Was Thursday's large downside reversal yet another one-day wonder? Strength was seen immediately on Friday, cutting into the weekly losses. The daily chart for the major indices all have a "rolling-over" look, with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) appearing to be ahead of the S&P 500 (SPX) for a break lower. As well, the news from the Middle East seems to be getting worse by the day -- but, so far, the U.S stock market and economy seem to be turning a blind eye to the potential implications. Crude oil prices, both WTI and Brent, aren't exploding, but have seen pretty good rallies. WTI hit $87.60/barrel at the end of last week from the low $70s just two months ago, while Brent almost reached $92 last week from $77 in early February.

This morning's release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will be the third, and final, update of 4Q GDP. The update last month indicated 4Q real GDP rose at an annualized 3.2% pace, down from 4.9% growth in 3Q23. The 4Q performance is solid, with contributions from consumer spending, private investment, exports, and government spending. We don't expect a major revision to GDP this morning. Between 1996 and 2022, the average absolute revision to the quarterly percentage change in real GDP was just 30 basis points, according to the BEA. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on durable goods increased 3.2%, despite a decline in motor vehicles and parts. Gross private domestic investment in structures rose 7.5% after an 11.2% increase in 3Q and a 16.1% increase in 2Q. A report from the U.S. Treasury Department attributed the recent surge in construction to spending on manufacturing facilities for computers, electronics, and electrical products (bolstered by the CHIPS Act), adding that these categories have become a dominant component of manufacturing construction after a few decades of relatively small share. On April 25, the BEA will release its advance estimate for 1Q GDP. We expect 1Q24 growth to slow to 2.3%. The March 26 GDPNow forecast for 1Q24 from the Atlanta Fed is 2.1%, with an estimate for 1.9% growth in PCE. Residential fixed investment and intellectual property could make strong contributions to 1Q GDP according to the Nowcast. For the remainder of 2024, we expect GDP growth of 1.3% in 2Q, 1.8% in 3Q, and 2.3% in 4Q. Our full year 2024 estimate is 2.0%. Our 2025 estimate is also 2.0. Federal Reserve board members and bank presidents expect GDP to grow 2.1% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025, 2.0% in 2026, and 1.8% in the "longer run," based on the median projections provided at their March meeting.

Monday Tee Up: Is Inflation Still Trending Down?

The stock market finally saw a little reversion to the mean on Friday, as the most-loved stock and industry was whacked. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 5.5%, its worst day since May 2023. This followed huge advances of 95% since January 3 and 130% since October 2023. Over six days (ending March 7), the shares rose more than 19%. At Friday's intraday high, NVDA hit $974 and then was slammed down to $865 by 1:35 pm.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

We are increasingly frustrated with one-day wipeouts, as single-day disasters continue to be used as buying opportunities. But that is what we've termed a "lockout rally," so we need to get over it! The stock market has witnessed three nasty days in less than two months, with the first on December 20 -- when the S&P 500 (SPX) gave back 1.5%. The second occurred on January 31, with the SPX losing 1.6%. The third was on Tuesday, knocking 1.4% off the index. The first was followed by a small five-day rally and then a minor pullback low. The second one was followed by a decent seven-day rally to all-time highs. We'll see what happens after the third.

Last week, we discussed some obscure sentiment indicators, all of which suggested stocks are overheating. Things got even hotter this week. We found another type of index option indicator that has done well at forecasting trouble for the stock market, yet we rarely hear anyone talk about it. The following data comes from www.sentimentrader.com.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Jim typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are ServiceNow Inc (NOW); ASML Holding NV (ASML); United Rentals, Inc. (URI); Target Corp (TGT) and the Focus List deletions are Canadian Pac Kansas City Ltd (CP); Salesforce Inc (CRM); D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI); Seagate Tech Hldgs Pl (STX).

With the Santa Claus rally having fallen flat, attention turns to the first five trading sessions of January. And so far, three out of four weren't good. After that, the performance of stocks in all of January will be examined as key to 2024's performance.

