Over the past two weeks, insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research generated worrisome sentiment indicators for Nasdaq-listed companies. This week, the cautionary signals are off the charts. Let's dig deeper.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

With earnings season and summer now over, a few back-to-business months lie ahead. Insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research during earnings season was encouraging, especially for stocks that list of the tech-heavy Nasdaq. But Vickers' short-term (one-week) data has yet to align with the long-term (eight-week) data -- so a convincing bullish call was not achieved. Investor attention is now turning to the economy, the Fed, and the presidential-election season, events that generally don't carry with them the fast reaction of a blowout (or awful) earnings report. And the current sentiment data from Vickers seems to reflect that murkier outlook.

Stocks rose on Thursday following new retail sales and weekly employment data. The rally came despite signs from the Fed that it would raise interest rates two more times this year after its pause on Wednesday. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.3% in May, helped by strong sales of automobiles, building materials, and garden equipment. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 262,000 for the week ended June 10, above the consensus forecast of 249,000. Continuing claims rose by 20,000 to 1.775 million. The Dow rose 1.26%, the S&P 1.22%, and the Nasdaq 1.15%. Crude oil rose more than 3% to $70.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1970 per ounce.

Innovation may be hard to define but, to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy is at its largest point in history and still growing. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products and services, and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would be contracting, not expanding, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Particularly at this juncture of the market and economic cycles, when uncertainty is high due to high inflation and rising interest rates, we look to innovative companies to successfully navigate the challenges. At Argus, an 88-year-old independent research firm that has innovated a time or two in its long history, we have focused on four types of innovative companies: Industry Disruptors; First to Market; New Product Specialists; and Product & Process Perfectors. Here are some examples of companies, featured in our Innovation Theme Model Portfolio.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where labor and materials costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic and the current period of high inflation, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services (such as Zoom calls) and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. The current high level of the U.S. dollar relative to currencies around the world attests to the confidence that global investors have in the durable and innovative U.S. economy.

Monday Tee Up: Barrage of Retail Earnings

Stocks rose on Thursday morning, recouping some of their recent losses. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended December 3. The reading was in line with the Reuters consensus forecast. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, rose by 62,000 to 1.671 million. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.2%. Crude oil rose 1% to $73 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $1806 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fell again on Tuesday morning on continued interest rate concerns after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish speech on Friday. However, employment data was positive. In its monthly JOLTS survey, the Labor Department said that U.S. job openings rose to 11.239 million on the last day of July, up from a revised 11.040 million a month earlier and above the Reuters consensus forecast. Consumer confidence also improved after three straight monthly declines. The Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index rose to 103.2 in August from 95.3 in July. The Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 1.0%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil fell more than 5% to $92 per barrel, while gold traded near $1737 per ounce.

Reading the Tea Leaves on Inflation: CPI Friday

Stocks fell sharply on Thursday morning on continued Ukraine tensions, as the U.S. and NATO disputed claims by Russia that it was withdrawing its troops from positions near the Ukrainian border. Investors also weighed higher-than-expected weekly unemployment claims and lower-than-expected housing starts. On the earnings front, Walmart shares rose after the retailer posted strong fiscal 4Q22 results and raised its FY23 EPS guidance. The Dow fell 1.2%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Crude oil fell 3% to $91 per barrel, while gold jumped $27 to $1898 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning, pulling back from new record highs on Monday amid more signs of persistent inflation. The Labor Department said that its producer price index for final demand rose 0.6% in October, up from 0.5% in September and in line with the Reuters consensus forecast. GE shares rose 4% after the company announced that it would split into three new publicly traded firms focused on healthcare, energy, and aviation. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.5%. Crude oil traded near $83 per barrel, while gold fell $2 to $1826 per ounce.

Stocks picked up momentum in July and maintain the performance lead over bonds heading into a challenging part of the year (the back half of 3Q). Our Stock-Bond Barometer model is close to equally balanced between stocks and bonds for long-term investors. In other words, these asset classes should be near their normal weights in diversified portfolios. We have looked for large-cap companies with strong balance sheets and experienced management teams to be the leaders during the eventual recovery from COVID-19. This played well, and now, with vaccines being distributed, small-cap risks are reduced. Our recommended exposure to small- and mid-caps is now 15% of equity allocation, in line with the benchmark weighting. U.S. stocks have outperformed global stocks over the trailing one- and five-year periods. We expect this to continue over the long term, given volatile global economic and currency conditions. That said, international stocks offer favorable near-term valuations, and we target 15%-18% of equity exposure to the group. Value has been a surprise leader in 2021. We anticipate that growth, led by Tech and Healthcare, will recover and outperform value, led by Energy and Materials, as long as interest rates remain low.

