U.S. markets rose on Thursday morning, extending yesterday's gains, following the Fed's rate decision and commentary by Chairman Powell. Leading into the meeting, investors were focused on the dot plot, which in December forecast three rate cuts this year. Yesterday's chart also included an estimated three rate cuts. Dovish commentary by Fed Chair Powell, who indicated that current rates were likely at their peak for the current cycle, resonated with investors. Almost 70% of investors are now looking for the first rate cut in June. On the employment front, initial jobless claims were 210,000 for the week, down 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. Ongoing unemployment was 1,807,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. In other news, the Justice Department filed a federal antitrust lawsuit against Apple (AAPL). The Dow was up 0.8%, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% and the Nasdaq gained 0.7%. Crude oil traded above $80 per barrel, while gold rose $12 to $2173 per ounce.

With major stock indices pushing higher and higher (aided by a pivot on interest rates last week from the Federal Reserve), corporate insiders remain disinterested in acquiring shares -- perhaps because of a perceived toppy market, or seasonals, or year-end positioning, or in advance of earnings season. Whatever the reason, the current weekly insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research generates one-week sell/buy ratios that are aligned in the bearish territory that starts at 2.50 and moves higher, with Vickers' NYSE one-week ratio at 4.01, the Nasdaq ratio at 3.48, and the Total ratio (all exchanges) at 3.53.

Inflation, a possible recession, higher interest rates, and higher gas prices. Consumers don't want to hear it. They want to go out and eat. They were denied that experience during the pandemic and are making up for lost time with "revenge eating" and "revenge travel." In the September retail sales report that caused a fuss last week, the category of "Food Services and Drinking Places" was ranked number one for growth, up nearly 12% in the first nine months of 2023 (compared to the same period a year ago). No other category was even close. For sure, the restaurant sector has some headwinds. One is chicken prices. The price of chicken is at an all-time high, at $1.96 per pound, up 33% in August 2023 from two years ago. Of course, chicken is one of the most-popular menu items across the range of restaurants -- from fast food to casual dining to formal dining. Restaurants, as best they can, try to pass on higher prices to patrons. But at some point, patrons won't bite (pun intended.) Next to consider are obesity drugs. Some analysts worry that these now-popular drugs will curb appetites and stop consumers from snacking. Argus' restaurant analyst John Staszak, CFA, is keeping an eye on the impact of these obesity drugs. But based on their high prices and possible safety issues, John sees only a slightly negative impact for now. Argus has an Over-Weight rating on the Consumer Discretionary sector. Here are some Argus BUY-rated restaurant stocks that might well show EPS growth over the next year.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

For more than 40 years, long-term fixed-income investors have demanded a yield premium to the underlying inflation rate in order to maintain purchasing power. The "gap" between the 10-year yield and the CPI (ex-food and energy) has averaged 230 basis points (bps) since 1980. The widest gap was in August 1983, at 875 bps, when investors had serious doubts about whether the Federal Reserve could bring down runaway inflation. In recent years, though, the gap has been negative or inverted due to extraordinary global demand for the safety of Treasury securities as well as to quantitative easing programs that the central bank has implemented in order to avert economic catastrophe. The gap reached a historic low of -450 bps in February 2022. Of course, that's just before the Federal Reserve embarked on its rate-hike program that has taken the federal funds rate from 0.0% to the current level of 5.38%. The economy has held up, the Fed is now reducing its balance sheet, and long-term bond yields have risen in response. Currently, the yield gap is just about break-even. To get a sense of how high the 10-year yield might go, adding 230 bps to the current inflation rate arrives at a target 10-year bond yield of 6.6%. But going back to 2000, the more-recent history, the gap is only 90 basis points. That takes the target to 5.2%.

