment has returned to benign levels. Let's review the data.

Our rating on the Communication Services sector is Over-Weight. While existing pressures on the sector continue, including assaults by regulators on social media companies and intense competition among telecom companies, these concerns have been superseded by COVID-19. In this "barbell" sector, telco giants Verizon and AT&T are now apparent islands of relative stability and secure income. Simultaneously, internet giants Alphabet and Facebook are acting as forums for community concerns about the coronavirus. The style mix of the sector is approximately one-third "value" and two-thirds "growth." The adjusted pro-forma beta is approximately 1.0 (like the old Telecoms), while the yield is 0.9% (reflecting the impact of Google and Facebook). The smoothed growth rate is 7% and the P/E ratio is 21-times. The sector accounts for 11% of the S&P 500. We think investors should consider allocating 12%- 14% of their diversified Portfolios to the sector. Here are some of our top picks.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks finished higher on Thursday, recovering from midday losses, as investors weighed weekly employment data, mixed corporate earnings, and prospects for a new fiscal stimulus package. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 1.186 million, below the consensus of 1.415 million. While this was the lowest weekly reading since March, initial claims still topped 1 million for the 20th straight week. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, fell to 16.107 million from 16.951 million a week earlier. The data came ahead of the government's July employment report on Friday morning. The Reuters consensus calls for the addition of 1.58 million payroll jobs, down sharply from 4.8 million in June, and a drop in the official unemployment rate to 10.5% from 11.1%. The Dow rose 0.68%, the S&P 0.64%, and the Nasdaq 1.00%. Crude oil fell slightly to $42 per barrel, while gold rose $26 to $2075 per ounce.

Stocks finished higher on Thursday, recovering from midday losses, as investors weighed weekly employment data, mixed corporate earnings, and prospects for a new fiscal stimulus package. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 1.186 million, below the consensus of 1.415 million. While this was the lowest weekly reading since March, initial claims still topped 1 million for the 20th straight week. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, fell to 16.107 million from 16.951 million a week earlier. The data came ahead of the government's July employment report on Friday morning. The Reuters consensus calls for the addition of 1.58 million payroll jobs, down sharply from 4.8 million in June, and a drop in the official unemployment rate to 10.5% from 11.1%. The Dow rose 0.68%, the S&P 0.64%, and the Nasdaq 1.00%. Crude oil fell slightly to $42 per barrel, while gold rose $26 to $2075 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.