The overall volume of insider transactions remains light due to trading restrictions in place during earnings season, but there are some interesting trends in the current data from Vickers Stock Research. And those trends are positive.

Stocks fell on Friday morning following a new round of first-quarter earnings reports from major companies along with March consumer spending data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. consumer spending rose a strong 4.2% last month after a decline of 1.0% in February. The reading came in slightly ahead of the Reuters consensus forecast of 4.1%. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $64 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1769 per ounce.

Vickers Stock Research, a subsidiary of Argus Research Group, tracks and analyzes insider trading and institutional ownership trends. Form 13-Fs are due 45 days after the end of calendar quarters, and are now coming in from 4Q20. We review the 13Fs of the major activist investors, including Carl Icahn, Trian Fund Management, Jana Partners, and ValueAct Holdings, among others. Activist investing has evolved and is now less about generating a short-term return on an underpriced stock and more about achieving long-term returns through an active management/investor partnership. Here are some recent new purchases and key holdings of activist investors, according to Vickers.

Stocks rose on Friday morning amid strong earnings reports from Deere and Applied Materials and new housing market data. The National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales rose 0.6% to an annualized 6.69 million units in January, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 6.61 million. The inventory of previously owned homes available for sale also fell to a record low of 1.04 million last month, down nearly 26% from the prior year. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil traded near $59.50 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1785 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Friday morning amid strong earnings reports from Deere and Applied Materials and new housing market data. The National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales rose 0.6% to an annualized 6.69 million units in January, above the Reuters consensus forecast of 6.61 million. The inventory of previously owned homes available for sale also fell to a record low of 1.04 million last month, down nearly 26% from the prior year. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.8%. Crude oil traded near $59.50 per barrel, while gold rose $10 to $1785 per ounce.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) surged in the past quarter. They also have outperformed large-caps over the past 12 months and may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and the economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks are generally lower than the prices of large-caps. While SMID stocks can be risky, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20%-25% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. We note that the Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) surged in the past quarter. They also have outperformed large-caps over the past 12 months and may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and the economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks are generally lower than the prices of large-caps. While SMID stocks can be risky, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20%-25% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. We note that the Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

For several weeks now, our review of insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research has left us concerned about the behavior of executives, directors and beneficial owners. Yes, this group of investors usually sells shares more often then they buy shares. But over the past month, the rate of selling moved to levels that were more extreme than we like to see.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning as investors weighed strong earnings reports from major technology companies and positive consumer spending data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. consumer spending rose 5.6% in June, down from 8.5% in May, but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 5.5% growth. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. Crude oil rose slightly to $40 per barrel, while gold jumped $28 to $1970 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning as investors weighed strong earnings reports from major technology companies and positive consumer spending data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. consumer spending rose 5.6% in June, down from 8.5% in May, but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 5.5% growth. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. Crude oil rose slightly to $40 per barrel, while gold jumped $28 to $1970 per ounce.

Stocks started to recover in April, and over the past month the S&P 500 has regained 13%. Momentum investing is a strategy designed to take advantage of current or recent market trends. Momentum investors identify and invest in stocks that typically are moving higher over a period of time. We like to see a chart featuring a prolonged period of rising highs and rising lows. Generally, the fundamentals are favorable for these stocks, which is why they are on the way up. But at the very least, momentum investors need to be cognizant of valuation, because at times these stocks may move outside of normal value bounds. In that case, investors may want to wait for a pullback in the stock price to a support level such as a 50-day or 200-day moving average. Below are the top 15 BUY-rated momentum stocks for the trailing one-month period, many from the beaten-down Energy and Retail sectors, but also a couple from Healthcare.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday, hurt by sizeable declines for Amazon, which posted less-than-expected earnings and noted a need for investments that would limit future profits, and for mega-cap technology companies after a strong performance recently. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 2.6%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.2% and the S&P 500 lost 2.8%. But gains earlier in the week, helped by progress on health care treatments in fighting the coronavirus, minimized the weekly declines to 0.2% for both the Dow and S&P 500 and 0.3% for the Nasdaq. Year-to-date losses are now 16.9% for the Dow, 4.1% for the Nasdaq and 12.4% for the S&P 500.

