Stocks were modestly lower on Wednesday morning after revised GDP data. The second estimate of U.S. GDP was revised down to 3.2% from the advance estimate of 3.3%. The update reflects upward revisions in state and local government spending and consumer spending, which were more than offset by a reduction in private inventory investment. The S&P 500 was down less than 0.1%, the Dow fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq lost 0.3%. Crude oil traded just above $78 per barrel and gold was down $2 to $2042 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Monday morning, led by gains in the Technology and Communication Services sectors. Microsoft shares rose on news that Sam Altman, the former head of OpenAI, would join the company and lead a new advanced AI research team. On Tuesday, investors will weigh earnings from chipmaker Nvidia as well as the Fed's latest meeting minutes. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil rose $2 to $78 per barrel while gold traded near $1976 per ounce.

Stocks were mostly lower on Friday morning following higher-than-expected producer price data. The Labor Department said that its producer price index for final demand rose 0.8% from the prior year in July, up from 0.2% in June and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 0.7% growth. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, the core PPI rose 2.7% from the prior year, in line with the increase in June. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan said that its preliminary consumer sentiment index slipped to 71.2 in August, down slightly from 71.6 in June but in line with the consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.9%. Crude oil rose less than 1% to $83.50 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1949 per ounce.

Monday Tee Up: Is Inflation Slowing?

With a rally off the October bottom, the S&P 500 (SPX) at its February 2 high had retraced (using intraday prices) slightly more than 50% of the bear market. The NYSE Composite, the Dow Jones Industrials, (DJIA) and the S&P MidCap 400 (MDY) all have recaptured over 61.8% of their respective bear markets. At its high on February 2, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) had seen a 38.2% retracement, while the Nasdaq Composite hasn't quite reached that minimum takeback.

Stocks gave up most of their early gains on Thursday morning as investors weighed earnings from Disney and PepsiCo, along with weekly employment data. Disney shares rose after the company reported better-than-expected fiscal 1Q results and announced substantial cost cuts, including the elimination of 7,000 jobs. The company is also likely to restore its dividend by the end of the year. PepsiCo shares rose following above-consensus 4Q earnings and the announcement of a 10% dividend hike. The Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil fell 1% to $77.50 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1885 per ounce.

Chartists have spent many hours over many years looking for the Holy Grail of technical indicators -- and most have realized that one does not exist. Surprisingly, many of the best indicators are simple -- and why they work so well is often easily explainable. That brings us to the moving average crossover, which is a mere two averages that give buy and sell signals when they cross. We've tested many combinations -- and while some are very good, they all have their faults.

Monday Tee Up: Jobs, Inflation, and GDP

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks rose on Friday morning amid more signs of moderating inflation, as average U.S. gas prices fell below $4 per gallon for the first time since early March. Consumer sentiment data was also positive. The University of Michigan said that its preliminary August consumer sentiment index rose to 55.1, up from 51.5 a month earlier and above the Reuters consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 1.0%, and the Nasdaq 1.4%. Crude oil fell 2% to $92.50 per barrel, while gold rose $4 to $1811 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning following hotter-than-expected inflation data. The Labor Department reported that consumer prices rose 8.3% year-over-year in April, down only slightly from 8.5% in March and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 8.1% growth. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 6.2% last month, down from 6.5% in March but above the consensus forecast of 6.0%. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%. Crude oil rose more than 5% to $105.50 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1851 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Linde Plc (LIN); Sysco Corp. (SYY); Target Corp (TGT); Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (VRTX) and the Focus List deletions are DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD); Zoetis Inc (ZTS); Lululemon Athletica inc. (LULU); Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN).

