Gevo (NASDAQ:GEVO) investors are sitting on a loss of 89% if they invested three years ago
As every investor would know, not every swing hits the sweet spot. But really big losses can really drag down an overall portfolio. So take a moment to sympathize with the long term shareholders of Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ:GEVO), who have seen the share price tank a massive 89% over a three year period. That would be a disturbing experience. And over the last year the share price fell 51%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 20% in the last 90 days. We really hope anyone holding through that price crash has a diversified portfolio. Even when you lose money, you don't have to lose the lesson.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
View our latest analysis for Gevo
Gevo wasn't profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we'll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
In the last three years, Gevo saw its revenue grow by 21% per year, compound. That's well above most other pre-profit companies. So on the face of it we're really surprised to see the share price down 24% a year in the same time period. The share price makes us wonder if there is an issue with profitability. Sometimes fast revenue growth doesn't lead to profits. If the company is low on cash, it may have to raise capital soon.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
This free interactive report on Gevo's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 28% in the last year, Gevo shareholders lost 51%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 10% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Gevo better, we need to consider many other factors. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Gevo you should know about.
We will like Gevo better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