Stocks started to recover in April, and over the past month the S&P 500 has regained 13%. Momentum investing is a strategy designed to take advantage of current or recent market trends. Momentum investors identify and invest in stocks that typically are moving higher over a period of time. We like to see a chart featuring a prolonged period of rising highs and rising lows. Generally, the fundamentals are favorable for these stocks, which is why they are on the way up. But at the very least, momentum investors need to be cognizant of valuation, because at times these stocks may move outside of normal value bounds. In that case, investors may want to wait for a pullback in the stock price to a support level such as a 50-day or 200-day moving average. Below are the top 15 BUY-rated momentum stocks for the trailing one-month period, many from the beaten-down Energy and Retail sectors, but also a couple from Healthcare.

Argus Research covers 55 leading global healthcare companies. Many of them are working on new products, vaccines and medicals supplies and equipment to help healthcare professionals treat Covid-19 patients and prevent the outbreak from spreading even further than its current trajectory projects. Argus Senior Analyst David Toung and Security Analyst Jasper Hellweg cited the following companies in the current battle.

Argus Research covers 55 leading global healthcare companies. Many of them are working on new products, vaccines and medicals supplies and equipment to help healthcare professionals treat Covid-19 patients and prevent the outbreak from spreading even further than its current trajectory projects. Argus Senior Analyst David Toung and Security Analyst Jasper Hellweg cited the following companies in the current battle.

Hologic manufactures proprietary products for the healthcare needs of women. The company operates in five segments: breast health (44% of sales), diagnostics (39%) surgical (14%), and skeletal health (3%). While the company traditionally focused on breast health, the acquisition of Gen-Probe put greater emphasis on commercial diagnostics. The United States accounts for the largest portion of the firm's revenue (74%), followed by Europe (12%), Asia (9%), and other international markets (5%). Hologic is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning amid a spike in coronavirus cases in China, as Chinese authorities adopted a new diagnostic method for detecting the virus. The increase came just a day after reports that the rate of infection was slowing. On the earnings front, Cisco Systems fell more than 6%, despite better-than-expected fiscal 2Q results, after the company issued weak 3Q guidance. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil rose slightly to $51 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $1580 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning amid a spike in coronavirus cases in China, as Chinese authorities adopted a new diagnostic method for detecting the virus. The increase came just a day after reports that the rate of infection was slowing. On the earnings front, Cisco Systems fell more than 6%, despite better-than-expected fiscal 2Q results, after the company issued weak 3Q guidance. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil rose slightly to $51 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $1580 per ounce.

In the world of axioms, momentum and high-growth investors often are credited with the following (or something like it): When the leaders stop leading, some pain may come to Wall and Broad. We've talked about some of the major indices that filled their Monday gaps, but there is one industry in particular that did not. The all-important semiconductor stocks, or the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), failed to rally enough on Tuesday or Wednesday to fill the empty space. Is that telling? It certainly could be, at least in the short term.

In the world of axioms, momentum and high-growth investors often are credited with the following (or something like it): When the leaders stop leading, some pain may come to Wall and Broad. We've talked about some of the major indices that filled their Monday gaps, but there is one industry in particular that did not. The all-important semiconductor stocks, or the iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), failed to rally enough on Tuesday or Wednesday to fill the empty space. Is that telling? It certainly could be, at least in the short term.

Stocks were up on Wednesday morning following President Trump's statement that an armed U.S. response to Iran's missile strike was not imminent. According to the ADP National Employment report, private-sector employment increased by 202,000 from November to December, on a seasonally adjusted basis. It was above expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $60 per barrel, while gold fell $14 to $1560 per ounce.

Stocks were up on Wednesday morning following President Trump's statement that an armed U.S. response to Iran's missile strike was not imminent. According to the ADP National Employment report, private-sector employment increased by 202,000 from November to December, on a seasonally adjusted basis. It was above expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, the S&P 500 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $60 per barrel, while gold fell $14 to $1560 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Friday morning as investors weighed strong earnings reports from major technology companies and positive consumer spending data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. consumer spending rose 5.6% in June, down from 8.5% in May, but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 5.5% growth. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. Crude oil rose slightly to $40 per barrel, while gold jumped $28 to $1970 per ounce.