Next Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) likely will provide further evidence that the U.S. job market is healthy, but cooling, a condition that should allow the Fed to ease monetary policy but not cause a slump in corporate profits. Our employment forecast is based on a collection of indicators. The number of job openings from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) published by the BLS is down 16.6% over the last year. Back in the days when we used to track newspaper help wanted ads, a 15% decline in "want ads" signaled potentially slower employment and economic growth. The ratio of job openings to unemployed, also from the BLS, suggests that the availability of jobs is cooling, but not cold. It reached a peak of 2.0 when the Fed started raising rates in March 2022 and it fell to 1.3 in October, which is still a healthy level. The ratio was less than 1 from December 2000 to December 2017 and never exceeded 1.25 between 2018 and the start of the pandemic. The JOLTS report is scheduled for January 3. The four-week average of initial jobless claims is a venerable leading indicator and has remained at benign levels between 200,000 and 250,000 for most of the year. The four-week average since 1990 is about 375,000. If the four-week average moved above 300,000 from here, it would get our attention -- but right now, it doesn't suggest that employment has cooled too much. We expect the BLS report next Friday to show that December payroll growth eased to 145,000 from 199,000 in November and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8%.We believe the three-month average of payrolls will drop to approximately 165,000. We are forecasting growth in average hourly earnings to fall by one tenth to 3.9% and average hours worked to tick down to 34.3. Based on analysis using a calculator from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta that uses population and labor force estimates, along with an assumption that the unemployment rate will end 2024 at approximately 4.1%, we expect monthly payrolls to grow by about 60,000 over the next year.

After taking a much-needed breather since November 20, the stock market got back into crawl-higher/lockout-rally mode on Monday. The S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite broke slightly above their closing July levels, while the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is within a few points of taking out its prior all-time high from late 2021. What a very long round trip!

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning as investors weighed a new round of earnings reports and weekly employment data. Walmart shares fell nearly 8% despite strong 3Q results after the company warned of a slowdown in consumer spending. Network gear maker Cisco also fell sharply after lowering its FY24 guidance. On the employment front, first-time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended November 11, above the Reuters consensus of 220,000. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil fell sharply to $73 per barrel, while gold jumped $22 to $1986 per ounce.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks edged lower on Thursday morning after giving up early gains. The decline followed a selloff on Wednesday after the Fed's latest meeting minutes indicated that the central bank remained focused on controlling inflation and suggested that further rate hikes were possible at upcoming meetings. On the earnings front, Cisco shares rose 4% after the company reported better-than-expected fiscal 4Q results, while Walmart shares fell despite strong second-quarter sales and earnings and an increase in its full-year EPS guidance. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose 2% to $81 per barrel, while gold fell $6 to $1923 per ounce.

In this edition, Duke Energy focuses on organic growth opportunities; blow to trucking sector is headache for Knight-Swift; Bread Financial faces a crunch; and Compass Minerals, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, and Target.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

Stocks were mostly higher on Thursday morning amid signs of progress on a debt ceiling deal in Washington and strong earnings from Walmart. WMT shares rose after the retailer reported stronger-than-expected fiscal 1Q results, and raised its full-year EPS guidance. The Dow fell 0.1%, the S&P rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. Crude oil fell 1% to $72 per barrel while gold fell $29 to $1956 per ounce.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Alcon Inc. (ALC); Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA); Comcast Corp (CMCSA); ProLogis (PLD) and the Focus List deletions are AstraZeneca PLC (AZN); Omnicom Group, Inc. (OMC); Target Corp (TGT); Equinix Inc (EQIX).

