The stock market is in a rough patch for the first time since the July to October period of last year. After the major indices hit their secondary highs on April 11 (the Nasdaq hit its all-time high that day), is has pretty much been "down periscope." Out of those trading six days, the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) have fallen between 0.9% and 2.1% on three (SPX) or four of those days. Despite the very steep downside slope of the Big 3, NYSE breadth actually bottomed on April 12 and 15, illustrating that the selling has been concentrated in Big Tech and the many stocks that were overly extended on a momentum basis.

In this edition, European interest-rate cuts on the horizon; firm opportunities among drug and biopharma firms; and reports Tesla's affordable vehicle will be canceled; and Lazard, PVH, and Genmab.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Was that a case of quarter-end buying by institutions? Over the last 50 minutes of the trading session on Wednesday, the S&P 500 (SPX) took off like a rocket, surging 30 points and finishing 0.9% higher on the day and at another all-time high. But the biggest winners on the day were small-caps, with the Russell 2000 (IWM) surging 2.2% and the S&P 600 (SML) spiking 2.4%. The IWM is breaking out of a more-than two-year base and closed at its highest level since December 2021.

Stocks rallied on Thursday, extending yesterday's gains on rate-cut optimism. Turning to stocks, shares of Apple (AAPL) are down after the U.S. Department of Justice filed a lawsuit accusing the company of engineering a monopoly in the smartphone market. Bank stocks are up today as investors are optimistic that the anticipated rate cuts this year will drive more transactions. The S&P 500 is up 0.3%, the Dow is up 0.7%, the Nasdaq is up 0.2%, and the Russell 2000 is up 1.16%.

As if the stock market needed more help, now we have declining Treasury yields across the entire yield curve. Treasury yields fell consistently from October 19, 2023, until their most-recent bottom on December 27. That move certainly helped stocks rally off their October 27 low. Yields popped from 12/27/23 until 2/22/24 and stocks ignored the increase. Since their closing peaks of 4.33% a few weeks ago, both the 5- and 10-year yields have dropped to 4.1% while the 2-year has declined to 4.56% from 4.7%.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022. That's a recent rarity, as for the past decade-plus, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks that year. While growth stocks have retaken the lead since 2023, the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates high to fend off inflation. This could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies in coming quarters. In any event, the value sector is the place to achieve income.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022. That's a recent rarity, as for more than a decade, the performance record favored growth. Since 2010, the Russell 1000 Growth Index has climbed more than 575%, compared to an advance of almost 200% for the Russell 1000 Value Index. In 10 of the past 13 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. That hasn't always been the case. In the 2000-2010 decade, including the Great Recession, value stocks were better performers than growth stocks, advancing an admittedly low 8% (but still better than growth, which declined 15% during the decade). Value investors trace their roots to the famous "Security Analysis" textbook, written by Ben Graham, an economics professor at Columbia University. Warren Buffett was one of his students. Why the recent deviation in performance? Several reasons, including changes in the make-up of the economy, growth in intangible assets, and the current level of interest rates. But the tide turned back in 2022, at least for a while, as the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy and regional banks) that had lagged in recent years. While growth stocks have recaptured the lead since 2023, the Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates high to fend off inflation. This could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies in coming quarters. In any event, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.0%, compared to the 0.7% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our list this week, we have screened our coverage universe for stocks that are BUY-rated by Argus Research analysts, have an Argus Financial Strength Rating of at least Medium, and have a yield of 3.0% or higher. Here's a baker's dozen that meet the criteria. These stocks are also featured in our High-Yield theme model portfolio.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

With many of the elite stocks technically overbought after huge moves in late 2023 and early 2024, we've done a search for stocks that might provide some 'alpha' if the red-hot AI stocks finally take a break. We examined how much the actual return of an investment might exceed its expected return based on its risk level. We asked our Certified Market Technician Mark Arbeter to study charts for technical signals that favor individual stocks and predict their alpha. Mark reported that it is difficult to find strong technical setups at this time. Still, he looked for stocks that have been beaten down but show evidence that the worst is over. Technical characteristics for these stocks include an existing intermediate- to long-term downtrend, capitulatory volume during weakness followed by an upside reversal, bullish daily and weekly momentum divergences, and (most importantly) signs that the stock is at least attempting to trace out a bottoming pattern. Mark looks for these bottom formations in certain trading patterns. Here's a list of Argus Research BUY-rated stocks that fit Mark's technical model, signally possibly upside ahead.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Many investors are getting a nice holiday present this December, as 2023 is closing out with a burst higher for stocks. The gains have been swift in the last month or so and are spread across sectors and market caps. Yet some companies have not joined in the party - and we think they may present opportunities. We used the Argus screening tool to generate a list of companies that have clean balance sheets and a proven track record for profits. We also like the management teams and strategies at these companies. For our list, we identified 11 BUY-rated large- or mega-cap companies across numerous industries that are selling at more than 25% below their 52-week highs. The list includes stocks in multiple sectors.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Recession Fears Fade away as Earnings, Economy Deliver

