We've reported for weeks that the trading activity among corporate insiders in general, but on the tech-heavy Nasdaq in particular, was clearly suggesting that stocks likely had come too far, too fast. Further, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research left the clear impression that stocks were priced for perfection and vulnerable to events like inflation disappointment, geopolitical turmoil, or less-than-expected corporate earnings. Now, a mix of all those things seem to be in play and stocks are indeed experiencing rough sledding for the first time since about October. Reflecting the forecasting from Vickers, as of this writing the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 have slid about 7% from the March 22 highs while the S&P 500 is off about 5%.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022. That's a recent rarity, as for the past decade-plus, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks that year. While growth stocks have retaken the lead since 2023, the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates high to fend off inflation. This could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies in coming quarters. In any event, the value sector is the place to achieve income.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022. That's a recent rarity, as for more than a decade, the performance record favored growth. Since 2010, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed more than 575%, compared to an advance of almost 200% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In 10 of the past 13 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. That hasn't always been the case. In the 2000-2010 decade, including the Great Recession, value stocks were better performers than growth stocks, advancing an admittedly low 8% (but still better than growth, which declined 15% during the decade). Value investors trace their roots to the famous "Security Analysis" textbook, written by Ben Graham, an economics professor at Columbia University. Warren Buffett was one of his students. Why the recent deviation in performance? Several reasons, including changes in the make-up of the economy, growth in intangible assets, and the current level of interest rates. But the tide turned back in 2022, at least for a while, as the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy and regional banks) that had lagged in recent years. While growth stocks have recaptured the lead since 2023, the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates high to fend off inflation. This could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies in coming quarters. In any event, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.0%, compared to the 0.7% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our list this week, we have screened our coverage universe for stocks that are BUY-rated by Argus Research analysts, have an Argus Financial Strength Rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 3.0% or higher. Here's a baker's dozen that meet the criteria. These stocks are also featured in our High-Yield theme model portfolio.

Some investors believe that so-called 'seasonals' are enough to carry stocks higher through the end of 2023, and this year we are inclined to include corporate insiders in that group. Insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research was very supportive of share-price gains during the push higher over the past month. But insiders have now pulled back to what we would call a 'let it ride' posture -- one in which selling is not extreme but buying is not evident either.

Management's ability to "raise guidance" can often be a catalyst for market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. The third-quarter earnings season is wrapping up, with blended earnings (actual results and the consensus for those still to report) showing a 6.3% gain, year-over-year, according to Refinitiv. That is considerably better than the 1.0% expected at the start of the earnings period, and should be enough to end the "earnings recession" that investors have endured over the past three quarters. Propelling the 3Q outperformance were strong gains in Communication Services, up 46%, while Energy again (like last quarter) is performing the worst, down 33%. Our analysts are always on the lookout for companies that boost their outlooks during earnings season. Here is an initial list of BUY-rated companies in Argus Coverage at which management raised guidance or increased its outlook during the 3Q23 EPS reporting season.

Stocks were little changed on Monday morning as investors looked ahead to the Fed's policy statement and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan will also announce interest rate decisions later this week. On the earnings front, FedEx will report fiscal 1Q24 results on Wednesday after the close. The Dow and the S&P were flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.1%. Crude oil rose nearly 1% to $91.50 per barrel while gold traded near $1949 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. Since 2010, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed more than 550%, compared to an advance of almost 300% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In eight of the past 10 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. That hasn't always been the case. In the 2000-2010 decade, which included two Bear Markets and the Great Recession, value stocks were better performers than growth stocks, advancing an admittedly low 8% -- but still better than growth, which declined 15% during the decade. Value investors trace their roots to the famous "Security Analysis" textbook, written in 1934 (the year Argus Research was founded) by Ben Graham, an economics professor at Columbia University. Warren Buffett was one of his students. Looking ahead, the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (Energy sector companies in particular) that have lagged in recent years, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks in the past year. Now, the Federal Reserve is lifting interest rates to fend off inflation, which likely will cap multiple expansion for growth companies. In any event, value is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.0%, compared to the 0.7% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our list this week, we screened our coverage universe for stocks that are BUY-rated by Argus Research analysts, have an Argus Financial Strength rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 3.0% or higher. Here's a baker's dozen of stocks that meet the criteria.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks over the past year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies for a few more quarters. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the 0.9% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks over the past year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies for a few more quarters. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the 0.9% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks moved higher on Thursday after the House passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling. The major indices were all higher in a range of 0.4% to as much as 1.3%. Friday features the jobs report, and at least for a day will swing investor attention back to Fed rate hikes and the status of the U.S. economy.