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning amid new manufacturing data and hawkish comments from Fed officials that pointed to an extended rate hike campaign. The Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing PMI rose to 47.7 in February, up slightly from 47.4 in January but below the Reuters consensus forecast of 48.0. Readings below 50 indicate contraction in manufacturing. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $77 per barrel, while gold rose $12 to $1848 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning amid new manufacturing data and hawkish comments from Fed officials that pointed to an extended rate hike campaign. The Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing PMI rose to 47.7 in February, up slightly from 47.4 in January but below the Reuters consensus forecast of 48.0. Readings below 50 indicate contraction in manufacturing. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $77 per barrel, while gold rose $12 to $1848 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning, extending last week's losses, following earnings reports from Walmart and Home Depot. Walmart posted better-than-expected fiscal 4Q23 results, though the shares fell on management's disappointing FY24 guidance. Home Depot shares fell sharply after the company reported mixed 4Q results and projected lower earnings and flat sales in FY23. The Dow fell 1.4%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil rose to $77 per barrel, while gold traded near $1844 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning following hawkish comments from Fed officials, a sharp decline in housing starts, and mixed earnings reports. Macy's posted better-than-expected 3Q earnings and raised its full-year outlook, while Kohl's withdrew its guidance after a sharp drop in earnings. On the housing front, the Commerce Department said that U.S. housing starts fell 4.2% in October to a seasonally adjusted 1.425 million, still above the Reuters consensus of 1.410 million. The Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $82.50 per barrel, while gold fell $15 to $1761 per ounce.

The dollar is up 9% year-to-date and back at cycle highs. The greenback spiked early in the pandemic, as global investors flocked to the security of assets denominated in U.S. currency. Indeed, the dollar in 2020 surpassed cycle highs set initially in 2001-2002 and then again in late 2016. But after peaking in April 2020, the greenback declined into 2021. In 2022 (in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, spiking inflation, and rising global interest rates), the dollar has surpassed cycle highs. Currently, on a real trade-weighted basis, the dollar is 20% above the average valuation over the past 20 years. The fully valued U.S. currency reflects several factors, but primarily the relative strength of the U.S. economy and global investor confidence in the U.S. Federal Reserve and Department of Treasury (as the world economy battles high inflation). Looking ahead, we anticipate a trading range around current levels for the greenback during the balance of this year and into 2023. That's because we think U.S. GDP will start to cool as the Federal Reserve has lifted the federal funds rate to tame inflation. What's more, with Treasury prices likely headed lower as the Fed addresses inflation, global investors may be selling their T-bills and bonds and reinvesting in their own sovereign debt. Lastly, the lofty current valuation of the greenback implies that other currencies -- and even gold or other commodities -- are possibly undervalued, and we would expect traders to bid up those values over time.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning as investors weighed earnings reports from Netflix, Procter & Gamble, and Abbott Laboratories, and new housing market data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. housing starts fell 8.1% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.439 million, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 1.475 million. Building permits rose 1.4% to an annualized 1.564 million, above the consensus of 1.530 million. The Dow rose 0.2%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.4%. Crude oil rose slightly to $83 per barrel, while gold fell $17 to $1639 per ounce.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Director of Research Kelleher typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Merck & Co Inc (MRK); Fox Corporation (FOXA); Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG); Target Corp (TGT) and the Focus List deletions are Alphabet Inc (GOOGL); Laboratory Corp. Of America Hl (LH); SVB Financial Group (SIVB); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX).

Stocks continued to drop on Friday morning following an earnings warning from FedEx that investors saw as a confirmation of broad economic weakness. The shipping company said that it would report much weaker than expected fiscal 1Q results and withdrew its full-year earnings forecast. FDX shares fell 23%. The shares of UPS and other competitors also fell sharply. The Dow fell 1.0%, the S&P 1.3%, and the Nasdaq 1.6%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $86 per barrel, while gold traded near $1684 per ounce.

In August, the stock market was doing just fine until the middle of the month -- when the S&P 500 tagged the underside of its 200-day moving average. At that point, the risk-on switch was turned off quickly and the risk-off switch was thrown on again. While the losses were not large, it was disappointing for perma-bulls as well as any bears that recently threw in the towel. Ouch! Believe us, when the market makes such a big move against the intermediate- to longer-term trend, it's tough to hold ground.

Stocks fell on Friday morning, led by sharp declines in the Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Financial sectors. On the earnings front, Deere shares fell 2% after the farm equipment maker posted mixed fiscal 3Q results and lowered its full-year earnings forecast. Bed Bath & Beyond plunged 40% after meme stock investor Ryan Cohen sold his 9.8% stake in the company. The Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 2.0%. Crude oil rose slightly to $91 per barrel, while gold fell $10 to $1761 per ounce.

