Investors in QIAGEN N.V. (NYSE:QGEN) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.8% to close at US$35.75 following the release of its full-year results. Revenues of US$1.5b arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.18, an impressive 63% smaller than what broker models predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether analysts have changed their mind on QIAGEN after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from QIAGEN's 17 analysts is for revenues of US$1.57b in 2020, which would reflect a modest 3.0% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. QIAGEN is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$1.06 per share. Before this earnings report, analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.61b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.99 in 2020. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.
There's been no real change to the average price target of US$35.41, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. The consensus price target just an average of individual analyst targets, so - considering that the price target changed, it would be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on QIAGEN, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$43.00 and the most bearish at US$31.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
It can be useful to take a broader overview by seeing how analyst forecasts compare, both to the QIAGEN's past performance and to peers in the same market. It's pretty clear that analysts expect QIAGEN's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 3.0%, compared to a historical growth rate of 3.8% over the past five years. By way of comparison, other companies in this market with analyst coverage, are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that analysts still expect QIAGEN to grow slower than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us from these new estimates is that the consensus upgraded its earnings per share estimates, showing a clear improvement in sentiment around QIAGEN's earnings potential next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider market. Still, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple QIAGEN analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It might also be worth considering whether QIAGEN's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
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