Stocks fell on Thursday, extending yesterday's Fed-driven selloff. While the central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday, the 'dot-plot' expectations of Fed officials pointed to another rate hike later this year and indicated that rate cuts next year would be slower than previously expected. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 20,000 to 201,000 for the week ended September 16. Turning to stocks, shares of Cisco are down after the announcement the company will purchase cybersecurity and data analytics firm Splunk (SPLK) for around $28 billion in cash. The Dow fell 1.1%, the S&P 1.6%, and the Nasdaq 1.8%. Crude oil fell 1% to $89.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1940 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The financial, commodity, and currency markets had a bit of a wild day on Thursday, something not seen often when there aren't any major headlines. Stocks finished lower after a fairly ugly reversal, and bond yields across the curve took off early with the 5- and 10-year Treasury yield rising all day. The U.S. Dollar Index rose sharply in the morning and held its gains for the rest of the day, while gold and silver were whacked early and saw no recovery.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The major indices traced out “island reversals” last week, typically a bearish short- to intermediate-term price pattern. An island reversal is a short-term reversal pattern that forms with two overlapping gaps. A bearish island reversal forms with a gap up, short consolidation, and then a gap down.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Thus far in 2023, market bulls are boasting about first-half S&P 500 returns that may top 15%. No one is very focused on the broad market index's 1.6% current yield. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. In 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Fed hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning as investors weighed more congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. On Wednesday, Mr. Powell told the House Financial Services Committee that the central bank still had 'a long way to go' in the battle against inflation, and indicated that additional rate hikes were likely this year. Meanwhile, the Bank of England surprised investors by raising its main interest rate a greater-than-expected 50 basis points, to 5.0%. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits held steady at 264,000 for the week ended June 17, slightly above the Reuters consensus forecast of 260,000. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%. Crude oil fell nearly 4% to less than $70 per barrel while gold traded near $1927 per ounce.

Dividend growth is among our most important themes for 2023, and stretches across industries. We think companies that raise their dividends consistently at a double-digit rate are sending off three important signals amid the recent market volatility: 1) the company's balance sheet is strong enough to pay a dividend; 2) management is clearly focused on providing shareholder returns; and 3) management is confident enough in the near-term outlook to raise the payout aggressively. This third factor is especially important during periods of economic weakness and an outright earnings recession. Here are stocks that meet our double-digit dividend test and are on the Argus BUY List. They are also holdings in our Dividend Growth Separately Managed Account and in the Dividend Growers Total Return Trust, sponsored by SmartTrust.

The FOMC held the fed funds rate steady on Wednesday, its first pause since the central bank started raising rates on March 17, 2022. The current range is 5% to 5.25%, with the Fed's dot-plot showing they may lift rates by another 50 basis points (bps) to a range of 5.5% to 5.75%. In essence, the Fed signaled that the monetary tightening cycle is not over, and more hikes are on the table in 2023.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning amid more signs of cooling inflation as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's policy statement this afternoon. While the Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, investors will be focusing on the central bank's economic commentary and prospects for rate hikes at subsequent meetings. The Labor Department said that U.S. producer prices rose 1.1% from the prior year in May, down from 2.3% in April. The reading was the lowest since December 2020 and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.5% growth. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. Crude oil traded near $70 per barrel, while gold rose $12 to $1971 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning as investors awaited new developments in the debt ceiling negotiations in Washington. President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy are expected to meet later today, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated that the U.S. faced a June 1 deadline for avoiding default. In corporate news, Micron Technology fell 3% after the Chinese government banned the import of the company's memory chips into China on cybersecurity grounds. Meta Platforms shares rose 2% despite a $1.3 billion fine from the European Union for privacy violations and the unlawful transfer of EU user data to the U.S. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $71.50 per barrel while gold fell $6 to $1976 per ounce.

The S&P 500 (SPX) is struggling to break resistance in the 4,200 region (in hopes of getting back to the August 2022 highs and the key 61.8% retracement of the bear market just above 4,300). We keep coming back to the potential pattern off the October lows. Remember that developing patterns and formations mean absolutely nothing until they are completed and confirmed. So the grizzled chartist must never jump the gun, as failed patterns are just as important -- if not more important -- than completed chart formations.

Our list this week identifies companies that received an Argus target-price increase in April. As the stock prices of these companies approached their target prices, Argus analysts saw those prices going even higher. We are in the thick of earnings season and our analysts are scouring quarterly reports to evaluate how the companies they follow are doing. With economists busy analyzing economic data to determine whether the economy might slip into recession, companies have been attending to their businesses. Some are weathering current economic conditions better than others. The economic pressures are real - including rising interest rates, inflation, the strong dollar, and wavering consumer spending patterns. These stressors are on top of normal competitive pressures, as companies fight to sell their products and services, outmaneuver peers, and make profits. Looking back at April, our analysts found companies where the business outlook is solid - and went through the mechanics of our valuation framework to adjust target prices upwards. Our framework includes analysis of historical multiples, peer multiples, and future dividends and cash flows. Here are the stocks on which we raised target prices in April. All are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning, led by declines in the Industrial and Energy sectors. Employment data pointed to a cooling labor market. In its monthly JOLTS survey, the Labor Department said that U.S. job openings fell to 9.9 million on the last day of February from a revised 10.6 million a month earlier. The reading was below the Reuters consensus of 10.4 million and the lowest since May 2021. U.S. factory orders also fell 0.7% in February, the second straight monthly decline. The consensus estimate had called for a slightly smaller decline of 0.5%. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $80 per barrel, while gold jumped $39 to $2039 per ounce.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high European inflation or other geopolitical developments. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky, but diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $15 billion to define a SMID stock.

