Earnings Beat: Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:MSBI) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.4% to US$26.36 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$72m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Midland States Bancorp surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.92 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for Midland States Bancorp
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Midland States Bancorp from four analysts is for revenues of US$304.2m in 2022 which, if met, would be a satisfactory 6.3% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$3.75, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$294.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.51 in 2022. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.
Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$33.25, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Midland States Bancorp analyst has a price target of US$35.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$32.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2022 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 8.4% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 8.1% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 7.6% per year. It's clear that while Midland States Bancorp's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Midland States Bancorp's earnings potential next year. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that Midland States Bancorp will grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$33.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Midland States Bancorp. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Midland States Bancorp going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Midland States Bancorp (1 is potentially serious!) that you should be aware of.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.