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

We're sorry to sound like a broken record, but Monday was yet another day with poor market breadth. The major indices masked the weakness under the hood, with the S&P 500 (SPX) finishing the first trading day of October flat, the Nasdaq gaining 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 100 popping 0.8%. The two SPX sectors that rose on the day were Technology (XLK +0.8%) and Communication Services (XLC +0.6%).

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks over the past year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies for a few more quarters. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the 0.9% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks over the past year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies for a few more quarters. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the 0.9% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

August has been rough for stocks. The markets are down from their highs, although the year overall has been upbeat for stocks -- especially compared to a dismal 2022. The continued stress on the economy from higher interest rates, and questions about whether the Federal Reserve is done raising them, have weighed on valuations. Most economists are not convinced that the recession question has been answered. While there are strengths in the economy -- like the labor market and consumer spending -- inflation indicators inched up last month. The uncertain environment has impacted small-caps, mid-caps, large-caps, and even mega-caps. There is a wide range in data that shows how sectors are weathering this climate, with Communication Services up nearly 40% year-to-date but Consumer Staples down 2% for the same time period. In our opinion, some solid companies with strong financials have been oversold. For our list this week, we identified 10 BUY-rated large- or mega-cap companies across numerous industries that are selling at attractive valuations (more than 20% below their 52-week highs). They are listed according to company size, with the largest first.

Market breadth has deteriorated quickly, which is surprising after the recent strong advance. Every recent rally attempt has been stepped on by sellers. Seasonals are playing out and historically don't get better until October. Not much is working, as stocks, bonds, commodities, and crypto are being dumped.

Monday Tee Up: Walmart's Turn

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Stocks have recovered thus far in 2023, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks rose on Wednesday morning as investors awaited new developments in the debt ceiling negotiations in Washington. Housing market data was mixed, with growth in both single- and multi-family housing starts, but a decline in total building permits. Overall housing starts rose 2.2% to an annualized 1.401 million units, slightly above the Reuters consensus forecast. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.6%. Crude oil traded near $72 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1986 per ounce.

In this edition, global oil inventories face future; feeling the internet's backbone; and initiating coverage of Qualys; and Lithium Americas, Bausch & Lomb and Macy's.

In this edition, railroads may be in for a bumpy ride; ESG has some opportunities; biotechs innovate; and Constellation Brands, Autodesk, and Tencent.

In this edition, railroads may be in for a bumpy ride; ESG has some opportunities; biotechs innovate; and Constellation Brands, Autodesk, and Tencent.

For our list this week, we are focusing on the Healthcare Sector, which we rank as one of our favorites with an Over-Weight rating. Healthcare was an outperformer in 2022, falling only 4% while the S&P 500 dropped 19%, but has lagged in the early weeks of 2023. We think the recent relative weakness may offer a buying opportunity. Post-COVID, consumers are more willing to spend on lifestyle enhancements along with necessary spending on life-saving treatments. In addition, the survival of the Affordable Care Act has kept the ranks of insured U.S. citizens above the historical average, further increasing consumer spending on healthcare services and products. Meanwhile, companies with experience in diagnostic testing, vaccines, and antiviral medicines, as well as suppliers of protective equipment and other hospital products, have benefited from efforts to contain the pandemic. The sector accounts for 14.7% of the S&P 500, and includes companies in the pharmaceuticals, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurance industries. Here's our list of Argus BUY-rated Healthcare stocks that are large-cap and have solid books. We sorted by the largest percentage from the 52-week high.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- outperformed growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. But the tide turned in 2022. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines gave a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that had lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks outpaced growth stocks over the past year. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which could possibly cap multiple expansion for growth companies for a few more quarters. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.2%, compared to the 0.9% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

Monday Tee Up: Heavy on Earnings, Light on the Economy

Rapidly rising inflation 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower last year. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those fixed-income returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.5% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate.

