The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

After four consecutive alarmingly high Nasdaq One-Week Sell/Buy Ratios, data from Vickers Stock Research this week brings a calmer reading. Still, at 3.37, the Nasdaq ratio remains higher than the NYSE ratio at 2.91, this on a scale where readings above 2.50 are bearish. Nevertheless, this data this week represents a sharp decline from the readings in recent weeks, when the Nasdaq One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio reached a peak of 9.80 in the week of January 22, making the current weekly reading the lowest (least glaringly bearish) result since late December.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks. High-yield stocks typically have dividends that pay out in the 5%-8% range. Though the income appears attractive, the share prices of high-yield stocks may be at risk. Dividend-growth stocks typically have lower yields, often in the 1.0%-2.5% range. But the lower-yielding dividends are not likely to be a huge component of cash flow, leaving management teams with other value-additive options for deploying cash. Further, while the yields are not as high, management teams may be more likely to boost the payouts over time, as earnings grow.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stubborn Inflation, Sturdy Consumers: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

Stocks edged higher on Monday morning as investors awaited earnings from Apple and Amazon, and the July employment report later this week. With about half of S&P 500 companies having reported, FactSet said that 2Q23 earnings were down 7.3% from the prior year, the sharpest decline since 2Q20. However, some 80% of reporting companies have beaten expectations, above the five-year average of 78%. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.3%. Crude oil rose nearly 1% to $81 per barrel while gold traded near $2006 per ounce.

Dividend income is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Thus far in 2023, market bulls are boasting about first-half S&P 500 returns that may top 15%. No one is very focused on the broad market index's 1.6% current yield. But dividends are an important element of return. Dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500 between 1930 and 2012, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some of those decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for a smaller portion of returns, at around 15%-20%. In 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Fed hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

This was one of our 10 Investment Themes for 2023 and remains relevant, as the S&P 500 is up 13% year-to-date. The long-term trend in the U.S. stock market has been higher; since 1980, stocks have turned in a positive performance almost 80% of the time. The average annual gain has been 13%. That was not so in 2022. Yes, the S&P 500 set an all-time record. But it peaked on January 3 and the rest of the year was downhill. The stock market entered a bear market in June 2022. Bond returns weren't much better, as spiking inflation pushed long-term interest rates higher and the Fed raised short-term rates to try to bring inflation down. The turmoil posed a challenge for Wall Street firms, as investment returns were dismal, the IPO market dried up, and M&A activity disappeared. By year-end, Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were announcing layoffs. We are more optimistic for the financial markets in 2023. Equity valuations are lower in the wake of the selloff in 2022. There is pent-up demand for IPOs and M&A once the environment improves. Finally, consensus expectations call for weak earnings and investment returns in 2023, setting markets up for a positive surprise. As the outlook improves, we think that investor demand will pick up for investment banks, exchange operators, and money-management firms. We recently raised our sector rating on Financial Services to Over-Weight. Stocks in our coverage universe that we believe are positioned to benefit include the following.

April Finishes Strong: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

April Finishes Strong: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Stocks

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high European inflation or other geopolitical developments. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky, but diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $15 billion to define a SMID stock.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

We recently adjusted our recommended sector allocations. The following reflects our guidance for the calendar second quarter of 2023. We have raised Technology to Over-Weight from Market-Weight. Although consumer electronics demand could remain suppressed, IT demand in enterprise and data center markets is holding up. As well, mounting interest in ChatGPT could herald the age of AI, which would be a huge industry driver. We have also raised Financial Services to Over-Weight from Market-Weight and Consumer Discretionary to Market-Weight from Under-Weight. We lowered Healthcare to Market-Weight from Over-Weight. As the sector transitions from battling the pandemic, we expect to see some inefficiencies and an uneven return to full utilization of healthcare resources. Our rebalancing process takes place four times a year, early in the months of March, June, September, and December. Our current Over-Weight sectors are now Basic Materials, Financial Services, Industrials and Technology. Our current Market-Weight sectors are Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Healthcare, Real Estate, and Utilities. Our Under-Weight sectors are Communication Services and Consumer Staples. Argus Research suggests that advisors and investors leverage this consistent and comprehensive process to adjust sector weightings within their diversified equity portfolios.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF); Sonoco Products Co. (SON); Arista Networks Inc (ANET); Lilly(Eli) & Co (LLY) and the Focus List deletions are Merck & Co Inc (MRK); Huntington Bancshares, Inc. (HBAN); Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR); HubSpot Inc (HUBS).