Stocks rose strongly on Thursday morning, a day after the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate, as expected, by 25 basis points. The rally reversed sharp losses on Wednesday. In his post-announcement news conference, Fed Chair Powell again stressed the Fed's commitment to bringing down inflation to its 2% target. He noted that tighter credit conditions would likely allow the Fed to scale back future rate hikes, but dismissed suggestions that it would cut rates later this year. The Dow rose 1.3%, the S&P 1.6%, and the Nasdaq 2.3%. Crude oil rose to $71 per barrel, while gold rose $34 to $1983 per ounce.

Markets Dented but not Downed by Silicon Valley Bank

Stocks rose on Monday morning, led by gains in the Technology and Communication Services sectors. The Conference Board reported that its Leading Economic Index fell 1.0% in December after a 1.1% decline in November. The decline was greater than the Reuters consensus, which called for a drop of 0.7%. Salesforce shares rose 4% on news that activist investor Elliott Management had taken a multibillion dollar stake in the company. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 1.1%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Crude oil traded near $82 per barrel, while gold fell $5 to $1923 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Monday Tee Up: An Elf-Sized Rally?

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky -- and large-caps outperformed SMID stocks in 11 of the 19 years in our test period. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Stocks continued to drop on Thursday morning after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and prospects for additional aggressive rate hikes led to a sharp selloff on Wednesday. Following the expected 75-basis-point rate increase, Mr. Powell reiterated the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% target, and acknowledged that higher interest rates would cause pain for consumers and businesses. The median 'dot-plot' projection from Fed officials also indicated that the federal funds rate could rise to 4.4% by the end of the year, up from a forecast of 3.4% after the June meeting. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Crude oil traded near $84 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1678 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mostly higher on Thursday morning as investors weighed new economic data and a second day of congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The S&P flash U.S. Composite PMI fell to 51.2 in June from a final May reading of 53.6. The manufacturing PMI fell to 52.4, down from 57.0 last month and below the consensus forecast. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.0%. Crude oil traded near $106 per barrel, while gold fell $4 to $1835 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky and large-caps outperformed SMID stocks in 11 of the 19 years in our test period. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Stocks were mostly lower on Friday morning, after rising strongly on Thursday, as investors weighed developments in the Ukraine conflict along with new consumer sentiment and housing market data. The National Association of Realtors said that its pending home sales index fell to 104.9 in February, down 4.1% from the prior month and 5.4% from the prior year, reflecting both rising prices and limited supply. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 59.4 in March from 62.8 in February amid continued inflation concerns. The Dow was flat, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.9%. Crude oil rose to $113 per barrel, while gold traded near $1959 per ounce.

While investors continue to react fearfully to developments related to the Omicron COVID-19 variant and the Fed tapering timeline, many insiders remain steadfast -- snatching up seemingly discounted stocks as opportunities arise. This activity has led to improvement in the overall Insider Index from Vickers Stock Research, with the metric posting its most-optimistic reading in over a year. As an additional positive, insider-trading volume remains high, with the total number of transactions recorded by Vickers over the past week exceeding any other time in the past month.

In theory, stock investors can breathe easier heading into the fourth quarter -- a quarter in which markets typically post the strongest returns of the year. We analyzed data collected on S&P 500 performance from 1980 to 2020. By our calculations, the 4Q has generated average gains of 4.4%, compared to gains of 2.1%, 3.2% and 0.5% for 1Q, 2Q and 3Q, respectively. And the fourth quarter is consistent as well, with a "win percentage" of 80%. That means that stock returns are positive in 4Q four years out of five, and compares to winning percentages of 66% in 1Q, 66% in 2Q, and 64% in 3Q. To be sure, the 4Q has posted its share of clunkers. In 1987, which included Black Friday, stocks fell 23% during the period; while in 2008 they sold off 18%, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and as the U.S. economy plunged into a deep recession. As recently as 2018, stocks slid 14% in the final quarter, when the trade wars intensified and the Federal Reserve raised rates. This time around, it is not unreasonable to expect volatility, given high stock valuations, the pandemic, inflation trends, and Federal Reserve uncertainty. We continue to recommend that clients focus on quality companies with clean balance sheets and experienced management teams.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stock-market volatility has increased of late and last week was certainly no exception. Yet last week, stocks fell and then regained the lost ground within the same trading week -- leaving corporate insiders as whipsawed as any other investor.