In this edition, global oil inventories face future; feeling the internet's backbone; and initiating coverage of Qualys; and Lithium Americas, Bausch & Lomb and Macy's.

In this edition, railroads may be in for a bumpy ride; ESG has some opportunities; biotechs innovate; and Constellation Brands, Autodesk, and Tencent.

In this edition, railroads may be in for a bumpy ride; ESG has some opportunities; biotechs innovate; and Constellation Brands, Autodesk, and Tencent.

Stocks rose modestly on Thursday morning after new weekly employment data. The Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended March 4, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 195,000. General Electric shares rose 8% after the company reaffirmed its 2023 guidance and provided a long-term growth forecast for its aerospace business. On the negative side, SVB Financial plunged 41% after announcing a new stock offering and posting a loss on the sale of its bond portfolio. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose to $77 per barrel, while gold rose $12 to $1830 per ounce.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks over the past year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies for a few more quarters. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the 0.9% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

As we believed would happen, expectations for global economic growth in 2022-23 have once again been revised lower -- but there's not much more to cut looking out to 2023. This latest set of negative revisions reflected the inflation-driven cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic. Late last year, the International Monetary Fund was looking for global growth in 2022 of 4.9%, versus 6.1% in 2021. In its April update, the IMF cut that outlook to 3.6% growth in 2022, with industrialized economies expanding 3.3% and emerging economies growing 3.8%. Those estimates seemed high, and indeed the 2022 global outlook is now down to 3.2%. Looking out to 2023, the current forecast now calls for a year of 2.7% growth, down from the prior 3.6%, with developed economies growing at a 1.1% rate. If there is any result lower than that, investors will be facing a global recession. We factor these forecasts into our asset allocation models, and (based in part on the above uncertainty) continue to recommend that investors over-weight portfolios toward U.S.-based securities. Generally, global stocks represent value, but the risks to growth are high.

The stock market is maintaining strength that started in the trading session on Friday, November 4 -- and with a little luck, stocks have some room to run. Indeed, the SPX rose almost 1% on Monday, while the Dow (which had been leading of late) tacked on 1.3% and popped back above its declining 200-day (as it did in August for a couple of days). Elsewhere, the Nasdaq gained 0.9% and the QQQs added 1.1%. Treasury yields across the curve rose and are back near recent highs, but the U.S. Dollar Index fell. Since late September, the dollar is working on two lower highs and is close to a second lower low. On Tuesday, stocks moved higher still.

In this edition, Emissions Hang Heavy Over Investors' Heads, MercadoLibre Promising for Savings, Minding the GAAP

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- are outperforming growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. Since 2010, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed more than 600%, compared to an advance of 300% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In nine of the past 10 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. That wasn't always the case. In the 2000-2010 decade, which included two bear markets and the Great Recession, value stocks were better performers than growth stocks, advancing an admittedly low 8% (but still better than growth, which declined 15% during the decade). Value investors trace their roots to the famous "Security Analysis" textbook, written by Ben Graham, an economics professor at Columbia University. Warren Buffett was one of his students. Looking ahead, the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past year. Now, the Federal Reserve is lifting interest rates to fend off inflation, which will likely cap multiple expansion for growth companies. In any event, value is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.1%, compared to the 0.8% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our list this week, we have screened our coverage universe for stocks that are BUY-rated at Argus Research, have an Argus Financial Strength rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 4.0% or higher. Here's a baker's dozen that meet the criteria.

Stocks bounced back from earlier losses. The Dow ended up, driven by positive news from Johnson & Johnson and Amgen. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is down more than 7% after the U.S. imposed a new license in order to do business in China and Russia, forcing the company to halt shipments to China. Other tech stocks fell as well. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.3%, while the Nasdaq fell 1.2%. Crude oil fell 4% to $86 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $1708 per ounce.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- are outperforming growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. In nine of the past 10 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. But the tide may be turning. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past year. Now, the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates to fend off inflation, which will likely cap multiple expansion for growth companies. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.1%, compared to the 0.8% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

Value stocks (a market segment that includes high-yield stocks) are outperforming growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. But that hasn't always been the case. In the 2000-2010 decade, including the Great Recession, value stocks were better performers than growth stocks, advancing an admittedly low 8%. But that was still better than growth, which declined 15% during the decade. Value investors trace their roots to the famous "Security Analysis" textbook written by Ben Graham, an economics professor at Columbia University. Warren Buffett was one of his students. Why the recent deviation in performance? There are several reasons, including changes in the make-up of the economy, growth in intangible assets, and the current low level of interest rates. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past year. As well, the Federal Reserve is lifting interest rates to fend off inflation, which will likely cap multiple expansion for growth companies.

