Make it 16 out of 18 weeks to the upside, as the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) continued to witness relentless buying in the week ended March 1. Stocks were flat until the final two days of that week, when inflation worries were squashed by the January PCE report. It wasn't just stocks that reacted, as metals, oil, and bonds all popped on March 1. Bitcoin surged 21%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower that year. Stocks have recovered and a new bull market has begun, but gains largely have been driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains an issue and no one really knows when the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes such as fixed income and cash. As well, those fixed-income returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current level around 4.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods. Argus has developed a sophisticated approach to Min Vol investing built around our proprietary quality and safety screens. We recently updated our Min-Vol Theme Model Portfolio.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered thus far in 2023, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Here is the list of the Top Picks for 2024 from the Argus team of analysts. The team is deeply experienced, as each analyst has spent ,on average, 25 years on Wall Street and 15 years at Argus Research. As such, our analysts are extremely well-versed in our proprietary fundamental six-point system and the sectors they cover. They also have solid relationships with many of the management teams they cover. But they do not operate in a vacuum. An Investment Policy Committee (IPC) comprised of Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA; President John Eade; Chief Compliance Officer & Senior Financial Analyst Kevin Heal; and Director of Financial Institutions Research Steve Biggar provide macro outlooks for the economy, interest rates, earnings, and the stock market. The IPC reviews all proposed ratings changes. Our list below is organized by sector.

Our analysis of recent data leads us to conclude that key parts of U.S. GDP are still expanding (led by consumer spending), despite the impact of inflation, tight monetary policy, and geopolitics. But growth is not consistent across the economy and, in many cases, growth rates are slowing or choppy. Industrial Production notably declined in September, October, and November. There is a particular divergence between higher-income consumers, who are traveling, dining at restaurants, and splurging on special events, and lower-income households that are feeling pressure because their grocery bill is about 20% above pre-pandemic levels. While the Fed seems to be engineering a soft landing, a recession in 2024 remains possible, though we think the probability is less than 50%. We anticipate that the 4.9% GDP growth in the third quarter will prove to be the high water mark, as tight monetary policy dampens consumer spending in the first half of 2024. Our full-year estimate for 2023 is for 2.8% growth, with 2% growth in 4Q. In 2024, we expect GDP to grow 1.7%. We are forecasting sequential improvement through the year, with 0.7% growth in 1Q ramping to 2.5% growth in 4Q. This assumes inflation continues to fall and the Fed has completed its rate-hike campaign, with easing monetary policy likely beginning in the middle of the year. While 2025 will be the first year of a new presidential term, and the conviviality of the executive and legislative branches is difficult to assess, our initial forecast is for GDP to grow 2.0%. We expect the Fed to be close to meeting its dual mandate, with inflation near its 2% goal and unemployment at approximately 4.1%. We expect the funds rate to decline towards what we believe to be a long-term neutral range of 2.5%-3.0%. Based on median estimates, the Federal Reserve Board members and Bank presidents are anticipating GDP growth of 2.6% for 2023, 1.4% in 2024, and 1.8% in 2025.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning as investors weighed new durable goods and employment data, along with earnings reports from Nvidia, Autodesk, and Deere. The Commerce Department said that capital goods orders fell 5.4% in October, down from a revised 4.0% increase in September, reflecting a sharp decline in aircraft orders. The Reuters consensus estimate had called for a decline of 3.1%. Core capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, fell 0.1% last month after a 0.2% decline in September. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended November 18, below the consensus forecast of 226,000. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil fell sharply to $75 per barrel, while gold traded near $1995 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