Investors got a piece of good news about inflation when the July CPI came in cooler than expected. This is not surprising, as we have been talking about cratering commodity prices for months. The chatter on Wednesday was whether the Federal Reserve will raise the fed funds rate by 50 basis points or 75 in September. Most were looking for 75 before the CPI report. After the report, the S&P 500 rocketed 2.1%, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 soared 2.9%, the Nasdaq 100 surged 2.7%, and the S&P MidCap 400 popped 2.5%. It was the highest close since May 4 for the "500," the Nasdaq, and the QQQs, and the highest close for IWM since April 21.

The major indices successfully tested their 21-day exponential and 50-day simple averages last Tuesday and then catapulted higher over the rest of the week. Over the three-day span, the S&P 500 surged 5.3%, both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 exploded 7.2%, the S&P 400 MidCap tacked on 4.9%, and the Russell 2000 bolted higher by 4.4%. While only one of those days (Wednesday) was an 80% day (NYSE advancers/issues and NYSE up/volume), we have seen other indicators that show breadth thrusts. A thrust is almost always seen at intermediate- to long-term bottoms.

Economy & Jobs Fight Off Recession Risks

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are SVB Financial Group (SIVB); Splunk Inc (SPLK); Flex Ltd (FLEX); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) and the Focus List deletions are Discover Financial Services (DFS); NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI); Target Corp (TGT); Sempra Energy (SRE); Cloudflare Inc (NET).

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are SVB Financial Group (SIVB); Splunk Inc (SPLK); Flex Ltd (FLEX); TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) and the Focus List deletions are Discover Financial Services (DFS); NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI); Target Corp (TGT); Sempra Energy (SRE); Cloudflare Inc (NET).

Sustainable Impact Investing, or ESG investing, is gaining traction not only with Argus Research clients but also with the global investment community. BlackRock CEO Lawrence Fink, who oversees approximately $9 trillion in assets, announced in January 2020 that his firm would be investing in companies that are making progress on sustainability. He doubled down in his January 2021 letter, calling on company managements to disclose their plans for making their businesses "compatible with a net-zero economy" by 2050. As assets have flowed in over the past 40 years, Sustainable Impact Investing has evolved. The discipline, originally known as Socially Responsible Investing, focused at first on excluding companies that conducted business in South Africa, or participated in industries such as tobacco, alcohol, and firearms. Performance of these initial strategies lagged, and the approach has been modified. Now, instead of merely identifying industries to avoid, the discipline promotes "sustainable" business practices across all industries that can have an "impact" on global issues such as climate, hunger, poverty, disease, shelter, and workers' rights.

Stocks continued their turnaround on Thursday, with the major indices rising 2%-3%. Yes, we have seen recent sharp rallies before, all of which were in the confines of the correction/bear market -- and all led to new price lows. But as we have said of late, many breadth and sentiment indicators are extremely washed out and we have seen some short-term bullish breadth divergences. So maybe this time is different.

Stocks were mixed in volatile trading on Thursday morning, a day after Wednesday's sharp selloff, as the S&P continued to approach bear-market levels. Cisco shares fell 13%, despite above-consensus earnings, after the company offered disappointing guidance for the current fiscal fourth quarter. Kohl's also cut its full-year sales and earnings guidance, though the shares rose more than 2% after dropping sharply in the retail selloff on Wednesday. The Dow fell 0.7%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.2%. Crude oil rose slightly to $110 per barrel, while gold rose $31 to $1847 per ounce.

Yikes. It looked like it could be a very bad start to May, but a mid-afternoon rally on Monday (led by Communication Services, Energy, and Technology) saved the stock market. Talk about a great save -- and just as time was running out, with the major indices below their corrective and bear-market lows. Let's take a step back.

Innovation may be hard to define. But to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago - textiles, televisions, even automobiles to a large degree - have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy, even during the pandemic, has expanded to record levels. If U.S. corporations weren't innovating, creating new products (such as vaccines) and services and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would not be growing, and capital would not be flooding into the country. Consider that U.S. GDP was approximately $1 trillion in 1930 but was more than $24 trillion at the end of 2021. That's growth of 24-times. Meanwhile, the U.S. population has grown less than three-times during that time span, to 320 million from 120 million. The delta between GDP growth and population growth has been driven, in large part, by innovation.