Stocks rose on Tuesday morning as investors weighed earnings reports from General Motors, Pfizer, and McDonald's, and awaited the Fed's interest rate announcement on Wednesday. GM shares jumped 7% after the automaker posted much better than expected 4Q sales and earnings. On the inflation front, new data pointed to slower growth in labor costs. The Labor Department said that its employment cost index rose 1.0% in 4Q, down from 1.2% growth in 3Q and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.1% growth. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil rose 1% to $79 per barrel, while gold rose $5 to $1944 per ounce.

The long-term trend in the U.S. stock market has been higher. Since 1980, stocks have turned in positive performances almost 80% of the time. The average annual gain has been 13%. That was not the case in 2022. Sure, the S&P 500 set an all-time record. But it peaked on January 3, and the rest of the year was downhill. The stock market technically entered a bear market in June. Bond returns weren't much better, as spiking inflation pushed long-term interest rates higher and the Federal Reserve raised short-term rates to try to bring inflation under control. The turmoil in the marketplace posed a challenge for Wall Street firms, as investment returns were dismal, the IPO market dried up, and M&A activity disappeared. By year-end, Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were announcing layoffs. Looking ahead, we are more optimistic for stocks in 2023. For one thing, equity valuations are lower in the wake of the sharp sell-off in 2022. For another, there is pent-up demand for IPOs and M&A, once the environment improves. Finally, consensus expectations call for weak 2023 earnings and investment returns, setting the markets up for a positive surprise. As the outlook for financial firms improves, we think investor demand will pick-up for investment banks, exchanges, and money management firms. Stocks in our Universe of Coverage that are in position to benefit include the following.

Dividend income, an important element of total return, is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022 as well. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Each December, Argus surveys its team of analysts, seeking their best ideas for the upcoming year. The Argus Research team draws on its experience (the average analyst has 18 years of Wall Street experience and 10 year at Argus), as well as the company's proprietary six-point research framework and earnings and valuation models to make the calls. Argus analysts cover the waterfront (every sector from Energy to Healthcare to Consumer to Technology), so each sector is represented. This year's list includes some long-time favorites, as well as some recent upgrades and new initiations. The list includes mostly large-caps and mid-caps, and both growth and value stocks. We will be going over the list in more detail during our January webinar and detailing why each stock has been selected by the covering analyst. In the interim, more information on each of these BUY-rated stocks is available on our website.

Stocks surged on Thursday following positive inflation data, recording their strongest one-day advance since 2020. The Labor Department said that its consumer price index rose 7.7% from the prior year in October, down from 8.2% in September and below the consensus forecast of 7.9%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose at a lower-than-expected 6.3% rate. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 7,000 to 225,000 for the week ended November 5, slightly above the consensus forecast. Continuing claims rose to 1.493 million, also up from the prior week and above consensus. The Dow soared 3.70%, the S&P 5.54%, and the Nasdaq 7.35%. Crude oil rose slightly to $86 per barrel, while gold jumped $47 to $1760 per ounce.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky -- and large-caps outperformed SMID stocks in 11 of the 19 years in our test period. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Recent one-week insider-sentiment readings from Vickers Stock Research have been toggling between very positive and neutral. As a result, Vickers' eight-week sell/buy ratios have started to retreat a bit from the exceedingly bullish levels of a few weeks ago. Still, current readings remain well below the 2.00 line that starts the bullish territory for these sentiment gauges. Vickers' current NYSE Eight-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is 1.60, the Nasdaq is 1.87, and the Total, which accounts for activity across all of the exchanges, is 1.74. Those are good sentiment readings under any conditions.