We have an Under-Weight rating on the Energy Sector. Companies in the sector saw their earnings crushed in the last quarter and things looks bad for this quarter as well. Still, there are individual names we like and there is a trend of consolidation in the sector, all of which has piqued our interest. Exxon Mobil is buying Pioneer Natural and Chevron is buying Hess. We think this might prompt other big oil companies to look around as well. We think Conoco Phillips could be in the market to scoop up a smaller company (possibly Devon, EOG, or Marathon Oil). We don't think there will be any regulatory hurdles, as consolidation could lead oil prices to retreat, which would help the overall U.S. economy as inflation is still high in many areas. So it would seem to be in the government's interest to allow these deals to go through. Energy accounts for only about 3%-4% of total S&P 500 capitalization, but the sector often acts as a hedge to the broader market -- so having exposure to the group is important. Energy tends to zigs when the S&P 500 zags. Indeed, in 2022, the S&P 500 declined 19.4% while the Energy sector advanced 59%. In the August-October period of 2023, the S&P 500 fell more than 8% while the Energy sector declined only 3%. The following is a list of names we like overall in both Oil and Energy.

The Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) fell slightly under their 50-day averages late in the trading week ended August 11, which we don't consider a break of this key short-term support. The last time the indices were below their 50-day was in March. They have dipped 5% from closing highs on July 18 and also are slightly below trendline support off March lows.

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Stocks fell on Friday morning, led by declines in the Financial and Consumer Discretionary sectors. Consumer sentiment data was weak. The University of Michigan said that its sentiment index fell to 57.7 in May, down from 63.5 in April and the lowest reading since last November. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil fell slightly to $70.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $2017 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

So far this year, the Dow is up about 2%, the S&P is higher by around 8%, and the Nasdaq is up some 15%. That has caught the attention of investors who suffered through a very difficult 2022. Also so far this year, insider sentiment, gleaned from weekly data compiled by Vickers Stock Research, had not offered any indication that stock prices were out over their skis. But the most recent data from Vickers has caught our attention, and suggests a little consolidation may be in order.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 (SPX) cleared its bear-market trendline, which has been in place since early January 2022. We do not consider this a breakout just yet, as the SPX has retaken this key piece of resistance for only one day and by only one percent. The next important hurdle is the prior high in December at 4,100. A break of that level will officially give the index a higher high and higher low for the first time since the broader decline started.

Monday Tee Up: Retail and Tech Earnings, FOMC Minutes

Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning following earnings from Walmart and new housing market data. Walmart shares rose more than 5% after the retailer topped second-quarter earnings expectations and raised its full-year guidance. The results came after the company sharply lowered its guidance in late July. The Commerce Department said that U.S. housing starts fell 9.6% to an annualized 1.446 million in July, below the Reuters consensus of 1.540 million. Building permits also fell 1.3% to an annualized 1.674 million. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%. Crude oil fell 1% to $88.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1794 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning, as gains in most sectors were offset by sharp declines in Communication Services. Snap shares fell more than 35% after the social media company missed its already lowered revenue guidance. Verizon also fell 6% after posting below-consensus EPS and lowering its full-year guidance. On the positive side, American Express rose nearly 5% after reporting better-than-expected 2Q results. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P was flat, and the NASDAQ fell 0.4%. Crude oil rose slightly to $97 per barrel, while gold traded near $1730 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning, as gains in most sectors were offset by sharp declines in Communication Services. Snap shares fell more than 35% after the social media company missed its already lowered revenue guidance. Verizon also fell 6% after posting below-consensus EPS and lowering its full-year guidance. On the positive side, American Express rose nearly 5% after reporting better-than-expected 2Q results. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P was flat, and the NASDAQ fell 0.4%. Crude oil rose slightly to $97 per barrel, while gold traded near $1730 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fell sharply on Wednesday morning amid more earnings reports from major retailers. Target shares plunged 24% after the company reported much weaker than expected 1Q earnings and warned of further pressure from rising fuel and freight costs. Lowe's shares also fell, despite above-consensus earnings, as investors focused on the company's disappointing comps sales. The Dow fell 1.9%, the S&P 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 2.3%. Crude oil fell 1% to $111.50 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1812 per ounce.

