Altimmune Stock Is Believed To Be Significantly Overvalued
- By GF Value
The stock of Altimmune (NAS:ALT, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $13.85 per share and the market cap of $514.5 million, Altimmune stock appears to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Altimmune is shown in the chart below.
Because Altimmune is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth.
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It is always important to check the financial strength of a company before buying its stock. Investing in companies with poor financial strength have a higher risk of permanent loss. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great way to understand the financial strength of a company. Altimmune has a cash-to-debt ratio of 118.31, which is better than 74% of the companies in Biotechnology industry. The overall financial strength of Altimmune is 7 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Altimmune is fair. This is the debt and cash of Altimmune over the past years:
It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. Altimmune has been profitable 0 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $8.2 million and loss of $1.91 a share. Its operating margin is -669.42%, which ranks worse than 68% of the companies in Biotechnology industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of Altimmune at 1 out of 10, which indicates poor profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Altimmune over the past years:
Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term stock performance of a company. A faster growing company creates more value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth of Altimmune is -76.6%, which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in Biotechnology industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 74%, which ranks better than 97% of the companies in Biotechnology industry.
One can also evaluate a company's profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, Altimmune's ROIC is -284.50 while its WACC came in at 10.48. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Altimmune is shown below:
In closing, The stock of Altimmune (NAS:ALT, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is poor. Its growth ranks better than 97% of the companies in Biotechnology industry. To learn more about Altimmune stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here. To find out the high quality companies that may deliever above average returns, please check out GuruFocus High Quality Low Capex Screener. This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