Stocks plunged on Thursday morning, reversing Wednesday's strong Fed-driven rally. In his post-announcement press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that additional 50-basis-point rate hikes 'would be on the table,' but reassured investors that Fed officials were not discussing greater one-time hikes of 75 basis points. Mr. Powell acknowledged that inflation was 'much too high' and said that the Fed was 'moving expeditiously to bring it back down.' The Dow fell 2.6%, the S&P 3.0%, and the Nasdaq 4.1%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $109 per barrel, while gold rose $20 to $1889 per ounce.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky and large-caps outperformed SMID stocks in 11 of the 19 years in our test period. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks plunged on Thursday amid weak earnings and disappointing guidance from Facebook owner Meta Platforms, which warned of increased competition and a substantial revenue hit from Apple's new advertising tracking policy. FB shares fell more than 26%. On the employment front, first-time jobless claims fell to 238,000 for the week ended January 29, down from 261,000 a week earlier and below the consensus forecast of 245,000. Continuing claims fell to 1.628 million, down from the prior week but slightly above consensus. The Dow fell 1.45%, the S&P 2.44%, and the Nasdaq 3.74%. Crude oil traded near $90 per barrel, while gold rose $2 to $1806 per ounce.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Laboratory Corp. Of America Hl (LH); AECOM (ACM); Lazard Ltd. (LAZ); Netflix Inc (NFLX) and the Focus List deletions are Charter Communications Inc. (CHTR); General Dynamics Corp. (GD); Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF); Silk Road Medical Inc (SILK).

Stocks edged higher on Monday morning, led by gains in the Energy, Materials, and Financial sectors. Data on inflation expectations from the New York Fed was mixed. Consumers surveyed in October expected prices to be up 5.7% in one year, up from 5.3% in September and the highest reading since the start of the survey in June 2013. However, medium-term expectations for inflation in three years held steady at 4.2% after three months of increases. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil rose to more than $82 per barrel, while gold traded near $1826 per ounce.

Stocks edged higher on Monday morning, led by gains in the Energy, Materials, and Financial sectors. Data on inflation expectations from the New York Fed was mixed. Consumers surveyed in October expected prices to be up 5.7% in one year, up from 5.3% in September and the highest reading since the start of the survey in June 2013. However, medium-term expectations for inflation in three years held steady at 4.2% after three months of increases. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil rose to more than $82 per barrel, while gold traded near $1826 per ounce.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) soared in 2019. They have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but still may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are more widely distributed and the domestic service economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. The Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

The overall volume of insider transactions remains light due to trading restrictions in place during earnings season, but there are some interesting trends in the current data from Vickers Stock Research. And those trends are positive.

The U.S. housing market has been a positive contributer to the economic recovery, though some statistics have fallen a bit from recent highs. The National Association of Realtors recently reported that existing home sales fell 1% in May from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.80 million -- but are still well above the 3.9 million rate in May 2020. The Commerce Department reported that new home sales, which were down 33% in April 2020 from January 2020, recovered to 10-year-high level of more than 1 million sales per year last August. While they are currently below those levels, they are above the pre-pandemic trend. Looking ahead, building permits were up 35% in May 2021 compared to May 2020. Though most of these indicators have cooled, housing prices have not. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for April 2021 showed that prices gained 14.6% year-over-year -- the largest gain in 15 years. Meanwhile, inventory levels are tight. On the other side of the pandemic, we think demand for homes -- with yards between neighbors and plenty of space -- will remain solid, supporting domestic economic growth.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of over 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Director of Research Kelleher typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