We recently raised our rating on the Energy sector to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. Already strong demand for petroleum products (related to global reopening) is now exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, which has led to broad sanctions on Russia and may exclude this major supplier from the global energy markets. Although we expect other counties to add to supply, we expect energy prices to remain elevated at least through year-end. Energy accounts for 3.6% of S&P 500 market cap; over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 2% to 10%. We think investors should consider allocating 4%-5% of diversified portfolios to the group. The sector is outperforming thus far in 2022, with a gain of 32.3%. It also outperformed in 2021, with a gain of 47.7%. It underperformed in 2020, with a loss of 37.3%, and in 2019, with a gain of 7.6%. Here are some of the Energy sector companies that are on our BUY List. Some also are featured in our model portfolios (Growth & Income, Equity Income, Growth, and Institutional) and in our Focus List.

This edition features a roundup of analyst research on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Campbell, JD.com, and Guidewire.

Stocks traded higher on Tuesday morning after reversing early losses. Pfizer shares fell 4% after the company projected lower-than-expected full-year sales of its COVID vaccine and antiviral pills. Peloton, which has been the subject of buyout speculation, jumped 29% after announcing a CEO change as well as significant job cuts. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 1.0%. Crude oil fell to $89 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1827 per ounce.

Oil prices are near $85 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude and continue a climb that began in April 2020, when the price was below $20. We think these relatively high prices will support the Energy sector, which has outperformed the market this year, in the near term. Within the group, we favor companies with a high exposure to U.S. production, as well as those with clean balance sheets and a history of growing dividends. Here are the Energy companies that are on our Focus List or that are used in our model portfolios.

The stock market moved higher last week during a busy week that consisted of a steady stream of earnings reports and election results. Tech stocks far outperformed blue chips for a third straight week. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 204 points, or 0.56%. The S&P 500 was up 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.20%. For the week, the DJIA was up 508 points, or 1.42%, the S&P 500 was up 2.00%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 3.05%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 18.69%, the S&P 500 is up 25.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 23.92%.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning following a better-than-expected July employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. added 943,000 payroll jobs in July, up from a revised 938,000 in June and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 865,000. The reading was the strongest since August 2020. The official unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, down from 5.9% in June and below the consensus of 5.7%. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel, while gold fell $44 to $1765 per ounce.

With Treasury yields falling back toward the lower end of their three-month range (in a move that started in mid-May), the S&P Technology Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) as well as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have risen from their recent slumber and are again demonstrating market leadership. The interest-rate scare for some of the mega-cap Tech stocks began early this year, though others started to lag back in 2020.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The stock market was volatile last week as inflation concerns whipsawed stocks, ultimately pushing them lower on the week. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 361 points, or 1.06%. The S&P 500 was up 1.49%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.32%. For the week, the DJIA was down 397 points, or 1.14%, the S&P 500 was down 1.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.34%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 12.34%, the S&P 500 is up 11.12%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 4.20%.

Wednesday was another tough day for stocks, making it three in a row. The S&P 500 lost 2.2%, the Nasdaq fell 2.7%, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gave up 2.6%, the S&P 400 was down 3.1%, the Russell 2000 lost 3.2%, and the Dow Industrials forfeited 2%. NYSE market breadth was ugly at -2,475.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose almost 5% on Wednesday, finishing at $63.12/barrel, back above its 50-day moving average. This follows several weeks of consolidation and shrinking volatility. Since the peak near $68 on March 8, crude oil completed a head-and-shoulders top, but (bullishly) did not see any downside follow-through.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This is an absolutely crazy market! The growth indices were right on the edge of breaking down further after declines of almost 11%. But we got a little relief from long rates, so someone lit some Trinitrotoluene. (OK, we didn't know what TNT stood for either.)

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

A little over a year ago, we asked the following question. Does the stock market have a governor? Since breaking out to all-time highs and completing a cup-with-handle in November, the S&P 500 has been glued to its upper weekly Bollinger Band (BB). BBs are made up of three lines: a simple moving average (usually 20-period), an upper band, and a lower band. The upper and lower bands are two standard deviations (plus or minus) from the 20-period moving average.