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday morning on continued Ukraine tensions, as the U.S. and NATO disputed claims by Russia that it was withdrawing its troops from positions near the Ukrainian border. Investors also weighed higher-than-expected weekly unemployment claims and lower-than-expected housing starts. On the earnings front, Walmart shares rose after the retailer posted strong fiscal 4Q22 results and raised its FY23 EPS guidance. The Dow fell 1.2%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Crude oil fell 3% to $91 per barrel, while gold jumped $27 to $1898 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Mid Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. The market capitalization range for U.S. mid-caps typically falls between $1 billion and $8 billion and represents 20% of the total capitalization of the U.S. equity market.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning, a day after the Federal Reserve announced the start of its $15 billion per month tapering program. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also indicated that the Fed would prefer to wait for the completion of the tapering plan, and further improvement in the labor market, before considering higher interest rates. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.6%. Crude oil rose slightly to $81 per barrel, while gold traded near $1796 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

The U.S. housing market has been a positive contributer to the economic recovery from the pandemic, though some of the statistics have fallen from recent highs and we no longer anticipate the sector will be a strong driver of above-trend GDP growth. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales fell 2% in August from July, to a 5.88 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (still well above the 3.9 million rate in May 2020 but down from the 6.7 million rate in October 2020). The Census Bureau reported that new one-family homes were selling at a 740,000/year rate in August -- again, up from the 582,000 rate at the pandemic depths, but down from 993,000 in January 2021. Meanwhile, the story is similar in a leading indicator for the industry, housing permits. While most of these indicators have cooled, housing prices have not. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for July 2021 showed that prices gained 19.7% year-over-year (the highest gain in 15 years). Inventories have risen along with prices. On the other side of the pandemic, we expect that demand for homes -- with yards between neighbors and plenty of space -- will be solid, supporting domestic economic growth. But the strong growth of the past few quarters should cool.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Director of Research Kelleher typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD); Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT); Twilio Inc (TWLO); Corning, Inc. (GLW) and the Focus List deletions are LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB); American Electric Power Co Inc (AEP); International Business Machine (IBM); T-Mobile US Inc (TMUS); Restaurant Brands Intl In (QSR).

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks rose on Thursday morning following new weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 385,000 for the week ended July 31, down from 399,000 a week earlier but slightly above the Bloomberg consensus of 383,000. The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade deficit rose 6.7% to a record $75.7 billion in June, driven by a sharp increase in imports. The consensus forecast was $74.1 billion. The Dow rose 0.6%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil rose to $69 per barrel, while gold traded near $1805 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and are just now coming in from 1Q21. We like to review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved in recent years and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to Vickers.

Stocks recouped some of their recent losses on Thursday as investors sought buying opportunities and looked past more signs of rising inflation. The Labor Department reported that its producer price index rose 0.6% in April, above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 0.3%. Producer prices also rose 6.2% from the prior year, above the 5.8% consensus. Meanwhile, first-time jobless claims fell to 473,000, down from the prior week and below the consensus forecast of 490,000. Continuing claims also fell to 3.655 million, down from 3.7 million a week earlier. The Dow rose 1.29%, the S&P 1.22%, and the Nasdaq 0.72%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $64 per barrel, while gold rose $4 to $1827 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This edition features where to look for infrastructure opportunities; the upcoming Berkshire meeting; an earnings roundup; and notes from Sage Group, Caterpillar, and General Dynamics.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and are now coming in from 4Q20. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to Vickers.

The stock market performed well last week, touching fresh highs with no clear-cut catalysts aside from relatively strong earnings. Tech stocks outperformed blue chips, though small-cap stocks outperformed both. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 28 points, or 0.09%. The S&P 500 was up 0.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased 0.50%. For the week, the DJIA climbed 310 points, or 1.00%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.23%, and the Nasdaq Composite led the way, climbing 1.73%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 2.78%, the S&P 500 is up 4.76%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 9.37%.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning despite the still uncertain outcome of a much closer-than-expected presidential election. Still, by mid-morning, Joe Biden had opened narrow leads in the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin and stood to benefit from as yet uncounted mail-in ballots in these and other key states. Wall Street also focused on the Senate, where Republicans were likely to remain in control with a narrow majority. The Dow rose 2.1%, the S&P 2.6%, and the Nasdaq 3.7%. Crude oil traded near $39 per barrel, while gold fell $8 to $1903 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.