Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Roper Technologies Inc (NYSE:ROP)
In this article I am going to calculate the intrinsic value of Roper Technologies Inc (NYSE:ROP) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. This is done using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not December 2018 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for Roper Technologies by following the link below.
See our latest analysis for Roper Technologies
The model
I use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a more stable growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next five years. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. The sum of these cash flows is then discounted to today’s value.
5-year cash flow estimate
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | $1.40k | $1.57k | $1.84k | $2.04k | $2.21k |
Source | Analyst x6 | Analyst x4 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 8.61% |
Present Value Discounted @ 10.07% | $1.27k | $1.29k | $1.38k | $1.39k | $1.37k |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$6.7b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after the five years. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.9%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 10.1%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$2.2b × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (10.1% – 2.9%) = US$32b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$32b ÷ ( 1 + 10.1%)5 = US$20b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is US$26b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of $256.14. Compared to the current share price of $286.66, the stock is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued at the time of writing.
Important assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Roper Technologies as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 10.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.01. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For ROP, I’ve compiled three relevant aspects you should look at:
Financial Health: Does ROP have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Future Earnings: How does ROP’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of ROP? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NYSE every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com.