Stocks rose on Tuesday morning as investors awaited the results of the midterm elections, with late polls pointing to a Republican victory in the House and a tight race in the Senate. On the earnings front, Lyft shares fell more than 20% after the ride-hailing firm posted weaker-than-expected 3Q revenue and earnings. The Dow rose 1.3%, the S&P 1.1%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil fell slightly to $91.50 per barrel, while gold rose $36 to $1717 per ounce.

Both the potential onset of recession (if the economy is not in one already) and the sharp move higher in interest rates have pulled the foundation out from under the equity market in 2022. Few sectors have been spared, with only the Energy industry in the green on a year-to-date basis. The broad retrenchment has dragged down small-caps, mid-caps, large-caps, and even the mega-caps that had previously pushed stocks to new heights as the economy recovered from the pandemic. In our opinion, some of these world-class companies have been oversold. For our list this week, we have identified 11 BUY-rated large- or mega-cap companies across numerous industries that are selling at attractive valuations and are more than 20% below their 52-week highs.

Healthcare is a sector that includes many categories and investing disciplines. It is innovative, can be either growth or value, and can involve start-ups or mature companies. A healthcare company can be built around one product that is leveraged in broad and creative ways, or a company with depth, breadth and products that have many touchpoints. Many of the companies are truly science-based, some with managers who are stronger as scientists than as executives running a company; others have scientists focus on science while practiced managers mind the books. The Healthcare sector accounts for 15% of the S&P 500, with an overall market cap of $1.4 trillion dollars. Subsectors include Biotechnology, Healthcare Distributors, Healthcare Equipment, Healthcare Supplies, Life Sciences Tools and Services, Managed Healthcare, and Pharmaceuticals. We think investors should Over-Weight the sector and consider allocating about 15% of their diversified portfolios to stocks in the sector. Healthcare is slightly outperforming the S&P 500 thus far in 2022, with a loss of 14% compared to the 25% loss for the S&P 500. The following are some Argus BUY-rated Healthcare companies. The stocks were selected using the Argus screening tool and the following criteria: BUY-rated; large-cap (greater than $8 billion market capitalization); a Financial Strength rating of Medium-High or High; and paying a dividend. We feel these companies currently are best in class for the sector. Some are also part of our model portfolios (Growth & Income, Equity Income, Growth, and Institutional).

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- are outperforming growth stocks in 2022 for the first time since 2016. Indeed, for the past decade, the performance record has favored growth. In nine of the past 10 years, growth stocks have topped value stocks. But the tide may be turning. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past year. Now, the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates to fend off inflation, which will likely cap multiple expansion for growth companies. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 2.1%, compared to the 0.8% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

Stocks were mostly higher on Thursday morning amid more signs of moderating inflation. The Labor Department said that its producer price index for final demand fell 0.5% in July, down from a 1.0% increase in June. The reading was the first negative number since April 2020 and below the Reuters consensus forecast, which called for an increase of 0.2%. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P rose 0.4%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil rose 1.5% to $93.50 per barrel, while gold rose $8 to $1806 per ounce.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 has knocked the stock market into a bear market. While growth strategies have suffered the most, value strategies also have declined. Even year-to-date bond prices are lower. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was much higher than the current 3.0% level. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Monday provided a much-needed rest for the stock market after a very large rebound last week. Following that strong week (and we've seen this before during the current decline), the "bottom-callers" are out, but not in big numbers. That's probably a good thing, as others are calling this another bear-market rally. From a technical perspective and using our own interpretation, it is far too early to call the bottom as there is just not enough of the needed evidence.

We are raising our intermediate-term technical outlook to neutral from bearish. This reverses our April 22 intermediate-term downgrade from neutral to bearish. This action is not a green light and we are not saying the bottom is in and it's up, up, and away from here. But we do think the major indices are attempting to hammer out (via a candlestick pattern) a bottom because we have seen a few "sticks" in recent trading sessions. Simply put, we are seeing days where stocks trade significantly lower but then finish strong.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks gave up early gains on Tuesday morning amid continued concerns about inflation, Fed rate hikes, and lackluster corporate earnings. The slide followed Monday's massive selloff, which sent the S&P below 4,000 for the first time since March 2021. Peloton shares dropped more than 15% after the fitness equipment maker posted a wider-than-expected fiscal 3Q loss, offered disappointing 4Q revenue guidance, and said that it was 'thinly capitalized.' The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $101 per barrel, while gold fell $13 to $1845 per ounce.