Stocks fell on Friday morning following a new round of first-quarter earnings reports from major companies along with March consumer spending data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. consumer spending rose a strong 4.2% last month after a decline of 1.0% in February. The reading came in slightly ahead of the Reuters consensus forecast of 4.1%. The Dow fell 0.6%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $64 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1769 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were largely flat on Wednesday morning following earnings reports from Alphabet and Amazon and new employment data. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. private employers added 174,000 jobs in January, well above the Reuters consensus forecast of 49,000 and up from a loss of 78,000 in December. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil traded near $56 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1836 per ounce.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) surged in the past quarter. They also have outperformed large-caps over the past 12 months and may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and the economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks are generally lower than the prices of large-caps. While SMID stocks can be risky, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20%-25% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. We note that the Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID stocks) surged in the past quarter. They also have outperformed large-caps over the past 12 months and may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. For one thing, SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be poised to rebound more quickly once COVID-19 vaccines are widely distributed and the economy recovers. As well, the prices of SMID stocks are generally lower than the prices of large-caps. While SMID stocks can be risky, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 20%-25% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. Investors used to use a $2 billion market-cap threshold to define a small-cap stock and a $10 billion threshold for a mid-cap. We note that the Russell 2000 index now includes numerous companies with market capitalizations above $15 billion. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

Stocks rose on Thursday, rebounding from Wednesday's selloff but also giving up some of their gains late in the session. The Commerce Department reported strong growth in 3Q GDP, which rose at a better-than-expected 33.1% annualized rate. Unemployment claims, still high by historical standards, also trended lower. First-time unemployment benefit claims fell from the prior week to 751,000, below the consensus forecast. Continuing claims totaled 7.756 million, also down from the prior week and below consensus. The Dow rose 0.52%, the S&P 1.19%, and the Nasdaq 1.64%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $36 per barrel, while gold fell $13 to $1866 per ounce.

Stocks finished mixed on Thursday following a record decline in quarterly GDP and continued high unemployment claims. Investors were also rattled earlier in the session by a tweet from President Trump calling for a delay in the November election. The U.S. economy contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, and first-time unemployment claims exceeded 1 million for the 19th straight week, with a slight increase to 1.434 million. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, also rose to 17.01 million, above the Bloomberg consensus of 16.2 million. The Dow fell 0.85%, the S&P fell 0.38%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.43%. Crude oil fell 2% to $40.50 per barrel, while gold dropped $5 to $1972 per ounce.

Stocks finished mixed on Thursday following a record decline in quarterly GDP and continued high unemployment claims. Investors were also rattled earlier in the session by a tweet from President Trump calling for a delay in the November election. The U.S. economy contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, and first-time unemployment claims exceeded 1 million for the 19th straight week, with a slight increase to 1.434 million. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, also rose to 17.01 million, above the Bloomberg consensus of 16.2 million. The Dow fell 0.85%, the S&P fell 0.38%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.43%. Crude oil fell 2% to $40.50 per barrel, while gold dropped $5 to $1972 per ounce.

Stocks finished mixed on Thursday following a record decline in quarterly GDP and continued high unemployment claims. Investors were also rattled earlier in the session by a tweet from President Trump calling for a delay in the November election. The U.S. economy contracted at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter, and first-time unemployment claims exceeded 1 million for the 19th straight week, with a slight increase to 1.434 million. Continuing claims, reported with a one-week lag, also rose to 17.01 million, above the Bloomberg consensus of 16.2 million. The Dow fell 0.85%, the S&P fell 0.38%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.43%. Crude oil fell 2% to $40.50 per barrel, while gold dropped $5 to $1972 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning after President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on China for its handling of the coronavirus crisis. Manufacturing data was also weak. The Institute for Supply Management said that its factory index fell to 41.5 in April, the lowest level since April 2009, from 49.1 in March. Amazon shares fell more than 7% after the company warned that it could post a quarterly loss due to high expenses related to the pandemic. The S&P fell 2.8%, the Dow 2.4%, and the Nasdaq 3.1%. Crude oil rose slightly to $19 per barrel, while gold rose $14 to $1708 per ounce.