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Despite shrinking by AU$2.2m in the past week, Cazaly Resources (ASX:CAZ) shareholders are still up 75% over 3 years

·4 min read

One of the frustrations of investing is when a stock goes down. But when the market is down, you're bound to have some losers. The Cazaly Resources Limited (ASX:CAZ) is down 22% over three years, but the total shareholder return is 75% once you include the dividend. And that total return actually beats the market return of 16%. On top of that, the share price is down 14% in the last week. Importantly, this could be a market reaction to the recently released financial results. You can check out the latest numbers in our company report.

Since Cazaly Resources has shed AU$2.2m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.

View our latest analysis for Cazaly Resources

We don't think Cazaly Resources' revenue of AU$220,820 is enough to establish significant demand. We can't help wondering why it's publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). For example, investors may be hoping that Cazaly Resources finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

Companies that lack both meaningful revenue and profits are usually considered high risk. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress - and share price - will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some such companies go on to make revenue, profits, and generate value, others get hyped up by hopeful naifs before eventually going bankrupt.

When it last reported its balance sheet in June 2022, Cazaly Resources had cash in excess of all liabilities of AU$6.5m. While that's nothing to panic about, there is some possibility the company will raise more capital, especially if profits are not imminent. We'd venture that shareholders are concerned about the need for more capital, because the share price has dropped 7% per year, over 3 years. You can click on the image below to see (in greater detail) how Cazaly Resources' cash levels have changed over time.

debt-equity-history-analysis
debt-equity-history-analysis

It can be extremely risky to invest in a company that doesn't even have revenue. There's no way to know its value easily. What if insiders are ditching the stock hand over fist? I'd like that just about as much as I like to drink milk and fruit juice mixed together. It only takes a moment for you to check whether we have identified any insider sales recently.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Cazaly Resources' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Cazaly Resources hasn't been paying dividends, but its TSR of 75% exceeds its share price return of -22%, implying it has either spun-off a business, or raised capital at a discount; thereby providing additional value to shareholders.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Cazaly Resources shareholders are down 16% for the year. Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 4.6%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 14% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Cazaly Resources , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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