We expect resiliency from the U.S. economy and don't anticipate a recession in the near term, based in large part on strength in the all-important consumer and investment sectors of the economy. But there are risks, especially if the Fed moves too quickly to raise rates. The domestic employment environment is nearing full strength, although consumer confidence trends are mixed. Auto sales have recovered from pandemic lows, but at an uneven pace. The U.S. housing market has aided the economic recovery from the pandemic; while high prices have cooled the market a bit, many metrics remain positive. The risk here is that the Fed moves too fast and the consumer sector stalls. Businesses are expanding, but growth is slowing somewhat. Exports are under pressure from the geopolitical tensions in Europe and the rising dollar. But import growth will not continue at the recent high-teens pace. Government spending trends should smooth out as well. Rolling all the data up, our GDP growth forecast in 2022 is now 2.2%, down from our prior forecast of 2.8%. Our estimates are a bit lower than those of other forecasters.

Markets have faced difficult times before, with challenging economic environments, wars, disease, banking and housing crises, and inflation much worse than we are seeing now, to name but a few. Of late, stock investors had it very good for a very long time -- but now, finding opportunities requires much more work. There is no secret sauce, but there are principals that are worth reviewing: 1) diversify; 2) look for strong management; 3) look for solid balance sheets; 4) do your homework; and 5) adapt. To assemble this week's list, we looked across several sectors that historically are considered to be the most-shielded from high inflation and high interest rates. We then cross-referenced our coverage universe for companies where our analysts recently raised target prices; that have an Argus Financial Strength rating of at least Medium-High; and that pay dividends of least 3%. Some companies also are featured in our model portfolios (Growth & Income, Equity Income, Growth, and Institutional). Here is our list of companies we believe to be recession-proof, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

Value stocks -- a market segment that includes high-yield stocks -- are outperforming growth stocks in 2022. For the past decade, the performance record has favored growth, but the tide may be turning. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has given a lift to some of the cyclical companies (energy companies and regional banks) that have lagged in recent quarters, and value stocks have kept up the pace with growth stocks in the past year. Now, the Federal Reserve is poised to lift interest rates to fend off inflation, which will likely cap multiple expansion for growth companies. Regardless, the value sector is the place to achieve income. The current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Value Index ETF is 1.6%, compared to the 0.5% current yield on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF. For our High-Yield Theme Model Portfolio, we are seeking stocks with yields of at least 3.0%. This moves us deep into the value segment of the market.

Stocks fell again on Friday morning amid continued concerns about surging inflation and the impact of Fed rate hikes. Consumer confidence data was weaker than expected. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 61.7 in the first half of February, down from 67.2 in January and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 67.5. The Dow was flat, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.7%. Crude oil rose to more than $91 per barrel, while gold traded near $1835 per ounce.

Recent data illustrates that U.S. GDP is still expanding (despite the pandemic), though not consistently across all segments of the economy. It seems that some variant of COVID-19 is going to be affecting GDP for several more quarters, at least. We expect resiliency from the economy and don't anticipate a recession in the near term. The primary driver of GDP over the next few quarters is likely to be developments in the pandemic. Trends here have been positive of late, as the impact of Omicron seemingly has passed a peak. The domestic employment environment is in better shape than it was a year ago, although consumer confidence trends are mixed. Auto sales have recovered from pandemic lows, but growth has slowed due to supply-chain issues (that we note are starting to improve). Businesses are again expanding. But the housing marke has started to cool as home prices soar. Rolling the data up, our model calls for a 2.1% increase in 1Q22 GDP. We look for improving growth as 2022 progresses, as Omicron fears fade. On an annual basis, our forecast for 2022 GDP growth is 3.4%. Our estimates are a bit lower than other forecasters. The Federal Reserve and the IMF are anticipating 2022 growth of 4.0%. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Survey of Professional Forecasters is calling for growth of 3.9% in 2022. That said, the GDPNow Forecast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is only 0.1% for 1Q22.

The onset of the coronavirus in 2020 knocked stocks into a bear market. Though equities recovered, the U.S. economy is about to slow down and COVID-19 cases are rising again as virus variants spread. Volatility, which has dropped from the highs of 2020, still has not returned to pre-COVID levels. Daily prices can swing wildly, as they did three times in 2021 when stocks dropped 4%-5% in a matter of a few days. Is it time for investors to cash in their chips? We note that investors exit the stock market at their own peril, as long-term returns from equities consistently have outpaced long-term returns from other asset classes, such as fixed income and cash. As well, those returns are from eras when the 10-year Treasury bond yield was not sub-2.0%. So what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.