In this edition, Skyworks soars, Big Biopharma builds immunity to headwinds, and Baidu and the cloud; and Harmonic Drive Systems, Elekta, and Nabtesco.

Stocks gave up early gains on Tuesday morning amid continued concerns about inflation, Fed rate hikes, and lackluster corporate earnings. The slide followed Monday's massive selloff, which sent the S&P below 4,000 for the first time since March 2021. Peloton shares dropped more than 15% after the fitness equipment maker posted a wider-than-expected fiscal 3Q loss, offered disappointing 4Q revenue guidance, and said that it was 'thinly capitalized.' The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $101 per barrel, while gold fell $13 to $1845 per ounce.

Stocks fell again on Tuesday morning amid continued war concerns, as Russian forces moved closer to Kyiv and launched rocket attacks on civilian targets in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city. U.S. manufacturing data was positive. The Institute for Supply Management said that its national factory index rose to 58.6 in February, up from 57.6 in January and above the Reuters consensus forecast of 58.0. The Dow fell 1.7%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil jumped to more than $103 per barrel, while gold traded near $1928 per ounce.

Investors hunting for stocks that reasonably balance long-term growth prospects and current value characteristics might want to look at companies in the Financial Services, Information Technology, and Healthcare sectors. These are among the groups that are selling for (price/earnings)/(growth+yield) ratios at or below the S&P 500's ratio of 2.2x. To generate the PEGY ratios, we use the P/E ratio for each sector (based on forward earnings) for the numerator. For the denominator, we average the growth rates for the past five years along with two years of forward estimates (to achieve a smoother, less-volatile, earnings trend), and then add the current yield (to approximate total return). Premium-valued sectors with low growth rates include Consumer Staples and Utilities. Our over-weight sectors include Healthcare, Financial Services, Industrial, Materials and Information Technology. Our under-weight sectors include Consumer Staples and Utilities.

Stocks gave up strong early gains on Thursday, ending in the red after initially rallying on much better-than-expected economic data. The Commerce Department said that the U.S. economy expanded at a 6.9% rate in 4Q, up strongly from the prior quarter and well above the consensus forecast. On the employment front, first-time jobless claims fell to 260,000, down from the prior week and slightly below consensus. Continuing claims rose to 1.675 million, up from the prior week and above the consensus of 1.655 million. The Dow fell 0.02%, the S&P 0.54%, and the Nasdaq 1.40%. Crude oil rose slightly to $87 per barrel, while gold fell $34 to $1795 per ounce.

This edition features the future of oil demand; shopping for Nordstrom stock; med-tech valuations; and notes from Gilead Sciences, Imperial Brands, and Millicom.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

As Earnings Roll in, the Economy Rolls on

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Wednesday was another tough day for stocks, making it three in a row. The S&P 500 lost 2.2%, the Nasdaq fell 2.7%, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) gave up 2.6%, the S&P 400 was down 3.1%, the Russell 2000 lost 3.2%, and the Dow Industrials forfeited 2%. NYSE market breadth was ugly at -2,475.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

First-Quarter Review and Full-Year 2021 Outlook

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Monday turned out to be another growth-versus-value event, in what is starting to look like a never-ending battle. The Nasdaq tacked on 1.2%, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) added 1.9%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7%, the S&P MidCap 400 fell 0.5%, and the S&P SmallCap 600 got clipped by 1.4%. NYSE breadth was -350, which is quite weak considering the gain in the S&P 500.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

We saw some strange trading days in late 2020, and the majority of them had to do with the massive rotation that was happening at the time. But maybe we should start calling days like Thursday, January 14 more the norm than wacky. As we said recently, 2021 is starting out as the polar opposite of 2020 -- at least as far as the markets are concerned.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This edition features 2020's winners and losers in the utilities sector; a look at how the shift to working from home is changing technology; the oil and gas landscape under a Biden presidency; notes from Myriad Genetics, Vontier, and Gilead.