Innovation may be hard to define, but (to borrow from former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart) you know it when you see it. The United States economy is full of innovation. It has to be. Manufacturing industries that dominated the economy decades ago -- textiles, televisions, even automobiles, to a large degree -- have moved overseas, where costs are lower. Yet the U.S. economy is at its largest point in history and still growing. If U.S. corporations were not innovating, creating new products and services, and moving into new markets and applications, the domestic economy would be contracting, not expanding. As well, capital would not be flooding into the country. Particularly at this juncture of the market and economic cycles, when uncertainty is high due to the pandemic and upcoming changes to interest rates by the Federal Reserve, we look to innovative companies to navigate the challenges successfully. At Argus, an 88-year-old independent research firm that has innovated a time or two in its long history, we have focused on four types of innovative companies: Industry Disruptors; First to Market; New Product Specialists; and Product & Process Perfectors. Here are some examples of companies that are featured in our Innovation Theme Model Portfolio.

Stocks were mixed on Wednesday morning as investors weighed another round of 1Q earnings reports and new housing market data. Netflix shares plunged more than 35% after the company posted a decline in net subscribers in 1Q and projected further losses in the second quarter, while Procter & Gamble rose more than 2% following better-than-expected fiscal 3Q results and an increase in its full-year sales guidance. On the housing front, the National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales fell 2.7% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.77 million units in March, below the Reuters consensus forecast of 5.80 million. The Dow rose 1.0%, the S&P rose 0.5%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil rose 1% to $103.50 per barrel, while gold fell $4 to $1956 per ounce.

Some of the more-obscure technical indicators we monitor remain bearish. Some are short-term in nature and some are intermediate-term indicators, dealing with breadth and also with price. We said on Monday that this week could be important for stocks -- and with Monday's price action, things are off to a bad start.

The rebound in consumer confidence stalled as inflation surged, COVID continued, and Russia invaded Ukraine. Prior to the pandemic, the Consumer Confidence Index was near cycle highs at 133 in February 2020, but plunged to 92.6 in May 2020 and 84.8 in August 2020. As COVID moderated in the summer of 2021, the index climbed to 125. But it never fully recovered as the Delta variant and then the Omicron variant increased daily case numbers. Then inflation rose and the invasion occurred. The latest reading, for February, was 110.5, down from 111.1 in January. It's worth reviewing the experience during the financial crisis, in 2007-2009. Back in 2007, confidence peaked at 112 in November, before falling sharply and consistently over the next year to a low of 25 in February 2009, as the bear market was bottoming. The index did not reclaim prior highs for another eight years. The current recovery has been much quicker, though the durability of the turnaround will depend on pandemic trends, the effectiveness of government stimulus, and post-pandemic behavioral changes by consumers. From an investment standpoint, we have found the bottom of the consumer confidence cycle to be a good (contrarian) time to buy stocks.

Argus has published its latest Portfolio Selector, which features its popular Focus List. Each month, Director of Research Jim Kelleher, CFA, surveys the team of Argus Research industry analysts for their timeliest recommendations out of the company's fundamental universe of approximately 500 stocks. The Focus List typically includes 30 stocks: turnover is high, as Director of Research Kelleher typically adds three or four new stocks per month. Below are the latest additions, all of which are rated BUY at Argus Research.

The Portfolio Selector features the Argus Focus List, a group of 30 "best idea" stocks generated and regularly updated by Argus' analysts and investment policy committee. It also includes the director of research’s monthly investment strategy column, stock recommendations and sector picks, economic forecasts, and an asset allocation model. This month, the Focus List additions are Linde Plc (LIN); Sysco Corp. (SYY); Target Corp (TGT); Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (VRTX) and the Focus List deletions are DuPont de Nemours Inc (DD); Zoetis Inc (ZTS); Lululemon Athletica inc. (LULU); Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN).

Bear Country: Our Monthly Survey of the Economy, Interest Rates, and Markets