Calculating The Fair Value Of Advance Auto Parts Inc (NYSE:AAP)
I am going to run you through how I calculated the intrinsic value of Advance Auto Parts Inc (NYSE:AAP) using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Also note that this article was written in March 2018 so be sure check the latest calculation for Advance Auto Parts here.
Crunching the numbers
I will be using the 2-stage growth model, which takes into account the initial higher growth stage of a company’s life cycle and the steadier growth phase over the long run. To begin, I pulled together the analyst consensus forecast of AAP’s levered free cash flow (FCF) over the next five years and discounted these figures at the cost of equity of 9.19%. When estimates weren’t available, I’ve extrapolated the average annual growth rate over the previous five years, capped at a reasonable level. This resulted in a present value of 5-year cash flow of US$2.23B. Want to know how I arrived at this number? Take a look at our detailed analysis here.
In the visual above, we see how how AAP’s earnings are expected to move going forward, which should give you some color on AAP’s outlook. Now we need to determine the terminal value, which is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. It’s appropriate to use the 10-year government bond rate of 2.8% as the steady growth rate, which is rightly below GDP growth, but more towards the conservative side. Discounting the terminal value back five years gives us a present value of US$6.64B.
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is US$8.86B. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value of $119.81, which, compared to the current share price of $118.55, we see that Advance Auto Parts is about right, perhaps slightly undervalued at a 1.05% discount to what it is available for right now.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company.
For AAP, I’ve put together three essential aspects you should look at:
Financial Health: Does AAP have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does AAP’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of AAP? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NYSE every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.
